Uranium Shares have topped out

[BSD]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

Looks like some people forgot their Economics 101 : Supply - Demand.

Fund managers, analysts, techies can blow their rhetoric all they want, they still have to adhere to market forces.

Exactly

Wait for the 'supply' of uranium stocks with no earnings, feasibility studies, reserves, drilling results to hit a market with no 'demand' for similar.

The buyers of uranium shares have not been interested in the supply/demand function of the uranium market - they have been focussed on finding a bigger idiot to buy their overpriced shares

Look out below!

 

[mmmmining]

I believe James Dines or Warwrick Grigor has the better odds to pick up the uranium top. So far, have not heard it yet.

They led me to uranium, I will not try to outsmart them, to exit without their marching order.

 

[BradK]

two words

bull ****

 

[purple]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

The buyers of uranium shares have not been interested in the supply/demand function of the uranium market - they have been focussed on finding a bigger idiot to buy their overpriced shares

I have to say that the birth of Uranium explorers like mushrooms/rabbits or frog spawn is a bit alarming, I've lost count - 400? 500? now.

There is a bit of truth in what you say, and the big drop will come when people start realizing that the earnings of U companies are just not pacing the price per share.

But for the moment the construction of nuclear powered factories in China/India is not abating, nor is the price for uranium.

So.. nor am I pulling back yet as a U investor!

 

[reece55]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

Exactly

Wait for the 'supply' of uranium stocks with no earnings, feasibility studies, reserves, drilling results to hit a market with no 'demand' for similar.

The buyers of uranium shares have not been interested in the supply/demand function of the uranium market - they have been focussed on finding a bigger idiot to buy their overpriced shares

Look out below!

Completely agree with your points here BSD......

The other thing that makes you wonder is the premiums being paid i.e. PDN SMM. We only need the price in U to decrease for things to get a bit tricky, or the cost of extraction to catch up with the % change in U price......

The reality is that 90% or more of the entire sector will be worth nothing in the end - this is just a fact of life when it comes to junior exploration mining Companies. Either the resource will not be attractive to mine given the costs to get it up or they will just run out of money and no one will want to pay the excessive premium that retail investors have placed on the stocks.

However, the producers, ERA and PDN, are another story. A longer, fundamental investor may choose to enter and if they hold, chances are they will probably be ok. But the paper rich Companies with next to zero cash will plummet once the endless money tap dries up!

Cheers

 

[Realist]

two words

bull ****

Isn't that meant to be one word?

I agree with you though.

Although others suggesting some U shares are ridiculously overpriced have a very valid point.

BHP and RIO are very underpriced U shares in my humble opinion. Their PE rations of 10 or less are tremendously low.

So generalisations are unfair.

 

[Dr Doom]

Never hurts to have a balanced discussion. There are still some issues on the demand side of the equation coming up against some obstacles -

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thursday, 15 February 2007

The British government is being forced to reconsider its decision to back the construction of new nuclear power stations.

A High Court judge in London has ruled that the consultation process which led to the decision was seriously flawed.

The ruling follows a legal challenge brought by Greenpeace.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair's government has said that building new nuclear reactors as ageing facilities close down is the only way to cut reliance on oil and gas imports and meet rigorous climate change targets.

However, Mr Justice Sullivan said that in coming to its decision the UK government had failed to present clear information on key issues such as the financial costs of new nuclear build and the disposal of radioactive waste.

He found the consultation process put in place prior to the decision 'seriously flawed' and 'procedurally unfair'.

The judge said the exercise was unclear and inadequate.

The document contained no information of any substance on the two crucially important issues, economics and waste disposal, he said.

The information given on waste was 'not merely inadequate but also misleading', and information of substance did not emerge until after the consultation period had elapsed.

Mr Justice Sullivan accordingly quashed the government decision.

The British government said afterwards it still believes nuclear power has a role to play in cutting carbon emissions.

However, it could now face the prospect of having to hold a new public consultation on the future of nuclear power in Britain.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thats why it's never going to happen in my back yard eg Australia

 

[CanOz]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

95% of the U plays dont mine anything (except shareholders) and most havent even drilled a hole.

ROTFLMAO!

 

[nizar]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

The buyers of uranium shares have not been interested in the supply/demand function of the uranium market - they have been focussed on finding a bigger idiot to buy their overpriced shares

WHo cares?

Does it matter the REASON you buy or sell the shares?
Not really. What matters is the bottom line - YOUR profitability.

So i dont waste time trying to find out why a stock is going up. Instead i trade it. Much more profitable that way.

If you havent made any money trading these "hopefuls" that "wont make any money", and instead have been picking up these bargains which are fundamentally undervalued (read BHP, etc) then you my friend, have missed out BIG TIME.

 

[bean]

Buy Google Market Cap US$137 billion and US$447 a share they search and they can find a uranium stock
I am sure they do something else

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: Uranium Shares have topped out, sell them

WHo cares?

Does it matter the REASON you buy or sell the shares?
Not really. What matters is the bottom line - YOUR profitability.

So i dont waste time trying to find out why a stock is going up. Instead i trade it. Much more profitable that way.

If you havent made any money trading these "hopefuls" that "wont make any money", and instead have been picking up these bargains which are fundamentally undervalued (read BHP, etc) then you my friend, have missed out BIG TIME.

Once again words of wisdom!

 

[BSD]

I am not questioning your money making strategy in trading this stuff.

My point is that this type of strategy will not work when the majority of stocks drop 80% and lay dormant for years. Behaving like non-uranium explorers do in the early stage - no volume or volitility.

Plenty of guys that traded tech-rubbish had to go and get a job when the party ended.

You will want to be nimble when the lights get turned out.

 

[wayneL]

I am not questioning your money making strategy in trading this stuff.

My point is that this type of strategy will not work when the majority of stocks drop 80% and lay dormant for years. Behaving like non-uranium explorers do in the early stage - no volume or volitility.

Plenty of guys that traded tech-rubbish had to go and get a job when the party ended.

You will want to be nimble when the lights get turned out.

A lot of these guys have never seen a moribund spec market BSD.

The spec sector can have cobwebs for extended periods folks.

 

[greggy]

After some thought I removed the 'sell them' part of the thread title. I think it works fine as 'Uranium Shares have topped out' and I would not like to give the impression that this thread was advising anyone to sell anything (due to ASIC regulations). Nothing personal sydneysider!

As always, please, do your own research and use this thread as a starting point for discussion.

Good work Joe. I thought it was implied from the title that it was a recomendation to sell uranium stocks. Sydneysider is clearly bearish on uranium stocks, but I feel that there are still some overlooked uranium stocks out there. Time will only tell what will happen to uranium stocks, but in my opinion this is not the end of the uranium bull market. When buying uranium sotcks it all comes down to price. I've tried to select those that I consider to have been overlooked and underpriced. Hard to do in this bull market, but more value will no doubt soon emerge.
DYOR

 

[professor_frink]

A lot of these guys have never seen a moribund spec market BSD.

The spec sector can have cobwebs for extended periods folks.

And for the U sector presently, it would only take one stupid person to go and do something silly with a bomb, or a small amount of neglect at a power station(or some kind of natural disaster close to one) and the whole thing would come crashing down.
What will happen to these exploration companies that are still years off mining(if they even get that far) when no one wants the material that they may have in the ground?

It all reminds me of the tech boom- companies that make absolutely no money being talked about by "investors" based on what they could do, not what they have done.

"This company will be worth billions when they finally get around to making money. The companies market cap of 'x' hundred million is nothing compared with what it will be worth at some undetermined time in the future when they get around to making a profit. It will be too late to buy once they are profitable so I'll put a quarter of my money in it now."

Sound like a familiar kind of statement to anyone?

 

[sydneysider]

And for the U sector presently, it would only take one stupid person to go and do something silly with a bomb, or a small amount of neglect at a power station(or some kind of natural disaster close to one) and the whole thing would come crashing down.
What will happen to these exploration companies that are still years off mining(if they even get that far) when no one wants the material that they may have in the ground?

It all reminds me of the tech boom- companies that make absolutely no money being talked about by "investors" based on what they could do, not what they have done.

"This company will be worth billions when they finally get around to making money. The companies market cap of 'x' hundred million is nothing compared with what it will be worth at some undetermined time in the future when they get around to making a profit. It will be too late to buy once they are profitable so I'll put a quarter of my money in it now."

Sound like a familiar kind of statement to anyone?

I have gone thru a quick check list of U's as follows: PDN has keeled over on heavy volume, BMN is in orderly retreat, AGS, PNN, DYL topped out in December, January. Among the quality specs AEE, SIM both in retreat. WMT is very overbought, BLR is in distribution mode. MKY cut in half and looking awful. U can make your own check list BUT this is very indicative of the end of "one stage" of a sizzling bull market. U may disagree with some of my intrepretations of these stocks but sectors tend to run to-gether, u can play crap shoot roulette and try to pick the one running against the tide. I do not know if this "distribution phase" will last several weeks or several months. CNBC has devoted a lot of attention to fund managers fleeing speculative waters and U can see this in the distribution patterns especially PDN (due to its multi listing and size).

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

And for the U sector presently, it would only take one stupid person to go and do something silly with a bomb, or a small amount of neglect at a power station(or some kind of natural disaster close to one) and the whole thing would come crashing down.

True,

But what would happen if someone silly blew up a refinery in Sauidi A. or UAE?

What would happen if US and Israel went to war with Iran?

What will happen to the earth re climate change if e continue to use fossil fuels?

What will happen if we sit back and wait, guessing at peak oil and one day it comes knocking?

There are alot of ifs, buts and maybes, what we are seeing in the Uranium/Nuclear Sector is a slow but steady GLOBAL SHIFT, much like the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) phenomenon.

Evolution and change is inevitable, without it mans technology becomes obsolete and man himself may become extinct, so until renewable energy catches up I can't see a change.

p.s. How many Oil tanker disasters have we had at see in the past 50 years?

 

[nizar]

True,

But what would happen if someone silly blew up a refinery in Sauidi A. or UAE?

What would happen if US and Israel went to war with Iran?

What will happen to the earth re climate change if e continue to use fossil fuels?

What will happen if we sit back and wait, guessing at peak oil and one day it comes knocking?

There are alot of ifs, buts and maybes, what we are seeing in the Uranium/Nuclear Sector is a slow but steady GLOBAL SHIFT, much like the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) phenomenon.

Evolution and change is inevitable, without it mans technology becomes obsolete and man himself may become extinct, so until renewable energy catches up I can't see a change.

p.s. How many Oil tanker disasters have we had at see in the past 50 years?

Now thats words of wisdom!

 

[chris1983]

True,

But what would happen if someone silly blew up a refinery in Sauidi A. or UAE?

What would happen if US and Israel went to war with Iran?

What will happen to the earth re climate change if e continue to use fossil fuels?

What will happen if we sit back and wait, guessing at peak oil and one day it comes knocking?

There are alot of ifs, buts and maybes, what we are seeing in the Uranium/Nuclear Sector is a slow but steady GLOBAL SHIFT, much like the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) phenomenon.

Evolution and change is inevitable, without it mans technology becomes obsolete and man himself may become extinct, so until renewable energy catches up I can't see a change.

p.s. How many Oil tanker disasters have we had at see in the past 50 years?

HAha nice.

The what if discussion

what if.....

 

[sydneysider]

HAha nice.

The what if discussion

what if.....

WHAT IF local brokers reigned in their clients reckless speculation habits
WHAT IF a number of resonable investors decided to cash in their shares after a 300% rise
WHAT IF a bunch of speculators got hurt in the sell-off (not much fun taking a 50% hit on DYL or MKY).
WHAT IF a bunch of technical analysts told their clients to cash out and wait out the retrace.
WHAT IF the current crop of explorers continue without any sizeable discoveries for another few months.
WHAT IF gold kept running and cashed up speculators rotated into gold stock (which are currently very cheap).