Uranium, a Raging Bull
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Sean K
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Uranium Survey: Price to Head Higher
April 30, 2007 01:41 PM EST
This past week, Dow Jones MarketWatch reporter Myra Saefong contacted us with some very interesting questions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. The New York Mercantile Exchange will introduce on- and off-exchange traded uranium futures products for trading on May 7th.
Rather than simply respond with our opinion, we decided to poll a cross-section of our readership. While not every subscriber was surveyed, we did receive an adequate sampling – about 400 readers.
To achieve a balanced geographical polling, we emailed to readers in about 60 countries. More than 60 percent of our readership is in the United States. Other key geographical regions include Japan, Canada, Germany, Israel, France, Spain/Portugal, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Mexico, and Australia/New Zealand. Readers included a good cross-section of those interested in the uranium and nuclear fuel sector: utilities, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds and retail investors.
The survey consensus confirmed there would be stronger interest in uranium. But, we also discovered this strong interest would also bring greater price volatility. Many believed NYMEX futures trading would not bring transparency to the uranium price. Less than one-half believed futures trading would bring this about.
More than 66 percent believed the uranium price would go higher, but less than 7 percent said they would trade uranium futures contracts over the next twelve months. More than 40 percent of our readers voted that those most likely to benefit from uranium futures trading would be current and near-term uranium mining companies.
Current producers include Cameco Corp (CCJ), Denison Mines (DNN), Uranium One (SXRFF); near-term producers include Energy Metals (EMU), Uranerz Energy (URZ) and Strathmore Minerals (STHFJ).
To review the survey results - http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/NYMEX-Uranium-Futures-Survey.html
April 30, 2007 01:41 PM EST
This past week, Dow Jones MarketWatch reporter Myra Saefong contacted us with some very interesting questions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. The New York Mercantile Exchange will introduce on- and off-exchange traded uranium futures products for trading on May 7th.
Rather than simply respond with our opinion, we decided to poll a cross-section of our readership. While not every subscriber was surveyed, we did receive an adequate sampling – about 400 readers.
To achieve a balanced geographical polling, we emailed to readers in about 60 countries. More than 60 percent of our readership is in the United States. Other key geographical regions include Japan, Canada, Germany, Israel, France, Spain/Portugal, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Mexico, and Australia/New Zealand. Readers included a good cross-section of those interested in the uranium and nuclear fuel sector: utilities, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds and retail investors.
The survey consensus confirmed there would be stronger interest in uranium. But, we also discovered this strong interest would also bring greater price volatility. Many believed NYMEX futures trading would not bring transparency to the uranium price. Less than one-half believed futures trading would bring this about.
More than 66 percent believed the uranium price would go higher, but less than 7 percent said they would trade uranium futures contracts over the next twelve months. More than 40 percent of our readers voted that those most likely to benefit from uranium futures trading would be current and near-term uranium mining companies.
Current producers include Cameco Corp (CCJ), Denison Mines (DNN), Uranium One (SXRFF); near-term producers include Energy Metals (EMU), Uranerz Energy (URZ) and Strathmore Minerals (STHFJ).
To review the survey results - http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/NYMEX-Uranium-Futures-Survey.html
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Oh i think that the stocks are going to go up, then down a little then up again, but then later they will come down again.
I agree
So why the drop guys?
Most would think a good rise with a good ann eh?
We had an up morning and mixed emotions in the afternoon on Monday, then Tuesday saw most U stocks with the most potential plummet.
And today no bounce?
To me some of these guys are screaming buys. I don't get it
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So why the drop guys?
Most would think a good rise with a good ann eh?
We had an up morning and mixed emotions in the afternoon on Monday, then Tuesday saw most U stocks with the most potential plummet.
And today no bounce?
To me some of these guys are screaming buys. I don't get it
All part of the up and down process
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All part of the up and down process
I've heard of the completely random up and down process
So why the drop guys?
Most would think a good rise with a good ann eh?
We had an up morning and mixed emotions in the afternoon on Monday, then Tuesday saw most U stocks with the most potential plummet.
And today no bounce?
To me some of these guys are screaming buys. I don't get it
I would hope that PDN is finding a bottom in the low 9's. It appears to be holding today. I check the TSX most nights (much to my disdain), and PDN over there has continued to fall the last few days. Surely it is due for some kind of boumce soon; that is apart from the 'correction' that we will no doubt have soon enough. (Posted in PDN also)
Does anyone know what is going to happen with the NYMEX trading u308 as I hear that the NYMEX price won't be linked to the physical commodity which is very unusual as all other commodities are linked.
Does this mean that if the NYMEX price goes up to say $150 that it's not linked to the physical commodity and therefore doesn't have a financial impact on the mining companies?
How will we all know what the real going price is for the physical commodity(u308)??
Does this mean that if the NYMEX price goes up to say $150 that it's not linked to the physical commodity and therefore doesn't have a financial impact on the mining companies?
How will we all know what the real going price is for the physical commodity(u308)??
All-Time Record Uranium Spot Price: US$120/Pound
All-Time Record Uranium Spot Price: US$120/Pound
Buyers Fail to Attract Sellers despite Firm Bids
“Bids were made through a variety of channels, including postings on New York Nuclear’s Uranium On-Line,” reported Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel in Friday’s issue. “Sellers were unresponsive and buyers were unable to conclude purchases by week’s end.” As a result the weekly spot uranium price indicator was increased to US$120/pound.
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/05052007/Record-Uranium-Spot-Price.html?section=news&action=d...
All-Time Record Uranium Spot Price: US$120/Pound
Buyers Fail to Attract Sellers despite Firm Bids
“Bids were made through a variety of channels, including postings on New York Nuclear’s Uranium On-Line,” reported Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel in Friday’s issue. “Sellers were unresponsive and buyers were unable to conclude purchases by week’s end.” As a result the weekly spot uranium price indicator was increased to US$120/pound.
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/05052007/Record-Uranium-Spot-Price.html?section=news&action=d...
All-Time Record Uranium Spot Price: US$120/Pound
Buyers Fail to Attract Sellers despite Firm Bids
Whether it’s constant or inflation-adjusted dollars, spot uranium now trades at the highest level in history at U.S. $120/pound. Chart courtesy of TradeTech, which has been reporting the spot uranium price since 1968. Changes in the weekly spot uranium price are posted on the company’s website at www.uranium.info
“Bids were made through a variety of channels, including postings on New York Nuclear’s Uranium On-Line,” reported Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel in Friday’s issue. “Sellers were unresponsive and buyers were unable to conclude purchases by week’s end.” As a result the weekly spot uranium price indicator was increased to US$120/pound.
As we have advised the growing number of media contacting StockInterview.com, the market is in a ‘wait and see’ phase ahead of NYMEX futures trading. Sellers are not eager to quickly sell out, and continue to stretch their speculation to the limit. The gulf between the weekly spot price and the long-term uranium price now stands at $35/pound. This was the long-term uranium price in November 2005; now the dollar amount is the spread between spot and long-term.
Since January 2001, spot uranium has skyrocketed by 1775 percent. Over the past twelve months, U3O8 is 179 percent higher. The astounding price rise has fueled unusual price predictions across the Internet by less well-informed commentators. Discussions we had with Sprott Asset Management’s Kevin Bambrough, exactly 16 months ago, regarding his notion of a purely hypothetical uranium price of US$500/pound, are presently being forecast by the more enthusiastic price promoters. One of the more naïve has announced it could happen ‘in the blink of an eye.’
A strong reason deterring potential sellers from quickly parting with their precious U3O8 is the potential auction at the end of May by Texas-based Mestena Uranium LLC. Recent significant spikes in the spot uranium price followed the opening of sealed bids for modest quantities of the company’s yellowcake production.
According to NMR, both the conversion and enrichment markets remained quiet ahead of the NYMEX uranium futures trading soon commencing. “Market participants are awaiting with great curiosity the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading,” Klingbiel wrote. Sellers are wary of committing to sales based on market-related pricing without a ‘clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect in the physical market,’ according to NMR.
Utility representatives attended this past week’s NYMEX seminars in New York and Atlanta to better understand how futures trading would impact their ability to purchase uranium. Exelon Corp’s (EXC) Jim Malone reportedly commented he would study futures trading as a possible risk management vehicle for the largest utility in the U.S.
Buyers Fail to Attract Sellers despite Firm Bids
Whether it’s constant or inflation-adjusted dollars, spot uranium now trades at the highest level in history at U.S. $120/pound. Chart courtesy of TradeTech, which has been reporting the spot uranium price since 1968. Changes in the weekly spot uranium price are posted on the company’s website at www.uranium.info
“Bids were made through a variety of channels, including postings on New York Nuclear’s Uranium On-Line,” reported Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel in Friday’s issue. “Sellers were unresponsive and buyers were unable to conclude purchases by week’s end.” As a result the weekly spot uranium price indicator was increased to US$120/pound.
As we have advised the growing number of media contacting StockInterview.com, the market is in a ‘wait and see’ phase ahead of NYMEX futures trading. Sellers are not eager to quickly sell out, and continue to stretch their speculation to the limit. The gulf between the weekly spot price and the long-term uranium price now stands at $35/pound. This was the long-term uranium price in November 2005; now the dollar amount is the spread between spot and long-term.
Since January 2001, spot uranium has skyrocketed by 1775 percent. Over the past twelve months, U3O8 is 179 percent higher. The astounding price rise has fueled unusual price predictions across the Internet by less well-informed commentators. Discussions we had with Sprott Asset Management’s Kevin Bambrough, exactly 16 months ago, regarding his notion of a purely hypothetical uranium price of US$500/pound, are presently being forecast by the more enthusiastic price promoters. One of the more naïve has announced it could happen ‘in the blink of an eye.’
A strong reason deterring potential sellers from quickly parting with their precious U3O8 is the potential auction at the end of May by Texas-based Mestena Uranium LLC. Recent significant spikes in the spot uranium price followed the opening of sealed bids for modest quantities of the company’s yellowcake production.
According to NMR, both the conversion and enrichment markets remained quiet ahead of the NYMEX uranium futures trading soon commencing. “Market participants are awaiting with great curiosity the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading,” Klingbiel wrote. Sellers are wary of committing to sales based on market-related pricing without a ‘clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect in the physical market,’ according to NMR.
Utility representatives attended this past week’s NYMEX seminars in New York and Atlanta to better understand how futures trading would impact their ability to purchase uranium. Exelon Corp’s (EXC) Jim Malone reportedly commented he would study futures trading as a possible risk management vehicle for the largest utility in the U.S.
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wow people now talking about $500 per pound of uranium!
that would put PDN in great stead for some bumper profits!
anyway i think this increase in particular uranium stocks of late is showing the market is been more selective in which companies to put money in. for australian stocks i see near term producers as:
AGS - Premier supporting mine, starting PFS and obtaining mining lease
CUY - Premier supporting mine, starting insitu leach trial plant second half of this year then permit to mine
so far these two seem the most advanced to me, fast tracking development to take advantage of these high uranium spot prices, and the fact is both will be using in situ leach, quick to setup and very cheap when compared to conventional mining techniques
that would put PDN in great stead for some bumper profits!
anyway i think this increase in particular uranium stocks of late is showing the market is been more selective in which companies to put money in. for australian stocks i see near term producers as:
AGS - Premier supporting mine, starting PFS and obtaining mining lease
CUY - Premier supporting mine, starting insitu leach trial plant second half of this year then permit to mine
so far these two seem the most advanced to me, fast tracking development to take advantage of these high uranium spot prices, and the fact is both will be using in situ leach, quick to setup and very cheap when compared to conventional mining techniques
AGS havent even got a JORC yet.
Lets take it one step at a time....
neither does CUY......CUY has a leach plan for what was it 25 t of u308? and they aren't allowed to sell it...CUY is a mine without a JORC compliant resource
I pull up CUY's market cap and its 2.6*65 = ~$170m. Thats a lot for a company without a JORC or any good grade actual drill hits(which ags has)
In conclusion: CUY is just a bit part explorer.
Just a query
Uranium has risen in price for quite a few years.
The price has had no correction during that time.
Now what would happen to shares if the price dropped one week but say it dropped the next week as well.
I am not saying the price is going to drop.
I am only wondering what reaction the shares would do.
small drop, nothing, or a large drop
Uranium has risen in price for quite a few years.
The price has had no correction during that time.
Now what would happen to shares if the price dropped one week but say it dropped the next week as well.
I am not saying the price is going to drop.
I am only wondering what reaction the shares would do.
small drop, nothing, or a large drop
Have a good look at how the oil price has gone over the last 4 years and how the oil companies share prices have been volatile and that will give you a very good indication. I like volatility as thats when you can make some very good returns.
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neither does CUY......CUY has a leach plan for what was it 25 t of u308? and they aren't allowed to sell it...CUY is a mine without a JORC compliant resource
I pull up CUY's market cap and its 2.6*65 = ~$170m. Thats a lot for a company without a JORC or any good grade actual drill hits(which ags has)
In conclusion: CUY is just a bit part explorer.
im only talking about companies that are beginning to fast track to production stage. these two in particular have caught my eye due to the fact that insitu leach can be setup within 1 and half to 2 years.
CUY have yet to release the JORC on their tenements, thats what latest round of drilling has been for apparantly
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also the fact that JP Morgan took a placement in CUY at $2 recently, obviously sets a floor. CUY have also been given go ahead for trial leach mining which i CANNOT see any other company doing so far in australia (from explorer point of view) which pending positive trials will apply for commercial mining lease.
qoute from insitu leach trial ann
If the outcome of trials is positive as we expect then we will seek further environmental and other approvals from the Commonwealth Government to allow us to mine and export uranium. At the same time we will apply for a Mining Lease from the South Australian government and proceed as quickly as possible to production to take advantage of current buoyant uranium prices
seems more advanced than others just plugging holes in the ground
qoute from insitu leach trial ann
If the outcome of trials is positive as we expect then we will seek further environmental and other approvals from the Commonwealth Government to allow us to mine and export uranium. At the same time we will apply for a Mining Lease from the South Australian government and proceed as quickly as possible to production to take advantage of current buoyant uranium prices
seems more advanced than others just plugging holes in the ground
