Ukraine War

[wayneL]

Is the Ukraine war about to come to a sudden and unexpected end. Reports suggest that the Russian invasion is slowing and low morale within the military. If this is correct we could see a military coup in Russia, with Putin being arrested and held to blame, (Generals:- we were just following orders!). Probably wishful thinking on my part, but if happens will be soon.

Not without precedent:

1. 1762: A coup by Catherine the Great forced the abdication of Peter III of Russia.
2. March 15, 1917: Tsar Nicholas II of Russia is forced to abdicate in favor of the Russian Provisional Government, ending the Russian Empire and the Romanov dynasty.
3. September 1917: Lavr Kornilov attempts to march into Petrograd, dissolve the Petrograd Soviet, and possibly establish a military dictatorship after being appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Army by Alexander Kerensky. The coup failed because of a lack of support and mass resistance, but it eroded the Provisional Government's legitimacy and revived the Bolsheviks.
4. November 7, 1917: The Bolshevik faction of the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party led by Vladimir Lenin overthrows the Russian Provisional Government and forms the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, leading to the Russian Civil War and the formation of the Soviet Union.
5. August 19 to 21, 1991: A group of Soviet Communist Party hardliners form the State Committee on the State of Emergency and attempt to overthrow President Mikhail Gorbachev in order to reverse his reforms; the coup is suppressed by RSFSR President Boris Yeltsin, weakening the Communist Party's authority and accelerating the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
6. September 21 to October 4, 1993: Russian President Boris Yeltsin, aided by the Russian Armed Forces, extralegally dissolves the Supreme Soviet and suspends the constitution in response to impeachment proceedings against him.

Just in case i am right, remember where you read it first.

The old attitude of "ours is not to reason why, ours is just to do or die" seems to be on the wane.

Perhaps we pawns are starting to think "phuk this”

 

[waterbottle]

RE: Price of oil...

Putin Signs Decree To Ban Exports Of Raw Materials, Commodities | OilPrice.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that institutes special economic measures that will be in effect until the end of this year

oilprice.com

Sort of expected with oil, but what about other commodities? Fertilizers to the moon?

 

[Do you feel lucky]

You can't at the moment as their stock exchange is closed and brokers here and in in the USA are presently not allowed trade with Russia.

Some of the bigger gamblers than you and I are buying Russian debt or outstanding loans but it is a nietzeche market.

gg

Ahh.typical. Leave the little guy out and all the bigwigs cleanup on the side ; through cutouts and a web of front companies. Makes you sick.

See how Shell was caught buying oil and now will cough it up for the Ukraine refugees? One rule for the guys at the top , and one rule for the common people.

Thanks for answering.

 

[sptrawler]

The old attitude of "ours is not to reason why, ours is just to do or die" seems to be on the wane.

Perhaps we pawns are starting to think "phuk this”

Wouldn't that be great.

 

[Smurf1976]

Meanwhile in SA

I'm not sure it's worse than actual war but I've heard more than enough to know that things aren't too good there and that what would be seen as a crisis in Australia is considered perfectly normal there.

 

[Smurf1976]

Is the Ukraine war about to come to a sudden and unexpected end.

I certainly hope so but I fear it's the eye of the storm.

There's also the problem that judging by photos in the media etc, the place is already heavily damaged and will take serious effort to fix. Even just things like bridges don't get put back up in week, it's a major task for that alone.

 

[PZ99]

I certainly hope so but I fear it's the eye of the storm.

There's also the problem that judging by photos in the media etc, the place is already heavily damaged and will take serious effort to fix. Even just things like bridges don't get put back up in week, it's a major task for that alone.

However that rebuilding will be good for their economy which has been stuck with increasing unemployment for the last decade or more...

 

[PZ99]

This is the e-real WW3 as far as I'm concerned..

‘Catastrophic’ cyberwar between Ukraine and Russia hasn’t happened (yet), experts say

Experts says both sides may understand that large-scale cyber-attacks will result in ‘mutually assured destruction of systems’

www.theguardian.com

I have all my non discretionary bills paid in advance in case our banking system was ever attacked by terrorist nations such as Chi-ussr... No need to chuck notes under the bed if everything's already paid up front

 

[SirRumpole]

How do anti-tank missiles work, and how helpful might they be for Ukraine's soldiers?​

How Ukraine is using a powerful weapon that is too difficult for Russians to detect

Anti-tank missiles, which can be fired by a single person, seem to be effective against Russia's fleet of invading main battle tanks, writes James Dwyer.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wayneL]

FYI only and in no way should anyone impute what my thoughts are.

 

[StockyGuy]

Uploaded yesterday and already over 586k views on YT. Asking young Russians their view of the big (little) guy, receiving essentially, utterly, negative opinions of him. Some put it rather neutrally, as you'd expect of people living under a brutal regime.

 

[moXJO]

Posted this in another thread. From 6 years ago. Some spot on predictions and interesting perspectives.

 

[moXJO]

America tried to deny bio labs in Ukraine. It appears they lied about it and do in fact have them there. The misinformation out there and coming from officials mouths is breathtaking.

 

[Sean K]

We're getting close to the end of this invasion, IMO. Once Kiev is surrounded, it will be a siege and Russia can wait it out with their logistic trail back to Russia kicking in and Kiev locked out of international support. Unless the West create a corridor to the SW for aid and equipment resupply. But, that will take air and ground support to get it through, so maybe unlikely.

Russia have completely miscalculated on this misadventure, including the value of hand held anti-tank missiles and the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The statements of the Russian representative at the UN today is laughable.

My initial assessment of this was that Russia just wants the eastern side of Ukraine from Kharkiv down to Odessa and have total control of the north Black Sea coast line. Once they negotiate that as part of a cease fire, it might stop. I just doubt Ukraine will give it up.

 

[waterbottle]

We're getting close to the end of this invasion, IMO. Once Kiev is surrounded, it will be a siege and Russia can wait it out with their logistic trail back to Russia kicking in and Kiev locked out of international support. Unless the West create a corridor to the SW for aid and equipment resupply. But, that will take air and ground support to get it through, so maybe unlikely.

Russia have completely miscalculated on this misadventure, including the value of hand held anti-tank missiles and the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The statements of the Russian representative at the UN today is laughable.

My initial assessment of this was that Russia just wants the eastern side of Ukraine from Kharkiv down to Odessa and have total control of the north Black Sea coast line. Once they negotiate that as part of a cease fire, it might stop. I just doubt Ukraine will give it up.

View attachment 138951

If Kiev falls then all of Ukraine will fall. It's hard to imagine them keep reserves in other less important parts of the country than the capital.

Not too sure what people expected out of Russia.
This is modern warfare against a modernised military with the logistics of the entire Western advanced militarised behind them. The last time there was a war at this level was literally WW2 Germany v. Britain.

If the country falls in less than a month then that's a major success for the Russians.

 

[basilio]

Who are the soldiers behind the ICBM.s that represent the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) policies of the US/Russia.

Very sobering insight into the people who will effectively end life on earth if WW3 breaks out in earnest.

I was a nuclear missile operator. There have been more near-misses than the world knows | Cole Smith

As a 22-year-old I controlled a warhead that could vaporize a metropolis. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the public is waking up again to the existential dangers of nuclear weapons

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sean K]

If Kiev falls then all of Ukraine will fall. It's hard to imagine them keep reserves in other less important parts of the country than the capital.

Not too sure what people expected out of Russia.
This is modern warfare against a modernised military with the logistics of the entire Western advanced militarised behind them. The last time there was a war at this level was literally WW2 Germany v. Britain.

If the country falls in less than a month then that's a major success for the Russians.

Most probably.

There's no significant enough justification for Russia to invade a sovereign nation and kill innocent civilians and destroy billions in infrastructure. These are war crimes.

The Ukraine leader speaks like he's not going to give in at all. So, they might become a 'government in exile'. I can't believe the western side of 'ethic Ukrainians' is going to give in. They significantly voted against pro-Russia at the last election.

The turning point in WW2 was the USA being forced into it, in both Europe and the Pacific. Let's hope there's no tipping point here.

 

[Value Collector]

Most probably.

There's no significant enough justification for Russia to invade a sovereign nation and kill innocent civilians and destroy billions in infrastructure. These are war crimes.

The Ukraine leader speaks like he's not going to give in at all. So, they might become a 'government in exile'. I can't believe the western side of 'ethic Ukrainians' is going to give in. They significantly voted against pro-Russia at the last election.

The turning point in WW2 was the USA being forced into it, in both Europe and the Pacific. Let's hope there's no tipping point here.

There is a chance it could evolve into a long term Partisan / insurgency, not that I hope for that, I think Russian would begin targeting innocent civilians even more then.

But I can’t see the Ukrainian people accepting occupation by Russia, and if a Rebel group armed with modern weapons can continue a fight, it will be very expensive for Russia the longer they stay.

I think Putin needs to save face, so eventually it has to get to a point where he can claim some sort of victory politically and then he will probably back off, but only time will tell.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

.... What there isn't here in Kharkiv, is any surprise at the Russian attack. "Since 2014 we knew they would come, maybe in a year, 10 years, or 1,000 years, but we knew they would come"....

Ukraine war: On the front line of the battle for Kharkiv

Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian forces fighting to stop the Russian advance on the country's second city.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sean K]

There is a chance it could evolve into a long term Partisan / insurgency, not that I hope for that, I think Russian would begin targeting innocent civilians even more then.

But I can’t see the Ukrainian people accepting occupation by Russia, and if a Rebel group armed with modern weapons can continue a fight, it will be very expensive for Russia the longer they stay.

I think Putin needs to save face, so eventually it has to get to a point where he can claim some sort of victory politically and then he will probably back off, but only time will tell.

Yes, that will most likely be the case, but will result in Ukraine just keeping the left hand side of their county. Vlad has gone all in on this one. Anything less than taking the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine will be failure, IMO.