VML - Vital Metals

[sptrawler]

Its all according to the plan @aus_trader

They basically dig up and stockpile enough ore (in a couple of months) to feed the Extraction Plant in Saskatoon and that is where the profits start to be generated.

Don't quote me but I think 3months of "digging" will see them with enough ore till into 2023. I'll see if I can find the details of that later

Wobbly market looks like putting pressure on most stocks at the moment unfortunately

Where they are mining it is a very small operation, would the fact winter will be starting have a bearing?
I also would expect the mining operation to be scaled up, once the Saskatoon plant is commissioned and up to capacity, in 2022?

 

[barney]

Where they are mining it is a very small operation, would the fact winter will be starting have a bearing?
I also would expect the mining operation to be scaled up, once the Saskatoon plant is commissioned and up to capacity, in 2022?

Absolutely re the winter @sptrawler Starts to cool down after September

November - March they'd burn too much gas trying to keep warm, lol.

 

[aus_trader]

Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.

 

[sptrawler]

Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.

Hi Aus, as Barney says this is not going to be a sky rocket, more a slow burn up.

 

[barney]

Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.

Cheers M8.

My memory was almost correct (unusual ,lol) regarding the Mining part of the operation

 

[waterbottle]

Canadian miners welcome Liberal election victory

The question is whether Canada will 'become the critical mineral supplier the world needs'.

www.mining.com

Recent win for Trudeau might be positive news for VML

 

[waterbottle]

VML showing off their ore

 

[waterbottle]

Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...

 

[barney]

Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...

Possibly hesitation to see if/how many escrow shares will get dumped on the market.

I doubt there will too much issue and glad the shares will be out there. Onward and upward once Management show they prefer to hang on to their shares.

 

[waterbottle]

Possibly hesitation to see if/how many escrow shares will get dumped on the market.

I doubt there will too much issue and glad the shares will be out there. Onward and upward once Management show they prefer to hang on to their shares.

View attachment 130745

Are these released at COB?

 

[barney]

Are these released at COB?

Good question @waterbottle It would be at the Close on Wednesday I assume, but maybe fact check that.

If so, the Trading on Thursday might be interesting.

Personally I'd love to see a couple of 100 million share days where the Buyers meet the Sellers around the current levels

If we do see that I still don't think it will be Management doing the Selling (Just my opinion of course)

 

[aus_trader]

Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...

Agree, the escrow shares might be keeping a lid on VML as you guys said.

I think once resolved, VML will join the others in RE space and we'll have days like these...?

 

[barney]

I think once resolved, VML will join the others in RE space and we'll have days like these...?

Hope so Aus. The large amount of SOI can be a deterrent for punters, but in reality its the market cap which determined the value

At around $245 million with enough cash to fund them into Production, I think VML will definitely have its day in the sun

The magic $1 Billion dollar market cap is definitely in the sights of Management. i think within 3 years is a possibility

That would give us a share price of 24 cps assuming no further dilution. Plenty of fun and games before that happens of course.

 

[waterbottle]

The divergence is worrying though and I don't think it's as simple as waving-off the market... If you consider companies who have benefited from last 2-days' worth of rallies:

• AR3 --> Australian-based, low MC, likely to benefit from government stimulus targeting RE market
• ARU --> Australian-based, aiming for larger production @ start-up c.f. VML. Obviously being noticed by European car manufacturers given recent discussions, even though they are in the planning stage
• AAR --> American-based, likely to benefit from any US-based policies targeting RE market
• LYC --> Australian-based, already in production, already selling

I think VML's performance to-date has been spectacular and they've certainly met all their goals so far. But the lack of clarity about their future is a concern. The rationale behind starting small without binging on debt is arguably rational (some would argue otherwise given the low-interest environment that the world is likely to face for the next few years) but it may stifle growth.

The goal for the company is the development of the North T zone, but to what end? Who would the product be sold to? REEtec is far too small a company. I would have liked to see additional off-take agreements in 2021, given that they've now entered production. It begs the question: Why? Is the product not good enough? Are the volumes too small? Are no attempts being made? Are there better alternatives?

The recent acquisition also sparks some concern. The Kipawa project seems to have run into significant opposition from environmental activists in 2014, so much so that it was the reason Toyota's subsidiary pulled out. The feasibility study commissioned by Matamec (original owners) outlines a 2 year pre-mining phase before production is possible. Whether or not the same conditions will apply in 2021-22 won't be known until VML undertake their own due diligence...

 

[waterbottle]

Share price seems to have held up despite release of 500 million shares today + larger falls in other RE miners. Interesting.

 

[barney]

Share price seems to have held up despite release of 500 million shares today + larger falls in other RE miners. Interesting.

Yeah the VWAP was almost bang on 055 on pretty decent Volume.

Time will tell if the punters liquidating today were clever, or alternatively being foxed out of their shares

I certainly didn't sell any of mine

I'm backing back into the 6's not too far down the track (rose coloured glasses appropriately affixed )

 

[waterbottle]

China boosts rare-earth quota 20% to shield supply chain from U.S.

Increase raises output to record 168,000 tons for crucial high-tech materials

asia.nikkei.com

Looks like China is trying to maintain dominance - I do remember reading that they were also combining their rare earth producers into 2 entities.
Interesting to note that they won't purchase rare earths from Australian suppliers.

I take it to mean that they're is increasing demand for rare earths and they don't want to lose their monopoly....

 

[aus_trader]

China boosts rare-earth quota 20% to shield supply chain from U.S.

Increase raises output to record 168,000 tons for crucial high-tech materials

asia.nikkei.com

Looks like China is trying to maintain dominance - I do remember reading that they were also combining their rare earth producers into 2 entities.
Interesting to note that they won't purchase rare earths from Australian suppliers.

I take it to mean that they're is increasing demand for rare earths and they don't want to lose their monopoly....

Rare Elements prices have been rising and I think there are long term fundamentals driving it.

However it looks like China want to flood the markets and bring prices down, possibly with the share prices of Rare Earth stocks.

Once the prices start trading at sewerage bargain levels, they'll send agents to take control of the stocks at the management level by buying up stakes or pinning them down with funding/JV partnerships. This is not some conspiracy theory, this is how they've been operating if fellow citizens have kept awake last few years.

Before the China mob and agents who are dictated to have ASF membership accounts start replying, that a lot of the Aussie mining projects would not have been developed had it not been due to Chinese involvement and funding ; let's just say the level of management control and price gauging was probably wasn't worth the funding received. Projects would have been developed slowly, but so what ? They would have been able to realise much higher free market spot prices without being pegged down with cheap locked-in/(sucked-in) long term contracts.

Sorry I had to get that off my chest, so fellow Aussie citizens could peel off the wool over their eyes. If we sell off (JV off) every farm and mine and any other asset of national significance to China and the infiltrating agents, we might as well live under their dictatorship.

Now to some positive comments:

We can do something about it, especially if the State (esp.WA) and Federal Government could bring about changes that protect and keep treasures of national interest within the country and it's shareholders rather than foreign entities.

One such example is when the Government blocked the infiltration of another RE miner Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) a couple of years back:

 

[waterbottle]

@aus_trader i agree with what you've said and have read about their said business practices which are vicious although effective.
Good to see government intervening when it comes to national interests although they have been selective (property market).

VML seems to position itself as China-independent, which is important given current geopolitical tensions

 

[aus_trader]

@aus_trader i agree with what you've said and have read about their said business practices which are vicious although effective.
Good to see government intervening when it comes to national interests although they have been selective (property market).

VML seems to position itself as China-independent, which is important given current geopolitical tensions

Yes, I think VML will be somewhat immune to Chinese control given it's assets are on US/Canadian soils, but then again you never know as the shares are listed on the asx, therefore we could be approached as well with enticements like those presented to NTU.

I know it's probably beyond the scope of the discussion of the thread, but we have to take the national pride of our country and it's assets more seriously. There could be some friendly deals that create win-win situations and some ties with China such as free trade agreements etc. However when it comes to our farms, mines and universities, we have to be careful how much control we hand over. If not we'll be directly or indirectly under the control of CCP, whether we like it or not.