Uranium price update thread

[happytown]

for those interested,

AusIMM (Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy) are holding "Australia's Uranium Conference 2007" from 14-17 May 2007, with conference proper on 15, 16 May, in Darwin.

Major sponsors - ERA and Cameco.

http://www.ausimm.com/main/uranium2007/home.php

cheers

 

[explod]

Notice on Kitco this morning, uranium at $120 US a pound. Had read an email alert suggesting a contract went through at $135 a pound overnight but cant' seem to pick it out of my deleted files to quote, perhaps someone else spotted same. Anyway should set some of our local producers and specs off today.

 

[james99]

If you go the the Nymex web site you can see the current contracts. Last night they were US$143, with offers at US$146. I have not checked this morning.

I anticpate that near producers and producers ought to be rerated, over time, as well as those with reaslistic prospects.

 

[wayneL]

If you go the the Nymex web site you can see the current contracts. Last night they were US$143, with offers at US$146. I have not checked this morning.

I anticpate that near producers and producers ought to be rerated, over time, as well as those with reaslistic prospects.

Follow the megadeath metal chart here (live-delayed (hows that for an oxymoron?))

http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...0x550&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=

A whole 35 contracts traded yesterday and today

I think we'll be waiting awhile for this to be a speculators contract.

 

[greggy]

Follow the megadeath metal chart here (live-delayed (hows that for an oxymoron?))

http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...0x550&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=

A whole 35 contracts traded yesterday and today

I think we'll be waiting awhile for this to be a speculators contract.

Some of the gloom and down mentality associated with uranium being traded on the futures exchange has proved to be a touch too bearish thus far. With uranium sentiment being so strong and demand currently far exceeding supply, I feel that bullish sentiment towards the commodity will not change for a while yet.
DYOR

 

[56gsa]

Notice on Kitco this morning, uranium at $120 US a pound. Had read an email alert suggesting a contract went through at $135 a pound overnight but cant' seem to pick it out of my deleted files to quote, perhaps someone else spotted same. Anyway should set some of our local producers and specs off today.

TradeTech Uranium Price Climbs to Record High
Denver, CO May 5, 2007”” The uranium spot market price soared to US$120 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8)””setting an all-time record price as the market cautiously waits for uranium futures to begin trading on May 7.

TradeTech’s weekly spot price jumped six percent on May 4, just days before the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading. It is the latest in a series of record price levels that have occurred over the past two years, as investor interest in the market surged and near-term uranium supplies remained thin.

The spot uranium market has been quiet since the mid-April announcement that NYMEX would launch a uranium futures contract. “Sellers, in particular, have been reluctant to commit to sales based on market-related pricing terms without a clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect prices in the physical market,” TradeTech President Treva Klingbiel stated. “And, the potential auction by a US producer further encouraged a ‘wait and see’ attitude by several potential sellers,” Klingbiel added.

Experienced players in the uranium market remain skeptical about futures trading, as they wait to see if it will bring increased transparency and liquidity to a market that has been traditionally dominated by end users, such as electric utilities and uranium producers.

 

[nizar]

TradeTech Uranium Price Climbs to Record High
Denver, CO May 5, 2007”” The uranium spot market price soared to US$120 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8)””setting an all-time record price as the market cautiously waits for uranium futures to begin trading on May 7.

TradeTech’s weekly spot price jumped six percent on May 4, just days before the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading. It is the latest in a series of record price levels that have occurred over the past two years, as investor interest in the market surged and near-term uranium supplies remained thin.

The spot uranium market has been quiet since the mid-April announcement that NYMEX would launch a uranium futures contract. “Sellers, in particular, have been reluctant to commit to sales based on market-related pricing terms without a clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect prices in the physical market,” TradeTech President Treva Klingbiel stated. “And, the potential auction by a US producer further encouraged a ‘wait and see’ attitude by several potential sellers,” Klingbiel added.

Experienced players in the uranium market remain skeptical about futures trading, as they wait to see if it will bring increased transparency and liquidity to a market that has been traditionally dominated by end users, such as electric utilities and uranium producers.

Is there a point to posting news articles a week after they were written?

 

[56gsa]

this might be a bit old news but just caught up with it myself - Uxc now have U at US$120 - down $10 - although trade tech has no drop...

In the Market ...
The spot uranium price remains unchanged this week at $129.00 per U3O8. After three weeks of price declines, the spot price held steady this week, in large part, due to the uncertainty created by Cameco’s announcement late Friday afternoon that its Port Hope conversion facility will be shut down for a minimum of two months. The slide in the spot uranium price over the past few weeks has been driven by weak demand and the availability of spot supplies to meet several multiples of the current level of demand. In fact, additional supply was introduced into the market this week when the US Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it is soliciting bids for the sale of up to 200 metric tons (mtU) of UF6””the equivalent of approximately 522 thousand pounds U3O8. The uranium will be sold in eight separate lots: one lot of 100 mtU, two lots of 30 mtU apiece, and five lots of 7.7 mtU each. DOE has requested bids by August 17, with delivery and payment to occur by September 21. One seller continues to evaluate bids received in response to its auction of 150 tU of UF6 (392 thousand pounds U3O8 equivalent). Several other sellers are seeking to place material through off-market transactions.

 

[56gsa]

As discussed on the PDN thread UXC now has US$110/lb as their weekly spot price, down from US$120 (http://uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx) - not sure how this then will affect the monthly price?

Does this explain ERAs recent fall in last couple of days - which to me is a bit bizarre given ERA is currently getting US$20/lb under their long-term contracts so the U price could fall to $50 and they would still have the potential to double revenue!!

 

[spooly74]

Uranium Falls to Lowest Since March, TradeTech Says (Update1)

By Yuriy Humber

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium dropped to the lowest since March because of an oversupply of the metal used to make fuel for nuclear reactors, according to TradeTech LLC, an industry consulting company.

Metal for immediate delivery fell to $105 a pound, Denver- based TradeTech said in a weekly report published Aug. 10. One transaction was reported last week, TradeTech said. Tullett Prebon Plc, the world's second-largest inter-dealer broker and a dealer in uranium-futures contracts, sold 50,000 pounds of the metal at $105.

``Although current buying interest remains weak with only four discretionary buyers in the market, some are watching the recent drop in prices closely with a view toward reentering the market,'' TradeTech said.

The spot price has fallen 24 percent since rising to a record $138 in June. Utilities, the biggest buyers of uranium, have slowed purchases after building up inventories. Rising supply, the lending of material between users and concern over nuclear accidents after an earthquake in Japan last month caused a fire at a power plant have also pushed prices lower.

Demand on the spot market dropped to 800,000 pounds last week. Supply stood at 4 million pounds of uranium oxide concentrate, or yellowcake, TradeTech said July 27.

Prices may fall to as low as $70 as the U.S. Department of Energy prepares to auction 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride, a processed form of yellowcake, next week, said Mikhail Stiskin, an analyst with Troika Dialog in Moscow.

`Damage'

``I'm afraid that this auction will seriously damage the spot market,'' Stiskin said. ``Everyone's waiting for the auction to pass before revaluating their options.''

Futures contracts for delivery in February and in March dropped 16 percent last week to $99 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

``The spot price is still very high, and maybe utilities are waiting for it to come down,'' said Ossi Koskivirta, nuclear fuel purchasing manager with Espoo, Finland-based Fortum Oyj.

Koskivirta said spot prices will fall to $80 a pound. Still, mining companies will be ``very satisfied'' with sales at current prices as production costs at new mines are about $40 a pound, Koskivirta said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aXlX6qebO53Y&refer=canada

 

[insider]

:bonk: Under the hammer

 

[bravo]

Uranium To Be Auctioned Next Week
Topic: Uranium — August 13th, 2007

The US department of Energy is planning to auction 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride, a type of processed yellowcake next week. So what can we expect?

Well we are surprised that they would rather have the cash than the product given the supply shortages and the ever-growing demand, but that is by the by.

We start with TradeTech LLC who according to Bloomberg reported this week that the metal fell for immediate delivery falling to $105/lb. This was apparently based on one transaction only for 50,000 pounds, but as it is all we have to go on, there it is.

The second indicator we can look at is the NYMEX Futures Market where we can ascertain that prices are indeed lower than they were last week:

December 2007 $109/lb
January 2008 $99/lb
June 2008 $103/lb
July 2008 $111/lb

At a guess this auction, in the middle of the quiet season, could return a price of around a $100/lb. If it is sub $100/lb then we will have to endure the bears leading the headlines with “The Return of Vegetable Oil” etc.

However please bear in mind that we are talking about the spot price which for a long time has been running way above the average longer-term price of $95/lb. The spot price will be more volatile than the longer-term price as with any commodity or asset class.

Secondly we need to be aware of the mining costs of uranium which as we understand it are on average around $30 - $40/lb. So if we assume the higher figure of $40/lb for our costs and the lower figure of $95/lb for the value then we are looking at a profit of $55/lb.

We agree that this is not an in-depth financial analysis of the uranium market sector but it gives us some comfort that all is not lost.

Finally, we will see what transpires over the coming days, weeks and months regarding uranium stocks. Our humble opinion is that there will be some consolidation going forward but the downside is now limited. Its impossible to pin point the exact day of a top or a bottom but last Friday, 10th August 2007 could well be looked upon as the final day of capitulation for uranium stock holders.

For what it is worth we have not sold any of our uranium stocks and we will continue to look for bargain basement opportunities to accumulate before they disappear with the negativity that weighs heavy on many investors minds at the moment.

Have a good one.
Uranium Chart 13 August 2007


Hi guys, This article from U3O8.biz, last updated.

 

[powerkoala]

oh, more bad news arrives.
what has happened to uranium stocks still not enough?
jeez.. almost all of them down 40-80% from record high.
should all sp back to 1 cent?
can't believe when uranium hype is gone, the leftover is like this.
is uranium still be champion on 2008 ???

 

[bravo]

Desperately seeking uranium
Article by Michael Petek
Wednesday 15th August 2007, 19:59
Die Welt

Against the background of the increasing importance of nuclear energy worldwide, French nuclear company Areva is short of raw materials. Experts believe this could presage a shortage of uranium.

Fears were triggered by the flooding of an uranium mine in Canada and political tensions in Niger. The price per pound of uranium has tripled in the space of a year to US$138 (101 Euros). Pessimistic forecasters predict that uranium could become scarce in 2040 at the latest, or perhaps as early as in the coming decade. However, experts expect supply problems over a much longer terms.

The state-owned company Areva, a world market leader in the nuclear industry, is in large measure dependent on uranium mines outside France. Reserves in the southern French département of Hérault are almost completely exhausted, producing in the past year only five tons of uranium. Areva produced 5,272 tonnes of uranium in 2005, but plans to increase production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2012. Half of current production is from Canadian mines, 43 from Niger and the rest from Kazakhstan.

Areva has been having increasing problems with Niger, the world’s third-largest producer of uranium. Until now the French nuclear giant enjoyed a monopoly position in the uranium trade, but when the local head of Areva, Dominique Pin, was deported Niger put pressure on the company to renegotiate contracts.

Furthermore the price of uranium per pound for this year was raised retrospectively by half to US$40. This is still low in comparison to the world market price, but it could rise still further as the government of Niger wants to renegotiate the price for 2008.

Areva therefore has to look hard for new uranium deposits to secure its supply on a broader base. As a first step Areva took, in July, a 93 per cent share in Canadian uranium mining company Uramin for US$2.5 billion (1.8 billion Euros). Uramin, founded only two years ago, runs operations in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic and intends to produce 7,000 tonnes of uranium per year from 2012.

In another step Areva intends to invest heavily in research into new uranium reserves, employing 100 new geologists. Areva President Anne Lauvergeon plans to treble spending on these projects, and according to media reports is paying particular attention to Gabon which is thought to have more deposits of uranium.

However, the French company is not the only one with an interest in the African nation. Canadian company Cameco is said to have sent a delegation to Gabon.

Uranium supply is not Areva’s only cause for concern. On Friday Framatome, which is merged its nuclear activities with Siemens, had to announce further delays in the construction of the EPR pressurised water reactor in Finland, which was originally expected to enter service in 2009 before being delayed until the end of 2010. It will not now enter service until 2011.

Comments
Uranium production decline
Posted by John Busby on Wednesday 15.08.2007, 08:56 PM
See my article "A little makes a lot?" in the Real Resources Review on Sanders Research website

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1300&Itemid=105

 

[exgeo]

Market commentator and newsletter author James Dines of the Dines letter sent out an email circular to subscribers yesterday, urging subscribers not to sell their holdings in panic only to regret it later. He forecasts Uranium may trade down to US $80/lb before picking up again. US $80/lb is still pretty good for producers (ERA get about US $15/lb I think because of long-term contracts written in the uranium dark-age). The real shortage of metal has not gone away, it is merely the forced selling of hedge funds which is caneing the stocks and the metal itself, as some funds bought uranium metal. Have a look at the chart of Mega Uranium in Toronto to see what forced selling looks like! Mr Dines mentions that Mega has CAD $100m in cash, so should recover quickly once the forced sellers are sold out, or bankrupt. He himself is a buyer at these levels he says. For anyone with more than a few thousand dollars in the uranium area, I'd recommend a subscription. He's rather evangelical if you hear him speak (there's a webcast on minesite.com) but he knows his stuff I think.

 

[spooly74]

The Uranium spot is now at $90 and Dec futures at $68 !!!

Short term correction, or the start of a significant downturn ?

 

[eMark]

The Uranium spot is now at $90 and Dec futures at $68 !!!

Short term correction, or the start of a significant downturn ?

From what I have read it may trade as low as $80. I'd say we are in the middle of a correction. Uranium stocks have already been hit hard. I wonder if the correction has already been priced into stocks, or whether they are going to experience further falls.

 

[bravo]

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Thursday, August 23rd, 2007

Should We Worry About Uranium at $90/lb?
By Keith Kohl


Baltimore, MD-This hasn't been the greatest summer for uranium's spot price. After reaching $136 a pound in July, spot prices fell to $90 recently. This drop, however, shouldn't be too alarming when taking in the entire picture.

What a difference a few weeks can make.

Since July, uranium's spot price has fallen aobut 29% to $90 pound. And very day since that drop, I've heard the same thing over and over from my readers...

"It was a good run and all, but aren't uranium producers about to get pummeled. Is this the time to throw in the towel on our uranium plays?"

I would think twice before doing so.

The reason is simple. We've been expecting this correction for years. Uranium prices have risen dramatically over the last few years. Losing 30% is nothing compared to the long term gains that yellowcake has made.

Sure, looking at a two-month chart of uranium's spot price will make you cringe a little. But don't forget this...



Uranium was sold in 2002 for under $8 a pound! I'm pretty sure that most of us would take over a 1000% gain over five years.

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So what exactly happened a few short weeks ago?

Spot prices fell to to $90 a pound after the Department of Energy's auction last week, which put up approximately 200 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride. Uranium hexafluoride is a type of processed yellowcake (U3O8).

But during this short term correction, we can still remain incredibly bulish on yellowcake. We can blame nuclear energy for that.

The Nuclear Demand for Electricity

According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), a total of 78,458 tons of U3O8 is needed for the 438 nuclear reactors currently operating around the world in 2007.

The problem, however, is that global uranium production is still falling short of that amount. Last year, mines only produced about 39, 429 tons of uranium (only about 46,499 tons of U3O8). The gap between supply and demand is going to continue to widen over the next several years.

It isn't surprising that China and India are leading the pack. India's demand for electricity is expected to more than double by 2015.

In 2007, the construction of 288 nuclear reactors were planned, proposed or already underway. Over 45% of those were located in either India or China. By 2010, India will have six new reactors completed.

China is much more ambitious. More than 110 nuclear reactors were planned or proposed this year. The country hopes to quadruple their nuclear capactiy by 2020.

But where does this leave us? Since the spot price has fallen so much in the last weeks, are these uranium producers still worth our time and money?

Absolutely.

Let's take a look at uranium producers for a second. The current $90 per pound spot price for uranium is more than double their mining costs, which are estimated to reach up to $40 a pound. So these companies will still be able to shine despite this correction.

Just consider the future role that nuclear power will play over the next few decades. It's the logical solution to our energy crisis. As oil and other fossil fuels become too expensive to extract, we're going to need a new source of energy on a massive scale.

Until next time,



Keith Kohl

 

[lancer]

Hoping U price has hit the bottom. Any word yet for this weeks price?

 

[powerkoala]

Breaking news!!!
PRIME Minister John Howard and President Vladimir Putin have signed a deal for Australia to sell uranium to Russia.

The two leaders signed the deal after talks in Mr Howard's Sydney office this morning, ahead of a joint press conference.

Mr Putin, the first Russian leader to visit Australia, flew in to Sydney earlier this morning to attend the APEC summit of world leaders.

read the complete news here
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22377859-5013109,00.html

hope this will bring the uranium bulls in action