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VIL - Verus Investments

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I was excited as well but when I read the announcement... it didn't exactly say anything new. I wouldn't be too concerned tho, at least we know the testing is definately commencing this time.
 
It could have been they was waiting on the test rig, all so when you rig up a test rig, you test EVERY thing on the rig first, don't want any thing to fail when they are half way in to a test. If they have any thing in the well it has been down the hole a long time, so one more week wont hurt it.
 
remember in the investor presentation, 20c min base case!!! so these prices are very good considering that.

40c upside case!
 
Wasn't much of an announcement Condog but if look on the bright side, you don't have to sit there for the rest of the week waiting for an announcement on open that wasn't coming lol
 
doyoureallycare said:
remember in the investor presentation, 20c min base case!!! so these prices are very good considering that.

40c upside case!
Click to expand...

Yeh thats what ive been saying for 3 weeks... I havent lost site of the upside here....just damn frustrated with the speed or lack there of....

IMO they have already stated "this is the best possible outcome investors could have wished for" indicating they think we are heading for 20-40c range, irrespective of whether its this well or the next....

IMO they think there is commercially viable gas or oil or both on this tenement , hence the acerage increase....and progression of sales plans....

Traders are back in huge time this afternoon so any change in possible timeline will see some nervous exiters.....

Yeh true putty...its good to know...(that bottom line keeps jumping by a lot putty...)

Enjoy the roller coaster of emotions and wealth
 
VIL broke out of a cup and handle pattern on the 8th of Jan on a strong volume day. Depth of the cup from .016 to the top .04 gives a .024 difference. initial target is calculated by adding the .024 to the .04 = .064

Yesterday after twice failing to break through .05 on the 12th & 28th Jan finally broke through .05 (note on high volume) from a smaller cup & handle pattern. It is worthy to note that this second cup and handle pattern is also shaping to be an ascending triangle, very bullish.

After yesterdays move, a consolidation day following conquering the .05 zone. Closed at .051 only 590,000 shares as traders closed out.

From the charts there are 2 targets the first being .064 calculated from the cup and handle (see chart). This is target is also supported if you calculate the smaller cup & handle which I have not marked but easy to see.

There is however another pattern emerged an ascending triangle, the depth .022 calculated by the higherst point .05 (rough) taking the lowest point .028 = .022. Add the .022 to .05 gives a target of .072

Charts are a picture of what is happening and price targets can be assumed but not guaranteed, however the price itself is driven by fundamentals, anns and world markets. These events leave a foot print which chartists try to make sense of.

Description of both cup & handle plus acsending triangles can be found in links below. They are both bullish patterns!

http://www.chartpatterns.com/ascendingtriangles.htm

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_cont

 

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Just want to say thanks.
Jumping in @.035 & @0.037 in January. Not much but enough to make me sitting in happily and wait comfortably. Thanks to this forum, mainly to condog, putty7, and pilots also the rest of you guys and girls. Your comments, research, and explanation are very helpful. Thank you all............:
 
Got this off HC.

This website allows you to query every well drilled in Louisiana. Just submit a search on parish of Iberia (Fausse Point is in this district) and this provides the complete history. Interesting that two holes were drilled within 15m of each other...one was dry and the other was a producer.
The producer was 685m west of FP#1 and the dry hole 700m west

http://sonris-www.dnr.state.la.us/www_root/sonris_portal_1.htm

On the left click on "Sonris Lite"

than wells by serial number

serial number 240087 for "our" well

The co ordinates are listed if you would like to pin point the well using google earth, which I will do later.
 
No worries but make sure you DYOR and seek expert advice...as we are not brokers or advisors....

Anyone whos holding today be very aware that any time from Mondays open onwards is a likely announcment.... That announcment is IMO likely to cause sudden share price movement either up or down....

IMO If its negative it wont dramatically change the value of the underlying company and assets but it will change the time frames and that IMO will see an over reaction down as investors with short time frames look to get out....

If its good IMO it will change the value of the company...to reflect a PE multiple of the commercial volume.... eg as a very rough example, if its producing $1m net gas after costs per annum at a PE of 15 it adds approx $15m to mcap = approx 3.5c per share per $1m net gas......

Some folks would leave it at that, but the market would generally also begin to price some success into future wells... eg: perhaps a 20% premium or so on future wells within 6-12 months....

For me i would build in a safety margin and operate on a PE of 8 - 10

This is very very very rough so DYOR and seek expert advice.....

AS my rough guide id be expecting around 2- 5c per share based on each $1m net gas per annum ....so if it looks like its going to flow $15m net gas per annum @ PE of 8 =120M / 480m shares & opts = approx = up by approx 25c per share

Again i emphasise these are very rough, they are not cross checked, and i am not a borker or advisor.... I put this here to help others and to have my info cross checked....DYOR , seek expert advice

GaryS said:
Interesting that two holes were drilled within 15m of each other...one was dry and the other was a producer. The producer was 685m west of FP#1 and the dry hole 700m west
Click to expand...

Yes this astounds me and i often get worried when they drill to close to non-producers, but it seems to happen very often....


Be warned some codes in sonris can be misleading to an untrained eye...so be cautios of jumping to massive conclusions till the company makes an announcment...There is a sonris glossary that will help and you will also need to google other terms...

Thanks wanladi for your technical analysis
 

When they made this announcement I wondered if the boys and girls might go for one last pump and dump given the result was at least 3 trading days away, hopefully it will hold above .05c on close to give us a springboard for the flow rates announcement but looking at todays line up for the open nothing is set in stone.

While I was annoyed by the delay, one thing that impresses me is they haven't rushed things, so easy to do when the adenaline is up, it shows they have a good crew on site and a few level heads in management, better to consider all available information and get things right the first time and reduce the risk of cost over runs and having stuff ups.

Kindee Oil and Gas Louisiana (the company doing the drilling) is a subsiduary of GGP so the professionalism shown reflects over the lot of them and bodes well for the future of success on the project. You can bet we won't have problems obtaining a rig if and when they want the next well sunk.

As for the flow rates announcement lets hope Monday will give us some indications.
 
Re: VAIL - Virus Investments

Con dog, We have drilled on a producing field that had 5 pump jacks all around us, we got a duster. This is VERY common if you have any fault lines around you. Look at GDN, the last well they drilled they hit a fault line and the whole formation changed, however this well they are drilling is at the top of the zone and they should be lucky this time, third time lucky maybe. Just look at Bass straight, so many dusters. Never forget when you drill a well, YOU WONT KNOW UNTIL YOU FLOW.
 
Yeh Pilots thats what i was sought of getting at, although im a lot more optimistic on some projects over others... eg here for gas and the eagle ford and bakken shales for both gas and oil.... not saying every hole will come up trumps, but the probability is certainly better...

Putty .....Yeh we need a real good platform to launch from and touch wood in a sea of red lemmings we are currently black and holding 5c which is a great vote of confidence by the market... and the VIL traders / holders....

IMO I wouldnt be surprised if we spend some / all the afternoon in the green, as people raise there exposure to a likely announcment one way or the other next week...

-270 on the DJIA is a huge tide to swim against, but givin its currently holding its a very good sign...
 
Useful technical analysis Wanladi.

Today's trading looks to support the cup and handle nicely, and I couldn't resist picking up a parcel at 5c this morning, taking my average up to 4.2c.

Thanks to all for this informative thread - I'm learning a fair bit here about napkin valuations of prospecting stocks, and adding some TA learnings to the event is also great.


 
Re: VAIL - Virus Investments


Yeh on the flip side some times it takes a few dusters to teach companies where to drill.... GDN seems to fit that bill... they are learning more about the formations with each drill... as they actual hit pay they will learn a lot more....which is exactly what they seem to be doing here....

Mate ide ram the thing down to the middle of the primary and tap the thing id have 18 days worth of pay banked by now.....but more patient conservative operators like GGP seem to like to take there time on these things, and as putty has said... in the long term they will probalby save a lot of money / make a lot more and save a lot of errors along the way....
 
Good buy volumes mounting for a strong finish... hopefully a rebound on wall street + the oil price + some news all lining up nicely...

VIL the only green stock on alll my watch lists
 
condog said:
Good buy volumes mounting for a strong finish... hopefully a rebound on wall street + the oil price + some news all lining up nicely...

VIL the only green stock on alll my watch lists
Click to expand...

I've got about 50 - 60 different stocks on the lists and not many green lights have survived the last few weeks, good if you are thinking of re-entering some of them soon I guess.

Good finish to the week at .052c, VIL will move either way on it's own strength regardless of the market etc Condog, just think if the market is down and they have a good announcement, the more spec money will look to get on rather than go elsewhere.

The catalyst will be if Oil and Gas flow commercially, Gas would be ok but both is better, they appear to be bullish with the previous announcements that it could, but until it comes up in an announcement confirming it we have to wait.

GGP made a bullish move since the drill completed, farming in to a nearby block for 50 percent. The acquisition of the nearby land to cover this resource also indicates it may have been bigger than first thought.

In the end there is a lot of speculation going on, until it is confirmed by testing its a moot point for investors and holders alike. Hopefully next week will end the waiting game.
 
I agree putty the last GGP announcment about Silverwood acquisition is extremely bullish..... $600,000 farm in.... " adds high impact exploration with near term upside to the current Fausse Point project"

This shows an incredible confidence by GGP that they are onto something in this area...thye obviously feel they are here now and with there people on the ground they can get some near term up side and sysnergies from multiple projects in the area.....

If they thought Fausse point was a duster they would not have acquired the 80 acres or this $600,000 project.....
 
Massively Positive News - Its Not Commercial Yet - These Are Fantastic Indications - And These Guys Are Being Super Careful
 
Condog, this was released a couple of days ago.... but i think there is something on the way this morning

GET READY PEOPLE.....
 
Must be a different announcement to what I'm reading!!!


OIL!!!!

Blah blah message too short. Still too short.
 
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