Kauri
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Looking at the monthly charts, the market is currently sitting on support from the year...1991! When talking about these massive time frames it's probably good to look to the fundamental. Ie what has been driving is down since 2002, and is this pressure still present?
Back in 91 the market changed direction for the next 10 years without wavering. However this looks different. The sudden drops every year or so have been very strong.
There is little doubt in my mind that it's going down.
Looking at the monthly charts, the market is currently sitting on support from the year...1991! When talking about these massive time frames it's probably good to look to the fundamental. Ie what has been driving is down since 2002, and is this pressure still present?
Back in 91 the market changed direction for the next 10 years without wavering. However this looks different. The sudden drops every year or so have been very strong.
There is little doubt in my mind that it's going down.
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Re: USDCAD Looney
I was thinking short medium term, not overnight. Your right, long term it looks like it's turning, but there's some still some downside, methinks. Make sure you trade the timeframe you seek to profit from.
I was thinking short medium term, not overnight. Your right, long term it looks like it's turning, but there's some still some downside, methinks. Make sure you trade the timeframe you seek to profit from.
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Surely the timeframe I trade in is the the timeframe I try to profit from?
The weekly chart gives me an overall larger picture of where I am at in the daily. Longterm (weekly), unless the 5th wave is shortened, I see that there is still a ways to go down. Possibly by being a little more agressive in my trading style, that doesn't exclude me from long trades on possible corrections to that longer trend when everything lines up, regardless of my overall short bias.
Surely the timeframe I trade in is the the timeframe I try to profit from?
The weekly chart gives me an overall larger picture of where I am at in the daily. Longterm (weekly), unless the 5th wave is shortened, I see that there is still a ways to go down. Possibly by being a little more agressive in my trading style, that doesn't exclude me from long trades on possible corrections to that longer trend when everything lines up, regardless of my overall short bias.
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Re: USDCAD Looney
What I was getting at was the fact that some people who have a long term view then expect the market to behave that way in the short term and trade accordingly. Eg it's easy to take a big hit on the 30min trend while on the monthly trend the market will move just as you predicted.
What I was getting at was the fact that some people who have a long term view then expect the market to behave that way in the short term and trade accordingly. Eg it's easy to take a big hit on the 30min trend while on the monthly trend the market will move just as you predicted.
Kauri
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Telstra.. You are quite right, as my wife would/will say.. What were you thinking of..
.. Long term I still think the Loonie has away to go down yet, and still I cut a good trade to try to grab a couple of RR points on a minor countertrend which may not even eventuate Going through my records, particularly FX, I have been doing it quite a bit lately, is impacting negatively on my drawdown and overall RR multiples, so it is something I will have to eliminate from my trading. Amazing how a couple of early minor short-term successes trading this way has allowed it to become part of my trading style!!! Genuine thanks for the timely reminder.
Now it's time to see if the downtrend resumes and if there is a valid entry point so I can rejoin the trade.
Cheers
Kauri
Telstra.. You are quite right, as my wife would/will say.. What were you thinking of..
.. Long term I still think the Loonie has away to go down yet, and still I cut a good trade to try to grab a couple of RR points on a minor countertrend which may not even eventuate Going through my records, particularly FX, I have been doing it quite a bit lately, is impacting negatively on my drawdown and overall RR multiples, so it is something I will have to eliminate from my trading. Amazing how a couple of early minor short-term successes trading this way has allowed it to become part of my trading style!!! Genuine thanks for the timely reminder. Now it's time to see if the downtrend resumes and if there is a valid entry point so I can rejoin the trade.
Cheers
Kauri
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Kauri/Telstra
Been playing around with FX of late and last night this pair bounced off the 1.11 support line nicely, about 100 pips on the board last night. I think there is still pips available on the upside from here, but you would need t acknowledge that this is a counter trend trade and it would prudent to take quick pips here...
I take Telstra's point about be conscious of trading to the time frame you want and reviewing the trend accordingly. The more I learn about FX, more I notice that trading on different time frames (15, 30 mins or longer term i.e daily to hourly) can cause you to take different positions in the market. For the meanwhile however, I am focusing on taking small pip profits and therefore was happy with the USD/CAD long accordingly.
Cheers
Reece
Kauri/Telstra
Been playing around with FX of late and last night this pair bounced off the 1.11 support line nicely, about 100 pips on the board last night. I think there is still pips available on the upside from here, but you would need t acknowledge that this is a counter trend trade and it would prudent to take quick pips here...
I take Telstra's point about be conscious of trading to the time frame you want and reviewing the trend accordingly. The more I learn about FX, more I notice that trading on different time frames (15, 30 mins or longer term i.e daily to hourly) can cause you to take different positions in the market. For the meanwhile however, I am focusing on taking small pip profits and therefore was happy with the USD/CAD long accordingly.
Cheers
Reece
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Re: USDCAD Looney
To tell you the truth, I was kind of suckered into giving my opinion on which way this will go, I almost never give opinions anymore, even to myself. The longer I trade the less I think about "which way the market is going to go" and the more I think about just managing my money. Stops, letting winners run, scaling my positions according to these factors.
I'd like to think I could make a long term profit by throwing darts at charts, flipping a coin for long or short and then just managing whatever positions I happen to be in. I can't control or predict the markets, but I can control the above.
To tell you the truth, I was kind of suckered into giving my opinion on which way this will go, I almost never give opinions anymore, even to myself. The longer I trade the less I think about "which way the market is going to go" and the more I think about just managing my money. Stops, letting winners run, scaling my positions according to these factors.
I'd like to think I could make a long term profit by throwing darts at charts, flipping a coin for long or short and then just managing whatever positions I happen to be in. I can't control or predict the markets, but I can control the above.
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Re: USDCAD Looney
...never-the-less it looks like I was on the money
...never-the-less it looks like I was on the money
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Having successfully taken myself out of a winning trade by breaking all my trading rules by trying firstly to pick a bottom and secondly unsuccessfully trade a countertrend I have watched with wry amusement as the Loonie has continued relentlessly south, without me.... now it looks like it is in the typical area price and timewise for W5 to complete if of course my labelling is correct??).... guess who isn't trying a countertrend trade this time!! Will watch and see if it rises first instead of sagging like an undercooked soufle.....
Having successfully taken myself out of a winning trade by breaking all my trading rules by trying firstly to pick a bottom and secondly unsuccessfully trade a countertrend I have watched with wry amusement
as the Loonie has continued relentlessly south, without me.... now it looks like it is in the typical area price and timewise for W5 to complete if of course my labelling is correct??).... guess who isn't trying a countertrend trade this time!! Will watch and see if it rises first instead of sagging like an undercooked soufle.....Attachments
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Kauri
What a decline - incredible how far south it has gone......
The head of fxbootcamp.com (I think it's Wayne someone) said in the latest free teleconference that his view is that unless the US finds a huge oil reserve in the foreseeable future, this thing will just keep going south......
I guess for you it just proves that keeping to the plan is the most important thing and that regardless of what your biases are, sometime the EW count and review of the chart is the most important thing.
Still, if you managed to get a few pips here and learned something out it, then I think you won big time here.......
Cheers
Kauri
What a decline - incredible how far south it has gone......
The head of fxbootcamp.com (I think it's Wayne someone) said in the latest free teleconference that his view is that unless the US finds a huge oil reserve in the foreseeable future, this thing will just keep going south......
I guess for you it just proves that keeping to the plan is the most important thing and that regardless of what your biases are, sometime the EW count and review of the chart is the most important thing.
Still, if you managed to get a few pips here and learned something out it, then I think you won big time here.......
Cheers
Kauri
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Reece,
The re-inforcement of my trade rules is the most valuable.... incidentally, allowing that my count on the weekly is correct, parity is by no means out of the equation.... ahhhh .. the wry amusement just keeps getting better and better..
Reece,
The re-inforcement of my trade rules is the most valuable.... incidentally, allowing that my count on the weekly is correct, parity is by no means out of the equation.... ahhhh .. the wry amusement just keeps getting better and better..
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Looney has been great, but CADJPY even better with the carry.
Looney has been great, but CADJPY even better with the carry.
Kauri
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Re: USDCAD Looney
Well the first entry at 50-60% ret bombed, the next at the 78% has come in well so far...
Cheers
...Kauri
Well the first entry at 50-60% ret bombed, the next at the 78% has come in well so far...
Cheers
...Kauri
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