Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

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tech/a said:
You know it never ceases to amaze me how the human species has to attach a reason to why and how things happen.
This was known in June yet takes till late September to be flipped up as "The reason".

The only thing you have to know is how to read supply to be profitable.
Pretty simple when your a duck.

The Phillipines---yes I flew over it once.
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lol Hows the supply reading?
 
Boggo said:
Its back to where it was in July 2011 now, next bit of "upside" should get it up to Aug 2011 levels :horse:
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Your soo funny Boogo.
From a trading perspective I like RED having these ups and downs. Nothing worse than a company not moving in any direction and stagnant.
My personal thoughts on REDs future tho are positive. I dont know if you've ever been in business but i'm guessing not as you would realize that with any new production line there are problems to sort out before running smoothly.
Now if RED didn't have gold in the ground that would be a problem but thats not the case. In fact because of the POG atm RED can look at increasing it's mine life for a further 3yrs. Why? Because it produces gold very cheaply.

The market is very cynical and crucifies any negativity in company announcements. Thats how the majority traders like yourself survive. Risk management.:xyxthumbs
To have a capture of flogging a dead horse in regard RED proves this.:eek:(cruelty to animals) would'nt the RSPA like to know about that!

How about we have a look at REDs business in 6mths when hiccups are hopefully sorted out... hey Boogo?
 
jancha said:
lol Hows the supply reading?
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I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.

From a fundemantal perspective, I wouldn't buy this stock because it fails the management test. Over-promise and under-deliver. You can have the best fundamental story in the world, but if management cannot be trusted then results will always be worse than expected. It is fine for a company to have its problems, but sometimes management needs to take responsibility for these and give honest timelines for their resolution, rather than making big promises and continually saying that the stock is undervalued when it disappoints the market.
 
Ves said:
I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.

From a fundemantal perspective, I wouldn't buy this stock because it fails the management test. Over-promise and under-deliver. You can have the best fundamental story in the world, but if management cannot be trusted then results will always be worse than expected. It is fine for a company to have its problems, but sometimes management needs to take responsibility for these and give honest timelines for their resolution, rather than making big promises and continually saying that the stock is undervalued when it disappoints the market.
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What promises are you referring to?
 
jancha said:
What promises are you referring to?
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Weren't they supposed to be in full production in May 2012 for a start? (I am sure there were earlier dates than that too...) They're blaming the silt, I am no mining expert, but I certain that these problems can be foreseen and communicated to shareholders long before they occur. Looks like they're great at covering up the negatives, and good at over-promoting the positives! The market is valuing this like an exploration company, because they keep delaying production.
 
Was certainly looking good early on.
Sellers were swamped and stood by so price rose rapidly.
But as it came off sellers again swamped buyers and then pushed prices to near open.
So Supply still prevelant.
 
Ves said:
I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.
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You're a natural Ves!:xyxthumbs
 
Ves said:
Weren't they supposed to be in full production in May 2012 for a start? (I am sure there were earlier dates than that too...) They're blaming the silt, I am no mining expert, but I certain that these problems can be foreseen and communicated to shareholders long before they occur. Looks like they're great at covering up the negatives, and good at over-promoting the positives! The market is valuing this like an exploration company, because they keep delaying production.
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Time factor is always an issue with any company coming into production and of course they will think positively in things going forward. They have to think positive otherwise they wouldn't get anywhere.
I vaguely remember when RED had an exceptional wet season (5m?)where they had a major set back.
I dont think the silt issue was never unforeseen but more to the point under estimated in that the process was to just pump it out. As it turned out sump it out.... slower than anticipated.
Delays for sure but broken promises? I think that management have done the right thing in going about their business in general. No debt is a plus and the last CR @ $2.12(?)to sophisticated investors was good in the sense that management looked ahead and allowed for unforeseen circumstances.
I could be wrong but I dont see any negatives here other than management not keeping the market up to date. At least I hope i'm correct in this as i look at the picture with RED and only see potential.
Certainly sellers controlling RED atm with larger than normal volumes buying and selling.
Guess i'm just a mug punter as Boogo was saying but show me the negatives in RED ( besides what the charts are saying) and i'll be happy to leave this thread. Maybe there is a hidden factor in sellers controlling or like BLY for example an over sell.
 
jancha said:
I could be wrong but I dont see any negatives here other than management not keeping the market up to date.
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It is probably closer to what I should have said. A pretty big thing for me. However, you obviously disagree otherwise you would not be holding. That's what makes a market.
 
jancha said:
Time factor is always an issue with any company coming into production and of course they will think positively in things going forward. They have to think positive otherwise they wouldn't get anywhere.
I vaguely remember when RED had an exceptional wet season (5m?)where they had a major set back.
I dont think the silt issue was never unforeseen but more to the point under estimated in that the process was to just pump it out. As it turned out sump it out.... slower than anticipated.
Delays for sure but broken promises? I think that management have done the right thing in going about their business in general. No debt is a plus and the last CR @ $2.12(?)to sophisticated investors was good in the sense that management looked ahead and allowed for unforeseen circumstances.
I could be wrong but I dont see any negatives here other than management not keeping the market up to date. At least I hope i'm correct in this as i look at the picture with RED and only see potential.
Certainly sellers controlling RED atm with larger than normal volumes buying and selling.
Guess i'm just a mug punter as Boogo was saying but show me the negatives in RED ( besides what the charts are saying) and i'll be happy to leave this thread. Maybe there is a hidden factor in sellers controlling or like BLY for example an over sell.
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Bad communication is a strong signal that things are not right. When things are occurring as planned, announcements flow as management is proud of their work. As I see it, announcements by RED are usually late, when they come they are often disappointing to the market, and rarely have they recently met a target that they have set, even for a market update (from my recollection). So call it communication, but that is the whole fabric underlying their business, and if they cannot deliver on their intentions for whatever reasons, then that introduces risk to your money that may not be necessary for the possible gains.

Further, assuming that analysts that spend their professional lives investigating these opportunities have been out there to see operations, and seeing the price action following commencement of mining, you could quite easily conclude that the market has so far voted against their cash costs and production forecasts thus far.

I am sure that management is going as hard as they can in controlling and delivering, and I admire their commitment and struggle, but we are not here to support their work, we are here to make money. At this stage the scales don't balance in my mind.

It may be worth considering Beetle's history with RED, being that he was in it for 8? years and didn't see his expected target, but remained hopeful.
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Jancha, can you investigate any of the following goldies and tell me what you think;
BDR, PXG, YTC, ABU, AZH, LSA, RMS, SAR.
 
mr. jeff said:
Bad communication is a strong signal that things are not right. When things are occurring as planned, announcements flow as management is proud of their work. As I see it, announcements by RED are usually late, when they come they are often disappointing to the market, and rarely have they recently met a target that they have set, even for a market update (from my recollection). So call it communication, but that is the whole fabric underlying their business, and if they cannot deliver on their intentions for whatever reasons, then that introduces risk to your money that may not be necessary for the possible gains.

Further, assuming that analysts that spend their professional lives investigating these opportunities have been out there to see operations, and seeing the price action following commencement of mining, you could quite easily conclude that the market has so far voted against their cash costs and production forecasts thus far.

I am sure that management is going as hard as they can in controlling and delivering, and I admire their commitment and struggle, but we are not here to support their work, we are here to make money. At this stage the scales don't balance in my mind.

It may be worth considering Beetle's history with RED, being that he was in it for 8? years and didn't see his expected target, but remained hopeful.
--------------------------------------------------------
Jancha, can you investigate any of the following goldies and tell me what you think;
BDR, PXG, YTC, ABU, AZH, LSA, RMS, SAR.
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Understand what your saying here especially the part about making money.
Looking at the charts you would'nt touch RED but fundamentally there's a lot of positives.
However there'd be quite a few nervous investors including myself out there over the last few days with the selling down but i keep going back to the fundamentals of RED and if it's just the silt issue and the under production rate that's causing it? 8yrs to get to this point and 6mths into production... I'll keep trading in and out of them unless there's another underlying problem we dont know about as yet. In @ a low sp so happy to ride it out for now but i'm guessing it will bounce back. There'd be a lot more stocks to trade out there other than RED eg. NST ( usually better volume in trading) and i have also traded in and out of SAR. They're are the 3 goldies that i generally punt with.
 
Red is really showing support at the Low $1.20s creating excellent
short term trading opportunities for people like Jancha.
 
tech/a said:
Red is really showing support at the Low $1.20s creating excellent
short term trading opportunities for people like Jancha.
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Well if RED close above or on their opening of price $1.29 i'll be a bit more confident in thinking it will head back to where it was prior to the large sell down. imo
I could be wrong in saying this but RED generally is a low volume trading stock..If a large holder wishes to get out for one reason or another it can trigger a sell off....stop losses, market sentiment ect correct?
Yourself and boogo have criticized these so called ramps on RED by myself and others in the past but when you look at the fundamentals and all the positives i truely dont see it as a ramp. You can argue then at....why isn't it at a higher sp? Personally I to dont think that REDs sp will vary much until production is running smoothly and that could take up to another 6mths. So in the meantime where are investors going to place there money for best return...Not RED.

I'm thinking positive here that once the silt issue is resolved and RED is mining the better quality ore underneath and by that an increase in production RED should start to see a considerable increase in sp.imo
I dont see this as ramping only a potential result for RED. I could be wrong and (going by the charts I am) but until then i'll keep trading in and out of RED.
Boogo has stated me as being a mug punter (you probably think the same) and yourself called me a liar.
As i've said in the past i've traded RED over 100 times the last 3yrs.... and as you both pointed out it has'nt gone anywhere in all this time...
You call me a liar or a mug punter but i have'nt just held on to RED waiting for that blue sky but simply bought in and out taking profits and losses along the way. The company i'm trading has potential and is'nt going to go down the gurgler anytime soon.imo Thats why i'm comfortable in trading in and out of it.
 
Well RED never looked like testing the low $1.20s today. Positive signs that it's correcting on chartist point of view.
Even put it at a buy at this stage looking at it.

Hey Boogo whats your take on it..... still a dollar?
 
03-10-2012 8-32-49 AM.png


Great news, I hope they have their work in order, commence steady low cost production and start churning out some gold bars now.

18kOz in Dec quarter = 72kOz per annum

Will they revise their annual steady production target or keep ramping up ? It would be nice to see some proactive plans in the near future stating how management is going to bring the mine on line to meet their targets, forget any dates on it though that would just be insulting.

For now they may be able to ride a swing in sentiment and the current gold price.

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Awful chart and nothing to work with in my mind though.
Target 1.70 first up.

Target 2.17 if they get new operations staff or some other major internal change to restore some confidence/hope.
Take over offer at a 43% permium would be 2.20 and a dangerous move given history of the area and the mine. Could be possible but unlikely.


And a macro look with no further insights except to say erratic consolidation. If you left this stock in Dec 2010, well done. This is a 4 year weekly. The final comment "a major is coming back?" at this stage is not confidence inspiring, with the volume on the daily showing someone shuffling off a large slice recently. Nevertheless, if it moves above 1.60, it may have a look at $2 judging by its history.



03-10-2012 8-50-20 AM 4 year.png
 
RED looking fairly good. A nice bounce back from $1.20 now @ $1.70. Silt doesn't seem to be an issue now as reflected in the price.
Note: how Boogo only appears on this thread when RED drops. I guess he's the opposite of if you dont have anything positive to say dont say anything. Still waiting for that $1 forcast Boogo?
 
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