VCR - Ventracor Limited
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Its a frustrating time to be holding VCR, it seems that everytime they release positive news im'patient' shareholders sell into the rally.
Its a frustrating time to be holding VCR, it seems that everytime they release positive news im'patient' shareholders sell into the rally.
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Re=heartware,starting the human trials,
how do you think will affect vcr.
I`m trying to stay positive seeing that the ce mark is not too far away but the price keeps falling althought the volume is fairly small.
Anyone have a different opinion.
Re=heartware,starting the human trials,
how do you think will affect vcr.
I`m trying to stay positive seeing that the ce mark is not too far away but the price keeps falling althought the volume is fairly small.
Anyone have a different opinion.
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
My opinion is this:
Heartware starting human trials will affect those in for the quick buck on Ventracor. But, Ventracor has already had many trials and is ahead of the game in that respect. Trials dealing with hearts require significant elapsed time before they can be evaluated. VCR are ahead of the game in this respect.
While my personal long term (3 years) price target for Ventracor is $3.37, I am not going to be dissapointed or surprised if doesn't get there. My price target is based on the share trading at a PER of 15, fixed costs of $40million, $140K payment per device, 0.7 variable margin per device. ABN Amro assume that Ventracor will capture 20% of the 60,000 market by 2014. I assume that by 2008 Ventracor will be looking 720 patients annually. I could be way of the ball here, but hey no one is Nostradamus.
Until Ventracor receive revenues and post profits, there is no reason for the share price to move, except for how close the trials and approval phase is correlating with the companie's plan. Unfortunately, hype will probably be responsible for most movements. The same applies to Heartwave.
I am a bit annoyed that I didn't double down and purchase Heartware shares as well. There is probably room in the market for both.
visual said:Re=heartware,starting the human trials,
how do you think will affect vcr.
I`m trying to stay positive seeing that the ce mark is not too far away but the price keeps falling althought the volume is fairly small.
Anyone have a different opinion.
My opinion is this:
Heartware starting human trials will affect those in for the quick buck on Ventracor. But, Ventracor has already had many trials and is ahead of the game in that respect. Trials dealing with hearts require significant elapsed time before they can be evaluated. VCR are ahead of the game in this respect.
While my personal long term (3 years) price target for Ventracor is $3.37, I am not going to be dissapointed or surprised if doesn't get there. My price target is based on the share trading at a PER of 15, fixed costs of $40million, $140K payment per device, 0.7 variable margin per device. ABN Amro assume that Ventracor will capture 20% of the 60,000 market by 2014. I assume that by 2008 Ventracor will be looking 720 patients annually. I could be way of the ball here, but hey no one is Nostradamus.
Until Ventracor receive revenues and post profits, there is no reason for the share price to move, except for how close the trials and approval phase is correlating with the companie's plan. Unfortunately, hype will probably be responsible for most movements. The same applies to Heartwave.
I am a bit annoyed that I didn't double down and purchase Heartware shares as well. There is probably room in the market for both.
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
It will only take a few more of these & a bit of news to finally get VCR running like we are used to. The following recommendation is from Morgans in todays Australian Investment Review -
2006 Healthcare Tips From ABN Amro Morgans
January 09 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
At the beginning of 2005, healthcare analysts at ABN Amro Morgans selected two stocks to watch. Genepharm Australasia (GAA) subsequently returned 30% and Alchemia (ACL) 55%. Feeling a bit chuffed, the analysts are giving it another shot.
Three stocks are in focus for 2006. Alchemia gets another run, as its synthetic heparin project is on track and is expected to be launched in the US in 2008. Other promising projects are in cancer, eye disease and anti-bacterial products. ABN suggests Alchemia has a number of value enhancing milestones anticipated in 2006.
Ventracor (VCR) is another contender, as the CE Mark Trial for Ventracor’s heart pump, the VentrAssist, is expected to complete recruitment in 1Q06, approval is expected in July 06, and first sales in Europe and Australia towards the end of 06.
Finally, the pick of the large caps is Sonic Healthcare (SHL). In Europe, further acquisitions are possible, says ABN, which the analysts have not yet factored in. There is also potential for revenue increases in Australian and NZ pathology and diagnostic imaging, due to increases in government spending. The analysts are forecasting 20%+ organic earnings growth in their model from FY06-8 (which compares well with global competitors at 8-13%).
It will only take a few more of these & a bit of news to finally get VCR running like we are used to. The following recommendation is from Morgans in todays Australian Investment Review -
2006 Healthcare Tips From ABN Amro Morgans
January 09 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
At the beginning of 2005, healthcare analysts at ABN Amro Morgans selected two stocks to watch. Genepharm Australasia (GAA) subsequently returned 30% and Alchemia (ACL) 55%. Feeling a bit chuffed, the analysts are giving it another shot.
Three stocks are in focus for 2006. Alchemia gets another run, as its synthetic heparin project is on track and is expected to be launched in the US in 2008. Other promising projects are in cancer, eye disease and anti-bacterial products. ABN suggests Alchemia has a number of value enhancing milestones anticipated in 2006.
Ventracor (VCR) is another contender, as the CE Mark Trial for Ventracor’s heart pump, the VentrAssist, is expected to complete recruitment in 1Q06, approval is expected in July 06, and first sales in Europe and Australia towards the end of 06.
Finally, the pick of the large caps is Sonic Healthcare (SHL). In Europe, further acquisitions are possible, says ABN, which the analysts have not yet factored in. There is also potential for revenue increases in Australian and NZ pathology and diagnostic imaging, due to increases in government spending. The analysts are forecasting 20%+ organic earnings growth in their model from FY06-8 (which compares well with global competitors at 8-13%).
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
some interesting parcels going through today also yesterday,could it be that some news is on the way.
I`m not quite sure this is a logical question,vcr is running out of money,well not dangerously so but they keep employing all these people who presumably they poach off other companies as in todays ann.My question is,where is the money coming from,or are these people not paid all that well?
some interesting parcels going through today also yesterday,could it be that some news is on the way.
I`m not quite sure this is a logical question,vcr is running out of money,well not dangerously so but they keep employing all these people who presumably they poach off other companies as in todays ann.My question is,where is the money coming from,or are these people not paid all that well?
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Hi Visual,
From Aegis evaluation on the 6/1/6
They have set a price target of $1.39 for twelve months, though they haven't explictly stated how many units they expect Ventracor to move by end of 2006, which in 12 months should be the main driver.
Hi Visual,
From Aegis evaluation on the 6/1/6
They have set a price target of $1.39 for twelve months, though they haven't explictly stated how many units they expect Ventracor to move by end of 2006, which in 12 months should be the main driver.
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
I've been looking at this company for years waiting for a suitable time to buy in.
I have decided now is the time. In two years time this company could be well on the way to becoming another Cochlear.
I've been looking at this company for years waiting for a suitable time to buy in.
I have decided now is the time. In two years time this company could be well on the way to becoming another Cochlear.
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Just my opinion but its looking like the Evans and Tate story and the charts are similar as well.
Just my observation..
Just my opinion but its looking like the Evans and Tate story and the charts are similar as well.
Just my observation..
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Is this sarcasm or dark humour I am not yet privy too comprehend?
Apart from the X and Y axes there are no similarities between those charts. ETW has been a long term downward trend with a long established product. It's high volume correlated to sharp and fast fall in the share price.
On the other hand, VCR, that has not yet established it's product in the market place. During the high volume period VCR appreciated at a steady pace.
There are absolutely no similarities between these companies, their charts, or the drivers for the share price.
TheAnalyst said:
Is this sarcasm or dark humour I am not yet privy too comprehend?
Apart from the X and Y axes there are no similarities between those charts. ETW has been a long term downward trend with a long established product. It's high volume correlated to sharp and fast fall in the share price.
On the other hand, VCR, that has not yet established it's product in the market place. During the high volume period VCR appreciated at a steady pace.
There are absolutely no similarities between these companies, their charts, or the drivers for the share price.
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
But the down trend pattern over a same period of time is similar and both heading the same way...both have no dividend either....unless of course they are forming a longterm pennant pattern???
xo
ralphski said:
But the down trend pattern over a same period of time is similar and both heading the same way...both have no dividend either....unless of course they are forming a longterm pennant pattern???
xo
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Analyst,
are you seriously comparing a wine company with a medical invention
wine =glut lower prices
vcr=lives
yes even given that several companies are already supplying the same market it will never equal to wine.
Analyst,
are you seriously comparing a wine company with a medical invention
wine =glut lower prices
vcr=lives
yes even given that several companies are already supplying the same market it will never equal to wine.
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
RE= vcr volume hotting up generally when this happens it means that the people who are privy to the information first are getting excited,I noticed at least one trade this morning for 100th. just got back so don`t know if other of the same size have gone through however havent seen volume hit a million for a while ,so there goes
RE= vcr volume hotting up generally when this happens it means that the people who are privy to the information first are getting excited,I noticed at least one trade this morning for 100th. just got back so don`t know if other of the same size have gone through however havent seen volume hit a million for a while ,so there goes
Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
Yes, but Evans and Tate is making money on products right now. VCRs share price is being traded on speculation / belief that they will make money in the future from a product that is yet to enter the market place.
Please don't ask me for figures / costs like you did in the MGX thread, but a bottle of Evans and Tate wine costs $20, with literally thousands of alternatives.
With VCR each device will generate circa $130,000. There is but a handful of competitors, with only one already implanting devices. VCR is next. HeartWare, whose shares I wish I had purchased, are about 18 months behind VCR. Because of the high barriers of entry, as long as the product does get approval for Europe and US, VCR will have very little competition, and people will have very little choice about getting the device implanted, because otherwise they die....
There are no similarities in the supply chain or consumer behaviour regarding these two products.
....argghhhh is this post filmed on totally hidden video?
TheAnalyst said:
Yes, but Evans and Tate is making money on products right now. VCRs share price is being traded on speculation / belief that they will make money in the future from a product that is yet to enter the market place.
Please don't ask me for figures / costs like you did in the MGX thread, but a bottle of Evans and Tate wine costs $20, with literally thousands of alternatives.
With VCR each device will generate circa $130,000. There is but a handful of competitors, with only one already implanting devices. VCR is next. HeartWare, whose shares I wish I had purchased, are about 18 months behind VCR. Because of the high barriers of entry, as long as the product does get approval for Europe and US, VCR will have very little competition, and people will have very little choice about getting the device implanted, because otherwise they die....
There are no similarities in the supply chain or consumer behaviour regarding these two products.
....argghhhh is this post filmed on totally hidden video?
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Re: Ventracor (VCR) falling from a high horse
I realise they are not the same type of company it just seems at the moment the market feels the same way about them...and i seem to think the chart shows that for this period of time..its not so much that the chart captures the two companies as they are both different..but i think the chart at mid point actually is a picture of the feelings or emotions of the market participants at this time.
People are waiting and standing back looking for a bit of direction and positives to be confirmed...the medical device approval will surley change the chart pattern once the good news hits..well...wine have to wait until demand out strips supply i think and thats the key the glut will be around longer than we will be waiting for that approval announcement and thats where the chart will change.
ralphski said:
I realise they are not the same type of company it just seems at the moment the market feels the same way about them...and i seem to think the chart shows that for this period of time..its not so much that the chart captures the two companies as they are both different..but i think the chart at mid point actually is a picture of the feelings or emotions of the market participants at this time.
People are waiting and standing back looking for a bit of direction and positives to be confirmed...the medical device approval will surley change the chart pattern once the good news hits..well...wine have to wait until demand out strips supply i think and thats the key the glut will be around longer than we will be waiting for that approval announcement and thats where the chart will change.
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Hi visual
I just had a quick look at today's ann out of curiosity and yes it looks encouraging, but imo there are 2 basic fundamental issues to consider for anyone looking to buy as a long term investment as opposed to someone looking to make a quick buck trading the hype/ramping (I'm not saying you're ramping - but VCR used to be a rampers' favourite at another site).
1) I see commsec forcasts have 2007 and 2008 EPS forcasts as -5.4cps and +4.4cps respectively.
So before buying for the long term I would want to know if those forcasts take into account the event's in today's ann....ie....does today's ann change the market's expectations for the time table to production.
2) If the 2008 EPS forcast of +4.4cps isn't brought forward or upgraded as a result of today's ann then VCR already is on a prospective PER of ~24.5 and so any short term rally might be short lived.
Bottom line: unless someone just wants to take a punt on any hype, do your own research especially on stocks like VCR before buying.
Food for thought and good luck to anyone buying now and to those currently suffering long term holders
cheers
bullmarket
visual said:wooohohooo,vcr has completed its trial
and we are off.yepepep
I just had a quick look at today's ann out of curiosity and yes it looks encouraging, but imo there are 2 basic fundamental issues to consider for anyone looking to buy as a long term investment as opposed to someone looking to make a quick buck trading the hype/ramping (I'm not saying you're ramping - but VCR used to be a rampers' favourite at another site).
1) I see commsec forcasts have 2007 and 2008 EPS forcasts as -5.4cps and +4.4cps respectively.
So before buying for the long term I would want to know if those forcasts take into account the event's in today's ann....ie....does today's ann change the market's expectations for the time table to production.
2) If the 2008 EPS forcast of +4.4cps isn't brought forward or upgraded as a result of today's ann then VCR already is on a prospective PER of ~24.5 and so any short term rally might be short lived.
Bottom line: unless someone just wants to take a punt on any hype, do your own research especially on stocks like VCR before buying.
Food for thought and good luck to anyone buying now and to those currently suffering long term holders
cheers
bullmarket
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ok, sorry visual
bullmarket
bullmarket
