Uranium Price - Where is it heading?

[peter2]

I discussed the recent rally in uranium and ASX uranium stocks in another thread. I should also post here so further discussion on uranium can continue. This chart of the uranium ETF (US) shows the recent rally from $7 to $10.



Cause? It appears that several large uranium miners have had to shut down some significant mines due to COVID-19 restrictions. Production will fall, demand is constant and expected to start growing soon as countries attempt to reduce their reliance on carbon based fuels. Prices have rallied in anticipation of increasing demand.

The ASX uranium companies are sitting on large yellowcake resources and are getting closer to production.

 

[Muckman]

I thought the plan for modular reactors was to use a MOX fuel using U-238 to fissile plutonium from spent fuel and high lvl waste ?

I don’t see the point in digging up more when you can reuse the Waste we already have a problem with in the first place. It’s the reason why we banned it.

 

[Muckman]

there is also a large amount of potential supply coming from decommissioned nuclear weapons in the future.

Where did you get that info?
Reprocessing weapons grade plutonium is big deal and requires a lot of government to get involved.

The gov owns those cores so for a country to just hand them over to a cooperation is a big dodgy deal and I’d like to know exactly what the deal was.

 

[Value Collector]

Where did you get that info?
Reprocessing weapons grade plutonium is big deal and requires a lot of government to get involved.

The gov owns those cores so for a country to just hand them over to a cooperation is a big dodgy deal and I’d like to know exactly what the deal was.

It's actually being happening for a long time.

in 1993 the Mega tons to mega watts project was initiated to help decommission Russian nuclear warheads.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatons_to_Megawatts_Program

Here is some 2017 information talking about the decommissioning of older USA war heads that will be sent to into the civilian fuel markets.
https://www.world-nuclear.org/infor...ary-warheads-as-a-source-of-nuclear-fuel.aspx


Its actually the safest method to dispose of the highly enriched uranium, it is de-enriched back to about 5% and fabricated into fuel rods and sold, and has been supplying about 19% of USA nuclear fuel needs, and has the ability to ramp up a lot.

 

[Muckman]

I have known about the mea tons to mega watts program. But thought it got scraped because it wasn’t cost effective. I remember reading it was cheeper to just make new fuel as to re proses Russian cores.
I wouldn’t think they would start using there own cores though that would be new to me. Good idea. But still if much rather to see the, to use the waits that’s laying around then to pull apart a bomb and make more waste.

Got a feeling we gonna need those nukes at some stage lol

 

[Value Collector]

I have known about the mea tons to mega watts program. But thought it got scraped because it wasn’t cost effective. I remember reading it was cheeper to just make new fuel as to re proses Russian cores.
I wouldn’t think they would start using there own cores though that would be new to me. Good idea. But still if much rather to see the, to use the waits that’s laying around then to pull apart a bomb and make more waste.

Got a feeling we gonna need those nukes at some stage lol

when it comes to disposing of nuclear warheads, or even reprocessing old spent fuel rods cost doesn’t really matter.

I mean people are willing to pay to get rid of waste, they are ok will losing money if it means their waste disappears.

So if America starts ramping up the decommissioning of their warheads, or begins reprocessing the 60 years worth of spent rods they have lying around, we might see a lot of supply hitting the market that is willing to sell at prices below the cost of production.

 

[Muckman]

Lol when it comes to anything cost is everything
It’s the whole reason why nuclear energy never really took off in the first place was because it wasn’t cost effective.
Nuclear energy was just too expensive in the end and too much regulation so it killed off the industry basically leaving us with old 1950’s GE I and II GEN reactors all over the world that are ready to melt down any time soon lol
Fukushima was just an example of what’s to come of a dying industry that got neglected and abandoned.
I really think there will be another GEN II reactor incident soon. Either be from natural disaster, Terrorism or just pure incompetence. They really need to shut those things down.

 

[Value Collector]

Lol when it comes to anything cost is everything

Not in this case.

Let's look at an example to see what I mean.

Let's say the lowest cost producer of Uranium fuel rods can supply rods for $1000 using virgin uranium, where as a company under contract to dismantle old warheads or spent fuel rods has a cost of $1500 per fuel rod.

Using your logic, the fuel rods made from waste will never enter the market because they cost more to produce.

However you are failing to see that the company making the rods from waste is also paid to take the waste in the first place, they might get paid $1000 for each waste rod they make disappear and there fore only need to sell the end product for $500 to make a profit, so they are able to under cut everyone else.

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Or in the case of a nuclear power plant that already has a problem storing waste, rather than buying a new fuel rod for $1000 and continue expanding their already over loaded waste storage, they could pay $1500 and have their spent fuel rods reprocessed into new fuel rods.

So they are paying a little more for fuel, but are not adding to their waste issues.

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Another fact you might be over looking is that in that when you reprocess rods or war heads, you can also remove other radio active elements, which can be refined into material to be used in medical fields or other industrial applications.

So the company selling reprocessed rods is getting income for taking the rods + selling other radioactive elements + the final sale of new fuel rods

These multiple income sources means they don't always have to be focused on getting the highest price for the end product, and can under cut new fuel rod prices.

 

[jbocker]

Not in this case.

Let's look at an example to see what I mean.

Let's say the lowest cost producer of Uranium fuel rods can supply rods for $1000 using virgin uranium, where as a company under contract to dismantle old warheads or spent fuel rods has a cost of $1500 per fuel rod.

Using your logic, the fuel rods made from waste will never enter the market because they cost more to produce.

However you are failing to see that the company making the rods from waste is also paid to take the waste in the first place, they might get paid $1000 for each waste rod they make disappear and there fore only need to sell the end product for $500 to make a profit, so they are able to under cut everyone else.

-----------------

Or in the case of a nuclear power plant that already has a problem storing waste, rather than buying a new fuel rod for $1000 and continue expanding their already over loaded waste storage, they could pay $1500 and have their spent fuel rods reprocessed into new fuel rods.

So they are paying a little more for fuel, but are not adding to their waste issues.

-----------------

Another fact you might be over looking is that in that when you reprocess rods or war heads, you can also remove other radio active elements, which can be refined into material to be used in medical fields or other industrial applications.

So the company selling reprocessed rods is getting income for taking the rods + selling other radioactive elements + the final sale of new fuel rods

These multiple income sources means they don't always have to be focused on getting the highest price for the end product, and can under cut new fuel rod prices.

Is this actually really the case? How does this cost compare to developing rods from the raw mined ore. I have no idea what happens with spent rods, are they at the end of the day reasonably 'harmless', compared to a new rod.

 

[Value Collector]

Is this actually really the case? How does this cost compare to developing rods from the raw mined ore. I have no idea what happens with spent rods, are they at the end of the day reasonably 'harmless', compared to a new rod.

Most countries around the world with nuclear industries reprocess spent fuel rods, except the USA.

At the moment true USA just stock pile spent fuel rods, at the actual power plant where they were used.

which means power plants in the USA a busting at the seams trying to store decades of spent rods.

Eventually they we begin reprocessing, and when that happens there will be a huge new supply of rods that will hit the market that cares very little about price, and is more about clearing these stock piles.

 

[Value Collector]

Here is a video showing a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in France.

 

[Value Collector]

I am actually fascinated by the nuclear industry, and have always wanted to invest in it.

But due to the various supply sources, I just never felt understood uranium market well enough to feel confident in knowing where prices we’re heading long term.

I have a small exposure to Uranium via BHP, but that’s it.

If I wouldn’t mind investing in a nuclear plant, or in a company that reprocessed material, but I have never found one that was under priced enough to attract me.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am actually fascinated by the nuclear industry, and have always wanted to invest in it.

But due to the various supply sources, I just never felt understood uranium market well enough to feel confident in knowing where prices we’re heading long term.

I have a small exposure to Uranium via BHP, but that’s it.

If I wouldn’t mind investing in a nuclear plant, or in a company that reprocessed material, but I have never found one that was under priced enough to attract me.

PEN is the traditional beloved stock of traders in Uranium.

Any U3 is for the brave.

PEN is ASX listed and works out of USA. It is possible that their Lance mine in Wyoming may benefit from the Orange Fool in the White House giving preferential treatment to US miners. PEN is a great stock when it trends up but that is rare, and is a trader's stock for all intents and purposes.

ERA is the main ASX listed U3 stock. It has had a bit of a run over the last few days.

Uranium stocks tend to decay rather quickly however.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

PEN is the traditional beloved stock of traders in Uranium.

Any U3 is for the brave.

PEN is ASX listed and works out of USA. It is possible that their Lance mine in Wyoming may benefit from the Orange Fool in the White House giving preferential treatment to US miners. PEN is a great stock when it trends up but that is rare, and is a trader's stock for all intents and purposes.

ERA is the main ASX listed U3 stock. It has had a bit of a run over the last few days.

Uranium stocks tend to decay rather quickly however.

gg

Yeah, as I said I am not really interested in uranium miners.

 

[Austwide]

Interesting video, I didn't realise Uranium was recycled.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yeah, as I said I am not really interested in uranium miners.

Apologies.

I'm only familiar with the Koeberg Nuclear Pwer Station which is situated in Cape Town, north of a lovely beachside place called Melkbossstrand. It is state owned and the only one in Africa. I'd imagine most are owned by large utilities often state owned in their respective countries.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

Interesting video, I didn't realise Uranium was recycled.

yep, it is in most places except the USA, the power plants in the USA literally sitting on decades of waste, that could eventually hit the recycling market.

 

[Telamelo]

PEN is the traditional beloved stock of traders in Uranium.

Any U3 is for the brave.

PEN is ASX listed and works out of USA. It is possible that their Lance mine in Wyoming may benefit from the Orange Fool in the White House giving preferential treatment to US miners. PEN is a great stock when it trends up but that is rare, and is a trader's stock for all intents and purposes.

ERA is the main ASX listed U3 stock. It has had a bit of a run over the last few days.

Uranium stocks tend to decay rather quickly however.

gg

PEN big price & volume breakout alert! to the upside this morning..

Good news announced "pre-development plans to ramp up Lance activities"!

I'll try put up a chart later on.

DYOR as always.. Cheers tela

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

PEN big price & volume breakout alert! to the upside this morning..

Good news announced "pre-development plans to ramp up Lance activities"!

I'll try put up a chart later on.

DYOR as always.. Cheers tela

lol.

PEN is like ice for day traders. They usually end up with no teeth. If it trends it can provide some good setups.

gg

 

[peter2]

Interesting. These ASX uranium companies all appeared in my weekend scan tonight (BMN, DYL, MEY, PDN, PEN, VMY). I also see that other U companies have been rallying as well last week.
URA (uranium ETF) is in a corrective rally (going up but slowly).
CCJ (large U308 miner) had an up day on Thurs which probably helped the ASX U companies on Friday. However on Friday CCJ gave up all the gains. Hmm.

I'm treating these observations as an indication that demand for uranium is slowly rising.