Hi Beatle. With what you're saying above how would you interpret someone dumping 1.8mil shares of RED @ 16c?
That certainly isn't a small sell.
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Hi Beatle. With what you're saying above how would you interpret someone dumping 1.8mil shares of RED @ 16c?
That certainly isn't a small sell.
Hiya Jancha i dont think you need to be too concerned about the 'dumping' at 16c because firstly, we dont know that it was indeed a dump (may have been a buy and sell play), that aimed at boosting volume. Secondly, even if it was a dump, the 1.6million was bought by a counter party, therefore even if the original seller was pessimistic towards Red's outlook, a counter party was obviously optimistic.
It is however interesting that even with the announcement, the stock remained relatively flat. Guess that to me means that everyone is waiting for the news of the financing. I remain optimistic because RED's management is obviously confident about the financing, otherwise it would not pledge close to 20m in addition to what it has already spent!. I agree with beatle in regards to the deliberate avoidance of the financing issue. That to me, signifies that it is indeed a sensitive issue atm and that the management DOES NOT wish to comment, at least at this point. Indeed, we, the management as well as any potential investor is highly interested in regards to the progress AND the management definitely knows that...therefore i like how the management is not disclosing ANY information about the financing until its final. Thats just what i think...Happy trading all.
It is however interesting that even with the announcement, the stock remained relatively flat. Guess that to me means that everyone is waiting for the news of the financing. I remain optimistic because RED's management is obviously confident about the financing, otherwise it would not pledge close to 20m in addition to what it has already spent!. I agree with beatle in regards to the deliberate avoidance of the financing issue. That to me, signifies that it is indeed a sensitive issue atm and that the management DOES NOT wish to comment, at least at this point. Indeed, we, the management as well as any potential investor is highly interested in regards to the progress AND the management definitely knows that...therefore i like how the management is not disclosing ANY information about the financing until its final. Thats just what i think...Happy trading all.
Hi All, what a volatile couple of sessions we have had, both here in Australia in aussie dollar trading (with no rate rise as was highly expected by currency traders) and on overnight on overseas markets, esp gold trading and a big jump in the Dow!
As you might know we have for the first time a slight disconnect between US$ gold price and the aussie exchange rate, with a positive result for A$ gold price!
Thus I have reworked the RED valuation model, again assuming each end of the spectrum, with either no equity or no debt in a US$40 million fund raising. The input changes due to commodity/exchange rate are:
Gold = US$1,340/oz
Silver = US$22.8/oz
A$ = US$0.972
RED valuations
Debt only US$40 million = 40 cps
Equity only US$40 million = 34 cps
Thus it makes a marginal positive gain in RED share price, and ONCE (come on RED announce it pleasssssse!) we know whether its debt or equity or mix of both, we know what the ultimate target RED price is once in production (before turning into a premium above that level!).
On another subject in reply to Jancha's question about the 1.8 million shares that were dropped near the close at 16 cents, (and Moit it does appear that 1.8 million or so were dropped in a single transaction at that time) it may or may not be related to the share trading activity that I was referring to earlier in the session - who knows if it was BOT trading as well, or whether it was an entirely independent unrelated trader! I agree with Wtang89, that whatever and whoever it was, it was met by buyer(s - possibly 1 bidder with multiple bids, but certainly not a crossing) and in the end someone put on an order of 16.5 cents Bid close to the end. So Jancha, IF you believe you know how it relates to those ?BOT? trades earlier in the session (as I have interpreted them) then please pass on your wisdom to us all. I can definitely say I have no idea what the motivation was for it, plus those queer BOT-like trades that I referred to mid-session. BOT trading for me remains a mystery.
As you might know we have for the first time a slight disconnect between US$ gold price and the aussie exchange rate, with a positive result for A$ gold price!
Thus I have reworked the RED valuation model, again assuming each end of the spectrum, with either no equity or no debt in a US$40 million fund raising. The input changes due to commodity/exchange rate are:
Gold = US$1,340/oz
Silver = US$22.8/oz
A$ = US$0.972
RED valuations
Debt only US$40 million = 40 cps
Equity only US$40 million = 34 cps
Thus it makes a marginal positive gain in RED share price, and ONCE (come on RED announce it pleasssssse!) we know whether its debt or equity or mix of both, we know what the ultimate target RED price is once in production (before turning into a premium above that level!).
On another subject in reply to Jancha's question about the 1.8 million shares that were dropped near the close at 16 cents, (and Moit it does appear that 1.8 million or so were dropped in a single transaction at that time) it may or may not be related to the share trading activity that I was referring to earlier in the session - who knows if it was BOT trading as well, or whether it was an entirely independent unrelated trader! I agree with Wtang89, that whatever and whoever it was, it was met by buyer(s - possibly 1 bidder with multiple bids, but certainly not a crossing) and in the end someone put on an order of 16.5 cents Bid close to the end. So Jancha, IF you believe you know how it relates to those ?BOT? trades earlier in the session (as I have interpreted them) then please pass on your wisdom to us all. I can definitely say I have no idea what the motivation was for it, plus those queer BOT-like trades that I referred to mid-session. BOT trading for me remains a mystery.
Hi Jancha, my apologies to you, I was absolutely glued to the close yesterday, but some how have missed the dropping of the 1.8 mill shares. I stand corrected...
Hi Beatle, you make an interesting point, that the Ann regarding the build progress, had no mention at all to do with the finance. Obviously management are keeping things very tight lipped, and as some one had previously stated, the silence is deafening...
Market sentiments are pointing toward a great day in trading, let's hope so, go red !!!
Hi Beatle, you make an interesting point, that the Ann regarding the build progress, had no mention at all to do with the finance. Obviously management are keeping things very tight lipped, and as some one had previously stated, the silence is deafening...
Market sentiments are pointing toward a great day in trading, let's hope so, go red !!!
Hi Guys
New at all this - just started dabbling in the sharemarket. I mainly hold safe and relatively-safe stocks, so this is my first real 'spec' - your enthusiasm for RED has inspired me
I would also like to thank you all for so selflessly sharing your wisdom and thoughts with others like me - very much appreciated!
New at all this - just started dabbling in the sharemarket. I mainly hold safe and relatively-safe
stocks, so this is my first real 'spec' - your enthusiasm for RED has inspired me I would also like to thank you all for so selflessly sharing your wisdom and thoughts with others like me - very much appreciated!
Hi RADV, and welcome to the RED thread, its always good to get some new posters involved!
If you have not dabbled in the smaller "spec" end of the market, then I suggest you sit back and watch how the smaller shares trade for a while before getting actively involved. And to be honest, if you consider investing in RED, if you haven't already done so, be prepared for some frustrations along the way! At times I wonder if RED refers to the colour of the paint that I'm watching dry, lol - Its so bleeding slow at times!
But hopefully RED will start to move up a gear soon. As you may have read already, RED is about to finalise the funding for its new gold development at Siana in the Philippines, and until that funding is finally bedded down and announced to the market then there are many perennial baggers of the company. Once all funds have been raised and then as it moves towards first gold production, scheduled for April 2011, its likely the company will be re-rated in the market. I've been expecting that re-rating now for a long long time (thus my comment about watching RED paint dry above), and I remain confident it WILL happen and the patient will be rewarded.
I might also make the point that RED is likely to be re-rated regardless of whether the gold price remains at US$1,340/oz or even as low as US$1,000/oz based on the fundamental valuation of Siana (so there's plenty of room for re-rating). But of course in a falling gold price environment there will be many investors moving out of gold stocks so that will likely have a negative impact on a full re-rating for RED.
The other point to note, is that my valuation remains only that covering its Siana gold project, and excludes any excess cash (beyond that required to build Siana) and value attributed to Mapawa, a very promising porphyry gold project having copper credits.
Good luck with your investing RADV
If you have not dabbled in the smaller "spec" end of the market, then I suggest you sit back and watch how the smaller shares trade for a while before getting actively involved. And to be honest, if you consider investing in RED, if you haven't already done so, be prepared for some frustrations along the way! At times I wonder if RED refers to the colour of the paint that I'm watching dry, lol - Its so bleeding slow at times!
But hopefully RED will start to move up a gear soon. As you may have read already, RED is about to finalise the funding for its new gold development at Siana in the Philippines, and until that funding is finally bedded down and announced to the market then there are many perennial baggers of the company. Once all funds have been raised and then as it moves towards first gold production, scheduled for April 2011, its likely the company will be re-rated in the market. I've been expecting that re-rating now for a long long time (thus my comment about watching RED paint dry above), and I remain confident it WILL happen and the patient will be rewarded.
I might also make the point that RED is likely to be re-rated regardless of whether the gold price remains at US$1,340/oz or even as low as US$1,000/oz based on the fundamental valuation of Siana (so there's plenty of room for re-rating). But of course in a falling gold price environment there will be many investors moving out of gold stocks so that will likely have a negative impact on a full re-rating for RED.
The other point to note, is that my valuation remains only that covering its Siana gold project, and excludes any excess cash (beyond that required to build Siana) and value attributed to Mapawa, a very promising porphyry gold project having copper credits.
Good luck with your investing RADV
Real share price action in RED this morning, trading at 18 cents and a small number on the Bid at 18.0 cents, after taking out a couple million shares at 17.5/18.0 cents. Total so far traded this morning 4 million plus, up 9%!
Is this the precursor to an announcement regarding funding arrangements, I wonder? I'm sure it will look good to technical chartists - any thoughts CEB2?
Is this the precursor to an announcement regarding funding arrangements, I wonder? I'm sure it will look good to technical chartists - any thoughts CEB2?
Hiya all.
I was just about to post. It looks like red is trading up once again with strong support at 17.5 (3m shares+). Wonder if this is a sign of great things to come, maybe we will test the 20c mark. Still waiting for the announcement on the financing progress.
I was just about to post. It looks like red is trading up once again with strong support at 17.5 (3m shares+). Wonder if this is a sign of great things to come, maybe we will test the 20c mark. Still waiting for the announcement on the financing progress.
Too late - I have already bought a handful (and I must say very happy so far today
). Although I have only just started purchasing shares, I have been researching/reading/watching for over a year now, so patient I can do. I don't mind one or two stocks being a bit more...shall we say 'exciting'?..than the rest of my portfolio I am not a trader, just a humble first-time share investor, so I doubt I will have much to contribute to the post, but I appreciate your welcome.
Great to hear that news Hurricane, I'm sure CEB2 will also give us a detailed chartists interpretation when he's got time - I wouldn't be surprised if he's glued to the screen watching this happening!
Wtang89, great to see your continuing posts now! As for the level of resistance we have to burst through at 19.5/20 cents etc, it will be interesting to see if it disappears IF an announcement occurs in the next day or so.
I continue to think about the reported Melb based insto that has indicated previously its interest in taking up a sizeable holding once funding is confirmed - it was indicated earlier they might take up to around 5 - 6% of RED shares if finance is available for the development, and that represents around 50 million shares or thereabouts. If its not from a placement itself it has to come from sellers. I can't see sellers being so free with their trades once 20 cents capitulates! I hope that insto remains interested in RED and the gold sector for investment...
Wtang89, great to see your continuing posts now! As for the level of resistance we have to burst through at 19.5/20 cents etc, it will be interesting to see if it disappears IF an announcement occurs in the next day or so.
I continue to think about the reported Melb based insto that has indicated previously its interest in taking up a sizeable holding once funding is confirmed - it was indicated earlier they might take up to around 5 - 6% of RED shares if finance is available for the development, and that represents around 50 million shares or thereabouts. If its not from a placement itself it has to come from sellers. I can't see sellers being so free with their trades once 20 cents capitulates! I hope that insto remains interested in RED and the gold sector for investment...
The only issue with this trading is that RED will most likely get a speeding ticket, based on both volume and share price increase. RED must either put out a Trading Halt now or put out an announcement otherwise they will get a please explain, and it would be so hard to defend no news if they are in the midst of finalising funding, that the market is anticipating!
Please RED, put out a Trading Halt now!!!
Please RED, put out a Trading Halt now!!!
Thanks for the warm welcome beatle, I am settling in to a new city now (HK) and so I have a bit more time to contribute. It seems like buyers are really heating up on RED as there larger buy orders at 18.5 and 19c, creating new resistance. This signals to me like someone knows that something (the pending announcement of the refinancing?)...(insider leaking information??). Speak of the devil beatle, we are at 19.5c and given that theres 300k at 19.5 and 1m at 20c (with an hour and a half left in the day), who knows what will happen ^^. Might have new high by the end of the day, ladies and gentleman!
I notice that while RED has just started to take out the relatively small offers at 19.5 cent, a wall at 20 cents is building, close to a million share on offer through 11 separate offers. I presume they are traders betting that the resistance will hold. If there is a speeding ticket by ASX then they will probably get their way momentarily with RED coming off the boil.
BUT if there is no speeding ticket, then just think who might be buying RED, and what would their focus be on - do you think its an odd cent trader? I don't at all. My view is its some bigger insto's taking a longer term view of the price for RED, probably closer to its fundamental values, in the 30's. Thus from a short term point of view selling out at 20 cents may reap a short term gain, I would much prefer to stay in the market with ALL my shares, and reap the longer term reward, of much more than a 20% or so revaluation, maybe closer to 100% on its recent trading price range.
Its good to see lots of trading in RED at 19.5 cents, its just a matter of time now ...
Thats just my view of course, and I am biased.
BUT if there is no speeding ticket, then just think who might be buying RED, and what would their focus be on - do you think its an odd cent trader? I don't at all. My view is its some bigger insto's taking a longer term view of the price for RED, probably closer to its fundamental values, in the 30's. Thus from a short term point of view selling out at 20 cents may reap a short term gain, I would much prefer to stay in the market with ALL my shares, and reap the longer term reward, of much more than a 20% or so revaluation, maybe closer to 100% on its recent trading price range.
Its good to see lots of trading in RED at 19.5 cents, its just a matter of time now ...
Thats just my view of course, and I am biased.
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Haha I was watching RED this morning when it was still around 17 cents, my eyes must've glazed over because I only noticed they shot up to 19 cents when you mentioned it Wtang! Hopefully this means that people are getting set for the finance announcement which should be out sometime this month or next, then some of Beatle's analysis can come true .
.ParleVouFrancais, if you go away for a couple more days it might test new levels, haha. (But to be honest I expect a Please Explain soon, that will slow it down til RED get honest with the funding and thats gonna be hard to explain once the exchange ask why its moved up and RED, as companies have to do, say there is nothing to report other than what was reported yesterday, then a day later put out a funding announcement!). Crazy arrangement, RED needs to put out a funding announcement before it gets called to report by ASX (my view anyway!).
As for CEB2, he is shy but I want to respond to a comment of his made elsewhere (I hate living in this aquarium, sorry CEB!) - "anyway ... just bouncng this thought around ... if RED was to go for cap raising ... would't it be great if they did it once the share price hit 24 cents or so?"
I suggest that the funding, IF its equity, will be at a level closer to around what RED was trading at the previous days (perhaps with a slight discount dare I say, or could they spring a surprise and offer it at a premium) - but surely it will be a placement to a group of insto's plus/minus sophisticated investors. As long as its not a long dated SPP or rights issue I am not fussed. But of course the preferred funding is always going to be reasonably priced debt (not that apparently mezzanine DB offer unless terms of the warrants are acceptable!). Here's hoping, but don't expect anything better than reasonably priced equity is my expectation.
As for CEB2, he is shy but I want to respond to a comment of his made elsewhere (I hate living in this aquarium, sorry CEB!) - "anyway ... just bouncng this thought around ... if RED was to go for cap raising ... would't it be great if they did it once the share price hit 24 cents or so?"
I suggest that the funding, IF its equity, will be at a level closer to around what RED was trading at the previous days (perhaps with a slight discount dare I say, or could they spring a surprise and offer it at a premium) - but surely it will be a placement to a group of insto's plus/minus sophisticated investors. As long as its not a long dated SPP or rights issue I am not fussed. But of course the preferred funding is always going to be reasonably priced debt (not that apparently mezzanine DB offer unless terms of the warrants are acceptable!). Here's hoping, but don't expect anything better than reasonably priced equity is my expectation.
Beatle if there was a ASX query regarding price and volume :chimney:chimneythey would most likerly refer to yesterdays announcements, so it's full steam ahead....this is the 4th time its touched .195 , so there must be some tea leave to be RED by the chartist, exciting times ahead.....regards ......fastbuck.