TYX - Tyranna Resources

[condog]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Vindicated Ann out re estimated costs of $51/t.

They have CONSERVATIVELY used the benchmark price for their estimates of potential margins, but even so we are looking at $28/t margin

So by year end IFE could be raking in $56m a year - not bad seeing as that is their current entire MC!

If they get spot prices, that could double, which is what their SP should be doing (at least)!!

This is an exciting prospect for the tiny IFE and TRF whi has 50% owernship plus 20% of whichery hill...

So technically IFE will retain 40% of revenue from Witchery and TRF will obtain 60% roughly...

IFE sp was only 35c or so when Witchary became known to the market and it is now 1.27 or so. So the witchery project has been somewhat priced in already now....

Calcs from a different perspective would be 40% of 56M = 22M additional revenue / 40M shares = 55c net earnings per share..... this still got to do bank feasability , so still some risk..... if it proceeds its dirt cheap....if it doesnt its dog dear..... so probably in the ball park at present.....

Once its decides to proceed shorly we would expect a substantial sp rise...

Its a classic risk reward punt.....

Safer to go with TRF which has good exposure but also has plenty of other plays...IMO

TRF has a market cap of $65M so its not much bigger, will get a bigger chunk of the revenue if this proceeds, plus has its other projects...

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

This is an exciting prospect for the tiny IFE and TRF whi has 50% owernship plus 20% of whichery hill...

So technically IFE will retain 40% of revenue from Witchery and TRF will obtain 60% roughly...IFE sp was only 35c or so when Witchary became known to the market and it is now 1.27 or so. So the witchery project has been somewhat priced in already now....

Calcs from a different perspective would be 40% of 56M = 22M additional revenue / 40M shares = 55c net earnings per share..... this still got to do bank feasability , so still some risk..... if it proceeds its dirt cheap....if it doesnt its dog dear..... so probably in the ball park at present.....

Uh uh Condog, TRF own 50% of IFE and 20% of Wilcherry, so IFE will get 80% of Wilcherry income, but TRF will benefit by the respective increase in value of IFE.

Thus 80% of $56m which is $44m/40m = $1.10 per share.

A VERY attractive prospect IMO and I'm loading up

 

[condog]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Uh uh Condog, TRF own 50% of IFE and 20% of Wilcherry, so IFE will get 80% of Wilcherry income, but TRF will benefit by the respective increase in value of IFE.

Thus 80% of $56m which is $44m/40m = $1.10 per share.

A VERY attractive prospect IMO and I'm loading up

Hmm yours is true if they get to retain 100% of earnings.... if however they are forced to pay earnings, then mine is true.... lets meet halfway.... Its a matter of definition.....

One way or the other TRF stand to IMO possibly gain significnatly from IFE, where as IFE may gain significantly and is relient on this project....

Im not saying its not a good investment, just comparing the two...

 

[Sa Farmer]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Just thought I would post this information on their web site, they have interesting information, video ect. This stock could be a little gem with the cheap costs on a premium product and a mine that could be starting by years end.

 

[Miner]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

IFE AND MAU followers

Did you find any thing interesting in a recent report in a prominent newsletter about IFE and MAU with the holding by TRF ?

I read it but can not discuss due to copyright reasons.

I did not see any reflection in market however which normally happens with such speculative report .

Any way I will wait to see what others are saying.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Have been continuing to hold and watch this. With 1MTpa locked in (at hopefully near spot prices?) this has GOT to do some major rerating over the course of the year IMO.

Current MC of $57m

Potential income assuming they get a price of $100/t

2MTpa x $45 = $90m x 80% (TRF hold 20%)
= $72m.

Now you can't tell me that doesn't look good

IFF production happens this year and IO price holds up, I predict IFE will sit somewhere between $200-$300m MC by years end Hang on, I think I;ve just convinced myself to buy more

 

[Sean K]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Current MC of $57m

Potential income assuming they get a price of $100/t

2MTpa x $45 = $90m x 80% (TRF hold 20%)
= $72m.

jono, is that $72m before royalties and tax and any other little cost after the basic Opex - Sales number crunch? Is your $100/t spot and they are going to sell into spot or are they going to have to forward contract at a bit lower? Any debt to pay off? I haven't read through much of the thread, just checking.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

jono, is that $72m before royalties and tax and any other little cost after the basic Opex - Sales number crunch? Is your $100/t spot and they are going to sell into spot or are they going to have to forward contract at a bit lower? Any debt to pay off? I haven't read through much of the thread, just checking.

Yep before tax etc. I assumed current spot of $125 and benchmark of $60 and took something closer to spot, especially given current talk of big 3 ditching the benchmark system!

NO DEBT which is a biggie, so assume royalties of say 3% revenue and 30% tax and we get down to more like $50m. Still looks attractively price at the mo and if we apply a conservative PE of 5 values them in the middle of my range.

 

[matty77]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

too late to hop onto this stock?

does the price already reflect future production of the iron ore?

(yes that is probably a stupid question...)

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

too late to hop onto this stock?

does the price already reflect future production of the iron ore?

(yes that is probably a stupid question...)

While it's always important to DYOR, if you scan back over the last couple of pages, you'll see that IMO the current SP is approx 1/4 of the price I believe reflects fair value IF/WHEN IFE get 2Mtpa trucking out.

Based on their projected cash cost of $55/t and assuming they get $85 (looks likely given push by big 3 for near spot pricing for the year ahead), they will be making $50m net a year (take out 20% for TRF). That is almost their current MC, so it seems HIGHLY unlikely that Mr Market will accept that ratio. An appropriate ratio might be 4x earnings, which implies a 4x SP.

All based on current situation though which could change rapidly, given the way the world is!!

 

[cornnfedd]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

thanks for your reply, appreciated.



ill take a closer look at this stock i think.

thanks again.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Just a quick heads up on this one - definitely seems undervalued given they will be producing at least 1MTpa @ $40-50 minimum cash margin next year and their MC is currently $50m.

Don't hold but probably will...

http://brr.com.au/event/72376

The presentation details are as follows:
● Intersuisse rate IFE a BUY with NPV of $2.14 - Mr Pieter Bruinstroop, Analyst at Intersuisse
● Presented by Mr Pieter Bruinstroop, Analyst at Intersuisse

 

[skc]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Just a quick heads up on this one - definitely seems undervalued given they will be producing at least 1MTpa @ $40-50 minimum cash margin next year and their MC is currently $50m.

Don't hold but probably will...

http://brr.com.au/event/72376

The presentation details are as follows:
● Intersuisse rate IFE a BUY with NPV of $2.14 - Mr Pieter Bruinstroop, Analyst at Intersuisse
● Presented by Mr Pieter Bruinstroop, Analyst at Intersuisse

IFE is 50% owned by TRF. So if you are consider buying IFE you should look at TRF which is trading at a discount to its holding in IFE + others. DYOR

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Adding to what SKC has said, TRF also gets a free carried 20% holding in Wilcherry hill (the short term production, longer term is the Hercules deposit) so potentially TRF should benefit more from Willcherry than IFE. Do the sums yourself and you'll see that TRF is the one to buy if you want exposure to IFE (You also get some free cash and a free project, as well as some ROH shares to thank you for your time).

 

[YELNATS]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

Adding to what SKC has said, TRF also gets a free carried 20% holding in Wilcherry hill (the short term production, longer term is the Hercules deposit) so potentially TRF should benefit more from Willcherry than IFE. Do the sums yourself and you'll see that TRF is the one to buy if you want exposure to IFE (You also get some free cash and a free project, as well as some ROH shares to thank you for your time).

Yes, thank you PVF, based on your previous analysis advised on ASF and in your blog after some consideration I took a position in TRF a few weeks ago. Plus have picked them in this month's tipping competition. They haven't moved much yet, but I would think it's just a matter of time.

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

RE: YELNATS, if the numbers add up it usually just takes time till value is realised. What convinced me to buy was the fact that not only do you get the arbitrage between the TRF price and book value, the assets that make up TRF's book value are undervalued, so you get a double whammy effect when the assets get priced more accurately (when that will happen I do not know, perhaps closer to production). One thing I always keep in mind is how fast and almost violently MHM rerated this year, this highlights to me that 80% of the time nothing happens in underrated shares, but you've got to be in them 100% of the time to catch that 20% in which prices change very rapidly.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

RE: YELNATS, if the numbers add up it usually just takes time till value is realised. What convinced me to buy was the fact that not only do you get the arbitrage between the TRF price and book value, the assets that make up TRF's book value are undervalued, so you get a double whammy effect when the assets get priced more accurately (when that will happen I do not know, perhaps closer to production). One thing I always keep in mind is how fast and almost violently MHM rerated this year, this highlights to me that 80% of the time nothing happens in underrated shares, but you've got to be in them 100% of the time to catch that 20% in which prices change very rapidly.

Aaaaaaarrrrrrgggghhhhhh, you had to mention MHM didn't you!!! My wife was out about three weeks before they took off after holding at 28c for about 9 months!!!

 

[joea]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

I have IFE on a specific watchlist, and I think it maybe starting to come out of its sleep.
Cheers

 

[bigricho]

ife iron clad mining

Hi would any one like to comment on iron clad mining.
They look good if you listen to their MD Ian Finch.
However I am unsure of their ability to start shipping iron ore by years end as he has stated. They have not even started to develop the mine site yet.
However there seem to be some things in their favor like grade of ore and "cheap" start up expenses.
I am interested in any-one elses opinion.

Thanks:

 

[kermit345]

Re: IFE - IronClad Mining

bigricho, to my knowledge their mine site will need very little development work done on it to get it at the stage where production/shipping can start.

The sell depth on IFE is very thin as it is a tightly held register and I believe that there are only 3 things holding the share price back at the moment. Once these three points are completed/finalised then I expect the SP to start moving. That will be the initial movement, and then if/once production starts and that first cheque comes in, the major re-rating will occur.

The three points to finalise are as follows:

- Capital Raising (currently in progress and almost finalised)
- Rail/Port Access contracts (sounds like almost completed - Ian has been in talks with these facility operators for quite some time)
- Mining Application Approval (expected in august/september)

I suspect once mining approval is reached, development will start at mine site through oct/nov and first shipment late dec/jan. If everything flows through that timeline with no major issues, then the share price has every opportunity and the potential to be well above today's current price.

Just need to look at first year production. Lets say they achieve a margin of $45 on 1mt of ore, thats $45mill revenue. Let's say you take off 40% for costs/royalties/tax which gives $27 mill, then take off 20% which goes to TRF - which leaves $21.6mill.

You have a current market cap of $45mill, so they are earning profit at half their market cap... and thats only in the 1million tonnes ramp up year. Thats expected to double to 2 million tonnes in year 2.

Lets say they traded at a P/E of VERY conservatively 8 once in production. In ramp up thats a market cap of approx $172.8 mill or almost 4 times current market cap, and thats in ramp up.

Definitely do your own research and it is by no means a sealed deal at the moment, but the potential is hard to ignore.