VML - Vital Metals

[waterbottle]

Continuing the drop, as are rare earth metal prices - take Neodymium prices which actually mirror VML's prices quite well.

Falling rare earth prices will unfortunately impact on VMLs potential (both in terms of profits and ability to grow). I think the share price is going to be ruled by the old adage "markets will stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent" or something to that effect....

 

[sptrawler]

Continuing the drop, as are rare earth metal prices - take Neodymium prices which actually mirror VML's prices quite well.

View attachment 124502

Falling rare earth prices will unfortunately impact on VMLs potential (both in terms of profits and ability to grow). I think the share price is going to be ruled by the old adage "markets will stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent" or something to that effect....

I guess the only thing in VML's favour is proximity to the U.S and the U.S wishing to deleverage its dependence on China's rare earths, I suppose we will have to see how it pans out.
If they go belly up it wont do a lot of damage to my bottom line, I haven't put the sheep station on it. ?

 

[waterbottle]

I guess the only thing in VML's favour is proximity to the U.S and the U.S wishing to deleverage its dependence on China's rare earths, I suppose we will have to see how it pans out.
If they go belly up it wont do a lot of damage to my bottom line, I haven't put the sheep station on it. ?

I don't think VML is staring down bankruptcy - after all they have managed to raise $43 million in cash and by their projections that should keep them going until the 2nd half of 2022.
The problem is going to be moving towards stage 2 of their plan. They've just started drilling the North T zone and are expecting core sample assays in Q3 2021. Even if those samples are favorable, the real question will be if the mine is economical at the (presumably lower, given the trend) rare earth prices. If not, it might mean another cap raise.

 

[barney]

the real question will be if the mine is economical at the (presumably lower, given the trend) rare earth prices.

VML are as well placed as any hopeful RE Co. but there are a couple of important milestones yet to be announced before either the speculators return, or the broader Market invests seriously in the Company.

In the short term, the deal with REEtec still needs to be signed off on. The Market will react positively once that news eventuates, but without confirmation of their acceptance of VML's carbonate sample, market players will likely remain on the fence.

On top of that, the political aspect of the Chinese dominance in the RE market will always create problems until a Company/Companies big enough to affect world supply can put more pressure on the Chinese players and the RE pricing.

VML could be one of those Companies down the track, but at this stage we are still a minnow looking for a bigger bowl to swim in.

Once REEtec give VML the nod (hopefully soon), they can get their extraction plant built (next door to the Canadian Gov's Processing plant being built in Saskatoon)

If all the above is achieved, they will be able to ramp up to multiples of their pilot production numbers really (really) quickly

VML could easily end up a billion dollar company simply by following their game plan, but that is obviously not going to happen overnight.

In the short term, if the 5 cent price level holds for a while I'll be happy enough until we get the next round of important news.

 

[waterbottle]

VML are as well placed as any hopeful RE Co. but there are a couple of important milestones yet to be announced before either the speculators return, or the broader Market invests seriously in the Company.

In the short term, the deal with REEtec still needs to be signed off on. The Market will react positively once that news eventuates, but without confirmation of their acceptance of VML's carbonate sample, market players will likely remain on the fence.

On top of that, the political aspect of the Chinese dominance in the RE market will always create problems until a Company/Companies big enough to affect world supply can put more pressure on the Chinese players and the RE pricing.

VML could be one of those Companies down the track, but at this stage we are still a minnow looking for a bigger bowl to swim in.

Once REEtec give VML the nod (hopefully soon), they can get their extraction plant built (next door to the Canadian Gov's Processing plant being built in Saskatoon)

If all the above is achieved, they will be able to ramp up to multiples of their pilot production numbers really (really) quickly

VML could easily end up a billion dollar company simply by following their game plan, but that is obviously not going to happen overnight.

In the short term, if the 5 cent price level holds for a while I'll be happy enough until we get the next round of important news.

Good point RE: REEtec, I had assumed that this deal was already agreed upon!

In regards to the rare earth market in general, I don't think VML needs to get to the point where it displaces China. The political ships have already set course and are moving as much high tech manufacturing away from China in the interest of national security. This is the case for Australia, US, Europe, and I believe will be so for many years to come (unless China changes their behaviour but I don't see any reason why they would).
IMO this means that Western governments will take anything they can get from non-China companies, which VML falls into.

 

[barney]

Good point RE: REEtec, I had assumed that this deal was already agreed upon!

IMO this means that Western governments will take anything they can get from non-China companies, which VML falls into.

Just to clarify my comments re the REEtec arrangement

A Definitive Offtake Agreement was Announced in February, this is correct

As part of that Definitive O/T, the following was stated by the Company:

The rights and obligations under the definitive Offtake Agreement are subject to both Vital Metals and REEtec proceeding with a final investment decision ("FID") for the development of their respective commercial plants (with raw material sourced from Vital) and completion of the agreed stages as set out in the announcement dated 21 December 2020.

There is no problem, but there is a bit of paperwork etc to line up before the FID becomes a reality, in reality

Organising the complete process to run smoothly and on time is a big job. So far Geoff and the boys have done a great job in getting the timing spot on, but I'll be a lot happier once the FID is signed/sealed, and the Extraction Plant is under construction etc,

A 12kg sample was sent to REEtec in March. I'm unsure of whether we will get an announcement on their actual acceptance of the product, or whether we might just get an announcement regarding the above FID when the appropriate time comes, which would in essence mean the same thing.

I think the sliding SP tends to make we shareholders a bit "impatient" lol. If the SP was ticking higher, I'd probably stop reading the Company announcements so closely and watch TV instead

 

[barney]

I'll be a lot happier once the FID is signed/sealed, and the Extraction Plant is under construction etc,

That's another important piece of information. Now for the FID with REE tec and its game on.

 

[waterbottle]

That's another important piece of information. Now for the FID with REE tec and its game on.

View attachment 124601

Great location too! And the plant is being constructed at the Landlord's expense to spec (that'll be interesting to see).

I recommend watching the webinars posted by the SRC - they have developed methods to isolate rare earths from a concentrate, so proximity to this facility is key.

Hopefully VML retain their lead.

 

[barney]

And the plant is being constructed at the Landlord's expense to spec (that'll be interesting to see).

Indeed at WB. Its not exactly a small space either at 40,000 square feet.

They plan to be in the building on 1st November this year

That gives the builders a whisker over 5 months to construct

Its looks a tight timeline but the VML boys have delivered on every one of those so far


SP has had a small bump today but I still think the Final Investment Decision from REEtec is the news we need to get it moving again

Now that VML have committed to the Extraction Plant build, REEtec have more incentive to finalise the deal.

Waiting (slightly impatiently)

 

[barney]

Waiting (slightly impatiently)

Pre- Open Trading Halt (Price sensitive) Announcement not yet available. TH's always make me nervous

Good news could involve the FID with REEtec Bad news could involve NO FID with REEtec Fingers crossed at this point


ps (5 minutes later) Disregard the above. TH re Exploration results. One would assume good results otherwise no need for a TH.

The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of an announcement regarding the exploration results or prior to the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 26 May 2021

 

[waterbottle]

Pre- Open Trading Halt (Price sensitive) Announcement not yet available. TH's always make me nervous

Good news could involve the FID with REEtec Bad news could involve NO FID with REEtec Fingers crossed at this point


ps (5 minutes later) Disregard the above. TH re Exploration results. One would assume good results otherwise no need for a TH.

The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of an announcement regarding the exploration results or prior to the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 26 May 2021

Fingers crossed....

 

[barney]

Announcement due in about 15 minutes

Not sure how much it will move the SP, but hopefully it will give a chance to clean out a few of the fringe holders who can Sell into any rise

All we need now is REEtec to confirm they want at least 5,000t per annum and we can get a bit of security into the Stock

 

[barney]

This is a better result than even I expected .... Serious looking deposit

 

[waterbottle]

This is a better result than even I expected .... Serious looking deposit


View attachment 124889

Massive upgrade.

Can't find the announcement though.

Couple this with news from the US that Biden is hoping to source EV materials from other Western countries and this is BIG

 

[barney]

Can't find the announcement though.

Be up in about 1 minute

 

[barney]

Resource upgrade

Hope that works

 

[Dona Ferentes]

isn't price discovery a wonderful thing?

 

[barney]

Back up near the Cap Raise price at the moment. Probably plenty of Sellers around this level.

Hopefully we can burn a few million off the register today.

 

[barney]

Plenty of Punters cashing in their chips it seems. Currently .057 Not unexpected.

Need to burn the firewood to create the coals of course. Still early days for this minnow.

 

[barney]

VML has Bots, lol. Better than having measles I guess

The Bots are chipping in around the .056 level so I'll take that as accumulation until the 6 million on offer at .055 gets wiped

The gap at .055 got filled yesterday so hopefully that level will hold now till further news.

Further assay results of the remaining holes is expected not too far down the track. Watching the paint dry in the meantime.