wonder what pikes take on red is now that beetles dissapeared.....
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
wonder what pikes take on red is now that beetles dissapeared.....
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
Nothing that wasn't unexpected, just breakout below the min area today.
Next step on the current trend is 1.16 on the way down unless something amazing occurs that would create a convincing close above 1.295 (which might get me interested).
Main target remains at just above $1.00.
(click to expand)
Next step on the current trend is 1.16 on the way down unless something amazing occurs that would create a convincing close above 1.295 (which might get me interested).
Main target remains at just above $1.00.
(click to expand)
Attachments
That from a chartist point of view but i think it's more to do with the POG thats going to dictate it's direction. Also a favourable report next week could have some upside temporarily providing gold hasn't dropped dramatically.
Boogo you mentioned NGF in one of your post... from a chartists point of view you said they were heading in the right direction. How far in the right direction is NGF looking on the charts as they have a takeover offer of 25c + .02c special dividend. With directors advising on taking the offer i dont see NGF sp at 24.5c going much further than what it is. What is your chart telling you if you say it's heading in the right direction. Just curious so if you could post it?
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
Boogo you mentioned NGF in one of your post... from a chartists point of view you said they were heading in the right direction. How far in the right direction is NGF looking on the charts as they have a takeover offer of 25c + .02c special dividend. With directors advising on taking the offer i dont see NGF sp at 24.5c going much further than what it is. What is your chart telling you if you say it's heading in the right direction. Just curious so if you could post it?
Not sure how far in the right direction it will go as there are potentially many external (potential = fundamental) influences but I am ignoring those and sticking with the internal (actual = technical) behaviour.
If it turns down I will get taken out at my current stop (now 24.5) which will be almost break even and will hopefully eliminate the possibility of me becoming an 'investor'.
Charts below.
Cheers Booogo.
(click to expand)
Attachments
Excuse my ignorance, but if there's a takeover at 25, plus a 2 c dividend, why put a stop in at 24.5?
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
Based on your positive looking figures it should'nt drop to 24.5, if it does why would I want to go into the red (RED - gettit
) while I have a number of other candidates waiting their turn.Have a look at my first chart in this post (in link below) and compare with the current daily chart and you will see how if you don't manage a failed trade you can become an investor seeking 'bargain at this price' levels on the way down way too easily.
(actually have a look at the posts that follow mine on that link too !)
In the current market herzy its either going up or its cash, just my
Link to post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=299&page=33&p=700916&viewfull=1#post700916
skc
Goldmember
- Joined
- 12 August 2008
- Posts
- 8,277
- Reactions
- 329
Boggo, there are perhaps time to look a little bit at the fundamentals. NGF with a 27c takeover offer due to conclude around Nov is being priced exactly as it should. You will see price rises in line with the approach to the completion date. There are no further upside to that, considering the bidder owns a large part of the company already.
Yet the down side if a deal falls through is probably 50% lower. If you are not in the game of merger arbitrage, I don't see why any directional traders would hold on this on a reward / risk basis.
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
I do agree that there is a lot in what you are saying skc and in the case of this stock it may be an example of just that.
Apart from knowing when a stock is within two months of paying a dividend I tend to just work on the price behaviour with a separate account set aside just for this type of speccy hit and run approach that NGF has turned up in.
One current example of this approach without looking outside of just the price action at fundamentals etc is CSE where I am long again for the third time since 17th April with a finger on constantly on the trigger (ie tight stops), I haven't got a clue what is driving it but its profitable fun so far !
Exactly why i asked to see the direction of Boggo's Chart analyst on NGF. Under the circumstances Tech analyst would'nt have any bearing as the fundamentals are cut and dry with the takeover at 25c + .02c dividend looking likely. It's not going to have a price target of say .30c when directors are saying take the deal. It's silly to say that NGF is heading in the right direction when it's quite obvious where it's going to go.
Unless there is another interested party bidding which i doubt as directors are advising to take the deal nothing will change..
I was surprised that boggo use NGF as an example to REDs volume & price situation. Cant see the point.
skc
Goldmember
- Joined
- 12 August 2008
- Posts
- 8,277
- Reactions
- 329
While I don't agree with those who trade only on price to the complete neglect of fundamentals, such is their choice and many are successful in doing so. But now that you are aware of what's happening with NGF are you still holding and trading it like you originally planned? (Mostly rhetorical and there's no need to answer - I've derailed the RED thread enough).
The forces driving CSE is simple and it's basically a less liquid version of SYR (as CSE holds a % of SYR so their share prices are basically moving the exact same way). Yet another reason why a glancing look at CSE's fundamental could make sure you are not in SYR at the same time - because if you did you would have doubled your risk without knowingly so.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
- Reactions
- 6,356
Now I swear---Somewhere on this thread Beatle bet me a house that RED would not fall below 12c ($1.20)
Beatle when I catch you Ill be looking for my house.
Beatle when I catch you Ill be looking for my house.
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
I suppose I could do what you kiddies do and average down on a falling stock, that should work
Here is an example, two posts from last week on the IAU thread, it is currently trading at 24 cents as I type this.
and
Back to the topic that this thread is about, ie RED.
So far today it got to within half a cent of its first target of 1.16, not seeing anything would get my interest in this stock yet and I definitely would not like to be holding it.
I suppose I could do what you kiddies do and average down on a falling stock, that should work
Here is an example, two posts from last week on the IAU thread, it is currently trading at 24 cents as I type this.
and
Back to the topic that this thread is about, ie RED.
So far today it got to within half a cent of its first target of 1.16, not seeing anything would get my interest in this stock yet and I definitely would not like to be holding it.
Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over
.Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over
Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?
Anyone could see where RED was heading too
(well almost anyone)
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
- Reactions
- 6,356
Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over
Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?
RED
IN the RED
Holders with RED faces
There is a good reason why we ( BOGGO and I ) take interest in threads like this.
We supply a balance.
Some have saved a great deal by applying some balance.
By the way BOGGO posts before he's correct.
So currently your $30 k profit is less than $ 15k .
Not the smartest investing I have ever seen.
Seriously you should be learning and not knocking.
Anyone could see where RED was heading too
Honestly you should try and grow up a bit with your little snipes your like a little terrior yapping and nipping at the heal.
Yes RED was down like most other oil and gold stocks today. So what.
By the way why bring up IAU on the RED thead? Are you trying to put RED in the same boat as IAU?
Beatles gone and noone's been ramping up RED. You and Boogo's constant little snipes aren't warranted and as far as keeping a balance goes...Maybe you can explain why your little mate has brought up IAU? If anything it seems you want the price to go down further.
Why bring up Beatle owing you a house or my profit? At least I have a profit on RED for now. You?
If you want to be helpful and keep the so called balance just posts your charts and refrain from your little snipes.
Whose been knocking your charts?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Agree,i don't see any reason to inflame the other posters here Tech. You have made your point.
CanOz
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,561
- Reactions
- 1,290
Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over
Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?
Obviously I have been posting on the RED thread longer than you have, it may be worthwhile for you to look at what was posted on the subject before your arrival.
I can understand that you are upset with your rapidly eroding 'profit', it is not my fault and I don't think comments such as that of yours is going to help you and is it really necessary ?
I am posting up charts based on a method that is working effectively on quite a few stocks, not just RED, if you don't agree or dislike my charts then hit the ignore button.
If you took the time to actually read what I am posting you would see that references to IAU etc are used as comparisons to situations that can be compared to RED, in this case the pitfalls of averaging down.
You have your opinion on RED based on whatever you choose and I have mine based on what I am prepared to put up here for all to see (before it happens).
This is about RED, not who is right or wrong, if you dont like the look of my charts/predictions etc because they don't agree with what you want to see then just put me on your ignore list.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,417
- Reactions
- 6,356
Well there's an important lesson to learn here.
You'll note my last trade netted a 4c loss $ 500 in that trade.
A few pointed out that taking such a loss was not wise.
At the time if we believe the " J " man his holdings showed quite a profit.
But he has stood by and watched it ave.
Infact he has stated that he will hold it until ALL profit is lost.
That's NOT investing it's gambling.
He --- quite wrongly sees his profits as money supplied by others.
Much like a pokie player with a profit.
My important point to all newbies is hat profit IS your money learn when to take it off the table.