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Hi PVF, sorry about the delay in responding. I am a worker so have to concentrate on that most of the time. I cannot really answer your question as I tend to concentrate on the Phils where I have a small understanding. I think however that it is fair to say that many small Aus resource stocks operating overseas are heavily discounted due to perceived geo-political risk but I am not sure that it can be regarded as country specific. In the Phils, there is clearly a sense of "terrorist" risk, especially southern Mindanao, and local land owner/community risk, on top of the red tape (bureaucracy) and the inevitable "commissions" that apply in getting things done. The other aspect is of course whether land or tenement ownership can occur, together with foreign company restrictions.Then of course the usual things like infrastructure requirements, capex and so on. I suppose many investors weigh it all up then shy away towards more certainty. I am not sure how you would weigh up the actual risks versus a discounted share price as this might also depend on the "marketing" output of a company. To give an example, RED has not been particularly brilliant in the feed of information to investors imo whereas I believe that MML has done this very well. At the same stage of development, if my memory serves me correctly, MML was at a considerably higher price than where RED is today. That does not mean that management is not experienced or not good,but that a more conservative approach is being taken. Of course as a shareholder I am always wanting to hear good news that might propel the SP higher. So I think there is a heck of a lot more to it than specific country geo political risks. But in saying that, others will disagree I am sure. Good luck with RED. AB:cool:
 
hey PEOPLE ,
Q. What is PHILS and

Please this is the red 5 thread not a debate about OS politics and war mongerring.
PVF thank you for your conjecture but keep it to the topic , with useful facts.

and get a life , jeez your on here more than me !!! lol
 
Atomic you say stick to discussions of RED, then you flame me, oh okay. :rolleyes:

Phils is quite obviously short for Philippines.

I do believe that the current political situation in the Philippines IS relevant to RED, if the risk of terrorist attack was high, you'd want to know about it before risking your hard earned? I just wanted to learn a bit more from AB who appears to know more than I do about the Philippines.

"Get a life" so what should I be doing right now? Going out and drinking? If I didn't analyze shares I'd be working a 40 hour a week job in some depressing shop to save for uni. Sounds very life-like.

OT: Atomic you type like a 12 year old.

Apologies if you actually are 12.
 
Mr Atomic...... You appear to have all of your foot stuck in your mouth.......

Mr PVF...... i am keen to read Beatle and your posts here and all others for that matter who can and will and some knowledge to the conversation.

cheers to all. this has been a great thread.:2twocents
 
Lets not let this thread descend into personal attacks and petty squabbling. It has been quite a constructive thread up until the last few posts.

Please stay on topic and do not attack or insult other thread participants.

Thanks! :)
 
Hi All, and good to see that RED remains in a TH, as I was concerned it might announce something relevant whilst I was out of contact, now I will be around from time to time over the next couple of days.

Wow, the thread has got a few more posters, and that is encouraging although I agree that we should be trying to keep RED as the main topic of the thread, after all this is our RED Club! (Lol!).

I have read all the previous posts, and related to ParleVousFrancais last question regarding geopolitical risk of the Philippines and RED, and how the market treats it. I will make some general and specific comments as it might help your understanding of how RED has evolved, as I have observed and understand it (you may disagree with me or not!):

I agree with Anderbond, that in the case of the Philippines, there has always been a concern about country risk, and that has resulted in a discount by the ASX market for most companies operating there, EXCEPT that some exploration companies have been able to use the perception of "elephant potential" for the country to market their particular projects - I do recall back about 12 years ago and prior to the debacle in Indonesia related to the Busang project, how many explorers, in particular Canadian but also some Australians, moved into Philippines in a big way, hoping to find the next Busang in the same sort of geological environment as Indonesia, but plagued by the administrative delays in the Phils in getting legitimate title (primarily as MPSA'a). Once Busang was uncovered as a scam the whole of the region was painted with the same brush, as a region to be beware of, and aided by the administrative delays in Phils and therefore with limited positive results from high exploration costs the market got a bad impression of Phils. Prior to that Indonesia had developed some respectability by some very significant exploration projects being turned into mines, such as Batu Hijau, Mt Muro, etc but in the case of Philippines nothing of significance was developed despite some very large resources being delineated, the biggest being Tampakan. (Separately the extremely large high grade epithermal gold of Diwalwal was being mined by co-operatives in an environmental disaster, but not by international miners, more by locals in such co-ops). And the small Lafayette disaster polymetallic project in Rapu Rapu didn't help matters for new miners in the country with its failure basically related to the environmental issues and small resources.

Come today, how things have changed, we have got MML now operating the old historic Co-o mine, after a merging with a small Australian group, and CGA eventually developed the Masbate project which had been pursued as a development on a smaller scale by an offshoot of a UK based group. Both of those projects have demonstrated that mining in Phils is very possible, despite the general hindrances that affect start ups related to title, and environmental issues, assumed related to PHils. Both those projects lie in areas with a mining mentality (similar to Siana) and provide RED shareholders with the same assurance that mining can occur once the approvals are received. In the meantime Didipio (now with Oceanic) was being looked at as a big gold/copper play but it has been a long hard road to production for that company, but getting closer to an end game on that project finally! it has been affected by the local community as part of the issue, unlike Co-o, and Siana.

AND now we have got RED, a small Perth based explorer which acquired the Siana MPSA back in about 2002 (not sure if the year is correct and I don't have the time to confirm that now), and has been through all sorts of dilemmas related to finally completing the feasibility study. It has been a long hard and rocky road, as while the project was previously a mining operation by Suricon in the late 80's, it had no resource to speak of at the time of RED acquiring it, but with the potential to develop into the JORC compliant resource/reserves we have today. BUT that timeframe for completing the technical studies was not delivered, as RED management early on promised much and under-delivered, time and time again, the most notable issues were the resources estimation of Siana, both the open pit resources, then subsequently the underground resources that were required as part of the Soc Gen financial offer made a few years ago. And the granting of MPSA title for Mapawa, oh how that became a promise never delivered. Then there was also the Anglo deal that promised much, esp whilst Boyongan exploration project was humming along up the road, but ended with nothing much to talk about at all - although it could become a considerable new gold porphyry development in time via Philex. All these past events have heavily affected the credibility of RED management to ever conclude all the issues and get a project ever into development.

That past history has been the primary reason for the huge discount of RED share price, not only geopolitical risk (but it had a hand in making things more difficult of course). It is the reason why RED has been much more severely discounted than MML - but even with MML early on you must realise that MML had its own problems, with its own project that was subject to litigation and only when MML took on the neighbouring Co-o project did it resurrect itself as well.

Now times have changed for the better, for RED now has a completed feasibility study, all the govt approvals as necessary to develop the project, from mining through to environmental, to community etc. That feasibility study, completed by industry competent professionals, highly regarded in the mining industy confirms that Siana is a very attractive mining project, with considerable economic value based on the US$800/oz optimisation study done earlier on, with cash costs around US$350/oz, for more than 850,000 ozs, plus some bonus silver. And now we are on the brink of getting the final financial package the provides the cash to unlock the gold!

Completely separate up the road, we now know that RED has got the goods in the LSY prospect to a potential gold-copper porphyry of significant grade and tonnage.

I suggest that with the production start up at Siana the whole profile of RED will change for the better, that will finally lay to rest once and for all the chequered past and develop the company as a respectable mid-tier gold mining company, based in the Philippines. And with a considerable swag of major insto's as shareholders.

Anderbonds comments about Sprott Asset Mgt are very interesting, with their prior involvement with MML - do you think they will assume to make a quick buck out of RED, or possibly pursue the chance for developing the next MML - I think the latter!

I'm excited about the future for RED, as a reasonably big shareholder (for a retail investor), enough to blow my trumpet long and hard, and Atomic I have no qualms getting on the RED thread lots of times when I'm able to, to blow loud and with complete conviction!

I also agree with Fatsohs analogy, re Kingsgate in Thailand, that RED has the potential to build itself intoa respectable Phils miner, and it has got MML and CGA to show the way!

What I do know, is that whatever price RED re-opens up on resumption, its not going to be a high as it will finally be once the insto's are ready to move it up! We are just invited to go along for the ride, if you decide to get off early, then at least you have experienced some of the action, but I really think you should think longer term to really take advantage of what the insto's will deliver us in due course! Thats my view anyway.
 
Hi Beatle, and welcome back, well for the time being anyway. A very informative and interesting post. You certainly have an extremely vast knowledge of the past and present operations in the Phils..

Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...

Just my thoughts and if anyone can shed a bit more light on the subject, please do as this is a nerve wracking wait...

Regards Moit...
 
Moit said:
Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...

Just my thoughts and if anyone can shed a bit more light on the subject, please do as this is a nerve wracking wait...

Regards Moit...
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Moit, RED has been in a Trading Halt since October 8th and it cant be traded. So there has been no determinable impact on current buy and sells and there won't be until it resumes trading.
 
RE: moit, I'm pretty sure that pre-open status means that it's in a trading halt, and without the full details of the RED financing deal announced, it'd be hard to pin down an exact value from which to buy some RED shares (hence the drying up of sellers and buys leaving their orders in the market), this is my opinion only though.
 
Hi Moit, my view is that the pre-open bids/offers are only a mask of whats behind the views of players placing such bids/offers in any company thats been in a Trading Halt, and you never know the real intentions or motivations of those that have put those bids/offers on the pre-open board. For a start are they traders, small investors or bigger insto's?

I personally don't have much concern if RED trades sideways, down or up on resumption, I will not trade out a single share although I might be encouraged to buy more shares if the price is down a tad. My firm belief remains that a move upwards will follow when the insto's want it up (thus will give your trend analysis more confidence of it moving higher), and its unlikely we will be able to get current low prices again when the insto's push the button! The price may well continue to have wild swings with both ups and downs along the way to test our intentions and resolve, but I believe that overall movement will be up.

If I 'm able to watch the open on resumption of course I will watch it, but I have no feelings of nerves at all as I believe the opening price is not crucial to where RED is ultimately heading! What I am more excited about is, that day by day we are moving closer to first gold production, that will be positive for the share price.
 
Moit said:
Hi Beatle, and welcome back, well for the time being anyway. A very informative and interesting post. You certainly have an extremely vast knowledge of the past and present operations in the Phils..

Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...

Just my thoughts and if anyone can shed a bit more light on the subject, please do as this is a nerve wracking wait...

Regards Moit...
Click to expand...

Moit as with all companies if they are in a trading halt nothing can happen.

No trades hence you comment on negative effect on current buys and sells.

Until they are reinstated which presumably is tomorrow, we all have to bide our time.

I bought in last week at 0.16c and 0.20c. through this forum and elsewhere.

I take my hat off to you beatle for all your input here and to your unwavering belief in RED. I look forward to everyones input each day.
 
Thanks for your opinion guys, thats what i was refuring to, the drying up of sellers and buyers when i presumed that you could still place bids on a pre open status.

And Beatle, thanks for your input i too won't be selling any shares what so ever. I am holding tight to my parcel through the think and thin and ups and downs...

I just hope tomorrow is positive as this has been such an anticipated ann we have all been waiting for.

Maybe i should just stop thinking and just see what tomorrow brings LOL
 
I'm sure all the RED club members were watching the screens for the much awaited announcement this afternoon, but nothing yet! At the very least if RED don't put out the announcement prior to start of market tomorrow morning RED will seek a temporary suspension from trading until the finalisation of the funding package. Maybe behind the scenes they are now, late night, preparing an announcement that allows a resumption of trading.

If RED do go into a temporary suspension, be aware that ALL previous Bids/Offers will be removed from the screen, so it starts afresh once the suspension is removed! In the case of a Trading Halt this does not apply.

Go RED (UPPPP!)
 
Well the wait will continue that bit longer with RED requesting a voluntary suspension to complete the funding, which has been over-subscribed.

The fact that the funding has been over-subscribed confirms that:
1. The money WILL be be received,
2. The Siana gold project WILL be completed,
3. RED WILL be a gold producer in the first half of 2011,
4. RED WILL be re-rated in the market.

Even if the placement price is at a discount to last market price, the shares are unlikely to come onto the market so quickly at this cheap price. So my view is don't throw the baby out with bath water, if RED placement price is low, don't sell your shares in protest, realise you are going to get a piggy-back up to a higher price soon enough! Make any buyer of your shares have to pay a premium for them, not a discount!
 
Hi RED clubhouse members, I wanted to draw your attention to an announcement dated October 5, from Rugby Mining Limited, a TSX listed coy."........the company is pleased to report that it has..........entered into agreements with Pelican Resources Limited, an ASX listed company,and All-Acacia Resources Inc, a Philippine company, over the Mabuhay Gold Project in the Philippines granting it the right to earn up to an 80% interest in the project. The Mabuhay Gold project.......is located 12 kilometres south of Surigao City..........Mabuhay is situated within a 15 kilometre radius of numerous gold and gold/copper porphyry deposits and mines, which include Philex Gold Inc's Boyongan and Bayugo gold/copper porphyry deposits, Manila Mining Corporation's previously operating gold/copper mines and Red5 Limited's Siana gold deposit. Recently Red5 announced a new gold/copper porphyry discovery at Mapawa which is positioned directly adjacent to Mabuhay's norther border. Paul Joyce, the Company's President and CEO stated"...............We believe the Mapawa porphyry discovery is part of a much larger system that we interpret might trend onto our Mabuhay Project.
Guys, there is more in the report so I suggest you look it up and have a read. The website is www.rugbymining.com
IMO this further underscores that Mapawa will be the catalyst that really drives the SP. If the potential is as big as being suggested, then we may well see a joint venture for development occur.
As a further note, I see that RED has requested suspension while the "heavily oversubscribed" CR is finalised. AB:cool:
 
Hi Beatle, Ive never experienced a trading halt before. Ive bought and sold so many stocks, and pocketed cash along the way. But this experience is all new to me and as i have finally found a company that i truly believe in, I'm curious...

So a suspended quotation. I know you don't know how long a piece of string is, but how long could this go on for. I'm Bord without my RED...

Regaurds Moit
 
beatle said:
Well the wait will continue that bit longer with RED requesting a voluntary suspension to complete the funding, which has been over-subscribed.

The fact that the funding has been over-subscribed confirms that:
1. The money WILL be be received,
2. The Siana gold project WILL be completed,
3. RED WILL be a gold producer in the first half of 2011,
4. RED WILL be re-rated in the market.

Even if the placement price is at a discount to last market price, the shares are unlikely to come onto the market so quickly at this cheap price. So my view is don't throw the baby out with bath water, if RED placement price is low, don't sell your shares in protest, realise you are going to get a piggy-back up to a higher price soon enough! Make any buyer of your shares have to pay a premium for them, not a discount!
Click to expand...

Question, what does over subscribed mean:confused: Also I'm the same boat as Moit in reguard to what happens after trading halt before? I'm looking to get into RED once it resumes so any opions are welcome.
 
First Timer said:
Question, what does over subscribed mean:confused: Also I'm the same boat as Moit in reguard to what happens after trading halt before? I'm looking to get into RED once it resumes so any opions are welcome.
Click to expand...

Ive been trading in and out of red for the last few months now and while doing so enjoying this thread.
I had a gut feeling that it was going to go into suspension so in pre-open this morning I put in a 30K order before the announcement was made,so im pretty happy that all orders cant be changed until the suspension is lifted, it looks like I will be filled mostly of under .205 :)
RED will get insto backing from this point I believe so put your seat belt on nice and tight and enjoy the ride people.
Cheers Huitzii
DYOR
 
Are you sure you can't change your orders? I had a sell order in for 25 cents before the halt, and I removed it, I double checked and can't seem to see it at all? Perhaps I misunderstood you.
 
Hi First Timer,
The funding package as you might be aware is a combination of a debt facility, and an equity raising (ie a purchase of new shares in RED issued by RED to some institutional and/or sophisticated investors). The terms of that placement are apparently being negotiated at this time according to the announcement. That placement has been oversubscribed, ie more shares have been asked for by those investors, than there are shares available to be issued.

Being over-subscribed is a positive thing as if implies there are investors interested to take up the shares, and that allows RED to get the money it seeks for the purposes related to its gold development at Siana.

If the share issue was under-subscribed we would be concerned, as it would mean the gold development would be in jeopardy, but that is clearly not the case for this equity issue with RED. Some would argue that any issue that is over-subscribed is related to the pricing, and its possible that the placement price may be quite low, thus parties can buy the shares through this issue at a discount to the quoted market price - we will find out soon what that price is prior to RED resuming its trading in the market. If the placement price is at a considerable discount to market some would argue that the market price is too high, but I suggest that no right minded investor will dump even discounted placement priced RED shares knowing the outlook for RED, with its value calculated for Siana in the 30+ cent range.
 
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