VIL - Verus Investments

[Tommo_Aus]

Open looks errrr... interesting. Wonder if it will be an early but temporary panic sell or if it'll last for a lot longer.

 

[swans05]

how low will vil go today, and is it a great opportunity to buy in at a cheaper price again?? the buyers are disappearing fast....

 

[Putty7]

I sent these guys a rather direct email yesterday demanding some quantified data, looks like we now have some

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
Fausse Point has recommenced testing the initial zone of interest in the lowest of three identified hydrocarbon
formations. Initial clean up and production testing of this first zone of interest has resulted in good initial flow
rates of gas and condensate. Initial flow rates up to 1.8 million cubic feet of gas per day and 56 barrels of
condensate per day at a 6/64 choke have been recorded. The drawdown and buildup process of testing the
interval at various flow rates and pressures continues in determining the commercial significance of the
interval. This testing process is expected to take a few more days in order to fully test the interval. So far, the
initial results have not provided a definitive result.
The Fausse Point well has encountered three distinct gas and oil formations starting at 7,000 ft. There have
been several zones of interest across all three major formations with indications of hydrocarbons. The lowest
formation includes several zones of interest including the zone just perforated that indicated good
permeability, porosity with oil/condensate recovered in the sample cores and has now flowed hydrocarbons
to surface.
Comments
It is very important to do a thorough review in the initial testing of this first zone of interest prior to
committing to the cost of installing surface facilities and a gas pipeline. The standard testing sequence takes
several days and it is important to be very thorough in this phase of testing. Extended production testing
operations will be conducted throughout this coming week. If the first zone just tested confirms a commercial
result, testing will cease and preparations will begin to bring the well onto production.

A 6/64 choke is a bit over 2mm wide, so even though the SP will get hammered today it is just one of the initial chokes used and larger sizes will be utilized as testing continues to see if the well can sustain a larger flow while maintaining pressure up to it, just goes to show why when they test a hole they don't usually release results until the end of testing, the market isn't responding well to the announcement.

 

[Risenow]

hmm looks like indicative price will drop to 5c, I'm wondering whether it would be a better idea to jump ship or buy in more..

they've been saying: This testing process is expected to take a few more days in order to fully test the interval. So far, the initial results have not provided a definitive result.

so much risk at this point. It could definately go either way but I'm not sure it will jump up again as before since that seemed to be a lot of short term dealers. Couldn't see many big buys. I take it you're holding on for the remainder of this wild ride Condog?

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Interesting to compare GGP's announcement with RRS' announcement in December 2009 of its discovery in Texas. RRS announced that it drilled and logged the Smith #1 well to a depth of 4,260 metres and unloaded the well on a 6/64 choke until gas reached the surface, then opened to a 10/64 choke for 5 hours to clean up the well. Despite the small choke size, the average rate during that period was 2.4 million cubic feet of gas and 191 barrels of oil per day with no water. Final flowing casing pressure was 6,354 psi.

Compare this with the initial results from GGP's tests and there's certainly a sizable difference on the oil produced and the gas is a little short of what was declared by RRS to be a commercially producing well.

As I noted earlier, the share prices of both VIL and GGP will be driven down today because GGP's announcement basically amounts to: "we don't know how this well will turn out at this stage. Signs look good but we can't be definite".

 

[Atlas79]

I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...

 

[DeCal]

Bought in at 0.08 sold at 0.047 and it's heading north slowly. No idea where it'll head today, better be south to make me feel better (no offence to people holding on!)

 

[Speculator]

I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...

IMO alota novice investors woulds been put onto this by media, mates and brokers add the day traders in and POW right in the kisser.

 

[Miner]

VIL fell more than 32% this morning (11 Feb) compared to much lesser fall in GGP.

I am guessing the disporportionate fall in VIL attributed to two things.
It got a very high exposure on GGP so effect is a multiplier on either way of news.
It is an investment company so more speculative compared to a producing company.

I feel sorry for those who might have entered into VIL only recently.

DNH

 

[condog]

I don't know why such large numbers of people should be spooked off by the announcement. They haven't yet confirmed best case scenario but nor have they retracted from anything said up to this point that would have motivated someone to buy in the first place...

I agree ,spooked why, i would be surpirsed to see a rebound as the numbers moved from sellers to buyers pretty quick...

Sure 56 B of condensate is no big shakes, but this well was always intended to go for gas sales, the oil is , was and will be a bonus... to our knowledge they may intend fraccing on the vertical, or going horizontal with future wells , who knows, and hence probably part of their extensive testing program...'

Putty the 6/64 is only very small as you stated and to the best of my knowledge flow calculations and hence results are adjusted for the choke size anyway.... but with fluids flowing though the same small choke, my understanding is its not a real reliable test and they need to go to a bigger choke to understand how they both flow less restricted.....

Sometimes the small choke is needed to stop blowouts, other times to avoid water problems, but given all that salt and absolutely no mention of water whatsoever, it hink its more a pressure problem at present....perhaps worried about blowout...better to be safe then sorry...

Theres 38m on the buy side now so sell pressure is dropping... might be time to se if i can find some cash by selling something else.....???? if im brave enough...

 

[pilots]

Sorry guys, but after reading the report I would say its only a small pocket of gas,(ITS NOT COMMERCIAL) this is VERY common when drilling. Now can you tell me why VIL have not posted the report, do they think we are that thick we don't read other reports. They now will come out with, side tract, more testing, blah, blah blah.

 

[Boognish]

my instinct was telling me to get out at 9c as I've been in this situation many times with spec drillers. The price goes nuts on pure speculation and the subsequent announcements disappoint.

Not saying that's what is going to happen here but in my experience it has been a pretty common pattern of events.

 

[subasurf]

Excellent, all this panic selling may give me a chance to buy in at a reasonable price. I missed the first ship that sailed.

 

[pilots]

Well I hope for your sake this ship wont end up on the rocks.
Can you believe they have not given out a up date.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

56 barrels per day is pathetic irrespective of what else might be down there. Good luck to all holders. I will watch and wait from the sidelines.

 

[Putty7]

Sold out this morning, in hindsite should have done at .08c and taken the bird in the hand, but that's the nature of the game and another learning curve about being overly greedy lol, made 80k so can't sook to much but the lost opportunity of greater profits is a lesson learnt once again. They still have more zones to test which is positive, a cap raising rearing its ugly head could be around the corner so prefer to adopt a wait and see approach. Took positions in MOG, MEO and GOA. Best of luck to those still holding.

 

[pilots]

Putty7, I would have thought that they would of had the Cap raising when the SP was up, looks to me like that VIL missed the boat as well.

 

[Putty7]

Putty7, I would have thought that they would of had the Cap raising when the SP was up, looks to me like that VIL missed the boat as well.

I think they will need to do one now as the options look a long way from fruition especially in the short term, they may get a result from this well that is commercial but I don't think it will see .10c now, if they need cash for the next well to be put down, a quick and relatively painless insto cap raising would be their best bet now.

 

[pilots]

Most times the bottom zone is the best, the bottom will have the biggest PSI, if this ones a dud, I don't hold any hope for the next lot of zones, can you believe that they have not posted any thing today.

 

[condog]

Dont get too carried away. all you people commentating after each market movement....... this is one well if they thought the announcment this mornign was going to get the rediculous over reaction it recieved they would have stated it was non-commercial if they at all though that was the case.....

in terms of 56BOPD the primary target for this well was in fact the 120ft gas play so any oil in this well was always a bonus anyway....

Im holding tight....obviously in hindsight a 9.4 cent partial exit would have been good, but it was 3.5 cents when they started drilling , they have a lot more confidence and knowledge of their target and still a possible commercial 1st well so 4.5 c seems rediculously oversold IMO...

Now watch all the mockers launch on that...

Pilots in terms of your continual reference to them not posting...if youd followed them closely you would know that they only ever made the one independent post and they copped a flogging for it...because there where discrepancies between GGP's and VIl's all other announcments have been duplications of GGP....so they have made the appropriate announcment....