Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Uranium, a Raging Bull

Jump to new
Great repost!

I see, there is a lot of knowledge here!

Well - I am active at the US Boards, in Germany and here (always as "panem"...).

Quite funny, how different the styles are...

Well: This article came from a uranium bull - which makes it more reliable in my eyes.


And you are right: The conclusion is still bullish.

BUT: I am active at the Frankfurter Börse since 1987:

I have seen a lot of trouble...

And I don't know how the markets would react, if the price for the big U would fall back at - let say - 55$...
 
panem said:
http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/21905.html


I tried to reach TENEX via mail but it was blocked since I am not able to write in Kyrillic...
Click to expand...

This is what they also said in the conclusion in the article.
With the current forward momentum, it is very possible the price of uranium will surpass the inflation-adjusted high before edging backward.

Therefore they don't see a crash coming in the immediate future. They stated that it would be toward the end of 2007.
 
champ2003 said:
This is what they also said in the conclusion in the article.
With the current forward momentum, it is very possible the price of uranium will surpass the inflation-adjusted high before edging backward.

Therefore they don't see a crash coming in the immediate future. They stated that it would be toward the end of 2007.
Click to expand...

The inflation adjusted price is $111
 
Between the invasion of Russian-enriched uranium, which may reach a settlement before Labor Day 2007, and the anxiety of speculators now hoarding physical uranium,
Click to expand...

I didn't think this was possible??? Is it tradable??
 
Kauri said:
I didn't think this was possible??? Is it tradable??
Click to expand...
LOL, You're really going the hard yards here Kauri. I think I might go down the street tomorrow and pick me up some of that physical uranium. Surely you can purchace Yellow Cake at any good bakery??? :D
 
champ2003 said:
This is what they also said in the conclusion in the article.
With the current forward momentum, it is very possible the price of uranium will surpass the inflation-adjusted high before edging backward.

Therefore they don't see a crash coming in the immediate future. They stated that it would be toward the end of 2007.
Click to expand...


As always: the problem will be the psychological impact of that news and the impact of a slightly decreasing U-price for the junior and explorer shareholders.

So: Better NOT to post that TENEX deal around the world....
 
Asian pledge on oil alternatives
From correspondents in Cebu
January 15, 2007

LEADERS across Asia are set to endorse a pledge to move toward nuclear and other alternative energies to help cut the region's dependence on fossil fuels.

Amid concerns about energy security, the so-called East Asia Summit (EAS) between 16 nations from China and Japan to Australia and India, meeting tomorrow for only the second time, will also vow to open up regional energy markets.

A draft of the declaration acknowledges that oil still underpins their economies and that their dependence on crude will not disappear overnight, but calls for better efforts to find future alternatives.

Biofuels, natural gas, nuclear power for selected countries, hydroelectricity and renewable energy should reduce the need for fossil fuels in future, the draft said.

Much of the document reaffirms the bloc's collective commitment to ensuring energy security which was first issued in the inaugural meeting of the EAS in Malaysia in 2005.

The draft does not mention the stockpiling of oil, a possibility which has been mooted as the energy-hungry region looks to cut its dependence on oil imports from the volatile Middle East.

Calls to reduce dependence on oil intensified after prices surged to historic peaks last year. While prices have dropped since, their continued volatility - owing in part to geopolitical tensions - remains a threat.

China, one of the world's biggest energy consumers, has widened its search for energy sources, including venturing as far as Africa.

The declaration said: "Renewable energy and nuclear power will represent an increasing share of global supply."
 
Kisses, dear Aussies!


The recent days where strong with a discussion about that upcoming TENEX deal and the USA:

We came to the conclusion that there is no thread for the big U at all.

1. They recently had to singn a letter that says that they have to MAKE SURE they will supply ALL OF RUSSIA's plants with uranium for the next 20 years.

There is only one problem: Even TENEX doesn't have that much U!

So - as you can read - they made a JV with Cameco to assure that contract with Putin.

In other words: Even if they HAD 50 Mio. lbs. to grant, they would have to give it to the Russians itself - which means: Even if the deal was on in 2007 they will have to get some nes sources of U (which they are struggling to get right now) to supply the USA market.

2. Ueanium is so rare - even TENEX won't flood the USA with it: They just don't have it: THIS is the mistake in that article: It suggests they HAVE 25% of the demand - but they DONT!


Trust me!


Kisses,

panem

PS: I know you guys need facts: So read the NEWS!

http://www.tenex.ru/digest_en.html
 
That is the reason we are all laughing in Germany:

FIRST there was this:


"Constituent documents of the Uranium mining company were signed in the collegium hall at the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy on November 2, 2006.

Uranium mining company (UMC) is established by OAO “TVEL” and JSC “TENEX” on a matching contribution basis with the assistance of the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy.

This occasion has emphasized the completion of an important preparatory stage in the consolidation of the nuclear industry’s uranium mining assets and a turn to aggressive enlargement of raw material base for the Russian nuclear energy development. The establishment of UMC will enable to integrate industrial, financial and intellectual resources of the Russian Federation’s nuclear industry in the field of exploration, mining and front-end reprocessing of natural uranium and the other minerals.

The UMC’s main objective is to maintain a long-term and sustainable supply of Russian nuclear industry with uranium feed products in compliance with the program approved by Mr. V. V. Putin, President of the Russian Federation, on June 8, 2006, as well as in compliance with the Federal Target Program “Development of the Nuclear Industrial Complex of Russia for 2007-2010 and over a period up to 2015’.

“The completion of a preparatory stage in the establishment of UMC makes it possible for us to start an actual consolidation of uranium mining assets held by JSC “TENEX” and OAO “TVEL” in Russia and abroad”, Dr. Vladimir Smirnov, Director General of JSC “TENEX”, said.

The UMC will be arranged on a stage-by-stage basis. During the first six months of 2007 institutional arrangements will be undertaken regarding the preparation by the UMC to act as a beneficial owner of uranium assets assigned by the founders.

“We are planning to complete the paperwork to formalize ownership of the uranium mining assets by the UMC during 2007, after which event the company will start full-capacity operation”, Dr. Vladimir Smirnov said"
 
Then there was this:

"TENEX signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Canadian company Cameco aimed at fulfilling plans to pursue future joint ventures in uranium exploration, development and production.

TENEX and Cameco intend to continue a dialog with the objective of preparing and signing a final agreement to this end. This will allow the companies to work jointly in exploration of uranium deposits in Russia, Canada and other prospective regions, and when such deposits are discovered – to mine uranium ores and to produce uranium. "



Believe me:


TENEX head is burning!


Where to get that f**** Uranium?


:)
 
Just for the record the USA alone consumes some 25million pounds of Uranium per year and only mines about 2.5million pounds. The world consumes about 90million pounds in 441 plants with some 140 more plants to come online. Do the maths and its hard to see any crash in the U price in the near future. The demand is going to outstrip supply for several years to come as it takes so long to get a mine up and running.
 
hi all,
Being new to this and reading a couple of threads, I can't understand why the Uranium price isn't at a record. Am I missing something or is there more to it?
 
Uncle Festivus said:
hi all,
Being new to this and reading a couple of threads, I can't understand why the Uranium price isn't at a record. Am I missing something or is there more to it?
Click to expand...
Hi Uncle F,

I think you'll find that it is at a record the last time I looked. $72.00.

Or, did you know that?

Kennas
 
hi kennas,
Is the inflation adjusted price relevant?. If so, the price still has 50% to go before it's a new all time high. What does this mean ie will a stock like PDN go to $20 even though the uranium price has only? reached the previous high?. Not sure how you value these things. Looking the other way, is it a bull market or just the price getting back to a realistic (inflation adjusted) level?.

Maybe calculate it's real value in oz of gold ;)

UF
 
Uncle Festivus said:
hi kennas,
Is the inflation adjusted price relevant?. If so, the price still has 50% to go before it's a new all time high. What does this mean ie will a stock like PDN go to $20 even though the uranium price has only? reached the previous high?. Not sure how you value these things. Looking the other way, is it a bull market or just the price getting back to a realistic (inflation adjusted) level?.

Maybe calculate it's real value in oz of gold ;)

UF
Click to expand...
I think the current price purely reflects demand. And I think the increased demand for uranium might not necessarily be part of a commodities cycle because of the changing landscape of nuclear power generation. Seems that the countries who were going to shut down reactors and switch to other fuels might be going to change policy (eg Germany), and now we have a proposed massive growth coming in from East and SE Asia which will not stop for a number of years. The price of uranium will come back down but only when the demand supply equation turns, and that doesn't seem for some time due to the lengthy time of getting new mines up and running. But, when they do - and uranium is a relatively abundant substance - prices will fall.
 
An article said China is going to extract uranium from combusted coal ashes generated by coal-fired power plant.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070116/200701160367518001.html?.v=1

Also it is true you can extract uranium from ocean water. According to my memory, the cost is about US$100/lb.

The question is if uranium price is too high, it will kill the uranium boom instantly by new technology, and new sources of supply, of course, reduced demand. Just look at oil.

I guess we should not be excited to see triple digits uranium price.

Inflation adjusted price used by some famous analyst is misleading because commodity price is decided by demand and supply. Any price spike is caused by serious imbalance between demand and supply, not on cost basis. The imbalance could be caused by disruption of supply, such as war, etc. Unless you can duplicate the demand and supply situation of last price spike, you cannot use it for the future price predication meaningfully.

But inflation adjusted price is good for government to increase taxes.
 

Similar threads

tech/a
Uranium problems - supply and disposal
Replies
4
Views
5K
laurie
L
Top