VML - Vital Metals

[frugal.rock]

View attachment 114172

A good example of Bullish Divergence if it keeps playing out with price moving in an upward path!

Well just my take on a potential pissabolity.

Good one Rob.

 

[frugal.rock]

@rnr called it.

 

[barney]

Moving again today of the back of the AGM Presentation AGM Pres

Touched 036 briefly but plenty of Supply dropping in around the 034-036 level ... To be expected.

Needs to breach the 036 level with gusto before any real fireworks happen .... Sitting patiently

 

[barney]

VML has had a good move recently but is getting some Selling resistance at current levels which is to be expected.

I thought Thursday showed some fresh buying pressure and bought a handful more, but I may have been fooled given Fridays reverse push/selling from 038-035.

So potential short term holding pattern/possible retrace unless the traders get involved again or news.

Medium term I think the 4 cent area will eventually get broken but the Xmas -New Year period is a bit of a lottery.

035 and above happy holder. Under 033 ... Not so good

PS Hourly Chart.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

In a trading Halt..... news, not thirsty for capital, maybe

UPDATE

pending an announcement regarding a material offtake agreement.

 

[over9k]

I've been biting my nails on this one for a while. It seems to be on trend still... just.

 

[barney]

In a trading Halt..... news, not thirsty for capital, maybe UPDATE

I've been biting my nails on this one for a while. It seems to be on trend still... just.

No need to worry with these chaps . Possibly one of the safest Spec bets on the ASX. If it had continued to drop, i was going to buy more and I already have enough to fill a swimming pool lol.

They will need a little more capital not too far down the track as well but after this announcement I'll be surprised if we don't hit the magic 4 cent level ... maybe higher.

Announcement on a Material Off-take agreement. Getting a decent Offtake deal at this stage well before proof of production numbers etc is a massive vote of confidence in the Company ..... My bet is the Canadians will stick like glue to these ex-Lynas lads who know exactly what they are trying to do.

Still early days as well. 2 -4 years from now this could turn into something way bigger.

 

[over9k]

Here's the chart for anyone interested:

The trend looks ok, it's just very choppy. I'm cautiously optimistic, but emphasis on the cautiously. I'm holding but not buying any more.

 

[frugal.rock]

I happened to buy more only yesterday afternoon, doubling my holding in fact.
My fingers are crossed that my purchase yesterday falls within the record date used for any offtake entitlement.
A big bowl of wait and see now, unless anyone has experience with record dates and offtake dates?

(I guess I could look at Alkanes announcements and see what they did for ASM takeoff ? )

 

[over9k]

Mm it's broken trend once before though. I was a bit concerned at the time.

If it keeps pulling from here (even if it breaks trend & then rebounds) then we can be much more confident.

 

[barney]

I happened to buy more only yesterday afternoon, doubling my holding in fact.
My fingers are crossed that my purchase yesterday falls within the record date used for any offtake entitlement.

Great timing Rock ... You sure you're not a muso?

The Offtake is just an agreement for supply of the ore they intend to produce so any gain for all of us holders is simply the SP increasing so you are on board.

My guess is the Canadian Government (Saskatchewan Research Council) who will stump up $31 million towards a production plant will be front and centre with any negotiations on Offtake with VML.

VML have said previously they were in negotiation with "several" potential customers so this is just the first one ...

Also just my guess, that the SRC will want to secure as much meat from the eventual sandwich as possible so I wont be surprised to see a very positive "term sheet" announced.

Bearing in mind that whatever numbers are thrown up, this early stage and VML will be ramping up their production profile to as high as possible once the "Demonstration Phase" has been proven.

If they throw up any serious offtake numbers at this early demonstration stage, it will be a massive vote of confidence by both parties and super bullish. (All in my view of course ... lets see how Monday goes)

 

[frugal.rock]

The Offtake is just an agreement for supply of the ore they intend to produce so any gain for all of us holders is simply the SP increasing so you are on board.

Cheers Barney.
As you can see, not really following the FA on this, that's where I am trusting your judgement without any obligation. TA had me buying this yesterday and selling Bannerman today to cover it.

 

[barney]

Cheers Barney. As you can see, not really following the FA on this, that's where I am trusting your judgement without any obligation. TA had me buying this yesterday and selling Bannerman today to cover it.

Forgot to watch what BMN had been up to ..... Hooly Dooly, nice move.

In my view Rock, you just made a great trade. Sold Bannerman right near the top of a long spike, and bought VML which I suspect should move at least 20-25% on the Open Monday. I'm hoping for a little more than that to be honest but I am realistic about the fickle Spec end of play.

In a perfect world it will run 50% and close above 4.5 cents so I can afford more Xmas presents ... We shall see.

I appreciate you are trusting my judgement on the fundamentals I know you buy and sell off technicals so lets hope we're both correct!

 

[barney]

I'll be surprised if we don't hit the magic 4 cent level. Still early days as well. 2 -4 years from now this could turn into something way bigger.

In my view Rock, you just made a great trade... In a perfect world it will run 50% and close above 4.5 cents so I can afford more Xmas presents ...

Hey @frugal.rock and any other VML holders. Just to keep myself calm on a Friday arv i have to consider the possibilities of VML's first Offtake announcement for Monday's Open.

The Company described it as a material announcement. These guys don't over exaggerate so I expect some positive numbers.

Given this O/take deal is well before they have demonstrated the Ore sorter capabilities, there will no doubt be a few caveats of possible, potential and perceived future Production numbers before any final and meaningful figures can be fully determined a year or so from now.

However, Monday's Ann will give us a snapshot of how confident the SRC or whoever the deal is with, are with VML predictions and production forecasts. Given we are run by experienced Rare Earths lads, I am hoping that Monday sets a solid platform for what I see as a potential multi year Company expansion, and all things going to plan, a healthy and rising Share Price

PS. "Rock" .... My earlier suggestion that your immediate trade was a good one by selling BMN to buy more VML is shaping up ok on the market depth ... plus we have the whole weekend for Punters to muse over the situation.

We all live in hope! Lol ... (me) (Rock) (hopefully a few others)

 

[barney]

We all live in hope!

How's that saying go? Hope dies last! Lol .....

Anyway the Offtake announcement was positive as expected but with almost 12 months before first Production it's understandable that the price action was fizzy at best. Bit like some of those cheap sky-rockets I used to get on cracker night

Almost 70 million shares churned mainly around the 032-033 mark today so plenty of Sellers and Buyers (hopefully accumulators)

Groundhog day for the moment.

 

[over9k]

Big dip today. How you feeling barney?

 

[Austwide]

One of the Board resigned Mr Coulson. Hope that's not a management problem festering.

 

[barney]

Big dip today. How you feeling barney?

Lying if I said I'm enjoying it O9 lol ...

There would still be a lot of Traders sitting on profits after the recent runs up, plus we still have a lot of Punters who bought higher and could be feeling a few nervous twinges.

My last few shares I bought are under water but I bought a lot at lower prices so at this stage I'm sitting tight.

The weekly chart is not abnormal but I'd like to see the SP stay above 029 cents and the daily Volume have a breather before we hit the Xmas break.

Not too concerned as long as it doesnt do anything nasty.

One of the Board resigned Mr Coulson. Hope that's not a management problem festering.

Nah all good Aus, Phil Coulson is a major shareholder and an entrepreneur, not a mining dude. His reason for stepping aside is totally acceptable. There are better people to get the next stage under way than him. If he starts selling on market, that might signal something different of course. Personally don't expect to see that until the SP is much higher than current.

Weekly Chart musings.

 

[frugal.rock]

Phil Coulson is a major shareholder and an entrepreneur, not a mining dude.

Had the same thoughts based on his previous roles in broking firms.
Not sure what he was doing for the 6 years or so before Vital though.

Not worried about the current drawdown considering the speed with which it rose.

 

[over9k]

It broke trend before and then went right back to it. I'm currently breakeven if I sell now. Below 027 and it's time to get nervous.