Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Uranium, a Raging Bull

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Is it just me or have the uraniums slowly started edging up today?


I noticed the following stocks

TOE up 17%
NRU UP 25%
BKY UP 6%
UNX UP 14%
PDN UP 4%
OMC UP 5%
UTO UP 24%
DYL UP 7%
RPT UP 20%
BMN UP 12%

It could just be a good day for juniours but it appears to be a Uranium Specific


Another Bull Run? ? ? ?
Thoughts?

Yep a second coming maybe?

Btw PDN is trading today?

thx

MS
 
Mega T/O for RPT!

Thats 2 takeovers in 2 days,


Keeping in mind the last 2 yrs had seen 1 uranium takeover!
 
Michael, AGS up 10% as well.

Everyone is up for grabs it seems.

They're taking a calculated risk on Labor growing some common sence though!! I can't see that happening, but happy to be on the momentum for the minute.
 
Here we go!

I'm loaded up

OMC
URA
WME
MTN
BKY


Should be plenty of speculation over the weekend of a flurry of T/O's in our Uranium Sector, get set for another short term hyper boom!
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Here we go!

I'm loaded up

OMC
URA
WME
MTN
BKY


Should be plenty of speculation over the weekend of a flurry of T/O's in our Uranium Sector, get set for another short term hyper boom!

You got some good ones there! BKY, OMC, MTN

Yeah it appears the world declared war on Aussie Uranium/Coal Juniors!

Crosby - MTN
Mega - RPT
Peabody - EXL

AUM, PDN, VUL, in trading halt atm, any others?

thx

MS
 
Seems to be worth just thowing a dart at the U3O8 board atm. :D

But please, have your finger on the sell trigger!!!!!!
 
And so it continues, with 3 mergers T/O's in as many days I believe we are ripe for a huge spec upswing in the Uranium Sector,


Strap in for lift off!







Paladin leads $200m uranium onslaught
9th July 2006, 10:57 WST





Global: Demand for uranium stocks reflects fresh interest in nuclear power, a French staple for many years. Picture: Bloomberg

The wave of consolidation sweeping the uranium sector gathered speed yesterday as emerging heavyweight Paladin Resources readied for a $100 million-plus deal in Queensland and Canadian predator Mega Uranium unveiled a friendly $100 million bid for Perth junior Redport.

The deals coincide with record uranium prices above $US45 a pound and come just two days after Hong Kong investment bank Crosby Capital Partners launched a hostile $33 million bid for South Australian uranium explorer Marathon Resources.

Paladin, the $2 billion Perth miner about to start production at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, yesterday called a trading halt in tandem with Resolute Mining-controlled Queensland explorer Valhalla Resources ahead of a pending “material transaction”.

It is understood Resolute is negotiating to sell its 83 per cent stake in Valhalla to Paladin. Valhalla shares last traded at $1.22, valuing Resolute’s stake at just over $120 million.

Valhalla’s primary asset is its 50 per cent stake in the big Valhalla and Skal uranium deposits near Mount Isa, where it is in joint venture with Perth-based Summit Resources. It also holds 41 per cent of the Bigrlyi deposit in the Northern Territory.

The Valhalla resource is one of the biggest untapped deposits in Australia, with a total resource of 25,600 tonnes of contained uranium oxide, while Skal contains about 5000 tonnes.

The acquisition, expected to be announced on Monday afternoon, will give Paladin its first substantial asset in Queensland, where Peter Beattie’s State Labor Government is considered likely to drop its ban on uranium mining long before any change of heart by WA Premier Alan Carpenter.

Paladin’s chief focus remains on Langer Heinrich and the Kayalekera project in Malawi, but it has made no secret of its desire to start mining in Australia within five to 10 years. But its primary local assets, the Manyingee and Oobagooma deposits in WA, remain untouchable under current State Government policy.

Analysts said yesterday the sale of Valhalla had been expected ever since Resolute flagged its intention to develop the $US120 million ($161 million) Syama gold project in Mali. Resolute chief Peter Sullivan yesterday declined to confirm that a sale of the company’s interest in Valhalla was imminent, but said the company was looking at “all available options” to secure funding for Syama.

“We have signalled we are considering all sorts of ways of raising money for Syama, whether it be debt, an equity issue, asset sales or a combination thereof,” he said. The prospect of an imminent cash injection sent Resolute shares racing 14 per cent higher to $2.18, while shares in partner Summit also spiked 14 per cent to $1.49.

Yet the prospects of a trouble-free deal with Paladin appear unlikely, given Summit’s own desire to consolidate the Valhalla and Skal projects.

Summit managing director Alan Eggers said yesterday Summit was watching the situation closely, however, the company is believed to have sought legal advice on its pre-emptive rights to Resolute’s interest in the joint venture.

But it is believed Resolute may be able to sidestep Summit’s pre-emptive rights by selling its interest in its subsidiary companies rather than the joint venture interests.

Redport shares surged 23 per cent to 13.5 ¢ after it unveiled Mega Uranium’s 14 ¢ a share offer.

JOHN PHACEAS
 
SMM must be worth a short term trading punt atm.

The JV with VUL will surely become a takeover offer from the combined PDN/VUL parent??

Will be looking closely at that on Monday.

What do you guys/girls think?
 
Here's my thoughts,

SMM already commands quite a large mkt cap, $150m + from memory, yet their JORC resource is not that much bigger than MTN's which trades @ $30m mkt cap, given this and the fact that SMM/VUL is in Qld as opposed to MTN's in S.A. I would be very very very suprised if PDN don't make a move on MTN, it just wouldn't make any sense to me,

We all agree S.A. is better state than QLD for Uranium,
If PDN bids for VUL around current prices thats $120m for its 50% interests in Valhalla and Skal projects, how many lb's uranium are we talking there? I can't remember but its only 50% interest anyway, an EV of say $2.50-$3 a lb is the max I would expect from this bid.


Back to your question directly, I'd say punt VUL, as there may be a chance SMM bidding for it to gain 100% control, still just what the doctor ordered for a Uranium upswing
 
And more articles supporting my Bull Run 2 thoughts







Uranium fever sends warm glow across the sector
Email Print Normal font Large font Barry Fitzgerald
July 10, 2006
Page 1 of 2 | Single page
GARIMPEIRO

STAND by for a second bull run in local uranium exploration/development stocks ”” one driven by a frenzy of merger and acquisition activity.
The second bull run is just starting to take shape and already it has emerged that there is likely to be three key playmakers ”” Canadian/Australian Mega Uranium, John Borshoff's Paladin and Toro Energy.

They are the ones with the fancy market capitalisations that can make things happen through scrip takeover bids for their smaller brethren.

Their fancy share prices also allow them to tap, at will, the market for equity funding when the right deal comes along.

It was the first bull run in uranium stocks that gave those groups their firepower. It ran out of puff in March after 15 months on the go, with the subsequent repricing of uranium equities at lower levels in April-June setting the scene for the launch of the second, and merger-and-acquisition-driven, bull run.

The first bull run was a response to the growing acceptance that nuclear power has a key role to play in the response to global warming.

Spot uranium prices have responded to the looming surge in demand ”” as well as the fact that current annual consumption outstrips mine supply ”” by advancing steadily and are now more than $US45 a pound.

That compares with the sub-$US10 a pound level of a couple of years back. It's no wonder then that with Australia's known prospectivity for the radioactive material, uranium exploration/development is now the prime focus of no less than 80 listed companies.

The explosion of uranium explorers means that the sector is ripe for some consolidation, with the aim being to achieve some bulkiness, as well as project and country-risk diversity.

Attaining that magical mix could deliver big rewards for those that can pull it off, as the issue of global warming is not about to go away in a hurry.

Evidence that the second bull run is starting to take shape is coming in thick and fast.

Mega kicked it off in January with its $20 million acquisition of South Australian uranium explorer Hindmarsh Resources in a scrip-only takeover bid.

The agreed bid marked the return to the Australian uranium industry of Tony Grey, the Sydney-based Canadian lawyer who founded Pancontinental Mining, of Jabiluka fame, in the early 1970s.

Mega, which has the Ben Lomond and Maureen deposits in uranium-unfriendly Queensland under its belt, is now back for another acquisition.

This time it is a friendly bid worth $98 million for West Australian uranium explorer and royalty holder Redport Ltd.

Redport's royalty is over Paladin's Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, where mining is about to start. As an aside, it was interesting to see that Paladin went into a trading halt on Friday as it is "negotiating a potentially material transaction".

Also on Friday, Valhalla Uranium, the Queensland and Northern Territory uranium explorer 83 per cent owned by Resolute Mining, went into a trading halt pending an announcement. We will know soon enough if the two trading halts are related.

Further evidence that M&A activity in the uranium sector is on the boil came last week with a $34 million bid for SA uranium explorer Marathon Resources from Hong Kong-based investment bank Crosby Capital.

Unlike the other bids in the sector, it is not friendly. It also differs on the count that it's a cash offer of 68 ¢ a share.

Missing in action so far is Toro, the Oxiana and Minotaur sponsored float that listed with a bang in March, but which quickly drifted back in price.

Toro rose 11.5 ¢ to 69 ¢ on Friday. It has put out some encouraging exploration results but the real reason for the share price running has been put down to Toro's expected lead role in the sector's M&A activity.

It's all well and good to have a bag of the best exploration ground in SA, but it's better to have a proven resource on the books. Expectations of more M&A action in the uranium sector helped on Friday nearly all the junior explorers that might benefit in the long run.

Some of the gains included Arafura (up 2 ¢ to 37 ¢), Giralia (up 1.5 ¢ to 30 ¢), Deep Yellow (up 1.5 ¢ to 15 ¢) and Summit (up 19 ¢ to $1.44).
 
SMM's mkt cap is approx $300m, ($1.60x 190m shares)

So I would expect a bit of a bidding war for SMM given it holds the other 50% of SMM's assets,

ie if SMM is capped at $300m for the same 50% of assets that VUL holds, then VUL is worth at least $250m to SMM if not more,



Also there's some conference on today

Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Conference on “Australia’s Uranium”
 
BMN looks set to go with a tenement surrounding PDNs operations in Namibia as well as another next to RIO, early information looks promising. Drilling is planned for August from what I remember. There's also a tenement in Botswana though it's not as important as the first two.
 
Redport's uranium draws bid
Robin Bromby, Takeovers
July 08, 2006
THERE goes the junior uranium sector.
A third explorer is now in the sights of a predator with Redport yesterday recommending that shareholders accept a paper offer valued at 14c a share from Canada's Mega Uranium.

Redport's share price managed to reach only 13.5c yesterday but was a considerable improvement on its drop to 9.4c in May.

Redport chairman Richard Homsany said Mega's offer represented a 33 per cent premium to his company's recent share price.

This merger would fulfil Redport's objective of becoming an international uranium company, he added.

Mega earlier this year paid just under $20 million for Hindmarsh Resources, which had a large number of tenements in South Australia.

On Thursday, Hong Kong investment bank Crosby Capital Partners made a 68c-a-share bid for another South Australian explorer, Marathon Resources. This bid, however, is unlikely to succeed as it seems to be pitched too cheaply and because the directors, who own 22.8 per cent, say they won't sell.

The effective takeover of Redport adds a new dimension to the inevitable consolidation of the industry: most of its prospects are in Western Australia, where the state Government has banned uranium mining.

Only South Australia and the Northern Territory are sympathetic to the industry.

This indicates that the Canadians are prepared to take the long view and expect that state government policies on uranium will eventually change.

But investors are also taking the hint that this is not the full extent of Mega's ambitions.

They yesterday marked up Nova Energy, which has uranium prospects in the same region of Western Australia, from 15c to $1.39. It is understood that Redport at one stage contemplated a merger with Nova.

The new takeovers will be a tonic for the junior uranium sector, where prices have come off substantially after the bull run for many companies in the first months of 2006.

Toro Energy, for example, hit $1.395 in March but closed yesterday at 69.5c. Nova itself is well off its $1.85 high on March 4.

Mega, which is capitalised at about $440 million, holds the advanced Ben Lomond project in Queensland with its 4850-tonne resource along with properties in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Mega also has prospects in Argentina, Bolivia and Mongolia. It is offering 10 Mega shares for every 574 Redport counters, along with 10 shares for every 894 Redport 5c listed options and 10 shares for every 1479 unlisted 12c options.

Redport's main asset is its Lake Maitland project, where it has made good grade intercepts. The deposit is shallow, meaning a low stripping ratio. A resource statement is due by late September.

Earlier this year, Redport acquired adjacent ground from View Resources, adding an estimated 996 tonnes of uranium.
 
Its interesting to note PDN's $174m bid for VUL is to get access to

Measured + Indicated Resource of 14.2m lbs U
+
Inferred Resource of 4m lbs U

So Measured + Indicated + Inferred = 18.2 m lbs U

Not to mention a whole lot of potential exploration upside!

But $174m for 18.2 m lbs U = EV of $9.50 per lb

Even given that 80% of it is in the Measured and Indicated, I find this an amazing bid as 99% of the resource is located in Qld, one of the worst places to be,

Given that they are prepared to pay so much for assets in Qld, surely they will pay handsomely (ie premium) for assets in S.A. + N.T. and even more so globally

For example, OMC's 11m lb deposit would be worth at least $15lb (based on a 50% premium to their VUL EV Bid of $9.50/$10) = $150m or $1+ OMC


There are a whole bunch of others in S.A. AGS, PNN, MTN with JORC deposits


I am very curious as to how this merger and t/o period will unfold, especially with MTN, I will be speechless if one of the majors, Teck, Mega, Lara, ERA, BHP, RIO, PDN don't make a counter bid
 
Hey thanks Noi,

Guys you have to search for the articl under UK,

here's a snippet


Nuclear power plants get go-ahead

Nuclear power to make "significant contribution"
The go-ahead has been given for a new wave of UK nuclear power stations.
Industry secretary Alistair Darling told MPs nuclear power needed to be part of the mix of energy supply for the UK over the next 40 years.

The Conservatives say nuclear power should only be a "last resort". The Liberal Democrats accuse ministers of "surrendering" to the nuclear lobby.

Tony Blair says new nuclear power stations will reduce future reliance on imports and help tackle climate change.

READ THE REPORT


Energy review [3.2MB]
Executive summary [131KB]
Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader
Download the reader here

In a Commons statement on the Energy Review, Mr Darling said: "The government has concluded that new nuclear power stations could make a significant contribution to meeting our energy policy goals.

"It would be for the private sector to initiate, fund, construct and operate new nuclear plants and cover the costs of decommissioning and their full share of long term waste management costs."

"Safety and security" would be "paramount" with nuclear plants, he promised.

"Nuclear does mean we can generate electricity without carbon emissions. It does provide a consistency of energy which wind power cannot," he said.

Mr Darling stressed that "a mix of energy supply is essential and we should not be over dependent on one source".

The plans would help meet the government's target of cutting carbon emissions by 60% by 2050, he said.

And they would ensure the UK had secure energy supplies rather than relying increasingly on foreign gas imports.
 
G'day All,

I am a greenhorn in stocks and do not have loads of $$$ nevertheless I would like to invest into Uranium.

What company would you recommend me for short term (< 1 year) and for long term???

Thanx for your views fellows :)
 
Bottom line with the UK is that it is a fine example of how NOT to use natural gas resources.

In short, the UK was almost totally reliant on coal (over 75) and nuclear (most of the rest) for power 20 years ago with a small amount from oil and no significant use of natural gas. Then came the "dash for gas" and the well publicised closue of coal mines and coal-fired power stations.

Fast forward to 2006 and North Sea output of both oil and gas is in serious decline and the UK is faced with near total reliance on imports for oil and gas in the future.

The UK is now stuck with increasingly expensive and unreliable (to say nothing of the potential to use supply as a political weapon) imports to fuel transport (oil), industry (mostly gas and some oil) and home heating (mostly gas).

So it makes a lot of sense to stop using gas for electricity. It would have made more sense (cheaper and avoiding relaiance on imports for non-electricity use) to not use it in the first place, it's too late now that the gas is mostly gone.

Hence the new nuclear plants.

For the record, North America has similar problems with gas (and oil) as does New Zealand although the latter is highly unlikely to go nuclear for practical (grid too small) and political reasons. The US is more reliant on coal (a bit over 50% of electricity) but it too would find it hard to go without new nuclear plants, especially as older facilities are retired.

As for Australia, we're in the midst of ensuring future gas problems by following exactly what the UK and NZ (and to some extent US) have already done with electricity. Every Australian state now depends on gas for electricity to some extent whereas historically we relied on far more abundant coal and renewable hydro-electricity. :2twocents
 
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