Uranium, a Raging Bull

[TheAbyss]

I was having a quiet discussion over a beer with a policy advisor in the Qld state Labor Party who was of the opinion that there will definitly be a chnage to the current U policy mainly due to a strong push by a couple of the unions.

I have emailed him to ask if he minds if i use his comments without naming him and if ok i will post his reasoning as to why there will be some good news for investors of australian based U expolorers and producers.

Also there is a lot of press coverage at the moment educating joe public why it is ok to mine and sell U to other countries with the proviso that the buyers are vetted prior to selling to them. My opinion is that we are being prepared via the media for the change that is coming. If the press and policy advisors are agreeing then it is a strong possibility.

Whether this amendment to to a "cobbled bit of policy from the Bob Hawke era" is built into the price already or some upward movement will come? My thoughts are that we we should look inside ourselves as traders. We all have that nagging doubt (some more than others) about Australian based miners/ explorers due to the possibility that they wont be able to mine or sell the product. If the doubts are removed then that has to give traders in general some confidence to move forward.

 

[mmmmining]

Uranium stocks are ominously quiet. Are we waiting for US$100 uranium?

What about the depreciation of US$? Does it mean anything if Uranium price is up 10%, and Aussie$ has 10% appreciation?

If this is the case, Would it be an advantage by investing uranium stock has US projects? The depreciation of US$ won't hurt producers in US as much, right?

Recently more and more companies start looking at US uranium properties. How many US players are there? I cannot count:
UKL, WHE, BLR, XST, PEN, WMT, who else?

I understand that things can move a lot fast than in Aussie if there is benefits for every stakeholder. With cheap ISL method, it is possible that some of them can be a producer within 2 years. But you need very strong people to manage projects to be success. I guess the qualification of these companies' management team is very important.

Have you spot one yet?

 

[greggy]

I think the day the ann by the Labor Party comes out will be a big boost to Aust U stocks. I have been thinking that it might be 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' but I have a feeling that it might go the other way. Why? I have this little twinge in my lower back......Good luck, will be interesting times.

For my 2 cents worth, I feel that should the ALP conference choose to support uranium mining the key will be whether the WA's Mr Carpenter will end his ban on new uranium mines. But there again, the way WA is going Mr Carpenter may end up resigning as Premier before the conference.
P.S. I've never met or seen Brian Burke!!

 

[Jimminy]

I completely agree........there are quite a lot companies with uranium exploration interests in WA. Uranex is one of the top of my head.

But I think it is a feteaccompli for other states to receive the green light going by the what Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd are on the record as saying.

If WA receives the green light from the carpenter govt then there will be a rally in those with advanced uranium interests.

However, I don't believe that the carpenter govt will allow it. They are categorically on the record as saying that pre-election promise was to make sure there was no uranium mining for their current term.

A commentator wrote some months ago that the likely scenario is the for status quo to prevail until the next election with the next election needed to be completed by the 28 March 2009.

It might then be the case that a Labor govt will only approve u mining in WA if re-elected and a post-election referendum dictates a change in policy.

It was worth noting that this commentator also wrote that many of the Uranium explorers in WA don't care too much for the current politics as most will not require a change in policy til 2009 or later in any case in advancing their projects - such are the early stages of exploration that many companies are in. JORC, BFS, etc etc need to come first.

In any case, if one is willing to gamble on RMG like a few of you are ; then betting on a WA policy change seems like low risk. :

 

[spooly74]

Update from Cameco yesterday

Production startup for Cigar Lake is targeted for 2010, subject to regulatory approval and timely remediation.

Had initially been planned for 2008, so looks like it's a minimum 2 year delay.

http://www.cameco.com/media_gateway/news_releases/2007/news_release.php?id=175

 

[Fab]

Update from Cameco yesterday

Production startup for Cigar Lake is targeted for 2010, subject to regulatory approval and timely remediation.

Had initially been planned for 2008, so looks like it's a minimum 2 year delay.

http://www.cameco.com/media_gateway/news_releases/2007/news_release.php?id=175

Thanks bearing in mind Cameco will be delayed for few years now. I am surprised that PDN has not jumped when this was announced. Any idea why?

 

[spooly74]

Thanks bearing in mind Cameco will be delayed for few years now. I am surprised that PDN has not jumped when this was announced. Any idea why?

The delay has been expected and I`d imagine it was already factored in months ago.
That said, any further serious delays from Cigar Lake and you could see some more gains.

 

[the barry]

The delay has been expected and I`d imagine it was already factored in months ago.
That said, any further serious delays from Cigar Lake and you could see some more gains.

If you read the risk factors in the latest Cameco report on Cigar Lake you get the picture that it is no certainty to reach production in 2010. They still have to contend with the flooding which is a real problem. The freezing process sounds incredibly complicated. Not to mention the 180 odd million that is going to cost to fix. origional estimate at 330 mill which has blow out to over 500 million.

They will be lucky to be inproduction by 2010. Read the method of extracting the Uranium to understand how complex it is. There is a lot that can go wrong & most likely will. Add to the mix the ranger mine flooding & it means adecrease in supply & increase in demand. All at the right time for PDN.

Those factors should see more pressure on the spot price to rise.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Guys theres a URANIUM CONFERENCE on this week Thursday and Friday (sure caught me by surprise)

Link http://www.paydirtsuraniumconference.com/

Surprised to see MDX there

Surprised that others like EME aren't there

 

[purple]

All at the right time for PDN.
Those factors should see more pressure on the spot price to rise.

still, PDN is on the same roughly 45deg angle upwards movement that it displayed all through '06. has not risen vertically yet.

 

[insider]

Guys theres a URANIUM CONFERENCE on this week Thursday and Friday (sure caught me by surprise)

Link http://www.paydirtsuraniumconference.com/

Surprised to see MDX there

Surprised that others like EME aren't there

I've been waiting 3 months for this conference... Should be some good publicity for those listed as presenters... I hope your favorites are there!!

 

[mmmmining]

I've been waiting 3 months for this conference... Should be some good publicity for those listed as presenters... I hope your favorites are there!!

Neither SMM (cat) nor PDN (dog)

Also missing BHP, but most of juniors with uranium interests in SA will be there. It seems a SA things.

 

[wotthe]

Are uranium shares out of favour since the correction we had to have?

The reason I ask is the lack of interest in LMG and PEN, coupled with UNX, off 9.5 today and, while ERO is up 3, it's been pretty quiet since its recent ann.

Am I just paranoid ... perhaps looking at the wrong companies?

 

[the barry]

Are uranium shares out of favour since the correction we had to have?

The reason I ask is the lack of interest in LMG and PEN, coupled with UNX, off 9.5 today and, while ERO is up 3, it's been pretty quiet since its recent ann.

Am I just paranoid ... perhaps looking at the wrong companies?

I dont know what you expect from ero, its well up over 50 percent since that announcement.

 

[Jimminy]

Are uranium shares out of favour since the correction we had to have?

The reason I ask is the lack of interest in LMG and PEN, coupled with UNX, off 9.5 today and, while ERO is up 3, it's been pretty quiet since its recent ann.

Am I just paranoid ... perhaps looking at the wrong companies?

I can comment on unx - this has been slowly dropping over the past few months since its highs around $2.20-2.30. So it has retraced 30%.

I think WA is its problem with Thatcher Soak. Too many people are probably not prepared to wait for the WA govt to change their policy on u mining. Other than Thatcher Soak they don't really have much other spec land in Africa and NT.

But to put a positive spin on it - it had a recent placement at $1.64 and now has $18m cash in the bank to fund its exploration. It should be able to fasttrack alot of things this year with that kind of money.

But yes, quite a few u stocks are taking a breather in the past few weeks/months. Follow the trend is all I can say.

 

[mmmmining]

WA government is arrogant sob. The Primer think he is the King of Mighty Resource Kingdom. He and his assocate can decide your humble mining hopefuls' life. The rejection of CAZ's exploration right and PMA's corruption scandal are good examples.

Their policy is totally insane. They did not take uranium seriously because they are in pole position for: iron ore, nickel, natural gas, gold, copper, ... Anything you name it.

But WA cannot beat SA and NT for uranium. So they decide to ban it.

Maybe putting them in a greenhouse in a hot summer might change their large but rusty mind.

 

[greggy]

WA government is arrogant sob. The Primer think he is the King of Mighty Resource Kingdom. He and his assocate can decide your humble mining hopefuls' life. The rejection of CAZ's exploration right and PMA's corruption scandal are good examples.

Their policy is totally insane. They did not take uranium seriously because they are in pole position for: iron ore, nickel, natural gas, gold, copper, ... Anything you name it.

But WA cannot beat SA and NT for uranium. So they decide to ban it.

Maybe putting them in a greenhouse in a hot summer might change their large but rusty mind.

I am perplexed with the WA Government's attitude towards mining. Traditionally, its always been pro-mining, but uranium is apparently a dirty word. The WA Government has the worst attitude towards uranium, yet there are still many companies out there who obviously feel that the situation will change down the track. (e.g. RPT's takeover by Mega just to name one).
This leaves me with one final thought. Is Brian Burke in favour of uranium mining??

 

[happytown]

... Their policy is totally insane. They did not take uranium seriously ...

praps if it was a multi-billion dollar annual export industry they would
u exports are only worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually currently to aust (by memory from abare figures)
maybe they don't consider them big enough bikkies
and maybe they may just miss the boat
the alp policy meeting in april will provide the answers (depending on the outcome of the vote and subsequent pressures applied) and its only approx a month away

cheers

 

[Jimminy]

it is worth noting the following re; Uranium mining in Western Australia whilst Labor is in power at a State level.

I don't think we'll be seeing any change in policy. The leader has a view (and the leader before that - Gallop). That view can only ever be supported or not supported by the majority of the caucus - and the [WA Labor] caucus is dominated by the Left.

It has been noted that there was virtually unanimous support to continue the uranium mining ban at the most recent state ALP conference in WA.

A source of frustration for Nova, Uranex, etc....

 

[insider]

it is worth noting the following re; Uranium mining in Western Australia whilst Labor is in power at a State level.

I don't think we'll be seeing any change in policy. The leader has a view (and the leader before that - Gallop). That view can only ever be supported or not supported by the majority of the caucus - and the [WA Labor] caucus is dominated by the Left.

It has been noted that there was virtually unanimous support to continue the uranium mining ban at the most recent state ALP conference in WA.

A source of frustration for Nova, Uranex, etc....

I think the support to ban Uranium mining is actually their support to ban Nuclear reactors in their state... They're worried that if they give the Federal government a hand they will take the arm instead...

Just my thought...