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I don't hold Lynas and am only going off memory from a cursory interest perspective, so I might be wrong.Big drop for Lynas today, although some important insight into rare earths offered....
Lynas expecting an increase in rare earth demand heading into 2022. Seems that they were limited by COVID outbreaks at their processing facility and limited access to shipping.
They're expecting a stronger rare earths market over the next 3-4 years.
I'm not too familiar with the company but it seems like they're trying to establish an Australian rare earths processing facility at Kalgoorlie and have recently received a recommendation from the EPA.
According to their earnings call, their production has fallen victim to COVID, global shipping woes to and from Malaysia, limited environmental approvals from the Malaysian government, and the cost needed to transport waste from their Malaysian processing facility back to Australia.
Their Kalgoorlie strategy may be an attempt to mitigate any future disruptions.
VML seems to be ahead in that regards with a facility already under construction with government support.
There was also mention of a US project by 2025, but nothing of substance mentioned in the earnings call.
My interpretation is it's a project that isn't a definite go ahead, and therefore may be available to another competitor.
VML seems to be making inroads into US markets through private companies (UCore) as opposed to government.
For comparison's sake LYC produced approx 16 000t/pa of REO @ 6 billion AUD market val.
VML will be producing close to 2000t/pa of REO in 2022 @ 250 million AUD.
But form memory, the big issue with Malaysia, is the highly toxic residue.
So again from memory that toxic part of the process, which is in the early stages of the process, is going to be done in Kalgoorlie.
The later value adding stages of the process are still going to be done overseas.
Someone who has an interest in Lynas might be able to check out my memory and correct me, if I'm off the mark.
As with @aus_trader I'm not into Lynas, missed the boat early and have chosen VML as my RE exposure.