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TWE - Treasury Wine Estates

News that the Chinese tariffs on wine may be dropped soon.
There's a fear that market will never be the same.
..... and besides, it was all BS wolf warrior stuff. they'll do it again
 
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News that the Chinese tariffs on wine may be dropped soon.
Anthony Albanese scheduled to travel to China from Nov. 4 to 7 to meet with President Xi Jinping & Premier Li Qiang in a bid to stabilise trade relations and discuss potential removal of Chinese tariffs on wine.
 
Anthony Albanese scheduled to travel to China from Nov. 4 to 7 to meet with President Xi Jinping & Premier Li Qiang in a bid to stabilise trade relations and discuss potential removal of Chinese tariffs on wine.
Heard one of his ministers today arguing this strongly and being very critical of China. The Albanese government has been slowly winning. Lobsters also are a problem.

I think as long as Australia doesn't act like the USA's deputy and be the head critisciser of China we will be OK.

They don't expect us to be wimps but also not to be the country leading an attack since we have such a trade imbalance with them that makes us wealthy.
 
To remove the restrictions on Australian wine Australia has had to strike the same deal it did to get the restrictions on barley lifted early this year and withdraw its appeal to the World Trade Organisation, in return for an “expedited review” that will take around five months.

This arrangement spares China the embarrassment of an adverse ruling by the WTO umpire for breaching the global trade rules that have underpinned the "China success story" over the past two decades, of export- led growth.

all about saving face.
 

Australia Reaches A Wine Deal With China​

Australia and China have agreed to suspend the dispute on wine at the World Trade Organisation, pending the outcome of a review on wine tariffs. Here are the key takeaways from Prime Minister Albanese:

  • Since the successful removal of duties on Australian barley, we have engaged actively to secure a similar process to resolve our WTO wine dispute with China
  • We have now reached an agreement with China to move forward to resolve this dispute
  • We welcome China's agreement to undertake an expedited review of its duties
  • This process is expected to take five months
  • If the duties are not removed at the end of the review, Australia will resume the dispute in the WTO
 
Goes to show that it is easy to stuff up, doesn't matter how much money you have and how many legal advisors.

The Penfolds winemaker has been accused of knowingly producing its Dracula-themed wine even though someone else owned the trademark, but relied upon its market power and resources to pay attorneys to “fight this out in court while they cash in unlawfully” on the wine.

 
an interesting question

given TWE is facing a restrictive Chinese market and an illusionary US/EU economy maybe they are hedging their bets are trying to grab extra local ( OZ and NZ ) market share

the other logical explanation is they have had a few good growing years and are trying to reduce inventory ( maybe free up cash for an acquisition or just cut storage costs )

( i do not hold this share , the numbers never crunched attractively for me )
 

a total failure in research by missing it was the side hustle of a US lawyer , he stands to make almost as much from a successful court case as he would from normal seasonal sales

but hey this happens all the time in business ( in corporations big and small )
 
TWE had been detected in personal scans for a potential bullish move recently with a bounce off support levels established towards the end of November at the $10.21 level. This company has recently undergone a capital raising which resulted in a fairly significant decline in the share price, as you can see in the chart below. As can also be seen, the DMI appears to be expressing decreasing bearish tendencies whilst the RSI is increasing in strength.

Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the support level from the open of 18th January (i.e.: below $10.14),
(ii) below the support level from the open of 12th January (i.e.: below $10.08), or
(iii) below the recent lows of the channel from the 10th January (i.e.: below $9.98), depending on risk tolerance.



Initial discussion of trade:

Latest discussion of trade:
 

I’ve been enjoying some very low priced Penfolds for the past 12 months. And the price keeps going down. Two weeks ago I received a call from Penfolds with a price drop I couldn’t refuse.
 
Europe & US sales down, and an increase in parts of Asia.

It was a similar story in North America, where in the US and Canada wine exports slumped 7 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. However, Asia provided a ray of hope for Australian winemakers where sales in Hong Kong boomed, up by 74 per cent in terms of value, while sales into Singapore were up by 1 per cent.

I think I’m going to be buying some more discount wine.

 
Expected positive announcement by China expected March.
Apparently.

View attachment 170151

I hope you are correct, I have a soft spot for TWE, and Australia’s wine industry. But I’m not sure that things will ever get back to pre Covid norms.

Treasury Wine Estates launches first China-sourced wine in prestigious Penfolds Collection​

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) cemented its long-term commitment to China’s wine industry with the launch of its first China-sourced wine in the prestigious 2023 Penfolds Collection: the Chinese Winemaking Trial (CWT) 521.​



Wine has been produced in China since the Han dynasty (206 BC–220 AD). Thanks to its immense territory and favorable climates, China is the largest grape producer worldwide, contributing to more than half of the world’s grape production. When it comes to viticulture, it also has the third-largest vineyard area worldwide. For a long time, wine was seen as a symbol of social status and luxury in China. Nowadays, an increasing number of Chinese started to welcome grape wine as a “healthy drink” and enjoy it regularly in their daily life.
 
My cellar is almost full, but I can still squeeze in a few more cases of premium wines at discounted prices for a while longer. China is the great unknown.

 
Is the timing coming up for the big guys to start buying up the smaller companies? Maybe, but that's not going to sort out the problems off too much stock and too few customers.

Treasury has a number of assets that are non core, and if it can split those from the stronger performing part of the business you could merge the rump of Treasury with other wine assets on the market. Pernod Ricard also has assets for sale in Australia that could form part of the equation.
While many are pinning their hopes on the reopening of the Australian wine market to China in March, many believe this is overbaked.


 
Good morning
Published via New Corp media today (13/03/24):

The Australian wine industry is one step closer to reclaiming access to the China market and more than $1bn in annual sales after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce released an interim draft determination that proposed a lifting of crippling tariffs on Australian wine imports.

The largest exporter of Australian wine, ASX-listed Treasury Wine Estates, whose labels include Penfolds, Pepperjack and Wolf Blass, said on Tuesday night it had been advised of the draft determination.

It noted it was not a final determination and was “subject to change” by the ministry.

China introduced tariffs of up to 200 per cent on imports of Australian wine in 2021, a move widely seen as part of a range of trade sanctions against Australia in the wake of political tensions with the Morrison government.

The tariffs decimated the $1.2bn wine trade to China and forced many winemakers to look elsewhere as the largest global market was shut down.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

It will take a decade to trust China again.

The biggest positive for TWE is that they have kept a foot in the market by exporting their products from Europe and the UAS into China, as well as helping China develop their own wine industry while setting up and distributing a China Penfolds Vinyard and winery.
 
would still help twe tremendously so I expect a share jump..until the next drama
 
Cheap wine, anyone?

China might take some off your hands. Guaranteed.

"A decision on whether China will lift the tariffs it imposed on Australian wine in 2021 is expected within days, after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce last week released a draft recommendation to remove the tariffs."

Paul Keating will put in a good word to his Chinese political mates ;-)

 
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