VIL - Verus Investments

[Putty7]

As you say Condog, rig should be on site tonight if not already, not sure how long they take to mobilise, perforate the casing and test but I would think if they arrive on time a Monday or Tuesday announcement regarding the flow rates of the first area of interest (In the Primary target zone at the bottom) could not be ruled out, 14 days to test 6 zones would put the first target to be tested within that window.

Will be interesting to see if the pushing up and down stops by days end tomorrow because of this possibility.

As they have stated if the first zone is commercial, testing stops and it is prepared for production, a lot has to go right to see a good announcement early next week but I wouldn't rule it out, they seem to have a lot of confidence in what they have found, I guess next week will show if it is cool gas or hot air.

 

[condog]

I dont want to be accused of ramping or starting rumours.

So you go read the section of todays quarterly activity statement... where GGP put a P50 announcment of 7.4MmBOe on Fause point then come back and tell me what you think....

Fausse Point Project
An attractive and inexpensive oil and gas prospect on a producing salt dome field
Relatively shallow drilling targets (< 9,000 ft) and low-cost wells
Reserve estimate: 7.4 MMBO, 24.2 BCFG (P50)

Putty said thye have given this before.....but its still a big positive that they have left it in...

Looks like we are going to get dangled like a tea bag all weekend...

 

[Miner]

I dont want to be accused of ramping or starting rumours.

So you go read the section of todays quarterly activity statement... where GGP put a P50 announcment of 7.4MmBOe on Fause point then come back and tell me what you think....



Putty said thye have given this before.....but its still a big positive that they have left it in...

Looks like we are going to get dangled like a tea bag all weekend...

Hi Condog

Good point
But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?

You are one of the key researchers on this scrip and surely would be able to throw some light.

All information available public domain suggest GGP has not lost any lustre but the question remains why GGPO fell so miserably today.

 

[Putty7]

Hi Condog

Good point
But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?

You are one of the key researchers on this scrip and surely would be able to throw some light.

All information available public domain suggest GGP has not lost any lustre but the question remains why GGPO fell so miserably today.

Basically if you are a holder Miner its a matter of waiting for the announcement of the flow rates. After OBJ and BCC fell over recently it shows how fragile these little shares are, a mediocre announcement of the first flow rates as they test wont help VILs SP cause short term, then again a positive announcement will give it some confidence, buy the fact, sell the rumour so to speak. Whatever happens the results will make or break the SP in the short term, traders have been pushing the SP around for months so today is probably no different.

 

[condog]

Hi Condog

Good point
But why market has failed today to read the news and lift the price instead?

You are one of the key researchers on this scrip and surely would be able to throw some light.

All information available public domain suggest GGP has not lost any lustre but the question remains why GGPO fell so miserably today.

For a few reasons....VIL is not as shiny lately as GGP....but not sure on GGPO, i have not been watching it..

Firstly the entire market is nervy and jittery at present
As putty says little things in these stocks make impatient people sell
GGP has mutiple projects and already has approx 200BOPD revenue
GGP has artificail buying pressure at present due to a few media articlses - shhhhhhh
GGP definitely has an older more conservative bunch of patient shareholders, where as VIL have proven volatile and we have a bunch of short to very short term traders involved, curtousy of the massive volumes over the last 3 weeks...
The VIL short term traders have been more interested in being out rather then in, and they have proven to be very time sensitive...

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Sorting through many of the HC posts there's a bunch of rubbish but one post did draw my attention, then again it could mean nothing. Yesterday the front page of the VIL website was displaying Nickel & Gold prices but now it displays the Oil price instead...

 

[condog]

Sorting through many of the HC posts there's a bunch of rubbish but one post did draw my attention, then again it could mean nothing. Yesterday the front page of the VIL website was displaying Nickel & Gold prices but now it displays the Oil price instead...

No big shakes, thier work experience kid probably fiddled with the html code and inserted the wrong RSS feed...

Im more concerned with what thecompletion / testing rig guys are up to...
By my clacs when we wake monday morning this rig will have been on site somewhere between 3 and 4 full days which is adequate to have some good data on the bottom target... not enough for a 3 day flare if its all gas...but damn close..

If full disclosure is fair dinkum and no one has an advantage we should definitely be getting an announcment of some sort tommorrow morning on the opening....Even its just to say oil in bottom target didnt flow and we are now testing a few meters up for gas.......or ... we are in the processw of flare off....or we have choke on and are getting blah at blah pressure....

But fact is theres data out there somewhere by now and i for 1 will be expecting to have it disclosed ...before 10am monday...

There is no data on any websites or reports yet but for sure the testing rig folks, company folks and and folks they are talking to would know by know whats happening...

 

[pilots]

They will know 15 minutes after they have perforated the hole if it is good or not, they won't know how good it will be, but they will know if it is a duster. If its good you will see the buy side go up, if its bad you will see it crash. It is very hard to keep good news, or bad news on the lease, now the only time I have seen a rig keep it in hand is when you are out of reach of any of the phone towers. How ever to you have sat phones, so info can still get out. You will find that the three day flare is for the whole of the testing program, most palaces in the USA to day you can only test in to a pipe line.

 

[Putty7]

They will know 15 minutes after they have perforated the hole if it is good or not, they won't know how good it will be, but they will know if it is a duster. If its good you will see the buy side go up, if its bad you will see it crash. It is very hard to keep good news, or bad news on the lease, now the only time I have seen a rig keep it in hand is when you are out of reach of any of the phone towers. How ever to you have sat phones, so info can still get out. You will find that the three day flare is for the whole of the testing program, most palaces in the USA to day you can only test in to a pipe line.

I know where you are coming from Pilots, so many outsiders to leak news, I worked on diamond drill rigs over 10 years ago now and although I wasn't into the stock market then the behaviour you describe went on, geologists causing delays for no real reasons that the driller could fathom, offsiders using the sat phone to ring mates etc etc, the trouble is there is so much artificial stimulation in this share already from traders it's hard to know fact from fiction. I don't like being a bear or the prophet of doom but if VIL has good to outstanding news this week it may be one of the few green lights on the screen.

 

[pilots]

Putty7, What I did not like most is the companies that have what they call feeders, that are people that are feed just a little info from some one on a rig/mine from time to time, the info they get is correct but not real important, but the feeder thinks he is on the inside, then at the end of the well if it is a duster the feeder is told that the well is a ripper but DON'T tell any one, the feeder tells all his mates and up goes the SP, mean time at the rig all the hands are selling. Look how many times you see a SP jump up just b4 they tell you it is a duster. This only happens with the little companies, under 10c, I am NOT saying this is going on at VIL.

 

[condog]

Putty7, What I did not like most is the companies that have what they call feeders, that are people that are feed just a little info from some one on a rig/mine from time to time, the info they get is correct but not real important, but the feeder thinks he is on the inside, then at the end of the well if it is a duster the feeder is told that the well is a ripper but DON'T tell any one, the feeder tells all his mates and up goes the SP, mean time at the rig all the hands are selling. Look how many times you see a SP jump up just b4 they tell you it is a duster. This only happens with the little companies, under 10c, I am NOT saying this is going on at VIL.

While I have no doubt this is the case a asx announcment of the magnitude put out by VIL director, confirmed elsehwere is an extremely different situation....drilling logs indicate aame as announcments...

Pilots your right tao say this, but not in this thread, theres no justification for that whatsoever in here.... Im not saying it cant happen, but such pesimism based on "0" really is unfair to the efforts this mob have put in, the the established resources in the area, to the shareholders who have backed the thing for good reasons.....Please provide some evidence for what you are saying , else we have no choice to say its just pesimism...and investing and pesimism dont mix...

 

[pilots]

Condog, ""Drilling logs indicate the same as the announcements"", you are 100% correct, but we now have to wait for the flow test, this is the ONLY way you get to know what they have, now if it is a duster they will know in 15 minutes from the start of each test. Most times the best is at the bottom, so as you move up the hole your chances drop off, how ever, look at AZZ. they did produce from the bottom zone for some time, they now are producing from the primary zone now. Should they tell us more testing is required, will do a side tract, need more wells to see how big the field is, and they have NOT told us the flow rates, the PSI, or the choke size, I would drop them like a hot potato. Don't forget that all most every well that is drilled, is tested at the end, HOW MANY OF THEM EVER ARE COMMERCIAL???

 

[condog]

We should know something today....day 3- 4 of testing??

An announcment of some sort is due / overdue today.....however having said that GGP have proven to be super conservative in delivery of information....

Comsec has just rest and no announcments yet....but its middle of night in Perth at company HQ right now.....

Im expecting huge volatitlity and volume on this now till the news comes through....

 

[pilots]

Condog, have a look at AZZ this morning, read the report, thats how it is done, you have the PSI, the choke size, the flow rate, the grade of the Oil, and how many wells are planned.

 

[condog]

Condog, have a look at AZZ this morning, read the report, thats how it is done, you have the PSI, the choke size, the flow rate, the grade of the Oil, and how many wells are planned.

True Pilots - Im actually in AZZ and this is a very positive announcment, doen in a good timeframe, exactly how you want all of them done... its the benchmark....

 

[pilots]

I did think it would have made 70c this morning, looks like we will have to wait for more wells to come on line, cant see us getting a dividend until they have at least ten wells producing full time. I have been waiting for years so whats one more year.

 

[condog]

No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....

 

[condog]

No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....

Even AZZ which as pilots said today had great news, as did ADI / AUT AMI's and they all suffered most the day..... the bears where active...be nice to have the bulls back soon wouldnt it...

 

[Putty7]

No annoucment and i never thought ide be saying it, but in hindsight probably a damn good thing....several stock i hold had very positve announcments today and where still punished by the bears.....

Even AZZ which as pilots said today had great news, as did ADI / AUT AMI's and they all suffered most the day..... the bears where active...be nice to have the bulls back soon wouldnt it...

AZZ have already had a significant rise recently through from October but mainly in December and early January, they traded roughly 2.1 million shares today ( worth roughly $1.4 mil ) on a good announcement and finished in the red, they have a market cap of 158 million and shareholder value of 2.5 million so I am assuming some of the spec value was already built into the price before the announcement and the down market didn't help.

VIL built slightly after christmas on the first HydroCarbons announcement but has been punished by traders with a slump after it achieves a positive announcement rise, it hasnt been allowed to build like AZZ did, no announcement today and still finished positive with 34 million shares traded ( roughlly $1.5 mil ), when the announcement comes there is a lot of interest already in this share as a spec and the value will be added or subtracted in my opinion when investors can see fact from fiction.

 

[condog]

They havent even started testing yet.....WTF are these guys doing....they must be bottom of the cue in terms of getting rigs on site .....

Anyway thats my rant....they are testing this weekend.....

I got all excited when i saw the announcment box come up....but damn....
They win the academy award for slowest well testers this year....