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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Atomic i think dreaming about NCM is a just that....their cap $29B..RED is a flea. Takeovers tend to happen of a size that is useful or where synergies, efficiencies or a blue sky can happen. I agree Beatle that RED only has Mapawa as an attractant over and above the obvious Siana assets and its NPV.

The reason I found OGC MD comments intriguing Atomic was their cap. is of an order where RED might tempt but also the fact that they have a Phillipine project that is valued at zero and which has had troubled past....there may be value in having a local partner/subsidiary (RED) which by now has local credibility that could benefit a project such as Didipo.
 
I agree with your view Mgm1a, that Oceanagold is a good fit with RED, and as I have said so many times before, so is Medusa although I have been reminded a number of times by others that for some crazy reason MML simply would never consider RED! Let alone the relative proximity to the operations (within 150 kms of each other) and on a share for share basis MML would get a bargain IMO AS WELL AS enhance their total reserves/resources, increase/extend annual gold production, and take advantage of their huge premium to underlying NPV utilising a scrip for scrip offer!

Fastbuck, do you know what Fat Prophets view of RED is currently - that previous report you reference is October 2010 so is now dated (and the share price was higher then!).
 
I believe RED coped pretty well with the perfect storm that confronted the market yesterday, and its interesting to know of Baker Steel moving up with another 20 plus million shares recently. Between the majors, Matthews, Baker Steel and JP Morgans we have a fairly strong group of shareholders, and surely that must comfort smaller holders that RED will make a more some time within the next couple of months once the skies clear and the mechano set is put together!
 
i was checking out MArdo's post on the other channel. From the still live substantial holder notices the top 5 own 50.8%

Mathews Capital Partners 17.7%
Bank of America 14.3%
Baker Steel 7.9%
JP Morgan 5.7%
Sprott Asset 5.2%

If the other top 20 haven't moved much (assumes they are either smart, in the know or stubbornly holding e.g. a beatle) since the annual report, then there may only be 20-25%% or 250-300m in free float
 
it would be interesting to know how many share holders there are holding 500 000 + shares , it seams the recent sell of has been caused by small holders as alot of trades have been for 20 000-30 000, being so close to first pour why would one bother of loading such small amounts?....Beatle i dont have the latest fatprofits report on red i posted the last one to show the silver content that red will produce in its first year of production, it seams the market has'nt valued the 8-10 mil it will earn from silver in the first year.....
 
So how does the price move if everyone that is holding thinks they're onto a winner and is waiting for the price to go up? There's going to have to be some great announcements and/or some decent PR stuff from management and bigger shareholders.......
 
Hurricane said:
So how does the price move if everyone that is holding thinks they're onto a winner and is waiting for the price to go up? There's going to have to be some great announcements and/or some decent PR stuff from management and bigger shareholders.......
Click to expand...

HI Hurricane.. Red 5 is really a medium term stock.The price movement will come from them going into production(4? months away) and then as production is rammped up.The other prospect is drilling results from Mapawa but that appears to be on hold due to rain delays & drill rod delays.In a further 12 months time this senario will have hopefully played out with appropriate S.P. movement.
 
Hi Guys, and some great posts. I agree with your view Mardo, although i earlier had expected an explosion in its share price with the gold pour due in the next few months, sentiment has changed to one of caution. This is entirely due to the delays with the construction as a result of excessive rain on site, and now it seems that most investors will only believe it when it happens (as per Hurricane's post - those of such little faith, lol)! And accompanied with other international uncertainties, such as Libya, Japan (what else can happen I wonder!), there are simply too many issues outstanding for investors to fully back RED until the gold is in the vault - which gives anyone of greater faith another opportunity to slowly build up a good position without having to push the share price up excessively.

Thanks Fastbuck for your comments about the silver price etc, silver has been moving towards the level when Nelson Bunker Hunt tried to corner the entire silver market so many decades ago. But of course the gold alone is going to make RED a great investment in coming months - its indicated low PE will definitely push it above 40 cents if the gold price stays anywhere near its current level!

Mgm1a, I agree that I would be included in the "stubborn" category regarding investing in RED, but who would not be feeling the same having been in the stock for more than 14 years just to miss out as it actually does produce a stack of gold. That would absolutely kill me if I were to get out at this vital stage!!! Even if the gold price comes off I won't get out now!!!
 
Beatle ..

based on the rain & "progress" photos in RED's last report, do you really believe a pour is only a few months away?

my guestimate is now more near the end of this year -- which probably is one of the reasons for the flat share price action. there is no rush to acquire this stock for quite some time

I've traded and held, but recently have sold to put my cash into more active stocks that have movement potential in a shorter time. Plenty of time to get back into RED imo.
 
Hi Auscan, good to hear from you. (And its good to see the share prices of most companies bounce back today, including RED).

Whilst I agree with you that the construction and commissioning is certainly delayed due to the extended and exceedingly high rainfall this wet season, (and that delay is confirmed by RED management as well), I believe that the time of the delay is mainly related to civils associated with concrete pours etc, as outlined in detail by geezuguys post of 6th-March-2011 01:28 AM. Thus it is likely that once the rain as stopped and the ground dried out (drying out takes only a couple of days) - and I have not checked lately as to whether this has already happened but it may well have - then we are back on track to pour foundations prior to carrying out the mechano set construction, once the foundations have cured. Noting always that significant offsite preparatory work has continued in Cebu and Manila where some of the equipment and electrical componentry is housed.

I have come round to Mardo's view that RED is more likely to move up in a slightly longer time period rather than the short term (that I had previously believed myself) due to the delays to date upsetting the shorter term investors expectations of rising share price.

BUT I don't believe it will be end of this year at all for the share price move, I would expect it to happen around June/July as news from site filters through that the commissioning is due to happen - therefore anyone not exposed at that time is likely to be missing out on that once in a lifetime chance to enjoy a significant re-rating, in my view of course!!!

BUT ALSO I agree with you that there are many good stories around at the moment and so RED is competing with those stories for investment/trading dollars - I have put some cash into some of those stories and expect a fairly large positive return from them in the meantime, and would like to be able to put more into RED at a later time in readiness for that move upwards - of course always subject to how gold is moving at that time, but my core RED investment remains in tact, and won't be moving at all till I have enjoyed that re-rating!
 
Hi Red members. This came my way yesterday. Never heard of this mob, Casimir Capital.

They are initiating coverage on Red with an overweight rating and a $0.27c price target. It`s 9 pages long so I won`t do much repetition here.

To quote:-

As a result of recent equity issuances the company has the capital to bring Siana into production Q3 2011.With $75 2mm in cash and no debt we believe Red5 has sufficient capital to bring Siana into production without the need to raise additional capital.

We believe Red5 will produce 34.4k oz of gold equivalent in 2011. We believe Red5 will produce 11k oz in the third Q 2011 and 23.4k oz during the fourth Q. We estimate its cash costs at US$635. per oz during Q4 2011.

We base our target price on Red5`s 5% discount rate NAV estimate of US$0.17c/diluted shares.Our NAV is based on various assumptions we made regarding the Companies operations, financing, and resource definition. We employ a $950/oz gold price in our life of mine model. We have also factored in trading comparable metrics (firm value to resources and firm value to 2010E production) whe calculating our price target.

------------------------------------------

This I believe is the fourth group initiating coverage on Red.
 
gday guys, what is going on? I have 80% of my p/f in RED due to my discovery of this site approx 12 months ago. I have kept buying on a fortnightly basis as my income allows, at the same time doing DD on where I am putting my hard earned. Unfortunately I have had to sell 30% of my holdings today as something came up but I feel no real remorse in doing so as I am not getting the great information and enthusiasm that was previously displayed in this forum. To my regret I have recently found a lot more knowledge on another site. Please come back Beatle and Co and help a battler out!
 
I'm no Beatle but here goes:

"hang in there little buddy, just hold out a little bit longer, the [insert act of god here] is almost finished and I've spoken to [insert name of RED management here] and we'll be re-rated in a few months"
 
Hurricane said:
I'm no Beatle but here goes:

"hang in there little buddy, just hold out a little bit longer, the [insert act of god here] is almost finished and I've spoken to [insert name of RED management here] and we'll be re-rated in a few months"
Click to expand...

:D That made my morning
 
Hi All (esp Rick64!).

Sorry I have been away on holidays the past week, and just got back onto this site this morning. I do want to make a few points re Rick64 comments:

Firstly, I'm sad to hear you had to sell some (30%) of your holding (assumedly at a loss), at this time when RED has gone to sleep. It sucks to think that RED, at a time when I personally had thought (going back some months now) it would fly due to its much anticipated pouring gold in April 2011, would be faltering along the bottom as April is just a couple of days away! But the weather has intervened and who could have predicted such a wet season event, of a magnitude that sounds like the Qld floods over again!

I think the recent announcements by RED, regarding the expected appointment of Senior Staff and board members, plus the adjusted debt facility, and the Greg Edwards interview are all positive and should go some way to reassure all shareholders that FINALLY things will fall into place as they should have some months ago!

I don't want to dwell on it but will make a simple statement here, that the variation to the debt facility does confirm my original thoughts and those of many other previous posters who were upset with the large capital raising. But thats now done and dusted.
It also probably confirms that RED are close to budget with the total capex on Siana development, and any additions, such as to provide a new and slightly bigger mill, and supplemental power plant are positive for the development. This should be reflected in higher throughput or at least more likelihood of achieving feasibility study goals.

Although RED will probably linger a lot longer at around this current share price, until the market is convinced that the Siana plant is commissioned and in fact ready to pour gold, once that happens I can see the share price flying - but how high ALWAYS remains subject to how the gold price performs over coming months. From a P/E basis RED could easily move beyond 40 cents once the plant is bedded down the cash flows are confirmed, plus whatever might happen at Mapawa exploration. I do like GE's comments regarding the additional resource potential at Siana, and I personally would like RED proving the prospectivity of other large porphyry targets on the MPSA's, including the Siana MPSA around Madja.

Rick64, IF its possible for you to hang in there until July I still stick by my original view that RED will at least double, but being greedy and very attached to my own investment in RED, I am unlikely to sell out until the real value of Siana starts to prove itself to the non-believers.

By the way, I have stopped posting so often, not as an indication of me losing interest or selling out, as I have retained my shares, but there is a limit to what can be said before RED puts those words of anticipation, into action! In the meantime I am also investing in some other small gold resource stocks to keep myself in touch with the market, but certainly my largest holding by a county mile remains RED and I will ADD MORE again once it gets closer to first gold pour day!
 
No comments from posters on what the recent ann Update on Financing means:

a.) $12m less funds for Mapawa exploration. The ann.made on 8-Oct.2010 talked of the "compelling" short term facility spelt out that $US20M would be "quarantined". So they have 20-8=12M less tagged for Mapawa

b.) Less dilution; 32m fewer shares that will to be issued

c.) The imprint of the instos are on this ann., it is the outcome of dissatisfaction votes at AGM and a swift volte-face on the prepay facility negotiated only 6 months ago.

d.) RED is now fully UNHEDGED - not sure thay this is such a good thing in the short term -1year but good beyond.

I thought the Interview was very positive - the underexplored panels in Siana hadn't been mentioned before in last 2 years since i have been on board but no doubt longer termers will be aware.

RED5 present at Casimir conference MAy 2nd in New York (http://casimirconference.com/program) so hopefully more interest then
 
Hi mgm1a, funny how I never got a bite when on my post above on the 22nd as to the report from Casimir there was no bite till now.. Nice to see you picked up on it. As I said up to the time of posting I had never heard of this company. Thanks for the further info.
 
buckfont - i presume you knew they were involved in the share placement Nov2010? along with Petra & Southern Cross? I looked into their report in depth; their numbers somewhat similar to mine but very bearish by using lowish POG for project ? but bullish in their comments about the panels in Siana being under-explored.
 
RED continues within its current range of 16 - 17 cents (ho-hummm) and its very frustrating for all to watch that happen whilst the general market has improved in the past weeks. But obviously its in this holding pattern until news finally comes through that the commissioning is imminent, at which time I would imagine there will be a rush to get more shares. How long it take for that news to get out is anyone's guess, but IMO likely to be in late June, with first gold pour in mid-July.

(Whilst waiting for this to happen with RED I have got more involved in a few other specs (eg refer the ATN thread) - far more speccy (ie riskier) than RED, but with potential to triple or more in price within the next few months - that's the only issue with RED, the "opportunity cost" of holding RED at the moment, while I will never sell a single share in RED now, I will probably buy shares at an appropriate time, from the profits of my other speccy investments down the track!).
 
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