VAU - Vault Minerals

[beatle]

Hi Beatle I hope you haven't put me on your ignor list lol. Do you know who in Australia RED have a J/V with?

Hi Jancha, a couple of points:
1. I don't believe in ignore lists. Firstly I listen to anyone before I form my own view. Secondly I haven't had any problems with things you have said anyway, whether it was positive or negative to RED. As I have always believed, we all benefit by a variety of posters, even some of the REAL negative ones (it increases the reach of this thread for a start, and makes it more controversial!).
2. I'm struggling to understand the reason or relevance for the question. Maybe you can explain please? RED has a JV with Gateway Mining, and a royalty arrangement with the tantalum miner Galaxy Resources.

 

[beatle]

RED has put out a new Investor Presentation. It doesn't refer anywhere regarding the Capital Raising referred to in the Trading Halt.

It does refer to an additional outstanding $10.2 million required to complete the build, noting it had $10 million cash in the kitty.

It reconfirms the expectation that Siana will move into production phase at 1 April (shame they didn't say 2 April, lol). It also reconfirms the production guidance previously announced.

There is comment re the resources upgrade of 21% likely to delay underground production by up to 3 years, and refers to a 10 year life. Additionally it refers to the near-mine site resource potential indicated by recent drilling.

I assume this presentation has been provided to enable insto's to consider participation within the placement expected.

 

[mrlister]

I have issues with the 1st April date, when they said only a few weeks ago that march was a production month?!!! What else are they lying about? Is it really April, why not lie again in a month and change it to may??

I would consider buying RED again, but most likely only around the 1.6 mark!

 

[mr. jeff]

RED has put out a new Investor Presentation. It doesn't refer anywhere regarding the Capital Raising referred to in the Trading Halt.

It does refer to an additional outstanding $10.2 million required to complete the build, noting it had $10 million cash in the kitty.

It reconfirms the expectation that Siana will move into production phase at 1 April (shame they didn't say 2 April, lol). It also reconfirms the production guidance previously announced.

There is comment re the resources upgrade of 21% likely to delay underground production by up to 3 years, and refers to a 10 year life. Additionally it refers to the near-mine site resource potential indicated by recent drilling.

I assume this presentation has been provided to enable insto's to consider participation within the placement expected.

I haven't read it but that sounds like quite a positive release and must be a relief.
With a decent upgrade and some production figures, that could comfortably propel it over that hump and to better things. The way RED has been lurking in this range may suggest that a lot of sellers have now moved on to the next hope...so with renewed vigour it may get interesting again, but i have noticed that a lot of comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week - whether this is permanent or not is another question. Perhaps reliable cheap producers will remain attractive compared with explorers only.

Just give the management team a kick in the shareholder communication lobe of the brain though.

 

[jancha]

Hi Jancha, a couple of points:
1. I don't believe in ignore lists. Firstly I listen to anyone before I form my own view. Secondly I haven't had any problems with things you have said anyway, whether it was positive or negative to RED. As I have always believed, we all benefit by a variety of posters, even some of the REAL negative ones (it increases the reach of this thread for a start, and makes it more controversial!).
2. I'm struggling to understand the reason or relevance for the question. Maybe you can explain please? RED has a JV with Gateway Mining, and a royalty arrangement with the tantalum miner Galaxy Resources.

Settle petal dont take things so seriously. Thats why a had a lol after it and besides that i haven't had anything negative to say about RED only positives.
Relevance? Just interested in who they had a J/V in Australia as i red it somewhere but thought you'd know off hand. Cheers buddy

 

[Wa11y]

I have issues with the 1st April date, when they said only a few weeks ago that march was a production month?!!! What else are they lying about? Is it really April, why not lie again in a month and change it to may??

I would consider buying RED again, but most likely only around the 1.6 mark!

I do too, but from what I understand they're in production in March, just at a significantly lower rate than say, in 4 months, as they're still commissioning. April 1 represents full production - no further commissioning. Correct me if I'm wrong?

 

[Wa11y]

I do too, but from what I understand they're in production in March, just at a significantly lower rate than say, in 4 months, as they're still commissioning. April 1 represents full production - no further commissioning. Correct me if I'm wrong?

Further to this, they still say "4 months to June" - meaning inclusive of March?

 

[mrlister]

But I didn't think full production was to commence until June, so everything until then should have been part production......so it still makes no sense. Is trading going to commence tomorrow or is it still Monday. I'm very keen to see where it goes

 

[Wa11y]

But I didn't think full production was to commence until June, so everything until then should have been part production......so it still makes no sense. Is trading going to commence tomorrow or is it still Monday. I'm very keen to see where it goes

Nah it definitely isn't full production until June - my understanding it was a lower rate up until then, and a higher cost of production too. But even so, NPV at the reduced rate places RED SP significantly higher than $2.30

 

[mgm1a]

something not adding up -
qtrly 31/12 ="process plant build complete" meaning the costs should have been accrued in the half year accounts.
Also mentioned final cost US$87 and "further $10m build costs to be presented in the MArch 2012 qtr"

ann 28/2 = final cost US$87M

qtrly cashflow 31/12 - the forecast on page 3 shows the estimated cashflow for the MArch qtr - OK there's the $10m showing as $9.3 m but the other admin/prod costs showing $2.9m but today's preso says we have dropped by $10.7 (20.7 -10 as per preso) ALREADY, with 2 weeks to go.

Surely the variations on the extra workarounds/mechanical handling wouldn't be $7m ish?

What has blown out?? Its not the stated capex.....and the Company Insight 28/2 didn't divulge although perhaps by omission when GE didn't fully respond to the very final question; "What is your current funding position and major expected expenditure"

The delays has accelerated beyond what I thought would affect final cash position given that they were to be cashing in on production- sure they had glitch but now we have no money left for Mapawa exploration, too?

The shortfall can be covered by the Sprott credit card

Starting to falter in my faith in management..........

Slide 10 of the preso shows the $25m capex required for 2013 - for underground work which is obviously being brought forward from 2014 which also explains the need for the raising sometime this year

 

[mrlister]

.....

 

[Boggo]

but i have noticed that a lot of comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week - .

I would be interested in which stocks you consider comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week .

Just trying to get a picture of what you guys are using as a comparison.

Regarding all the posts where tech/a calls a spade a tool for digging holes and you newbies get yourselves all defensive, I would suggest that you kiddies take notice of the clues and you will rapidly reduce the the risk of being dependant on Gus and his poggy stuff to save you regardless of which stock you might be involved in.

He is very economical with words but will go out of his way to help anyone.

There is a new book out as of last week that has a chapter dedicated to tech/a and what he achieved over a few years with a relatively small start up account, worth having a read of, it may be in your interests to chip in and get Gus a copy too.

You are shooting the messenger guys, listen and learn, not liking the message is not a reason to go on the attack. Another few years of constantly getting tied up in one stock and only listening to what you want to hear from those who have a vested interest will eventually result in you arriving at the realisation that you are going round in circles and getting nowhere and are dependant or others.

This RED bulldust could go either way and there are some that could end up in more trouble than the first settlers, believe me, this is not how you make money in this or any market.

Most of us techies are armed and ready if RED gives the signal but to us it is just another stock and a way to make money with our own abilities rather than being at the mercy of the Gus's of this world, been there, done that 15 years ago.

Just my that will probably attract the usual nonsense rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about what is being said rather than getting defensive when people are stating the obvious that is perceived as an attack on you personally.

 

[mrlister]

Boggo, I'm one those newbies, and I have responded once regarding his social skills, and probably unfairly too now that I've seen much more if the banter.

When it comes to trading im 100% in agreeance with his methods, and every technical post is a lesson.

But lets not kid ourselves, he certainly is a much better trader than a comedian!!

 

[Boggo]

When it comes to trading im 100% in agreeance with his methods, and every technical post is a lesson.

But lets not kid ourselves, he certainly is a much better trader than a comedian!!

Yes, probably got to agree on both points

From a fundamental perspective and only out of personal interest, what is a summary the general consensus of all the items/opinions that are in endless supply regarding RED. There seems to be too much info but yet not enough, is this the case ?

 

[mrlister]

i really have no clue I just got a bit lucky with RED. But the love affair appears to be coming to a close

 

[beatle]

Hi All, well its been an interesting day all round for RED and posters on the RED thread! Mind you its not that great to face a Trading Halt that has come out of the blue with a capital raising, and seems that the rumour is that its a raising of $25 million priced at $2.12, if its bedded down. And related to Siana only, both as a prudent addition to working capital plus some ooomph to get exploration kick started ahead of what it could have possibly have been if from internal funds!

Mgm1a, from what I can understand whilst yes the capex for the plant and first round capitalised mining was close to budget, RED continues to add substantial capitalised mining from the pit, and this has resulted in an increased cost of that waste removal. It will result in an aggressive mining of the pit waste ahead of schedule and thus will substantially benefit mine scheduling from the substantially increased pit ore faces being opened up.

Additionally the cash on hand at Dec 31 was misleading as it didn't have to cover some invoices that were yet to be presented as part of the overall cost at that time, and have now been provided for. I guess its an accounting issue which clearly you have a better idea of if given all the information.

MrLister, Watty has covered it pretty well, that whilst the commissioning period is a phase of production, its a period when there is a gradual increase in production as the plant circuitry is working on increasing production, and operating criteria is established and optimised. And from a mining perspective, there is a gradual pick up in the mining of waste and ore to build up stockpiles for processing. And remembering that Siana is now coming out of a wet season that has in the past season been a difficult time for building of the plant and will likely have a problem for initial mining wet there are very wet conditions. That period should now be largely behind Siana until next season, about Dec/Jan end of this year and early next year.

Boggo, interesting that you passed on your brothers comments for all us to read, did you pass on my invitation as well, lol?

I believe its most likely that the TH will continue until first thing monday morning, the CR will likely include some big hitters from overseas and those discussions will be happening tonight presumably.

 

[beatle]

Settle petal dont take things so seriously. Thats why a had a lol after it and besides that i haven't had anything negative to say about RED only positives.
Relevance? Just interested in who they had a J/V in Australia as i red it somewhere but thought you'd know off hand. Cheers buddy

Oh I forgot to reply to Jancha, and sorry if my reply sounded a bit harsh, in fact I didn't mean to do that. As I mentioned, I didn't have an issue with your posts at all, and actually I wasn't referring to you at all when I was referring to very negative posts. (And of course even if I had an issue with your or anyone's posts it isn't relevant, I don't own this thread anyway).

At the end of the day we are all trying to spread our views for whatever purpose we might be motivated for regarding RED. And up front, even though it might not sound like it to all the observers, I am not just interested in putting RED up there in lights although yes I have a stack of shares in it, so I tend to be more positive than negative with my view - but then thats why i have a stack of shares in it still!

For me its also about trying to provide a means to get across information about the company and its activities that I might have a view of or knowledge of due to my long following of the company, and since I don't work nowadays I have time on my hands to do it. Some of that, especially things more involved with PR of the company, is something that should be done by the company, but its not being done so well IMO, and I prefer to be a facilitator if I can help.

Of course that fact that I have no tie up also means that I might be able to say things that company management can find difficult to say without being on shaky grounds as a director/manager of the company. (You can take that last point any way that you might like of course).

 

[mgm1a]

whilst yes the capex for the plant and first round capitalised mining was close to budget, RED continues to add substantial capitalised mining from the pit, and this has resulted in an increased cost of that waste removal. It will result in an aggressive mining of the pit waste ahead of schedule .

beatle - they repeatedly said capex $US87 - so they can't be a case of adding "substantial capitalised mining" - that would be operating costs, so would "mining the pit"

The slide I mentioned with 2013 capex seems to be what they want to start fairly soon and have cash on hand to do so, rather than wait for gold production to convert to cash....there may be contracts & equipment requiring substantial up front payments to initiate.

 

[mr. jeff]

sorry not time now but these are a couple boggo. Definitely large volumes going through. No other wasted words from me though I have nothing to argue about.

 

[Wa11y]

I would be interested in which stocks you consider comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week .

Just trying to get a picture of what you guys are using as a comparison.

Regarding all the posts where tech/a calls a spade a tool for digging holes and you newbies get yourselves all defensive, I would suggest that you kiddies take notice of the clues and you will rapidly reduce the the risk of being dependant on Gus and his poggy stuff to save you regardless of which stock you might be involved in.

He is very economical with words but will go out of his way to help anyone.

There is a new book out as of last week that has a chapter dedicated to tech/a and what he achieved over a few years with a relatively small start up account, worth having a read of, it may be in your interests to chip in and get Gus a copy too.

You are shooting the messenger guys, listen and learn, not liking the message is not a reason to go on the attack. Another few years of constantly getting tied up in one stock and only listening to what you want to hear from those who have a vested interest will eventually result in you arriving at the realisation that you are going round in circles and getting nowhere and are dependant or others.

This RED bulldust could go either way and there are some that could end up in more trouble than the first settlers, believe me, this is not how you make money in this or any market.

Most of us techies are armed and ready if RED gives the signal but to us it is just another stock and a way to make money with our own abilities rather than being at the mercy of the Gus's of this world, been there, done that 15 years ago.

Just my that will probably attract the usual nonsense rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about what is being said rather than getting defensive when people are stating the obvious that is perceived as an attack on you personally.

I wouldn't have thought I was getting defensive, I appreciate the posts about TA, just not the ones about fundamentals where it's been acknowledged there's no interest (ignorant comments about mine operations, first gold pour etc) - that's where my frustration was.