UMC once looked soo promising. It has since collapsed into a heap and looks like it may continue to fall further. My Elliott Wave interpretation places the stock in the wave (4) at the moment which is taking the shape of a descending triangle. Normally these take the form of five internal swings, however there is a chance that UMC could just complete three before falling into the wave (5). I have a feeling that this stock will fall hard if the support level at $0.50 is breached. Just one to keep an eye on.
UMC - United Minerals Corporation
- Thread starter JJP
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Hi Lachlan6,
Your Elliott Wave chart picked it very well.
Its been an interesting few months to say the least.
Considering UMC has been one of the hardest hit of the I/O companies, it looks to me that it is about to turn the corner.
Still early days.
Yet, it does look promising.
Now with RIO/BHP falling out of bed together and with the recent interest of AGO-BRM-BCI, i see it as only a matter of time before UMC has a decent run in the sun.
Cheers markcoinoz
Your Elliott Wave chart picked it very well.
Its been an interesting few months to say the least.
Considering UMC has been one of the hardest hit of the I/O companies, it looks to me that it is about to turn the corner.
Still early days.
Yet, it does look promising.
Now with RIO/BHP falling out of bed together and with the recent interest of AGO-BRM-BCI, i see it as only a matter of time before UMC has a decent run in the sun.
Cheers markcoinoz
Five waves look to be complete now to the downside. Therefore the usual three wave corrective bounce scenario looks to be playing out. The first of these in what looks to be a larger wave (A) is now underway. The usual bounce after a five wave decline is shown by the orange and red lines, however this may be a little ambitious. Instead the stock may struggle first to clear the wave 4 of one lesser degree and resistance between $0.80 - $1.00. I would suggest only if the market can gain some real legs that the stock may approach the typical level but for the time being it may be best to focus on this lower target.
Attachments
nothing surer, the resource is A grade
will only be a matter of time before it's exploited
high grade, low impurity, low strip ratio
is economic even with lower iron ore prices expected this year and next
they'll be producing into the shortage in the years following (as a result of so many marginal projects like magnetite being mothballed)
they announced a drill result today 147m @ 61% Fe grade, this is just 200m West of the BHP tenement, highly likely the Railway deposit continues into their land.
This has to be one of the best drill hits ever achieved by a junior iron ore company in Australia.
Railway is open to the east (toward BHP) and then further East of the BHP tenement have been some very promising drill hits at UMC's Railway East target.
Looks like it's one giant deposit that is shared by both UMC and BHP.
This has to be one of the best drill hits ever achieved by a junior iron ore company in Australia.
Railway is open to the east (toward BHP) and then further East of the BHP tenement have been some very promising drill hits at UMC's Railway East target.
Looks like it's one giant deposit that is shared by both UMC and BHP.
Yes, some nice red dirt there alright.
A few of 'my' juniors along with this one, have been busy testing the red dirt too - frs, brm all with updates and some nice grades coming out. I wonder what the future holds for these juniors??High grades, low maitenance, cashed up and a sitting duck for a take over by the big boys....I've loved it from the begining and if they manage to resist a take over they will be a future boomer
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Hi Broadside,
I remember last year when this was first touted that Railway East could be a continuation of the original Railway deposit. Now we are looking at one giant deposit that looks very likely to extend well and truely into BHP's territory.
Bungy from another site posted the O/E report.
Hope the link works.
http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/view.php?id=1158420&da=y
Here is basis of what they have to say.
UMC has announced the assay result for vertical diamond drill hole UI767 - refer to the Company’s announcement of 26th Mar’09 reporting that the drill hole had returned visual iron ore mineralisation of 129m. The assay result returned 148m of continuous high grade Fe mineralisation (61.1% Fe /2.58% Al2O3), including the thickest intersection of bedded Marra Mamba mineralisation intersected at Railway to date (122m at 62% Fe and only 1.88% Al2O3 – refer to Exhibit 1 for further details).
Drill hole UI767 lies towards the centre of the remaining untested zone, ~200m west of the UMC tenement boundary with BHPB Area C, and is part of the ongoing programme to drill out the untested eastern section of the Railway target.
The assay result confirms the trend of thickening high grade bedded Marra Mamba ore past the existing Indicated Resource towards, and potentially into the neighbouring BHPB tenement (Refer Exhibits 1 and 2).
An RC rig has now been deployed to support ongoing diamond drilling within this highly prospective zone to further test mineralisation adjacent to the tenement boundary and extend the target mining zone of the Railway orebody.
Implications
Given Atlas earlier in the week described their drilling results as “outstanding” at its Wodgina target (including 68m @ 60% Fe from surface – refer Exhibit 3 for further details), then it is not surprising to see today’s announcement from UMC described as “tremendous”. The quality and size of the Railway orebody continues to improve and differentiate UMC from its junior peers.
We expect to see the tonnage of UMC’s high grade, low impurity bedded Marra Mamba Indicated Resource (currently 76mt @ 60.2% Fe /2.6% Al2O3) materially expand as further infill and expansion drill results to the east (such as UI767) extend the orebody. The Railway prospect’s current resource footprint is well defined enabling engineering and permitting programmes to be commissioned to progress the project towards production (the Company remains committed to putting the orebody into production by the end of 2010).
While the reported Fe grade and impurities levels of the 148m intersection, and in particular the 122m bedded ore intersection, are already extremely impressive we understand they have been impacted by smaller pockets of shale bands within the ore; if these shale bands were to be taken out (as would be the case when the orebody is mined), the intersection would be even more impressive in terms of grade/impurities, meaning this ore is particularly favourable blending material. The widths and grades/impurity levels included in the orebody, particularly in the eastern section (highlighted in Exhibit 1) indicate significant faulting and structures unlike most Mt Newman Marra Mamba formations.
The current drill programme which is increasing the tonnage of the orebody to the east should, in our opinion, improve the economics of the project and the Company’s ability to negotiate infrastructure access.
As we have previously discussed on a number of occasions we believe the ability of a junior to agree a commercial infrastructure agreement is largely dependent on the grade/blendablity of the deposit and its location relative to infrastructure.
Key Events / Valuation Triggers
Near term news flow is expected to be dominated by the development of the Railway prospect and further exploration drilling results including: results from initial metallurgical test work at Railway; further development of the ongoing engineering and permitting programmes; continued diamond drilling on the untested eastern section of the Railway deposit; results from the new 2009 exploration programme; and ongoing corporate/infrastructure strategy discussions.
Cheers
markcoinoz
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Just over 7mln shares changed hands after the bell in 3 transactions.
The Bots had been at work all day to keep the price around the $1 mark.
Should be interesting on open tomorrow.
Cheers markcoinoz
The Bots had been at work all day to keep the price around the $1 mark.
Should be interesting on open tomorrow.
Cheers markcoinoz
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Seems to have good quantity of IO in the ground, plus the location and transport nearby, and a healthy share price before recession. But is the worst performer of my stocks including other IO and still flat lining. Hard to find much info other than a few company statements. Maybe too early days?
Hold a few myself.IMO they will not show much until they get further down the track and contracts for their product are signed.There seems to be quite a few juniors lining up at the moment.Chinese interest in these juniors seem to give them a boost.
Probably in twelve months we may have a clearer picture.
Probably in twelve months we may have a clearer picture.
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A couple of things bother me about this stock, why is there not more domestic interest if it is such a no brainer, and will they be the ones left by themselves whilst jv's go on around them. Also how much cash will they need to develop this project?
The absence of any news on positive progress is a little off-putting.One has to have faith that the management has a plan.
I only have a small holding and in the absence of any more encouraging news will keep it as a small holding.
Where will they get the money to start production?Either from the shareholders via a capital raising or from a rich JV partner.
With all securities we put our faith in the management.
I only have a small holding and in the absence of any more encouraging news will keep it as a small holding.
Where will they get the money to start production?Either from the shareholders via a capital raising or from a rich JV partner.
With all securities we put our faith in the management.
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Seems like they are doing something, trading halt pending an announcement of "a significant corporate transaction"
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Does anyone have any thoughts on the transaction, looks quite a good deal to me but the stock is still getting smashed. The way I see it the worries about funding are now removed and they have a nice offtake agreement. Short term the problem now looks like port access and transportation, although hopefully they can sort this one out in the next 6 months. Management also seem a bit mickey mouse sometimes, but i guess that's true for the junior mining space.
Hi,
just to answer a couple of points you raised:
Transportation - ore can be trucked to port using road trains. MMX already does/did this. UMC estimates that they can truck 3Mtpa (but no more).
Port Access - they have reserved space at the new port which will be available Q4 2010.
I think longer term, that the chinese railway company may be able to give some assistance to help UMC build its own rail.
Also - if you look at what is happening to other IO juniors in the region - China is starting to debt fund them. FMG gives China a 30% discount to benchmark prices in return for debt funding.
Once the port is expanded, and spur lines have been built for some of these juniors (lets say by 2015) - then china will be less dependent on bhp/rio. I think that with bhp/rio fighting tooth and nail not to share their rail, they may end up being worse off not better off.
Joel
just to answer a couple of points you raised:
Transportation - ore can be trucked to port using road trains. MMX already does/did this. UMC estimates that they can truck 3Mtpa (but no more).
Port Access - they have reserved space at the new port which will be available Q4 2010.
I think longer term, that the chinese railway company may be able to give some assistance to help UMC build its own rail.
Also - if you look at what is happening to other IO juniors in the region - China is starting to debt fund them. FMG gives China a 30% discount to benchmark prices in return for debt funding.
Once the port is expanded, and spur lines have been built for some of these juniors (lets say by 2015) - then china will be less dependent on bhp/rio. I think that with bhp/rio fighting tooth and nail not to share their rail, they may end up being worse off not better off.
Joel
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Rights Issue - 10c per new option will be issued at rate of 1 option per 10 held shares at the Record Date of 25 Sep 09.. Up to 15,5 million new options to raise $1,5 million (AUD). New options exerciseable at $1.35 0n 30 Sep 2011. Closing date 16 Oct 09. The issue is non-renounceable.
I hold UMC shares and still hoping to recover losses from the last 12 months.
I hold UMC shares and still hoping to recover losses from the last 12 months.
It will be interesting to see the prospectus that comes with the options,due early October.
I wish that they had a B pay facility to pay for options,else have to pay for bank cheque...this for only a small amount of options.
If confident may be best to buy more UMC at about a dollar on the market,but that may be premature.
Decisions decisions
I wish that they had a B pay facility to pay for options,else have to pay for bank cheque...this for only a small amount of options.
If confident may be best to buy more UMC at about a dollar on the market,but that may be premature.
Decisions decisions
