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TWE - Treasury Wine Estates

Old news that it was going to happen, but good to hear it's now occurred.
While TWE did get a rise out of the rumour, I don't see a sell the news event.
Could be ripe for a further run up from here.
Daily then monthly chart.

 
Rumour of a split has increased.

Treasury Wine CEO Tim Ford said that bringing the function together with premium brands would unlock future opportunities for the strong consumer brands within the premium business.

 
Rumour of a split has increased.

Treasury Wine CEO Tim Ford said that bringing the function together with premium brands would unlock future opportunities for the strong consumer brands within the premium business.
cheers

will try to remember to keep track of the outcast ( that is where i normally make a profit )
 
Market Matters afternoon report:

Treasury Wines (TWE) $12.35
TWE +2%: Solid result for TWE, pretty much inline with expectations with their US business outperforming.
  • Revenue $2.81 billion, +13% y/y, vs estimate of $2.78 billion
  • Earnings per share of $0.523 vs. consensus of $0.52
  • Ebits $658.1 million, +13% y/y, compared to consensus of $659.9 million
  • Margins solid at 24% in line with expectations
  • Penfolds earnings of $421.3 million, up +16% y/y
  • Final dividend per share $0.19 vs. $0.17 y/y
TWE guidance for FY25 of Ebits $780 million to $810 million was solid, however, consensus was already at $806m, hence no positive SP catalyst.
TWE
MM remains long & bullish TWE
Treasury Wines (TWE)
15/08/2024​
 
Good morning published today (22/10/24) via New Corp media outlets (Journalist - Valerina Changarathil)

The volume and value of Australian wine exports to China have surged after the removal of import duties in late March, according to a new Wine Australia export report, but it’s too early to celebrate.
In the 12 months ended September, overall Australian wine exports increased by 34 per cent in value to $2.39bn and by 7 per cent in volume to 643 million litres. The value of shipments to mainland China increased by $604m to $612m, while volume increased by 58 million litres to 59 million litres.
“These are the highest levels of shipments by both volume and value since the 12 months ended August 2021, and the growth was driven by the re-entry of Australian wine exports to mainland China…,” the report states.
Of the 927 businesses exporting Australian wine to mainland China during the 12 months ended September 2024, the top ten exporters by value contributed 68 per cent of the total value and 38 per cent of total volume.
“While the export figures to mainland China are very positive, the impact on total export value is much larger than volume due to the premium price point of most wine entering the market,” said Peter Bailey, Wine Australia’s manager of market insights.
“It’s important to note that shipments in these first six months are likely to be characteristic of re-stocking Australian wine after a long absence,” he cautioned. “Export levels are not equivalent to retail figures, and it will take time before it is evident how Chinese consumers are reacting to having Australian wine back in market.”

Kind regards
rcw1
 
I hope this ends well. First TWE use Penfolds to set up high quality Chinese wine production, ensuring part ownership and increased sales.

GM Holden did the same thing with Daewoo, which worked well for Holden for several years. Until Daewoo went bankrupt, leaving Holden in a bad place. Holden had invested in an engine plant that could not survive without sales to Daewoo, and Holden needed Daewoo's small cars to re-badge as holdens. Holden had no choice but to buy Daewoo.

Is TWE buying a Chinese winery to expand, or because the Chinese company is bankrupt? Either way, let's hope Penfolds and TWE management are ready and willing to go all the way and produce a magnificent Australian icon in China.


 
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