US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought I’d start a thread on the US Election in the Economic forum as there are a number on the go in General chat of a political nature. I thought of it after watching Trump run rings around one of the heads of Bloomberg on their Morning Europe segment. Should he be successful as I believe he will be his policies will have repercussions worldwide. Some that come to mind are.

• Tariffs
• US Dollar
• Oil price
• Gold price
• Materials
• Defence
• US stocks reaction
• ASX stocks reaction

I believe should Harris win, which is possible there will be other issues to concern us as traders and investors. She has managed to become a candidate through Biden’s dementia and it is possible that through illness or death she will sneak in to the presidency. Concerns for us on ASF could be.

• US Recession
• Increased Middle East turmoil
• European instability
• Russia
• Oil price
• Gold price
• US and ASX stocks reaction
• Australian recession
• Further worldwide migration/immigration

I’d be interested in other members thoughts on this event which is just a few weeks away. It is a known event with just two possible outcomes or maybe three if Harris wins and Trump decides she didn’t. But let’s not go there for the moment.

gg

 

[wayneL]

I’d be interested in other members thoughts on this event which is just a few weeks away. It is a known event with just two possible outcomes or maybe three if Harris wins and Trump decides she didn’t. But let’s not go there for the moment.

gg

Just to add in to the scenarios there are actually four. Because if Trump wins there is every likelihood that the democrats don't accept the result.

I think there's going to be political trouble/violence no matter who wins.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'll buyit. from a recent newsletter, that might have come across the Gumnut Family Office desk, recently?

"... According to the Election Betting Odds tracker which consolidates the odds from 5 major bookmakers, Trump now has a 53% chance of winning, and Harris has a 46.4% chance. As recently as 5 October Harris was the favourite.

What are the investment implications of a Trump win?

If the 2016 investment playbook is any guide, U.S smaller companies should perform well…lower taxes, less regulation and improved business sentiment etc.

The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies ... which looks like it wants to head higher, and we could see it exceeding its 2021 high. Investors, as we all know, are generally underweight smaller companies and I envisage many will look to increase their exposures in the months ahead.

Some months back, and when Biden was still in the race, we examined the impact of a likely Trump victory and stated that smaller companies would be a beneficiary.

We also saw a steepening of the U.S yield curve, as Trump’s economic policies are clearly inflationary, coupled with ever rising budget deficits and debt.

Neither Trump nor Harris have demonstrated any fiscal discipline, but Trump’s fiscal policies are arguably more stimulatory and inflationary.

In addition, we have the prospect of Trump’s much-loved tariffs... ..."