US mortgage carnage

[Kauri]

Too True.

For others, talk about trying to catching falling knives...or pianos..

Not a healthy looking chart for a company supposedly underpinning the system is it?

only the last two days are of interest to me... luckily..
and Soc Gen bank... which I have mentioned for the past few days..
and a german bank surrounded by liquidity problems rumours...
and... ahhhh..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[numbercruncher]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.

The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/real_estate/merrill_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2008012313


Thats alot of dropping ! Gives you an indication of how overpriced Oz/Kiwi RE is , US RE averages out at like 3 to 4x earnings, here over 7 !

 

[Fool]

this looks like an interesting comparison from previous crashes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBM8Q_w0wg

 

[wayneL]

this looks like an interesting comparison from previous crashes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBM8Q_w0wg

Had a look at his other videos.... interesting guy. I like him.

I like anyone who cans Cramer, Krudlow et al.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Thats alot of dropping ! Gives you an indication of how overpriced Oz/Kiwi RE is , US RE averages out at like 3 to 4x earnings, here over 7 ![/QUOTE]

I think there are big differences between the US and oz economies. Ours is resource based and geared toward export to China where as the US is more Service and Military based.

We will be producing a budget surplus of 1.5% GDP our wages are increasing fast and the demand vs supply for houses is very tight. I think we will have good prosperity as our fate is tied to tthe industrialisation of China and India. When Japan was industrialising the US was booming because they were tied to their growth but the industrialisation of Japans pales in comparison to China and India.

Plus the other great advantage we have is 22 Million people in a country with more resources than other countries with 10 times the population.

I'm 25 and thinking the future looks pretty good

 

[wayneL]

Folks, keep an eye out for this name in the news - Paragon Mortgages.

It may become Paragone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/11/bcnpara111.xml

Fighting them on the beaches....

Paragon shares crash on funding plan

By Emma Thelwell
Last Updated: 1:05am GMT 12/01/2008

Specialist buy-to-let mortgage lender Paragon plans to tap shareholders for £287m, a move which sent its shares plunging more than 40pc in morning trading.

Paragon sign
Paragon has been a victim of the credit crunch
# Get the latest news on the financial services sector

Britain’s third largest buy-to-let lender warned in November that it may have to sell shares to raise capital as the credit crisis shuts off much of its usual source of funding.

Paragon plans to offer investors 25 new shares for each existing one they own, representing a 90pc discount to the closing price yesterday.

This morning the shares crashed as much as 52pc and were trading down more than 40pc at 59p by noon.
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Investment bank UBS has agreed to underwrite the issue.

Paragon’s chairman Robert Dench said “The rights issue announced today provides Paragon with financial stability and secures the value inherent in the group today for its shareholders.”

Mr Dench said it would allow Paragon to “pursue further funding, so the company can return to writing significant volumes of profitable business when credit markets reopen.”

In November, Paragon’s shares crashed after it axed its dividend and unveiled plans for an emergency rights issue.

 

[Kauri]

Hi wayne..
any word on Alliance & Leicester over there..??
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Hi wayne..
any word on Alliance & Leicester over there..??
Cheers
..........Kauri

Not looking healthy, but no code blue thus far.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article3269448.ece

 

[Kauri]

Not looking healthy, but no code blue thus far.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article3269448.ece

The bank said that chief executive David Bennett had taken temporary leave of absence with an abdominal illness

Apparently there is alot of it doing the rounds at the moment. :flush:
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/11/bcnpara111.xml

Fighting them on the beaches....

..we shall fight them on the landing grounds..

the slump in stocks and pullback in bond yields from the morning highs are being linked to rumors of a US banks $4 bln loss on European derivatives. It hit European bonds but appears to have been shrugged off by the market. Probably more spin by the punters to work thier positions..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

..we shall fight them on the landing grounds..

the slump in stocks and pullback in bond yields from the morning highs are being linked to rumors of a US banks $4 bln loss on European derivatives. It hit European bonds but appears to have been shrugged off by the market. Probably more spin by the punters to work thier positions..
Cheers
..........Kauri

.... we shall fight them in the fields and the streets...

X.X.Xxxxan has declined comment on rumours of derivatives losses. The stock market is shaking off the concerns which drove the DJIA lower this morning
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Punters are hearing that a Washington Think Tank (now there' an oxymoron) is now saying that the Fed will not cut rates.
Cheers
..........Kauri

P.S.. must be a few desparate shorts out there..

 

[moneymajix]

BBC NEWS

FBI investigates sub-prime crisis

The FBI is investigating 14 companies embroiled in the sub-prime mortgage crisis as part of a crackdown on improper lending.

It did not identify the companies but said the investigation encompassed developers, sub-prime lenders and investment banks.

FBI officials said the agency was looking at instances of accounting fraud and insider trading.

The cases could lead to potential civil or criminal charges, the FBI said.

The FBI said it viewed mortgage fraud as an increasing threat to the national economy.

It said that there had been 1,200 cases of mortgage fraud for the 2007 financial year compared with just 400 in 2006.

The crisis in the sub-prime lending market has hit financial markets worldwide.

Joint investigation

The FBI said it was investigating the cases with the US market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC has opened about three dozen investigations into the collapse of the sub-prime market.

Targets of the SEC probe include Swiss bank UBS and US banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, Reuters news agency reported.

It was not clear whether any of these firms were involved in the FBI investigation.

The sub-prime market is focused on providing home loans to those with poor or limited credit histories.

Many of these borrowers have been unable to keep up with payments and face losing their homes.

The wider crisis emerged as many of these mortgages were converted into financial instruments and sold on to investors including the big investment banks.

Defaults on these loans caused a steep drop in the value of related investments and has led to more than $100bn of losses at banks worldwide.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7216602.stm


Published: 2008/01/29 22:33:52 GMT

© BBC MMVIII

 

[numbercruncher]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of foreclosures soared in 2007, with 405,000 households losing their home, according to a report released Tuesday. That's up 51 percent from the 268,532 homes that were repossessed in 2006.

Total foreclosure filings soared 97% in December alone compared with December of 2006, according to RealtyTrac, an online seller of foreclosure properties. For the year, total filings - which include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions - grew 75%.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/29/real_estate/foreclosure_filings_2007/index.htm


And the majority of that digit came in the latter part of the year! next quarter is sure to be Juicy!

 

[Kauri]

Just read about a CNBC report by a "T.V analyst" that came out late in the US session saying CNBC have learned that Wall Street bond rating agencies are poised to downgrade both Ambac Financial Group and MBIA even though NY state regulators would like to get a hold until they can fully develop a bailout package. According to the CNBC report, barring some last minute agreement on a bailout package, the downgrades could come as early as Wednesday US time.
Other analysts analysing the analysts analysis say that the CNBC talking head covering the story has been very busy pushing his barrow very hard being extremely negative towards the prospect of a bail-out saving the bond insurers from down-grades and say that their analysis indicates it is unlikely that a down-grade will occur while the NY state regulator is still trying to negotiate a package.
Meanwhile, Ambac shares blithely rose over 25% yesterday, ...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[IFocus]

Just read about a CNBC report by a "T.V analyst" that came out late in the US session saying CNBC have learned that Wall Street bond rating agencies are poised to downgrade both Ambac Financial Group and MBIA even though NY state regulators would like to get a hold until they can fully develop a bailout package. According to the CNBC report, barring some last minute agreement on a bailout package, the downgrades could come as early as Wednesday US time.
Other analysts analysing the analysts analysis say that the CNBC talking head covering the story has been very busy pushing his barrow very hard being extremely negative towards the prospect of a bail-out saving the bond insurers from down-grades and say that their analysis indicates it is unlikely that a down-grade will occur while the NY state regulator is still trying to negotiate a package.
Meanwhile, Ambac shares blithely rose over 25% yesterday, ...
Cheers
.........Kauri

So Kauri how did you end up with your analysts analyzing the other analysts who were analyzing the analysis... did I get them all.

Sorry couldn't help it

 

[ithatheekret]

Hey Kauri , remember that 73.080/19 stuff up , I'm short again .


If you want news from CNBC listen to the Asian Bureau head , hers is on in the right direction . I think she get's a bit of flak for her cut the b#ll stance .

 

[Kauri]

So Kauri how did you end up with your analysts analyzing the other analysts who were analyzing the analysis... did I get them all.

Sorry couldn't help it

Got it sorted now..sending it off down the pipes to Gordon Rd.. :flush:

The UK Financial Services Agency has warned that more than a million Britons will struggle to repay their mortgages if an economic slowdown causes banks to toughen their lending criteria (Times).
CXheers
...........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Time for some innovative ideas ...........

 

[Kauri]

Time for some innovative ideas ...........

here's one..

King Reappointed as BoE Governor for 5 More Years Reuters