This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Uranium price update thread

Jump to new
AK ... thanks ... basically I blew up ... while I my hit loss ration is (was) better that 50% my MM and Risk plan was terrible.

Just in the process of rebuilding .... slowly!
 
Even better, check this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL1564323120080715

 

Regarding an Australian Uranium Index, Intierra posts their own index. It can be found by clicking here: www.intierra.com/aui_graph_current.html Although, they might have turned it into a subscriber service.

Also, Another good source for all kinds of uranium information can be found by clicking here: www.uraniumstrategies.com

Susan
 
I can publish it on this forum daily or whenever there is some interesting development. BTW it consists of only 5 stocks PDN, ERA, DYL, BLR and SMM. I will create today one with the shares from the list to see if there are any significant differences.

I usually use this other chart to gauge the Aussie uranium market breadth. It seems like we are close to the bottom.

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/135/screenhunter443sa4.jpg

I run similar indexes for banks, oil and gold market in AUS.
 

A nice chart bmgold, I've only started following U stocks recently.

gg
 

Well... if your interested in posting towards perhaps a larger audience using a greater girth of companies within your Australian Index, I can send an email to the GM of uraniumstrategies.com and see if he can create a special page and login for you to upload there.

Let me know if your interested...

Susan
 
Does anybody know whether Ospraie, the collapsed commodities-focussed hedge fund was heavily into Canadian uranium stocks such as Mega, Cameco, Denison and so on? Most are heavily down in the last week or so (like 30%) but I haven't noticed any equivalent selloff in Aussie uraniums. At least not in the ones I hold anyway (AGS, EME, SMM, TOE).
 
Up $5 to $53 last week....


http://www.uranium.info/index.cfm?go=c.page&id=103
 
The price per-pound of resource is about 2-3 times that for recent transactions such as Valhalla (VUL), Omega (OMC), Redport (whose main asset was Lake Maitland before the takeover by Mega Uranium) and the sale of Kintyre by RTZ. However, Lake Maitland is more advanced than these other projects.

This might have interesting consequences for the likes of Toro (TOE) who also have a similarly-sized calcrete uranium project in WA at a similar or slightly more advanced stage of development.

 
I have beome interested in watching uranium stocks (AGS looking likely) but having difficulty in finding a general uranium price web page similar to Kitco for gold. Any suggestions

cheers explod
 
Yeh, UXC seems to provide good info' especially where and when new reactors are to be built and which countries are becoming interested in U. I have kept an eye on this site for sometime but haven't seen too many comments or reports about Australia becoming interested in this commodity.
 
From Page 17 of Today's presentation by Toro TOE:

The Australian uranium market has fallen from EV/Resource values of around A$10-A$12/lb to around A$4/lb today
Recent corporate level transactions completed between A$8-A$10/lb (egKintyre, Honeymoon & Lake Maitland)
Click to expand...
 
Uranium price has slowly ticked lower under $50 recently surprising many analysts who continue to be bullish long term. Many here thought POU would remain bouyant for ever due to the percieved supply/demand scenario. Many were wrong. From what I had read $75 seemed a reasonable long term price with $95 the upside. I din't think we'd see sub $50 again, but maybe the GEC has been a factor also.

I'm only left with PDN as a long term position.

A recent article for consideration off Share Cafe:

Uranium: Short, Long and Stocks
BY ANDREW NELSON - 22/09/2009

Week by week the uranium spot price ticks a little lower, this week it's down a noteworthy US$2.00 to $42.50 reports uranium market consultant TradeTech. Yet while the spot price continues to slide, the longer term prospects for uranium continue to improve, at least in the eyes of some brokers.

In part, the brightening outlook of uranium is due to the lower levels of supply that the current tight times are causing. But as RBS points out, there is likely to be a sharp increase in demand in the years ahead as increasing nuclear consumption begins to kick in.

The single biggest problem facing the short-term market is the doubt being cast by the imminent release into the market of as much as 1,200 tonnes of UF6 by October 15 by the US Department of Energy. This doubt is seeing an increasing number of spot sellers deciding to take pre-emptive action and sell existing inventories before this new material finds its way into the market.

This move to lower prices has seen a number of buyers take advantage, with a total of five transactions, totalling approximately 900,000 pounds U3O8 equivalent, taking place last week. TradeTech reports that active demand is made op almost entirely of discretionary buyers, with many more still on the sidelines waiting for even lower prices.

This near term price weakness stands at stark contrast to the longer-term view held by RBS, with the broker remaining bullish on the outlook for uranium over the near and medium terms. The broker notes the growth in nuclear power capacity continues to increase each year, with high construction rates being driven by China and Russia, which it expects to continue.

Compounding the benefit that this increasing demand outlook will bring is the broker's view that current logistical, statutory and operating bottlenecks in key production regions such as Canada, Australia and Namibia, will place significant pressure on future supply plans. In fact, RBS expects the uranium market will move into a supply deficit as soon as 2014 .

So despite the last month's downward trend in the spot price, the broker sees the underlying fundamentals of increasing supply and tightening demand coming to bear soon. RBS is not only forecasting an upward trend for the term uranium price, but it also sees returning strength in spot uranium prices as well. The broker expects this trend will soon emerge and will carry on until at least 2011. At that point the broker expects the price will peak at US$95/lb as the market begins to seriously tighten ahead of the expiry of the US-Russian highly enriched uranium (HEU) programme in 2013.

Of the two big Aussie uranium plays (outside the diversifieds), RBS thinks Paladin Energy (PDN) offers the prospect of higher returns, but of course, also higher risk. Following a recent $429m private placement, the broker thinks the balance sheet is in good shape, with FY10 gearing at 16% and the company moving into a net cash position by the end of FY12. The broker also likes the company's longer-term uranium exposure given its production base is now diversified, with strong production growth and resource upgrades likely.

Paladin will still need to deliver on its production targets, though, and there is potential acquisition risk given the broker sees the company as likely to acquire assets in the next 12-18 months to lock in some kind of production growth after Langer Heinrich Stage 3 comes on-line. RBS's recommendation on the stock is Buy, with the FNArena sentiment indicator sitting at 0.3. There are just two Buys on the stock including the one from RBS, while there are also five Holds.

Yet while the broker sees Paladin as providing good leverage to the longer-term uranium picture, it also sees peer Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) as providing some good leverage to a soon to improve spot. The broker sees the stock as having much less risk on a short-term basis given its current high degree of earnings resilience and strong cash flow.

RBS expects to see expanding margins over the next few years as lower-priced legacy contracts roll off the books and the company is able to take advantage of higher spot and term prices. The broker is also counting on positive news flow over the near to medium-term, as more drill results and details on growth projects are released. That said, RBS has had to push through some downgrades to its near-term earnings forecasts on the back of higher AUD forecasts.

Still, the broker's Buy call is maintained and it is a call, much like Paladin, that is shared by only one other broker. Other than these two Buys, there are three Holds and three Sells on ERA, which make for a reading of minus 0.1 on the FNArena sentiment indicator.

TradeTech's mid-term price benchmark has remained unchanged at US$55/lb. Its longer term price benchmark remains at US$65/lb.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

2025 Full Year Stock Tipping Competiton
7 8 9
Replies
177
Views
12K
mullokintyre
  • Locked
  • Sticky
February 2025 Stock Tipping Competition Entry Thread!
2 3
Replies
44
Views
3K
farmerge
  • Locked
January 2025 Stock Tipping Competition Entry Thread!
2 3 4
Replies
63
Views
4K
Joe Blow
IL1 - Ilala Metals
Replies
2
Views
1K
System
  • Locked
November 2024 Stock Tipping Competition Entry Thread!
2
Replies
27
Views
2K
Garpal Gumnut
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...