VIL - Verus Investments

pilots said:

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.

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What the hell do you base that on Pilots did you not read the press release and compare this huge tenement to all the other tiny tenements along side it that all came up trumps.....

Your completely entitled to your opinion, but youve just given blatent advice, and it could possibly turn out very wrong...

Man with that stupid and blatant advice you could cost yourself a huge amount of money if it went up 40c and he decided to sue your **** off.....youd be 110% liable ....id retract that if I was you...

condog said:

What the hell do you base that on Pilots did you not read the press release and compare this huge tenement to all the other tiny tenements along side it that all came up trumps.....

Your completely entitled to your opinion, but youve just given blatent advice, and it could possibly turn out very wrong...

Man with that stupid and blatant advice you could cost yourself a huge amount of money if it went up 40c and he decided to sue your **** off.....youd be 110% liable ....id retract that if I was you...

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Condog, If they have NOTHING you could all so have LOST all your money as well, feel free to sue me any time that you have lost any money, on any stock, on the share market.

Yes there is alot of ramping on HC, but there is both up and down ramping. The guys who are doing that are traders in for a quick profit.

If you are in for the long haul the fundamentals look extremely good, IMO.

DYOR, etc., as I have, and you can make an informed decision on whether to hold or sell

GaryS said:

Yes there is alot of ramping on HC, but there is both up and down ramping. The guys who are doing that are traders in for a quick profit.

If you are in for the long haul the fundamentals look extremely good, IMO.

DYOR, etc., as I have, and you can make an informed decision on whether to hold or sell

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A lot of the stuff posted on HC about VIL is just ridiculous and yes Gary it goes both ways, I actually threw a few posts in amongst the craziness myself even though I promised myself I wouldn't, if you do your own research and make your own decisions then there is no one to blame but yourself for your actions.

Putty7 said:

A lot of the stuff posted on HC about VIL is just ridiculous and yes Gary it goes both ways, I actually threw a few posts in amongst the craziness myself even though I promised myself I wouldn't, if you do your own research and make your own decisions then there is no one to blame but yourself for your actions.

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Putty7, you have hit the nail on the head, it is about time we have to be accountable for our own actions, back when GDN,CVI, CAZ was being ramped I was told many times that I was going to have nothing after the lawyers was finished with me. It is one of the ways the rampers try to shut the down rampers up.

How can you be be taken to court over posting on a forum? That's a bit ridiculous, people should be responsible for their own actions

pilots said:

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.

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The Ramp team at ASF aint doing to bad either, im surprised the Mods have let this thread go as far as its gone.

So_Cynical said:

The Ramp team at ASF aint doing to bad either, im surprised the Mods have let this thread go as far as its gone.

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So_Cynical I see you still seeking revenge for some strange reason...why dont you grow up and take off......please come back when you actually know what your talking about and have something meaningful to contribute to the dialogue.....

You have made two posts in this thread and neither have contained any information of any value to readers....I suggest you show some restraint, intelligence and emotional maturity and just plain old grow up.....

There is a monumental difference between ramping and discussing..... to my knowledge everyone in this thread has made it extremeley clear its their opinion.... I and others have posted almost two pages bagging managements ambiguity in their announcment.... If you bothered to read it rather then take sheap shots like this rubbish you might actually not look so unintelligent by writing this rediculous and defamatory statement.....

If the mods should act on anything it is the extreme immaturity and garbage you are displaying by following my threads and making rediculous and defamatory remarks...

Fellow VIL people I apologise you need to read this garbage... I have contact Joe with details and hopefully he will put some major pressure on So_Cynical to decist with this rubbish.

pilots said:

Condog, If they have NOTHING you could all so have LOST all your money as well, feel free to sue me any time that you have lost any money, on any stock, on the share market.

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Pilots i fully accept that...your staement does not affect me as i am not holdong or selling VILO....

But man you got to be careful making suchj balatent advice like that with no disclaimers in this day and age....

You go for it if you wish....I agree everyone should be 100% accountable for own actions....but just do yourself a favour and be careful issueing blanket advice or whatever to sell.....

All he best pilots...etal

Any accusations of ramping are plainly unfounded ...go back and read pages 5 and 6....almost all of it is critical by the same people who are possible being accused of ramping.....

LEts get back to discussing the stock and any information that comes to hand...

pilots said:

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.

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correct- much of garbage there is ramping and time well wasted reading... however there is some extremely informative and interesting discussion as well..

Did you read the announcements??.. These guys have reasons to be excited. Nothing wrong with taking some profit, but it looks very promising.

A few comments on this thread:

pilots said:

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.

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Please do not advise others to buy or sell any stock. This could be considered financial advice and is not permitted on forums such as ASF.

To all thread participants:

Feel free to present any fundamental or technical analysis you may have (either bullish or bearish) or to discuss any publicly available information that pertains to this company.

But there is no need for insults or personal attacks under any circumstances, so lets keep the discussion civil.

Thank you all for your co-operation.

condog said:

I have been a long time holder / trader and have only recently got out of COE.
COE's fortunes have only just recently begun to turn more favourable...and it has been choppy for a long time, often getting far ahead of itself , eg its 71c price spike ....

COE sp of 50c ish, market cap of 156M
VIL sp of 3c last week market cap of <20M ...Capex for this project is very low because VIL own 50% and GGP are the working party....GGP at last check had a similar market cap and m,ultiple projects with $6M cash, plus cash flows....

So continued work on Fausse Point is able to continue for some time before either needs to go requesting cash...

COE is certainly beginning to look very attractive again....and is in a different class, because unless it finds a major reserve its share price is unlikely to go up 10+ times, where as Fausse point on all probability if this side of the salt dome is remotely like the other side is more then likely to produce a very significnat result for the very small VIL

Look at the finds along the othr side of the dome, then compare those too the tenement size of VIL / GGP...only one of those tenements came up dry, and to my knowledge its been under explored....plus theres 80 new acres announced yesterday....so VIL tenement is approx same size as 6 of those other producing tenements......

Now do the maths on why people are excited....and even if this well is not perfect..... theres massively positive and significnat indicators ....plus huge expanses of other areas to drill.... Even if this one is commercial, it is likely they will drop a lot more wells...and possible / probable the reserves will continue to pop up....

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Thats an average tenement oil strike of 2.1MMOB plus the gas for the salt dome....
And yet most those producing tenements are a fraction of the size of the GGP/VIL tenement
CEO has 156M market cap with 1.9M P50 (P2) which = 50% * 1.9M BO = 0.8MMBO

VIL only has market cap around $20- $25 M, and if any major find that reflects the average for the area may have an estimated 2.1MMBO of P1 plus gas = 90% * 2.1M BO, possibly up to 7.5MMBO and possible worst case of 0.5MMBO which looks very unlikely... so on face value it looks possible VIL may soon either now or with more exploration have more oil and cas than COE ????

This is of course all hypothetical estimated projections so DYOR and seek expert advice...opinion only....yes i own and to intend to profit from both VIL and GGP

Then theres the gas which they may or may not have already found...but it seems ver likely they did....it only requires 1.6 mile of piping...Piping ranges from $30,000 to $100,000 per inch mile....but given cheap labour and recession in the US im inclined to think say $50,000 or so.... They can put in a pretty significant 1.6 mile pipe for a few $100K....and they are in business....

Now im not a mathamatician, although i do love maths, but when one does the probability of a find and its size for VIL, it gets a little exciting....
Hence the excitement with VIL

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Thanks for the detailed reply condog, I've only started looking at the drivers of resource/energy share values over the last year or so and the value of exploration tenemants is something I'm still having trouble with.

Much easier for me to put a value on cash and production from reserves.

I'll probably wait until an announcement comes out saying this is a commercial find before taking a proper sized position in this. There's a lot of difference between a hole in the ground and a producing well.

The options also seem a little overpriced given the headstock would have to more than double for the options to be in the money and your only getting 4x the leverage. To each their own though.

suhm said:

Thanks for the detailed reply condog, I've only started looking at the drivers of resource/energy share values over the last year or so and the value of exploration tenemants is something I'm still having trouble with.

Much easier for me to put a value on cash and production from reserves.

I'll probably wait until an announcement comes out saying this is a commercial find before taking a proper sized position in this. There's a lot of difference between a hole in the ground and a producing well.

The options also seem a little overpriced given the headstock would have to more than double for the options to be in the money and your only getting 4x the leverage. To each their own though.

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Suhm = some very valid points

Its the old risk reward trade off.....

If your willing to take the calculated risk prior to the actual confirmation well, obviously the risk is tremendeslly higher....

Having said that though sometimes its not always a risk of a no find (but that can happen) , in a highly prospective regions its more likely to be how many drills will it take to hit, ie its mre an issue of cash burn rate.

The majority of the gain is in the initial find, then theres a heap when production cash flow commences, more if they become cash flow +ve, more when they strart there next drilling....but IMO the best gains with defintely the highest risk are on the initial finds of new resources......thats when the majority of an assets value is priced in and its when the share holders have the most leverage to the new asset.....

Each investor has to understand his her own risk profile and thats great that youv'e weighed that up...... There is always a possiblity of coming up dry....

In the case of Fausse Point IMO Im confident they will make a significant find, IMO its more a case of whether its this well the next, the next etc....My assumptions are based on the adjoining results and the fact that the salt dome has likely penetrated the hdrocarbon forming zones, meaning that IMO its possible to have similar hydrocarbons on both sides of the dome...GGP announcment dated 12th Jan says the results "includes several zones of interest
with some showing good permeability, porosity and oil/condensate in the sample cores." this to me was a hugely positive indicator, as it indicates the salt dome has more the likely split the hydorcarbon producing layers rather then coming up on one edge of the formations...

I have revised my calcultaions of my estimates because of the tenement size compared tot those on the other side of the zone....

My new calcs for my use and your laughter.....

For ease of calculation I have simply included gas equivelents as BO.

IMO Worst case = no find of commercial yet = sp to hover around 3.5c to 4.0c +or- 0.5c, initally selling pressure would obviously hammer this...
( worth more with +ve gas indicators now then prior to drilling)

IMO My estimated outcome to base my possible upside if a find is confirmed (not necesarily form this well) = Av find on other side @2.1MmBO * 50% int * 5 times tenement size = 10.5 * 50% = 5.25 MMBO at net $30 P/BO @ 60% recovery possibility = $94.5M total over say a 5 year life = $18.9 free cash flow p.a. on $25M company..... at PE of 8 = new mcap of 151M at PE of 9 = mcap of 170M using net earnings... = sp of 0.465 very roughly
Bear in mind that sp may take further wells aloong the tenement even after the first positive find to boost confidence this size resource exists....so it wont be over night....

IMO Best case, very unlikely scenario, but possible = 5 * 3.5MmOB *50% int at $40 net PBO *75% recovery at PE of 9 to gross Earnings... = $53M p.a with new mcap of $472M = $1.28 sp

So IMO on the first well that implies both commercially viable gas and oil I would be expecting a very volatile share price very roughly around 21c or so....placing a slightly discounted P50 or 2C value on the rest of the tenement for a similar resource....
IMO if big investors became involved thats the way theyd price it....but with so many small holders and traders, volatility is assured...

As i said these are only my calcs for your enjoyment...they are in no way, verified, implied to be accurate...... But thats my 2c for this morning...

These calcs have not factored in any capital raising for required infrastructer for other reasons...capital raising will reduce those sp's proportionally

ALWAYS - DYOR and SEEK EXPERT ADVICE....not kidding...

Wow this is interesting to watch unfold , confirmation of multiple zones and the price drops....providing smart people with opportunities to buy.....while the lemmings all jump off the cliff togehter....

Now there my friends is why some people make it in the share market and others fail.... they follow the herd instead of using there head.....

Last week on the sniff of an opportunity these idiots went crazy trying to buy and now they have confirmation of hydrocarbons and huge gas pressures that stopped and slowed drillign they are selling....and beacuse they have to wait a few days while the conservative and guarded announcments keep flowing they all run for the hills....

They have cased to the bottom and leased 80 extra premium priced acres....they have jumped out of their skin in the previous announcment and indicated that we have the best outcome investors could possibly have wished for...

Mark my words: (but DEFINITELY - DO NOT act or make decisions based on them)....

In my opinion VIL has found gas and oil.....and they have confirmed the formations they where looking for exist on this side of the salt dome....
Irrespective of whether this well is commercial or not IMO this stock will rocket when it gets its first commercial well...

In my opinion there will be an early announcment to cease testing and start production.... I am still not sure they have oil in commercial quantities, but its hard to concieve they have insufficient gas to proceed.....I base that on the rediculous pressures and copius mud found, conditioned and circulated in the drilling process....

The company has confirmed the hydrocarbons present, there latest two announcments are now beginning to mention oil more and more.....

The VIL announcment says it all......read between the lines.....they know they are onto something but for legal reasons and conservative decision making processes, they cannot anounce there chickens till they are served up in a snack box.....

We are dealing with clearly some very conservative and guarded operators at GGP.....

I cannot believe the stupidity........

The fact they are looking to test the primary zone and then if its all good set up for production without testing the rest says a lot (without saying it) for what they found in the primary zone in my opinion. 1.6 miles of pipe to lay and plug in won't take long to do I wouldn't think, all going to plan we could have a well online by the middle of the year, a second one drilled and maybe a third in that time. Question is paying for it, if the SP doesn't hit .10c on the inground volumes and flow results of the first well we may have to face a Cap Raising, if that happens it puts the options in a bit of jeopardy I would think.

Hard to believe traders are selling out at this stage. I'll wait for a few days and see what the price is like and may buy some more. Right now I'm trying not to buy some @ 4c.

Mr McIlwain rang me in response to my complaint...about jan 12th announcment

We know everything they do...until testing reveals exact outcome...

But they are very optimistic and that was intended to be expressed in the Jan 12th announcment, and is reflected in the decisions and other items referred to in that announcment...

VIL is very happy with signs so far , pressures, the formations etc as stated in the announcment....

So yes folks it was positive, it was meant to be very positive , but nothing is known or decided till testing is done....

DICLAIMER - DYOR, SEek expert advice, do not act or make decisions based on this information...I own , intend to trade and hold....

So for thsoe that have more then 10 days of patience...signs are very positive ....

Putty7 said:

The fact they are looking to test the primary zone and then if its all good set up for production without testing the rest says a lot (without saying it) for what they found in the primary zone in my opinion. 1.6 miles of pipe to lay and plug in won't take long to do I wouldn't think, all going to plan we could have a well online by the middle of the year, a second one drilled and maybe a third in that time. Question is paying for it, if the SP doesn't hit .10c on the inground volumes and flow results of the first well we may have to face a Cap Raising, if that happens it puts the options in a bit of jeopardy I would think.

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Yes they are very happy that the formations they wanted are presnet...its just the quantities and qualities that need testing............

There ultimately will be a cap raising somewhere when or if a commercial decision is made.....what form that comes in and who its offered to is unsure....my guess is it will be institutional....

The moment any possible announcment of a commercial venture hits my radar Im sending them an email requesting any cap raisng be offered to all investors equally , rather then the institutions getting a discounted bite of our cherry....and you all should do the same if that eventuates....

I think they were smart getting the extra land to drill before announcing that the well is commercially viable.