VAU - Vault Minerals

Beatle; Interesting point. It would be benifitial at the end of the day to be listed around the house - should help the SP.

I thought that perhaps RED was also on the Canadian exchange? I could be thinking of another stock though, can't remember.

Should be an OK week, but I don't know if anyone has noticed - it takes RED a long time to recover from hits and breakouts are hard to come by in this Stock.

At this time of posting the ASX is up over 80 points (XAO) and RED's sp has only moved a notch in the Bid/Ask section.

On a side note, The price of Gold is trading in that tight range for quite some time, but the Aussie price has dwindled slightly. I made some very nice paper money on IG Markets trading the spot gold Also took a long position for the week on RED as I expect to see 0.205cps by weeks end and entry at 0.195cps.
I think I mentioned earlier that I got my 0.185cps order filled, so it's good to see some early profits from that parcel.

Hi LMS, its amazing to see how RED is performing today, especially as we get close to the end of the month knowing what positive things are likely to occur in the coming 5 weeks. Will those selling now regret it, will us who remain positive regret not buying more. I keep wondering what will initiate the next move up, of course I'm convinced its just around the corner, will it have to wait for the gold pour to occur or some other step, presumably before that much awaited gold pour.

For me its just a matter of a short time, not IF but WHEN!

I'm waiting impatiently RED...

beatle said:

Hi LMS, its amazing to see how RED is performing today, especially as we get close to the end of the month knowing what positive things are likely to occur in the coming 5 weeks. Will those selling now regret it, will us who remain positive regret not buying more. I keep wondering what will initiate the next move up, of course I'm convinced its just around the corner, will it have to wait for the gold pour to occur or some other step, presumably before that much awaited gold pour.

For me its just a matter of a short time, not IF but WHEN!

I'm waiting impatiently RED...

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No mate - this Gold Pour is going to do little to the SP. I do not expect anything over 25cps by Nov' at which point I will be offloading the complete holdings.

If you are expecting the full valuation, you are going to have to wait until next year in my honest opinion - that is a mere speculation. Then again waiting should not be an issue for most of the holders here who have been inthe game for years as I've only been in for months.

May be food for thought ? Could be a familiar name or two on there and a good insight into some "peers"..



(Obviously not from RED's) website.

That is fair enough, Jeff.

Though it is a well known fact that RED will not be producing Gold that would match the likes of the big boys; I believe most people are waiting for the NPV or near price that it should be before being satisfied with the stock.

Though I duely respect the long term holders who have been in RED for years, I do feel that my target price is end-game, for the time being.

AS an adjunct, Integra had an ann, on 27/9/10 of their first gold pour. Their sp at the time was close to 0.50c. hitting a high of 0.76c mid December. A close of 0.48c today.

I know Valencias and Navels are different. I would like to hear peoples opinions on whether RED will go down thw same track, as I have difficulty understanding whats in the ground in these two cases to make their scenarios different.

Hi all RED club members. Beatle I'm with you on this one. Its just a matter of time at the moment. I don't know if an announcement will trigger the run up with the SP, or just the fact we are nearing production status. I myself predict the latter...

As for the consolidation, it is going to take some getting use to, if of course voted in. But if it will draw more instos in, eradicate the threshold that some institutional investors have (which in turn will only push the Sp higher), than I'm all for it.

I put my money where my mouth is today and topped up with 65 000 at 19. I'm not at all boasting about my purchase, rather letting people know that we are not going to see these prices in the next month or two. In fact probably never see them again with RED. It would have been nice to spend that amount at 13 or 14 cents, but lets face it, those prices are long gone. The next week or two is probably the LAST CHANCE you will have to top up at the sub 20 level.

Look at the big picture. Explorer to PRODUCER within 5 weeks. Dig deep my friends, i don't believe you'll regret it...

Cheers Moit...

Does anyone else think that the SP consolidation may bring volatility to the stock? I feel that it will not only attract insto's but also traders as well. I don't know if that is a good or bad thing.

Just to follow up on my comments. So if RED is listed at other exchanges, will they place an offering of new shares, or simply trade the same shares? If they offer new shares, won't that obviously dilute and devalue all current holders' shares?

And if it will trade the same shares, must they not be priced the same (after currency conversion), otherwise could you engage in arbitrage?

Again, I haven't got experience with that sort of stuff before, so anyone who does please feel free to pour the knowledge



In regards to today's SP action, I was very surprised this morning, largely because personally I do not see the source of the rally, and so I called shenanigans and refused to buy. I was quite relieved to check back at 3:50pm and see my views were vindicated, at least for RED, having it's SP retreat right to where it was.

I do agree broadly with this comment though:

Moit said:

The next week or two is probably the LAST CHANCE you will have to top up at the sub 20 level.

Click to expand...

Barring anything catastrophic, this is in line with my predictions. I will continue to watch closely over the course of this week.


One more question. Today I got what I think was an annual report for RED in the mail, along with some voting papers for various matters (such as the share consolidation). I am wondering, since I have had sold RED since they sent this out, am I still eligible to vote? Is eligibility determined on the date they send the papers?


Cheers

Starcraftmazter said:

Just to follow up on my comments. So if RED is listed at other exchanges, will they place an offering of new shares, or simply trade the same shares? If they offer new shares, won't that obviously dilute and devalue all current holders' shares?

And if it will trade the same shares, must they not be priced the same (after currency conversion), otherwise could you engage in arbitrage?

Again, I haven't got experience with that sort of stuff before, so anyone who does please feel free to pour the knowledge



In regards to today's SP action, I was very surprised this morning, largely because personally I do not see the source of the rally, and so I called shenanigans and refused to buy. I was quite relieved to check back at 3:50pm and see my views were vindicated, at least for RED, having it's SP retreat right to where it was.

I do agree broadly with this comment though:



Barring anything catastrophic, this is in line with my predictions. I will continue to watch closely over the course of this week.


One more question. Today I got what I think was an annual report for RED in the mail, along with some voting papers for various matters (such as the share consolidation). I am wondering, since I have had sold RED since they sent this out, am I still eligible to vote? Is eligibility determined on the date they send the papers?


Cheers

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Haha, Star.

Got the same report in my mail box today as well - looked official. Nice Annual Report and some voting papers to elect directors that I have no idea about.

Hi All, good to see the posts but sad to see the shocking trading in RED at the moment. I simply can't believe we are still sitting at this level, especially in a week that I would have thought would provide some excitement for RED shareholders. Of course the week is still young so lets hope that we get some positive announcements out soon.

As for some of the comments/questions:

Buckfont. A comparision with IGR is quite apt I would say, although noting the different sovereign risk profiles, with IGR operating out of Western Australia (not necessarily all positive, with the mining tax looming!).

I will refer to RED noting that its yet to get into production, at a rate not dissimilar to IGR. In terms of the operations IGR is quite a low cost gold producer at just over A$500 per ounce, and RED is expected to be similar. Both start as open pits, with IGR now planning trial underground mining, and RED will undertake U/g sometime around year 4 or 5 or 6 (bearing in mind they are in the process of changing their production schedule based on a revised resource base).

At this stage it appears IGR has around 6 years mine life, RED has 10 years based on reserves.

RED has got A$17 million cash (nil debt) at end of developing the project, IGR has a rising cash kitty with monthly gold production underway, but last reported was A$38 million cash less A$26 million debt. IGR has got some forwards in place (couldn't see how many and at what price, this is a wildcard, it could give a better or worse outlook depending on whether they are in the money at present).

Market cap of IGR currently A$404 million. RED market cap A$237 million (at 18.5 cents). Thus if we can expect RED to come online in the next month successfully then RED has an immediate outlook to move towards A$404 if we compare it to IGR. That would presume a share price move from 18.5 cents towards 31.5 cents on a pre-consolidated basis.

I would suggest that RED looks quite attractive currently compared to IGR, subject to successful commissioning and gold production.

As to the Proxy form, its an interesting question Starcraftmazter. Theoretically only those registered at 48 hours of the meeting are entitled to vote, and I'm pretty sure that the registry will null and void any votes that come in from parties not on the registry at that time, but who knows for sure, lol! In fact when I was in charge of a company I used to keep a tally of the votes that came in prior to the meeting, just to keep in touch with the sentiment of anything a bit controversial and I never thought about how that sentiment might be swayed by shareholders who sold out before the meeting. But in any event I'm pretty sure it is determined at the time of that final registration of shareholders 48 hours prior to the meeting.

And no Star, RED will NOT put more shares out to any other exchange in the event it becomes listed elsewhere. You may be aware of the American Depository Receipts that are referred to for BHP etc, its a similar arrangement for RED if it were listed elsewhere. It enables non-American domiciled companies to trade on the US markets, and it would be a similar arrangement for any other stock exchange. And between markets there is always some potential for arbitrage, but it can go both ways!

I think there may be alot hesitancy in RED due to the share consolidation. I think people could be waiting to see what happens. But thats just my thoughts...

Thanks beatle for that in depth comparison. I did alright out of IGR and hope to do the same with RED. By the way were you able to find out if they are thinking of producing a commorative 1oz bar. Management never reply to my emails.

Hi all.
I'm not sure what is going on with this Sp, but it isn't very appealing considering we are so close to first gold pour, (only weeks away ). Maybe the uncertainty of the Euro debt crisis is keeping investors from putting their hard earned into the market, OR they are waiting for an up-trend to pounce, OR an announcement that could or will prove that RED 5 LIMITED is that one step closer to producing gold...

I know i said in my last post that i believe RED will start to move in just shear knowledge, that RED is in that transition phase from explorer to producer. I still believe this maybe the case as Ive seen so many times in the past. It just takes off, and off no real unbelievable news. It goes up, then the big boys jump on, as we seen just recently when the Sp took off to 24 cents.

But, and i maybe contradicting myself, I think RED management need to have a really good think how they are going to announce this news of a GOLD explorer come producer in the Philippines, to the Australian market. Don't get me wrong RED management have done a fantastic job in getting SIANA where it is today. Though they can be a bit blasé in there announcements. I really hope they get this right. Because, we all know if it doesn't come across that well, the market wont react in a positive fashion as we have just seen with the consolidating of the shares...By no means am i bagging management as we are seeing great results regarding community support, marketing, first aid and a mine under construction. I just really prey that they as a company can pull this off to the Aussie market and beyond...

These are just my thoughts as i live and breath RED 5 daily, as a company and put every available dollar on this stock. (At times more than i should have, ask the wife.) But this is something i truly believe in and will shine in the near future...

Cheers Moit

beatle said:

But in any event I'm pretty sure it is determined at the time of that final registration of shareholders 48 hours prior to the meeting.

And no Star, RED will NOT put more shares out to any other exchange in the event it becomes listed elsewhere. You may be aware of the American Depository Receipts that are referred to for BHP etc, its a similar arrangement for RED if it were listed elsewhere. It enables non-American domiciled companies to trade on the US markets, and it would be a similar arrangement for any other stock exchange. And between markets there is always some potential for arbitrage, but it can go both ways!

Click to expand...

Thanks beatle, very good information as always


Today I got another package from the share registry, again with the same voting forms for RED


Anyway, one other thing I wanted to bring up which I have not seen any discussion of - RED's silver. RED claims they have silver deposits along with gold at the same site (correct me if wrong) and intend to produce silver. I am wondering, will their processing plant handle both? Do they intent to start producing both simultaneously? What proportion of their profit will come from silver, or better put what proportion of total minerals mined does silver make up?

It should be noted that silver behaves in a slightly different way to gold as it has far more industrial utility than gold. However it has historically been valued much higher relative to gold than it is now, whenever it backed a currency. Thus if @#$% hits the fan anytime soon, it would be quite good


Thanks

Moit, you are SPOT ON!!! And no reason to be concerned whether you offend RED management/board or not. Words of wisdom, and with much passion, and I only hope that someone associated with RED reads your words and acts on them. If I were to judge RED's attempts to market themselves I would give them a low rating. And its not me saying that due to frustration only, its because clearly there are many people out there who trade shares and really don't know about RED and its Siana gold project. Over the years I have discussed the company with so many people and it really amazes me that most have no idea of the project whatsoever, despite me talking with people who are involved in the mining industry! And on a comparative basis there are few projects so close to first production with such a long life and with low operating costs. Its a shame that the only way people will learn about it is when that production begins!

I think that Jah008 is probably correct, that some shareholders, maybe traders, are concerned with the consolidation process, maybe they associate it to the much smaller unsuccessful companies that undertake consolidations in an effort to raise funds. But as I have stated previously, RED is not doing it for that reason at all!

With regard to silver Starcraftmazter, you will note that RED occasionally refers to dore production. This is effectively the smelted product that comes out of the CIL process, a mixture of gold, silver and possibly some slight amounts of base metals (usually copper in some ores). The CIL process involves the crushed and ground ore being introduced into tanks containing sodium cyanide (plus lime for alkalinity) plus activated carbon (introduced into the leach tanks, as opposed to another process being CIP where the carbon is introduced after leaching). Firstly the cyanide solution leaches the metals out of the ore into solution, which is then attracted to carbon. Usually silver is captured in preference to the gold, but whatever the carbon contains silver, gold and base metals. This "pregnant" activated carbon is then smelted to produce a dore product. In the case of Siana there will be a fair amount of silver in the dore product, thus the dore will be higher quantities of lower fineness dore. Overall the recovery of gold to final product is higher than the overall recovery of silver but still significant amounts of silver goes into that final dore product - to the extent of an estimated 1.44 million ounces silver with the estimated 849,000 ounces of gold produced.

So in short Star, yes the silver comes out in the same circuit as the gold, it doesn't need to come out in a separate process.

So they'll be selling both gold and silver from the onset? Awesome.

Now some good news, gold has shot up by over 3% to over $1700 overnight, breaking out of it's trading range! Apparently QE hopes again.

Yes RED will be selling both gold & silver from the outset. But of course the recovered silver is already included in cash flow analysis of the NPV valuation.

The gold price moving back up last night is great news, as much as anything to highlight to the market that gold's froth & bubble remains intact, that gold equities have not yet finished enjoying their time in the sun!

I also firmly believe that coming into the Festive season we should see the cyclical trend of increasing demand for physical gold, which will cause gold traders to focus & speculate on rising prices. It would be great to see gold moving towards record prices at a time when RED announces it has begun producing gold in ever increasing monthly amounts.

Hi all RED club members. Its great to see gold up 3% over night, breaking that $1700 resistance. Lets hope it continues and with a bit of luck REDS Sp will move in conjunction.

Just a quick word and scenario on the consolidation...

A few months or so back i was checking my watch list for daily movements when i noticed CTM, Centaurus Metals Ltd went from 5.5 cents to 55 cents in a day. My smart phone read something like 1300% gain. As i was just amazed and dumb founded i thought this couldn't be right. So i rang the company. They were in the process to consolidate the companies capital on a 1 for 8 basis. As it turned out my smart phone wasn't really that smart as it wasn't a gain at all...

Much the same as RED only we are looking at a 1 for 10 basis...

So basically if you owned 100000 shares it would now be 10000. Pretty simple. Now if REDS Sp is at 20 cents at the time of pre consolidation, it would take the Sp to $2.00 post consolidation. Please correct me if i'm wrong. What i'm trying to figure out and not to sure about is what would be more difficult? Going from 20c to 40c in a re-rating, or going from $2.00 to $4.00. In theoretical terms it would be much of muchness. Ive just seen many stocks such as MGX and AGO just float around current prices. I know they are not gold stocks and market caps are very different. Imo i'm just thinking how hard it would actually be to go from $2 to $4. Unless of course we had some major instos on board. Just my thoughts once again.

Maybe Beatle can shed some light on the subject.

Lets hope today is a good day for RED. Good luck to all holders.

Hi Moit, yes its great to see the gold price moving up, and I agree that it would be great to see some more active involvement by insto's on the RED register - not just new insto's but also current insto's on board! Let's hope sooner than later.

I have a feeling that a few of the current crop are getting tired now and might be moving out, thus the reason for some largish dumps today plus earlier on. If they are moving on its no big deal if their positions can be taken out, if you recall Matthews earlier selling down from 17 odd percent had a prolonged negative impact on RED share price, I imagine Matthews could be doing similar again, but if it is and once they are free of shares, imagine the move up! (This is just supposition by me though, and also its unimaginable that a major holder like Matthews wouldn't arrange a large take out to another buyer, but they didn't do that in the recent past for some crazy reason - very amateurish, but it provides an opportunity at this critical time when we are about to get a re-rating for sure IMO of course!).

As to your comments re the consolidation process, you are quite correct that assuming shareholders approve this restructuring of capital, then theoretically we would expect the first move up on a 1 for 10 consolidation, it will go from say current share price of $0.185 cents, to $1.85. I hope that in the meantime of course that it will move up in the coming weeks due to other positive announcements.

As to what will it stay at and how easy is it to move from $2 - $4 compared to $0.20 - $0.40, well it really should work related to market perception of worth in market capitalisation terms, ie the share price x number of shares on issue. At the changeover of the consolidation the market cap should remain the same as immediately prior to consolidation, theoretically, and therefore any moves up or down on market cap thereafter will be reflected in share price according to the number of shares on issue. And thats why I keep saying that RED's share of Siana, with an NPV way above its current market cap, even at much lower gold prices, RED continues to be at a substantial discount to intrinsic value!

There is an issue that will arise too - trading volumes will reduce accordingly and this could impact on volatility of the share price, despite RED suggesting it will reduce volatility of prices due to reduced differential between trading levels (of 1 cents at the consolidated dollar value compared to the minimum 0.5 cents for trading at levels immediately above 10 cents and their relative impact on volatility - sorry but its hard to explain this point any easier for me!).