VIL - Verus Investments

[Putty7]

I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.

 

[Tommo_Aus]

I'd be interested to see the response to your email, granted they give you permission to post it in a public forum.

 

[condog]

I'd be interested to see the response to your email, granted they give you permission to post it in a public forum.

fax them or email them asap as the more they get the more inclined they will be to give us a very fast proper update

 

[condog]

No response from either GGP or VIL, and no acknowledgement of email recipt yet...
It seems our impatient traders are thinning out and theres reasonable buying pressure mounting again, unlike yesterday and this morning.....

Two more for you to look into and discuss folks....these are DEFINITELY not reccomendations but merely raising them for interest sake why we all wait for the blessed information or otherwise.... cause i got inundated by PM's asking me what they where....... TON and EXE..... ive made reasonably detailed comments in both threads...DYOR and seek expert advice...please do not discuss in here... respect VIL ...go take a look and see what you think....theres a lot of reading in analysing these types of stocks properly, but the risk assessment is a lot more accurate...

Till we meet again....cheers..

 

[rabbit59]

I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.

VERY VERY lucky for me, i got my finger in at .039 great!

anyhow, good luck and as condog said previously, PLEASE DYOR this is all an exploration company, there are alot of variables, and risks involved.

Good luck to all investors....

 

[Putty7]

I was in the line up to top up at .039c but lifted it to .04c just before they ran out, whether it drops further who over the day knows but the opportunity was there.

Good to see the time to proof read that was well spent, nice pick up Rabbit, I was in a bit slow prefering to watch rather than act until it settled down. 3rd time I have topped up on a low but will settle in for the road ahead now.

It appears for the moment Skyquakes ratsack has worked with the SP quieting down considerably today.

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Hi guys,

I've been looking from afar at this stock for a while and have been waiting for the wirelog results to be announced before I take up a position, however after looking at the stocks behaviour today I feel I will take up a holding first thing tomorrow morning as the Chairman of Verus seems very confident of having a commercial discovery of oil and gas.

With the FPO's at 4.2c and the options at 0.9c I think I'll just go for the options as with 5 full months to go until expiry I feel that with a commercial find the options should reach the 10c strike price easily, especially with more wells in the pipeline.

I just hope they don't have an announcement before the opening in the morning as I've left my decision to buy pretty late in proceedings.

If anyone else would like to comment on the options it would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers from Merv

 

[Sainter]

Swervin,
There are two ways to make money from the options-flog them off to some mug before expiry ('pass the parcel') or hope VIL break through 10c exercise price which is still a long way off (which is what you state). The former is gambling, the latter is hoping, at least in my book given additional wells would probably be needed to realistically get above 10c! Either could work, but I would and did recently choose VIL over VILO as it removes the time pressure from this equation.

I only hold a few, so VIL is not material in the financial scheme of things for me.

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Thanks Sainter,

I suppose it will be a gamble with the options but I feel that the time factor shouldn't be an issue as if this first well exceeds the best case scenario's that I read in the October presentation then the FPO's should be higher than 10c pretty much after the flow testing is completed which is only a month away.

What I will be gambling on is that the Chairman of Verus is correct in his statement where he said something along the lines of that "It's the best result that shareholders could have hoped for".

I'll probably get it completely wrong and come up short but I can only go on the information that the company has reported so far and it looks to me to be the better buy.

We'll definitely find out in a couple of weeks one way or the other!

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Well its safe to say your not alone, there are many of us waiting on concrete results to be fed through. At this stage VIL has been beating around the bush with somewhat ambiguous statements, there are subtle hints at results but no firm indication as to the commercialisation possibilities of the project.

Who knows, there could be an announcement at pre-open tomorrow... or there could be an announcement in several weeks, it all depends on how much analysis they do before reporting their findings.

 

[Sainter]

Given the oppies have only 5.5 months, it comes down to how many wells can be drilled in that time to support 10+ cents. These wells usually take a bit of time to line up, so there may not be another drilled/completed/assessed before June (my uninformed guess). So will just this one hole be good enough to push the price above 10c? That is the key question the option holders have to weigh up if they are not planning to offload before exercising.
I tend to look at options in relation to differential between strike price +option cost vs heads cost. IN the current case, 10+~0.8c =10.8c versus 4.2c for the heads, or a 6.6c differential which is due in <6 months. Now I accept the leverage angle, but in my simple mind, you're paying >150% premium of the head cost (i.e. >4.2c*1.5 = 6.3c) for a <6 month loan. If you really believe the company, why not borrow money at 8% p.a. to buy the heads (e.g. offset against a home loan which is how I borrow when I choose to) if you can and remove the expensive premium and the time constraint? Yes, the potential downside is greater, but if you really believe in the company, then it makes more financial sense to do it that way, at least to me it does.
Cheers!

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Thanks for the advice Sainter and Thommo, I probably should have mentioned that I'm only going to be investing a few grand so I suppose that makes me lean towards the options more because of the increased leverage. Anyway guys I hope I can get in in the morning before the announcement. Goodnight

 

[condog]

Given the oppies have only 5.5 months, it comes down to how many wells can be drilled in that time to support 10+ cents. These wells usually take a bit of time to line up, so there may not be another drilled/completed/assessed before June (my uninformed guess). So will just this one hole be good enough to push the price above 10c? That is the key question the option holders have to weigh up if they are not planning to offload before exercising.
I tend to look at options in relation to differential between strike price +option cost vs heads cost. IN the current case, 10+~0.8c =10.8c versus 4.2c for the heads, or a 6.6c differential which is due in <6 months. Now I accept the leverage angle, but in my simple mind, you're paying >150% premium of the head cost (i.e. >4.2c*1.5 = 6.3c) for a <6 month loan. If you really believe the company, why not borrow money at 8% p.a. to buy the heads (e.g. offset against a home loan which is how I borrow when I choose to) if you can and remove the expensive premium and the time constraint? Yes, the potential downside is greater, but if you really believe in the company, then it makes more financial sense to do it that way, at least to me it does.
Cheers!

I hear what your saying and totally agree with the way your calculating if it was based on a mature company..... but the leverage here is rediculous and you shouldnt be in VIL if you just want it to double....

With these small companies with highly leverage potential resources its not a slow incremental rise....they either find the resource and confirm it or part of it or they dont, so the rise is sudden and major, when or if it comes....

On that basis and this is not advice I see 5.5 months as a long time for GGP to drop several holes and one would imagine from the excitement of vErus announcment the program will be rapid rather then slow if this is not the well they wanted...

VIL if it finds the results anticipated by both the company and most its shareholders will hopefully IMO andf in the companies own presentation looking for at least a 10 fold increase.... not 6.6c

That wont happen until they prove their worth with confirmed data..... which could be a few days or could be in another well..... due to the ambiguity of the recent announcments who knows....

In terms of dropping wells, all approvals are in place and GGP would possibly drop another one within 4-6 weeks....TBOMK drill targets are already identified..... if this is not the one they are after... there are plenty of rigs nearby due to activity on multiple nearby locations...so just hope in the cue which may be as little as a week or two....

Similarly right now I assume they already know whether they need another well or not...if they do the process would have already started for locating and booking a drilling crew , if not yipee....

These guys have been around the traps long enough to know what they are dealing with here , without waiting for fulll data analysis.....they for whatever reason are just too legalistic, scared etc are not telling us... In any case they would at least have enough indicators to be making rapid preparations for another well or silently celebrating while waiting for confirmation from production testing...

 

[skyQuake]

For those seriously considering the options, please read:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274

If I were managment I'd let the oppies lapse before releasing anything that would shoot it above 10c :

Implied volatility is something like 75%

 

[condog]

For those seriously considering the options, please read:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274

If I were managment I'd let the oppies lapse before releasing anything that would shoot it above 10c :

No offence as I know you where just commenting, but...

You cant do that or you get banned by ASIC for a long time, and investors will avoid you like the plague.....public companies need public money....and the only bargaining tool they have is faith / trust in managment....

I dont think GGP or VIL meant to be ambiguous and contradictory of each other, but in doing so there are many people who will have lost a little or a lot of faith in them to he 100% up fornt, honest and timely...

Im very annoyed, but willing tostay invested for the moment...any more occurances like this and id be out... there are too many other great companies out there with huge upside to bother with companies that willingly or unwillingly appear to hold back information form investors....

PS... No response from or acknowledgment of reciept of emails from either GGP or VIL

 

[Putty7]

For those seriously considering the options, please read:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=509274

If I were managment I'd let the oppies lapse before releasing anything that would shoot it above 10c :

Implied volatility is something like 75%

Nice thread Skyquake, I think I said earlier through this thread, it's also about who doesn't want the options coming online as far as traders go, as we have seen it is an easy share to move about and supress, if a few of the bigger holders, instos or traders don't want them about they can supress the SP until July and participate in a Cap raising instead, so not just the company to worry about although I take your points onboard about it being a cunning ploy by a company.

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Thanks guys for your input,

I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.

I'm hoping that the heads might get to 6 or 7 cents following the flow testing and my plan is to offload them for around 2 cents.

If I lose the lot then it's not that much money anyway, but from what the chairmans been saying you'd think it would make it those levels surely.

The heads are off to a nice start today anyway.

Good luck to all!

 

[condog]

Thanks guys for your input,

I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.

I'm hoping that the heads might get to 6 or 7 cents following the flow testing and my plan is to offload them for around 2 cents.

If I lose the lot then it's not that much money anyway, but from what the chairmans been saying you'd think it would make it those levels surely.

The heads are off to a nice start today anyway.

Good luck to all!

At least you know your downside is locked in..... 500k not a bad hedge for $4500... good luck ey hope it works in your favour.....

You option holders aught to be the ones bashing the door down for clearer and uniform communication

Very nice buy volumes building again.... I bought 100,000 AUT this morning, not as much leverage as VIL, but IMO DYOR virtually certain upside very significant... worth a look but DYOR and seek advice....opinion only...I was torn between ADI and AUt and went AUT for its acerage....Disc -very limited supply on sale so if it takes off im selling half and may profit from anyone who buys...

 

[Putty7]

Thanks guys for your input,

I just got half a million oppies at 0.9c so I'm pretty happy I got in before the pending announcement.

I'm hoping that the heads might get to 6 or 7 cents following the flow testing and my plan is to offload them for around 2 cents.

If I lose the lot then it's not that much money anyway, but from what the chairmans been saying you'd think it would make it those levels surely.

The heads are off to a nice start today anyway.

Good luck to all!

Best of luck Mervin, I think the inground resource valuation will be the biggest catalyst for the SP, if they announce they will hook up the 1.6 miles of pipe and start producing if the well is commercially viable is another, the flow rates of the well being yet another, the next well to follow again a catalyst, we are all speculating but it looks good and there is a silver lining, the thing for the oppies is the interest in the share which doesn't seem to be in shortage and the timing of events, if they decide before June to do a cap raising before .10c is reached I would start to be worried.

 

[pilots]

Mervin, the only thing that is keeping the SP on this stock up is the ramp team at HC. If you have made a profit get out.