VCR - Ventracor Limited

Knobby,
me thinks sideshow bob is ramming, none of what he says makes sense.

Duc,
the people who are having the ventrassist have reached the end of the road as far as other medication or methods are concerned or are you saying that these eminent doctors are somehow lying to their patients for the benefit of vcr. :swear: all over the world?

May I suggest that you visit the ventracor website and see the information released to the market and then at least you can make an informed decision. Other than that, ram away.

Yes, Sideshow Bob, the evil criminal genius in the Simpsons for people lacking that part of general knowledge in their eduction. It's sort of half a backhander and half a compliment. You do sound like him Duc.

Anyway, visual, he does make a couple of fair points underneath the bear baiting.

Sideshow Bob

I agree, the research is still early days and is not very statistically significantly however it is very promising. And as an osteapath I know you would see many quack remedies pushed by all the levels of pond scum down to naturapaths. However, the research has been progressing for some years now and appears to be suceeding. You assume that human behaviour will improve and preventative behaviour can be obtained. I'm sure you have trouble getting patients to do weight training.

I also agree with the fact that the direction of medicine is trying to change, but as the equipment get smaller in design and emergency situations occur requiring treatment such as heart transplant which is not often possible on short notice then this equipment is at its best. Not all disease is slowly progressive, heart damage can occur suddenly due to viruses, blockages etc.
I therefore disagree that there is not a market for this product.

The third valid point regarding competitors, of cpourse this is tru, and I agree this makes the risk in this company all the greater however it may still succeed aqs have others and there are a lot of factors that will effect this.
I would say that Ventracor has the advantage of being focused and having built up a high level of knowledge from being in the field a long time and having built up practical experience. It also benefits from the excellent level of knowledge of the Australian (and NZ) medical and scientific establishments.

Of course other competitors have other advantages.

I am not saying its a buy. I own very few, But I think you are too harsh as to the possibilities.

In addition, there are over 50 implants now.
European CE mark trial is taking place.
The application for funds took place and it is expected the rights issue will also be successful.

In the end, there are obstacles and risks.

We shall see.

visual

Duc,
the people who are having the ventrassist have reached the end of the road as far as other medication or methods are concerned or are you saying that these eminent doctors are somehow lying to their patients for the benefit of vcr. all over the world?

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Research hospitals and doctors are paid by VCR vast sums of money to perform the research.............who did you think paid for it, or did you just think doctors and hospitals were altruistic?

That in of itself is a bias, and cannot be discounted within a statistical analysis, therefore the research methodology must be of a very high standard to show that these and other biases have been controlled, allowed for within the research design.

Therefore, with such a low absolute number of patients.....50, this just cannot be adequately accounted for. Therefore, immediately the research is flawed, and badly flawed.

The implant also does not *treat* all forms of CHF.
One example already given, Aortic stenosis. VCR's implant in this type of patient with CHF............total waste of time.

Therefore, what percentage of patients presenting with a diagnosis of CHF present with aortic stenosis? Cut your revenue forcasts immediately by that % number.

Another example; diastolic dysfunction. This also would not be treatable by VCR's implant, so reduce the revenues by that % also.

Another example; Volume overload states, anemia & hyperthyroidism.
Reduce revenues by that %

May I suggest that you visit the ventracor website and see the information released to the market and then at least you can make an informed decision. Other than that, ram away.

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I have looked at their website.
Do you realize that it is expensed instead of being capitalized under PP&E?

Did you realize that 30 pages odd (out of 88) of the Annual report deals with compensation structures for the directors and executives.
Two pages deal with the strategy of research, marketing etc.
That is a disgrace.
VCR paid $719,000.00 to get rid of Spooner, oops, no, you the shareholder paid.

Knob

I agree, the research is still early days and is not very statistically significantly however it is very promising.

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It is not early days. This has been a very long process, and very expensive.
There is no statistical significance whatsoever.

However, the research has been progressing for some years now and appears to be suceeding.

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How do you measure success.
22 patients based on a minimum follow up period of 3yrs.
Death rate = 4.5%
Technological failure (equipment) = 100%
Adverse effects (complications) = 22%

You assume that human behaviour will improve and preventative behaviour can be obtained. I'm sure you have trouble getting patients to do weight training.

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Behavioural modification;
The eternal failing of the human race. The first relevant point made.
There have been studies performed, I shall have a look when I have some time and see if the numbers support your assertion.

Not all disease is slowly progressive, heart damage can occur suddenly due to viruses, blockages etc.
I therefore disagree that there is not a market for this product.

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See previous answer, but in a *blockage* this device is useless.
The applicability of the device is very causal dependant, simply a diagnosis of CHF means very little in isolation.

This stock is a speculative proposition.
It must be trade managed with speculative tools viz. technical analysis.
On a Fundamental basis, this is just not a valid selection.

jog on
d998

I agree with you duc, that on a fundamental investment principles this investment does not pass muster.

The roadblock I can foresee that makes this company such a difficult investment is that the device Ventracor sells is a third generation device and a fourth generation, which it's competitors are working on, is required. The fourth generation device does not require cables exiting the body and takes into account other advances.

The long process, especially in the US, means that the existing device will be redundant when it is approved. Then there will be a fight for a small number of patients to get the next lot of trials operating against many competitors, some with large amounts of money to draw on. It is therefore very important that Ventracor becomes the preferred provider with it's present product in Europe so that it can create the cashflow and the reputation to give it an advantage e.g. like Cochlear.

Too many things must go right. Not only have the company survive but the present dilution of shareholders must stop. I personally doubt Ventracor will achieve this, even if they succeed long term. If I was the Ventracor CEO, I would be looking to merge with a powerful competitor to protect shareholders interests.

Duc, I enjoy debate as much as the next person. Your somewhat vitreolic initial comments raised my hackles. You have however helped me to crystallise my thought on this company and for that I thank you. Now if you can just sound a little less like Sideshow Bob on a murder spree...

ducati1961 said:

Research hospitals and doctors are paid by VCR vast sums of money to perform the research.............who did you think paid for it, or did you just think doctors and hospitals were altruistic?

That in of itself is a bias, and cannot be discounted within a statistical analysis, therefore the research methodology must be of a very high standard to show that these and other biases have been controlled, allowed for within the research design.

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Quick question Duc - I don't know anything about Ventracor but aren't the problems you highlight concerning research bias and statistical samples the same across the board for all cutting edge medical research? When it all comes down to it you are dealing with :

a) People who are developing a product and want it to work
b) People who are terminally ill

Regards
Duckman

Knob

Duc, I enjoy debate as much as the next person. Your somewhat vitreolic initial comments raised my hackles. You have however helped me to crystallise my thought on this company and for that I thank you. Now if you can just sound a little less like Sideshow Bob on a murder spree...

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Someone has to be the bad guy. I'm the man for the job!


Duck

Quick question Duc - I don't know anything about Ventracor but aren't the problems you highlight concerning research bias and statistical samples the same across the board for all cutting edge medical research?

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Yes they are.
And when they are done badly, or fudged, you have problems.
Look at MERCK and VIOXX in the US.
Bad research, bad conclusions, bad outcome.

The difference is that MRK has possibly adequate financial strength to survive
VCR is a financial mess. Add to that all the aforementioned problems, and is this really where you want your cash?

jog on
d998

So Duc,
your problem with vcr is that its a start up company and not an established company like Merck ect... therefore unable to take a hit like a moneyed Merck.

I would think then that vcr has to be very careful about dotting its I and crossing its Ts so that it doesnt end up in the scrap heap.So far I think that its done well,yes it takes a lot of money but in the end the product works better than expected and thats what all these trials are all about,doubt whether anyone is going to rush vcr through whatever channel it has to go through ,unlike Merck who could supposedly afford to.

Excerpt from FN Arena 11/4/06:

"VCR is rated as a buy with a price target of $1.64. The company's US feasibility trial recruitment is expected to be finished within 4 weeks. In addition, the company's rights issue closes on 11/4/06."

I got burned on this one when somebody told me it would be the next Cochlear.
Maybe it will, but bugger me, it's got a long way to go.
Why take such a huge punt on this kind of technology when other sectors of the market are going ballistic??

:horse: :band :horse:

placement closed heavily over subscribed...

a few people still believe in this stock...!

In regards to the placement, just further dilution of existing shareholders equity............and ever larger profits required to provide a return.

Looks as if the market is not overly impressed with this horrid little business.

jog on
d998

vcr, back on track for a september launch. :

hmmmmmmmmmm,
Intelligent investor,has just compared vcr with coh,
but instead of comparing the two compaines at the same stage they are comparing coh as from now and vcr starting out,you`d think they would`ve done the comparison from when coh started out.

After all ,that would`ve made more sense.Glad my subscription is running out,because now I know that I`ve wasted my money,great experts!

Late in 2003 I watched the Duc make his first post on another site about VCR when it was being heavily ramped while it was trending down from the heady high of $3.19, and moved down to the low $2.00 range.

Duc actually spent a lot of time researching his arguments and backing them up with facts, which in the end the VCR “rampers” wouldn’t counter. A lot of people were duped by the rampers making the same old arguments echoing the propaganda being dished out by VCR’s marketing arms; and they lost significant amounts of money based on the never ending promises of huge and growing world markets made up of elderly patients just queuing up to be saved by this “amazing new technology”.

It is now mid 2006, not late 2003, and we’re still waiting, only to see the company is still issuing new share offers, diluting the existing share holdings yet again. As for the previous CEO, he bailed when he saw the writing on the wall.

I believe the Duc is passionate and sincere about his arguments, and feels a moral obligation to offer the opposing viewpoint from those who post optimistically and, respectfully, naively about VCR. I share this sentiment, and would like to stand firmly in support of the Duc’s well argued and researched case. I have read all his arguments, and find them persuasive over the years. Anyone that knows me from previous incarnations on other sites knows that in these issues I am an ardent sceptic and do not make this kind of statement lightly.


Regards,



Magdoran

Mag,
I dont know why you or Duc, are still bothering then.
Obviously you cant save everyone so why dont you concentrate on issues that will garner you much better success.

You both claim that vcr is a dud yet you keep yourselves well informed. Surely it cant be because you care about the rest of us so much.So what is it?
Hope you`re not calling me a ramper or spammer,that I would find extremely offensive and under those circumstances I would expect Joe to take action and ban me. Or caution you.

Hello Visual,


Even though we have not conversed before, I have known your posts to be piquant and well thought out.

If you had followed my posts and the Duc’s posts on other sites over the years, you would know that the Duc and I (amongst many others) have had some wide ranging debates on a variety of issues where we held opposing viewpoints, and sometimes came to agreements, much like any discussion.

On this issue, however, I saw this thread in passing today, and felt that since you seemed to think he was insincere in your previous post, that he deserved some support on this issue since I do think that his motives are sincere despite his argumentative tone. As for your passing comment about being informed, it isn’t hard when you are a professional, and it is your business to keep abreast of a range of market information.

I also feel a moral obligation whenever I see VCR to support cautionary posts to alert newer investors and traders to the risks involved. I personally know of several investors that lost thousands of dollars in the past based on the same old hype VCR put out back in 2003 onwards.

Surely Visual you are not opposed to me expressing my opinion on this thread simply because I hold an alternative viewpoint to you, are you?

By the way, I did not say VCR was a dud. I object to the way the information is disseminated in a way that does not tell the whole story, and suggest that newer investors should be cautioned as to the speculative nature of the stock. Surely it is reasonable that less informed investors might be given the opportunity to view a range of opinions, or are you suggesting that this is a thread reserved for pro VCR posters only?

Now, what concerns me Visual is the hostile tone you have adopted with me for posting an opinion. Now why is that? Also, you jump to the conclusion that I’m accusing you of ramping, which if you read my post I clearly have not. I referred to the situation in the past. Then you threaten me with some kind of caution for expressing my opinion. Curious. Why the angst at this personal level?

It is precisely this kind of reaction that concerns me about objectivity in posts about a stock that has had such a chequered history – even “BraceFace” makes a comment along these lines.

What I wonder about is your motives for such outright hostility right from the word go. Is your outburst based on a long term personal issue with me, or perhaps you just like to shoot the messenger? I also object to your insinuation that there is some sinister motive for “caring about other investors” – some of us Visual are actually moral, and feel very strongly about investors being misled (especially if people close to them had been affected). Now, I’ve said my piece, I will leave it there. I really don’t like to get involved in “shooting wars”, but I will make an exception and take a stance on principle when required as I have done here.


Regards


Magdoran

Magdoran said:

Late in 2003 I watched the Duc make his first post on another site about VCR when it was being heavily ramped while it was trending down from the heady high of $3.19, and moved down to the low $2.00 range.

Duc actually spent a lot of time researching his arguments and backing them up with facts, which in the end the VCR “rampers” wouldn’t counter. A lot of people were duped by the rampers making the same old arguments echoing the propaganda being dished out by VCR’s marketing arms; and they lost significant amounts of money based on the never ending promises of huge and growing world markets made up of elderly patients just queuing up to be saved by this “amazing new technology”.

It is now mid 2006, not late 2003, and we’re still waiting, only to see the company is still issuing new share offers, diluting the existing share holdings yet again. As for the previous CEO, he bailed when he saw the writing on the wall.

I believe the Duc is passionate and sincere about his arguments, and feels a moral obligation to offer the opposing viewpoint from those who post optimistically and, respectfully, naively about VCR. I share this sentiment, and would like to stand firmly in support of the Duc’s well argued and researched case. I have read all his arguments, and find them persuasive over the years. Anyone that knows me from previous incarnations on other sites knows that in these issues I am an ardent sceptic and do not make this kind of statement lightly.


Regards,



Magdoran

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Mag,
the tone of your post above,leaves very little doubt as to the opinion you are trying to convey. I really dont know who you are so for you to assume that I know you and am perhaps making a personal statement about you is highly paranoid. If you read my other posts on this thread you will see that I am fully aware that this stock is speculative,and never at any stage have I even sounded like someone who would ever recommend it to anyone else. As for knowing you from other sites,which? I dont go to other sites,more computer illiteracy than not wanting to. So yes I think I`m entitled to ask,why do you and Duc spend so much time researching this stock if you are not interested yourself?

Visual,

I have already answered your questions; please re read my last post. You did not do me the courtesy of answering any of my questions. Maybe you should reconsider the appropriateness of your abrupt outburst and unwarranted hostility.

Magdoran

Mag,

honestly what is it that you are asking?

anyway,after further consideration,dont care.
Bye.