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US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment

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Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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2 January 2006
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I thought I’d start a thread on the US Election in the Economic forum as there are a number on the go in General chat of a political nature. I thought of it after watching Trump run rings around one of the heads of Bloomberg on their Morning Europe segment. Should he be successful as I believe he will be his policies will have repercussions worldwide. Some that come to mind are.

  • Tariffs
  • US Dollar
  • Oil price
  • Gold price
  • Materials
  • Defence
  • US stocks reaction
  • ASX stocks reaction
I believe should Harris win, which is possible there will be other issues to concern us as traders and investors. She has managed to become a candidate through Biden’s dementia and it is possible that through illness or death she will sneak in to the presidency. Concerns for us on ASF could be.

  • US Recession
  • Increased Middle East turmoil
  • European instability
  • Russia
  • Oil price
  • Gold price
  • US and ASX stocks reaction
  • Australian recession
  • Further worldwide migration/immigration

I’d be interested in other members thoughts on this event which is just a few weeks away. It is a known event with just two possible outcomes or maybe three if Harris wins and Trump decides she didn’t. But let’s not go there for the moment.

gg
 
Just to add in to the scenarios there are actually four. Because if Trump wins there is every likelihood that the democrats don't accept the result.

I think there's going to be political trouble/violence no matter who wins.
 
I'll buyit. from a recent newsletter, that might have come across the Gumnut Family Office desk, recently?

"... According to the Election Betting Odds tracker which consolidates the odds from 5 major bookmakers, Trump now has a 53% chance of winning, and Harris has a 46.4% chance. As recently as 5 October Harris was the favourite.

What are the investment implications of a Trump win?

If the 2016 investment playbook is any guide, U.S smaller companies should perform well…lower taxes, less regulation and improved business sentiment etc.

The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies ... which looks like it wants to head higher, and we could see it exceeding its 2021 high. Investors, as we all know, are generally underweight smaller companies and I envisage many will look to increase their exposures in the months ahead.

Some months back, and when Biden was still in the race, we examined the impact of a likely Trump victory and stated that smaller companies would be a beneficiary.

We also saw a steepening of the U.S yield curve, as Trump’s economic policies are clearly inflationary, coupled with ever rising budget deficits and debt.

Neither Trump nor Harris have demonstrated any fiscal discipline, but Trump’s fiscal policies are arguably more stimulatory and inflationary.

In addition, we have the prospect of Trump’s much-loved tariffs... ..."
 
High tariffs aren't going to be worn by foreign nations like the EU with no consequences, USA free trade treaties will be cancelled.
Also the tax breaks proposed mainly effect the wealthy, the middle class will take a big hit. USA will suffer from inflation and the world will be in danger of a major recession.
 
wayneL said:
Just to add in to the scenarios there are actually four. Because if Trump wins there is every likelihood that the democrats don't accept the result.

I think there's going to be political trouble/violence no matter who wins.
Click to expand...
sadly , i believe you are correct ( despite i desperately hope you are wrong )

if RFK had stayed in the race and won ( a trivial chance but there was a chance ) the US may have been so stunned , they might have avoided civil unrest.

but here we are .

i think a ( near ) global recession is baked into the cake , several nations are already in recession ( or worse )

whoever wins the US election will increase tax collection , it is only a matter of who gets hit hardest and how

expect more trade barriers ( although they may be dressed up as sanctions and import duties )

i believe only a few nations will continue with free-trade ( and mainly with selected partners )

the US stock market is mostly unhinged but contrarians might be making a motza ( i avoid US/EU exposure as much as i can , it looks like a honey-trap to me )
 
but the ultra=wealthy ( and others ) have the assets wrapped up in foundations , trusts , charities etc etc etc

'taxing the rich ' essentially means squeezing the middle class harder , those who are wealthy and don't NEED to live in the US migrate ( just like they are doing in the UK and France )
 
The effect of tariffs without tax cuts is effectively a consumption tax. The tax cuts are mainly for the ultra wealthy so yes, the middle class will get it in the neck.

The result will effectively be a massive tax on lower and middle class workers to provide tax cuts to the very wealthy billionaire class.

The hope will be these tariffs and the removal of immigration will lead to a rise in pay levels however there are proposals of further limitations to labour organising to be able to realise a pay increase.
 
Both candidates are committed to a lower gasoline price at the pump so whether the oil price stays where it is or gets lower will affect our oil producers. I have held WDS and hold STO so any increase in price going forward will be the result of new discoveries, amalgamations and/or greater efficiency.

The USA is self sufficient in oil so I cannot see tariffs affecting those who invest in our oil and gas energy sector.

Uranium is coming back in to vogue again and we are one of the major sources worldwide. Unfortunately we do not produce much for export. There will be increasing pressure on Government obsessed with lip service to green policies to man up and promote the sector.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Both candidates are committed to a lower gasoline price at the pump so whether the oil price stays where it is or gets lower will affect our oil producers.
Click to expand...

HOW ?

the US has been raiding the Strategic Reserve for months ( maybe even more than a year )

now sure Trump might reduce some exploration restrictions , but apart from stealing more oil

now there might be extra rigging of the commodity markets , but real citizens need real gasoline ( and diesel )

they tried price caps and sanctions and both those came back to bite

sounds like election-dreaming to me

oh and BTW we are still sleep-walking into WW3 the MIC will be doing all they can to get that started
 

I took the above quote from @Sean K 's post in the URNM thread. This is an ETF which invests primarily in Uranium and related assets. It illustrates how the Biden/Kamala Harris' administration approaches and will approach the stimulation of American manufacturing and is anethama to Donald Trump. He is against what he calls "handouts from the swamp" and prefers to stimulate industry by the use of capitalism, i.e. leave it to the free market to build and develop industry and punish foreign competitors with tariffs or other anti-foreign measures.

We are a large Uranium containing nation. If Harris gets in we can just tag along and hopefully open more Uranium mines to supply a resurgent Uranium market or do as PEN.ASX has and situate ourselves in an area in the USA friendly to Uranium.

If Trump wins as I expect him to we need to develop special relationship status where tariffs are avoided or mitigated. This goes for all materials and energy entities in Australia.

We can no longer depend on "special status" if Trump wins. We will have to earn it.

gg
 
No news yet. Trump ahead. As expected at this stage. US futures all up. $USD up against all other currencies.

gg
 
Even where Harris has won expected states, her margins are less than Bidens' were in 2020. If I could place aa bet now I'd put it on Trump to win.

However, it is early days as most results are from more Trump leaning states.

Wall St. is punting on a Trump win.

gg
 
for eg ....Trump is up 11 points in heavily Latino Miami Dade County in Florida.
Biden won it by 7 points in 2020,
Hilary won it by 30 points in 2016
 
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