Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

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mrlister said:
whole market is down. might as well put whole market in bottom drawer atm
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I wouldn't say the whole market is down or put them in the bottom draw for that matter.
Had RED come out with announcement in line with their production forcast i would doubt very much that they would be down. RED needs to practice what it preaches.... 1st of April was 11 days ago... where's the commercial production announcement??.
 
This from REDs Management...

Dear sir,

Thank you for your query regarding the announcement of commercial production.

The company will announce commercial production once we have achieved the stated target of 30 consecutive days of processing at a minimum of 60% capacity.
At the time of making the statement the company had expected this to occur by early April but until we do achieve the stated targets we cannot declare commercial production.
In the meantime the plant is producing gold and we have had shipments to the refiner.

Regards,


At least a response from RED
 
I got the same response from management last week. The 30 days was the technicality I was referring to. They also went on to say that in the event that anything happened and production halted and the 30 days got broken again, that they would bring forward the release of the quarterly (which is due end of april) to give some comfort to shareholders.
 
wonder what happened to Beatle??? his last post was on the 21/3 , no mention that he was going some place, hope all is well with the red legend.........
 
fastbuck1 said:
wonder what happened to Beatle??? his last post was on the 21/3 , no mention that he was going some place, hope all is well with the red legend.........
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Hope he's OK, thoughts with him and his family if there is some health issue or similar.

I would otherwise suggest that he is on site at Siana trying to sort things out. And communicate what is happening - he should have had a retainer from management for the past few years!
 
Agree about Beatle. He is a patriot of red to the point where I'm a little nervous as to why he isn't posting?

Back to RED, weird old day. Still no sign of news so a lot of small nervous sellers, but bots were just absorbing whatever people would sell. I was actually pretty happy with that as someone had definitely set the software to purchase quite a few today (relatively speaking, overall was a low volume day)
 
I gather that the CEO has been touring New York brokers with the chairman. Can't speak for the brokers but I would be more impressed if he was fixing the problems in the Philippines. I would really like to see the exploration budget set at no more than 10% of profit. A long life mine might suit the employees but profitable, dividend paying mines suit the owners.
 
thanks -useful to know fwpike.
mr lister i also wonder whether mr beatle headed to Siana to berate them?

tech/a - is there an inverted head and shoulders here? left shoulder Sept11, head Dec/JAn and right shoulder April.

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the refrain of the fundamentalist - "the gold is still there"
 
mgm1a said:
thanks -useful to know fwpike.
mr lister i also wonder whether mr beatle headed to Siana to berate them?

tech/a - is there an inverted head and shoulders here? left shoulder Sept11, head Dec/JAn and right shoulder April.

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the refrain of the fundamentalist - "the gold is still there"
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Tech/a will say-Inside day
Very low volume
No supply or demand.
I say sellers are holders untill Commercial production announcement and detales of gold produced over past two months.
 
mardo said:
Tech/a will say-Inside day
Very low volume
No supply or demand.
I say sellers are holders untill Commercial production announcement and detales of gold produced over past two months.
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Not exactly.
Today was a non event.
Like most days for RED.
 
tech/a said:
Not exactly.
Today was a non event.
Like most days for RED.
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Disagree. Today was a major shift from previous days. Today was the first day I have seen for a long time where there have been a lot of buyers that prevented the price dropping. Friday had a large buyer buying up a heap through a bot, of which resulted in a slight rise. Today was a low volume day, cos the buyers weren't pushing it up. But the numbers around market were a long way in favour of buyers.

In case you didn't notice, the Asx dropped .5%, gold dropped by more, yet RED rose 3.5%. Go figure!!
 
after thinking long and hard about this. i have a theory......which is based on facts put together

RED has always prided itelf on having no debt, as it is a big draw card for investors. They had the option of taking up a loan of sorts, which is already set up, but didnt take it and chose to capital raise instead. (Im guessing also cos it was set up through previous major shareholder).

During capital raising presentation, they declare that they will announce commercial production on 1st april. the capital raising is not as successful as hoped, and only raises 15m.

now we find ourselves in a position where they are producing and selling gold, but without announcing commercial production, as until commercial production is announced, they can still sell, but all proceeds are offset against capital costs of developing mine.

dot the dots together, and it is in their best interest not to declare commercial production just yet, while they can fill in the gap between what they hoped to raise and use to develop mine, without paying all the applicable taxes that come along with declaring commercial production.

This is a good scenario for holders, as it

a/ means that the 30 days of continuous production at 60% didn't stop cos of malfunction
b/ although commercial production hasnt been announced, they ARE still producing and selling, and this will become evident next week in the production report.

crazy to sell now, only way id sell is if negative news was released that would have a long term hold up on site. they may not have been too transparent in announcements, but fundamentals of production and company remain the same. its just the nervous nenny's sellin off now (and very few of them).
 
mr lister - couple of holes in your theory - they won't be paying taxes for years and TWP Aust. (EPCM contract) will have it contracted they have a deadline to meet - the milestone will ensure another progress payment for them. Besides they would commercially not want , for their own reputation and bidding on future work, to be seen to be dallying, least of all to suit client cashflow need.

i am seriously mentally tussling bailing into another actual producer, as a hedge, knowing that my downside is protected - downside being that this lingers - might miss some upside, but real risk downside - also knowing that investors won't price in full upside even when they make the declaration.
 
As stated from CFO of RED.

Please note that even though “Commercial Production” has not been declared, it does not mean that we have not been producing any Gold/Silver. In fact we have shipped and sold a number of shipments to the refiner but until “Commercial Production” has been declared any revenue earned is not classed as Sales but is offset against the capital costs of developing the mine.

I have a mate who is a CFO of a much larger Canadian gold miner. He said that you can set % for commercial production as you choose, and declare as you choose.

If they are as tax except as you say, what's the point of offsetting!!
 
Thanks for details.
it would reduce the capital cost shown on the balance sheet, but they were on target anyway. its a worry if this lingers as the cash would be ebbing, hence the last top-up cap raise.
 
Exactly. Sales now can go toward the gap in capital raising.

I don't see this as bad (if is true). All is on track, and gold is being produced. Would have been a hell of worse if the delay was due to that boggy ore!
 
Gold is being produced and sold, yet commercial production not being announced. I was saying it sounds like its good news that this is occurring, because it makes the reason behind the delay in announcement less likely to be caused by the old sticky ore problem raising its ugly head.

Reality is the actual reasons why are only known by management. So just shootin the breeze, fillin in time and readin between the lines, like our old pal Beatle always told us to do with these critters.....while we wait for them to get off their jatz cracker and tell us something!!
 
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