Victorian election 2022

Knobby22 said:

Nationals did really well, took a few seats.
Easy win for Labor.

Unfortunately, even John Pesutto looks like not taking Hawthorn for the Libs.
Will they get their act together now???
Not good.

The Libs went into bed with extremists and now no one wants them.
The Murdoch press encouraged this and have done more damage to the Liberal cause than good.

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What extremists?

Genuine question from someone not in that state.

wayneL said:

What extremists?

Genuine question from someone not in that state.

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...and, what does "getting their act together" look like? (I have my views on this)

wayneL said:

...and, what does "getting their act together" look like? (I have my views on this)

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They need to represent the middle, not the right wing crazies, church crazies and anti vaxxer set. The lockdown was successful because 95% of people who are also vaccinated agree.

They need to look forward and try to gain our trust again.

They need to get representation from the broad community, not just old white guys.

I have a relative in the party desperately trying to get good people selected, (on the selection committee) stymied by USA based churches and factionalism. Trying to get women and people from diverse backgrounds.

Develop a vision, Conservatives are meant to have plans to get the economy in surplus, stop waste etc.

Anti Dan crap will not get you there.
The stupid cartoons just make people feel they can't vote Liberal as it encourages the hate and visciosness.
Peta Credlin is not a vote winner.

It is weird but the NSW Liberals are far more moderate than our guys.

Don't select leaders with corruption problems. Don't select deputies with drinking problems.

I voted Liberal and wanted a better result but I fully understand why it didn't occur.

SirRumpole said:

Despite the demonisation of Andrews, Victoria is another disaster for the Libs, who are well and truly on the nose all around the country.

Looks like they will spend quite a bit of time in the wilderness.

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Which is absolutely great, there has never been a greater need for a full house Labor Govt than now.
We will look back and see that this is the beginning of a new era IMO.
Just need NSW to get flipped and then we will get some real change IMO.

Off topic.

I watched the Sky News coverage at one point and was disgusted to see on the panel Kroger, the man who effectively destroyed the Vic Libs and Dim Tim the drunken idiot that ran his luxury car into a house both spouting crap and big noting themselves.

Couldn't Sky get a decent Liberal on the panel that wasn't kicked out? Wouldn't anyone appear?

Knobby22 said:

They need to represent the middle, not the right wing crazies, church crazies and anti vaxxer set. The lockdown was successful because 95% of people who are also vaccinated agree.

They need to look forward and try to gain our trust again.

They need to get representation from the broad community, not just old white guys.

I have a relative in the party desperately trying to get good people selected, (on the selection committee) stymied by USA based churches and factionalism. Trying to get women and people from diverse backgrounds.

Develop a vision, Conservatives are meant to have plans to get the economy in surplus, stop waste etc.

Anti Dan crap will not get you there.
The stupid cartoons just make people feel they can't vote Liberal as it encourages the hate and visciosness.
Peta Credlin is not a vote winner.

It is weird but the NSW Liberals are far more moderate than our guys.

Don't select leaders with corruption problems. Don't select deputies with drinking problems.

I voted Liberal and wanted a better result but I fully understand why it didn't occur.

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I think there are a lot of disenfranchised Lib voters, such as myself.

I have my reasons for never being able to vote Labor... ever. But equally, can't bring myself to support the current batch of (Il)Liberals either... and as is quite evident, there are a lot like me.

wayneL said:

what does "getting their act together" look like?

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I'm not a Victorian but as I see it, what the Liberals are missing in most states is actual policies and a plan to achieve, well, anything really.

If there's one thing I think people have had enough of, it's "do nothing" approaches from governments. They're paid well, they don't hesitate to pass laws and tax the population, so they need to deliver and get things done and be seen to be doing so.

I mean seriously, privatised sewage works? Like, really? Seriously? That was one of the few actual policies they had and it speaks volumes. It's not 1992 and it's not as though the other privatisations of essential services was such a resounding success as to make more of it seem desirable.

And please ditch the religion and conservatism. It's a bit like sex - it's fine between consenting adults but there's a place for it and that place is not parliament.

Interesting that, while retaining Government, the ALP had a 5.8% swing against it yet the LNP only had a 0.2% swing. The Greens and Others picked that up.

Smurf1976 said:

I'm not a Victorian but as I see it, what the Liberals are missing in most states is actual policies and a plan to achieve, well, anything really.

If there's one thing I think people have had enough of, it's "do nothing" approaches from governments. They're paid well, they don't hesitate to pass laws and tax the population, so they need to deliver and get things done and be seen to be doing so.

I mean seriously, privatised sewage works? Like, really? Seriously? That was one of the few actual policies they had and it speaks volumes. It's not 1992 and it's not as though the other privatisations of essential services was such a resounding success as to make more of it seem desirable.

And please ditch the religion and conservatism. It's a bit like sex - it's fine between consenting adults but there's a place for it and that place is not parliament.

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Ditch conservatism?

I think that part of their problem, depending on what we're defining as conservatism here. It seems to have a pretty loose definition.

But if you ditch conservatism (again, loosely defined), what do you have?

Two "progressive" parties?

In any case, the original Menzian party was not "conservative" as such; remembering that The Liberal Party split off and dissented from the conservatives.

Elements of what is included in the broad theme of conservatism, yes. Truly conservative, no.

That where they are lost, forsaking there own core mantra and their core constituency, trying to capture vote they will never get and losing most of what they had.

Belli said:

Interesting that, while retaining Government, the ALP had a 5.8% swing against it yet the LNP only had a 0.2% swing. The Greens and Others picked that up.

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Also of interest, in keeping with recent trends, neither major party could muster more than just over a third of the vote.

I've always been in favour (if only lukewarm about it) of our preferential voting system, but it is no longer giving us true representation.

A stomping majority on 36% of the primary vote has knobs on it IMO.

Pesutto now just ahead in Hawthorn.
He is an intelligent guy and will make a great leader. The Libs desperately need him to win.

wayneL said:

Also of interest, in keeping with recent trends, neither major party could muster more than just over a third of the vote.

I've always been in favour (if only lukewarm about it) of our preferential voting system, but it is no longer giving us true representation.

A stomping majority on 36% of the primary vote has knobs on it IMO.

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It is , if you voted your preferences would have gone Liberal.

It's just that the Angry Party, Lib Dems, sack Dan Andrews party, Health (Anti Vax) party make up only a tiny proportion of voters.

And one reason the Greens went so well is that Liberals preferenced them in front of the Labor party.

Herald Sun is coping by pretending the election never happened.

Libs have no vision right now. Not even a safe pair of hands. Gives off weak lower manager style vibes. The US style talking points won't get far either. I don't think their youth marketing and fostering programs are anywhere up to scratch. Hence the reliance on maga recruitment.

Right now their message is unknown beyond the basics and even that feels weak. You don't win if your main message is bagging your opponent.

moXJO said:

Libs have no vision right now. Not even a safe pair of hands. Gives off weak lower manager style vibes. The US style talking points won't get far either. I don't think their youth marketing and fostering programs are anywhere up to scratch. Hence the reliance on maga recruitment.

Right now their message is unknown beyond the basics and even that feels weak. You don't win if your main message is bagging your opponent.

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It's possibly even worse over here in the West. Libs are virtually invisible.

wayneL said:

It's possibly even worse over here in the West. Libs are virtually invisible.

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I think that's why they grabbed a hold of the maga messaging. They were asleep at the wheel when it came to recruiting youth voters. They have no idea how to message, possibly no idea's either to entice the youth.

Meanwhile... How Dan Andrews can say they "followed the science" is beyond me. But he's managed to tap into the leftist group think cultists. However, I believe that benefits the greens in the end.

wayneL said:

Ditch conservatism?

I think that part of their problem, depending on what we're defining as conservatism here. It seems to have a pretty loose definition.

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I define things by what they actually are or do not what it says on the box. That goes for anything from food to music.

My observations of "conservative" politics is that it basically involves:

A resistance to change in any form. A view that life was just perfect at some prior time and that we ought resist change regardless of the arguments for or against.

A view that we should have "small government" in terms of government actually doing things but that we should have "big government" in terms of its interference in the lives of individuals. And so we sell the utilities and outsource things like road maintenance in line with that "small government" thinking whilst preaching the virtues of religion and telling people how they ought live their lives, that being the "big government" bit.

As a concept it's akin to the boss but who isn't prepared to actually do the work. They saunter in at 10am, make a cup of coffee, go outside and smoke, come back in and sit on the toilet for half an hour, then set about questioning what the workers are up to and looking for problems. An hour later at midday they've got someone, they found that some poor chump made a private call on a company phone, which cost the company absolutely nothing, and that someone else took a ball point pen from the stationery cupboard without management approval. Gotcha! Those two workers will be hauled over the coals this afternoon, handed a formal warning, and that'll be the day's work done for the boss.

A week later our boss friend is once again yelling and screaming, being unhappy that a union man walked into their office and said they weren't being reasonable. Yep, those nasty unions always picking fights against our hardworking boss who's really just doing their best. I mean phone calls and ball point pens are valuable resources after all, there's a good 20 cents there and obviously that's a top priority for management.

Meanwhile as this circus carries on the entire business goes down the drain.

In a nutshell that's my lifetime observation of conservative politics and thinking. Perhaps it's supposed to be different but that's my observation of it, taking the Liberals as being conservative.

I'm no fan of Labor but at least they do something. At least they've got some sort of vision and ability to deliver it even if I don't fully agree with what that vision is.

The band which competently plays music I'm indifferent to is at least better than someone who can't manage to get themselves on stage and play anything at all because they're engaged in a bitter argument over a lost guitar pick.

Smurf1976 said:

I define things by what they actually are or do not what it says on the box. That goes for anything from food to music.

My observations of "conservative" politics is that it basically involves:

A resistance to change in any form. A view that life was just perfect at some prior time and that we ought resist change regardless of the arguments for or against.

A view that we should have "small government" in terms of government actually doing things but that we should have "big government" in terms of its interference in the lives of individuals. And so we sell the utilities and outsource things like road maintenance in line with that "small government" thinking whilst preaching the virtues of religion and telling people how they ought live their lives, that being the "big government" bit.

As a concept it's akin to the boss but who isn't prepared to actually do the work. They saunter in at 10am, make a cup of coffee, go outside and smoke, come back in and sit on the toilet for half an hour, then set about questioning what the workers are up to and looking for problems. An hour later at midday they've got someone, they found that some poor chump made a private call on a company phone, which cost the company absolutely nothing, and that someone else took a ball point pen from the stationery cupboard without management approval. Gotcha! Those two workers will be hauled over the coals this afternoon, handed a formal warning, and that'll be the day's work done for the boss.

A week later our boss friend is once again yelling and screaming, being unhappy that a union man walked into their office and said they weren't being reasonable. Yep, those nasty unions always picking fights against our hardworking boss who's really just doing their best. I mean phone calls and ball point pens are valuable resources after all, there's a good 20 cents there and obviously that's a top priority for management.

Meanwhile as this circus carries on the entire business goes down the drain.

In a nutshell that's my lifetime observation of conservative politics and thinking. Perhaps it's supposed to be different but that's my observation of it, taking the Liberals as being conservative.

I'm no fan of Labor but at least they do something. At least they've got some sort of vision and ability to deliver it even if I don't fully agree with what that vision is.

The band which competently plays music I'm indifferent to is at least better than someone who can't manage to get themselves on stage and play anything at all because they're engaged in a bitter argument over a lost guitar pick.

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That's probably a bit of a strawman version of conservatism and not really what the **"Liberal"** Party, stands for at its basis. More classical liberalism in the British sense. Not saying some if your criticisms aren't justified though.

I'll put some thought into it and give my vision of what it could be

Smurf1976 said:

I'm not a Victorian but as I see it, what the Liberals are missing in most states is actual policies and a plan to achieve, well, anything really.

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I'd argue that this doesn't apply to the NSW Libs.

Perrottet does have some policies. He wants to replace stamp duty on property with an annual land tax and has pushed this through as a choice for first home buyers. He is also pushing for the introduction of a cashless card for poker machines.

Both good policies in my opinion, but the labor leader Minns is opposed to both. He says he will revoke the stamp duty change and refuses to give bi-partisan support to the cashless card.

He aims to win next year's state election by being a small target and is a good chance of succeeding.

wayneL said:

That's probably a bit of a strawman version of conservatism and not really what the **"Liberal"** Party, stands for at its basis.

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In terms of what they stand for, at least originally, totally agreed.

My comments are however really just an observation of what they actually do. In that regard they're a long way from what they originally set out to do. Same with Labor.

As an example, I'll stick to a topic I know something about and just probe what the Liberal position actually is, aiming to be neutral in my own views there.

Coal.

Yes coal, it's been a somewhat thorny one yes but I'm not going to say a word about climate change here and nor am I going to argue for or against coal. My question is simply what, in practice, is the Liberal policy? What's the party actually trying to achieve?

On one hand the party has publicly been pro-coal, to the extent that's perhaps the best known policy position of the Liberals on any subject. So on that level the party likes coal.

But if we go a bit deeper then major inconsistencies exist.

Coal as a means of electricity generation is inherently inflexible. That's true both technically and economically. Plant doesn't stop and start easily and it also has high fixed costs relative to total costs. To build and operate coal plant successfully you thus need certainty. Certainty that you're going to be able to run it constantly apart from maintenance outages and do so for decades.

Now the problem is that the Liberals also supported breaking up monopoly utilities and forcing short term constant competition, even where it didn't naturally exist. Trouble being that just doesn't fit with the requirements, either technically or economically, to make coal viable. As one of many competitors you don't have decades long certainty that you can run the high capital cost plant and won't be undercut by someone with a short term focus. Indeed with dispatch intervals and pricing in 5 minute blocks you can't even run the plant efficiently in a purely technical sense - that's largely why they're closing prematurely.

That isn't unique to Australia, it's the case pretty much everywhere that once competition comes in, the industry shifts away from coal. Happened in the UK, happened in the EU, happened in the US, happening in Australia. It's not a coincidence that not a single new coal plant has been built in Victoria since the industry was reformed. Not one. Indeed Loy Yang B has only ever been half completed - construction wrapped up on the second unit in 1996 against a backdrop of industry privatisation and looming competitive markets and that was it, units 3 and 4 were never built.

So are the Liberals pro-coal or anti-coal?

They say they're pro-coal.

In practice they've played a key role in undermining the whole basis that made it viable in the first place.

I'm not arguing for or against coal but I'm not sure that the Liberals know if they're for or against it either.