Turning 5,000 dollars into 50,000 dollars

[mildew79]

Aha! Barney's thinking like a trader.


A couple of points for Insider to ponder on;

1. Insider, you said "Remember it's just for fun"
I say: You only say that because you believe you can't lose. Yes, it's just for fun...so long as you're winning. When you're losing, you won't find it fun any more.

2. Don't confuse success in an irrationally exuberant Uranium bull market with trading skill. Irrational exuberance only comes along once in a while and doesn't last very long. Trading skill allows you to survive all the time.

totally agree. a succesful trader is one who consistently outperforms the market in any conditions! your comments are reming me of someone i know......

 

[mildew79]

Personally I'd hold for a few reasons... I bought them at 1.005 and remember you only make or lose money when you sell... Another reason is that I'm expecting some drilling results to come out, infact I think they're almost over due... Might be a good follow up to their most recent announcement... fingers crossed. But essentially I trade stocks however I invest time in them and sell them at a price that I'm happy with and that I don't believe is greedy... I'd be more than happy to sell MTN right now but I'm confident in this one... There are just so many good reasons to hold a uranium stock and they're exactly the same as one year ago... One word potential... they have so much potential.

For me stop losses would only come in if the drops were quick and sudden... then I'd watch the buyers and sellers list closely and ask alot of questions like whose selling and why are they selling. etc. For example I bought DYL and sold at 27.5 cents on the open morning trade... I thought to myself there are going to be people that wanted the action from the day before so they will cause the price to fluctuate upwards at opening. I was right and then price closed at 26 cents... but all this after a 25% rise... I was expecting people to cash in and then they did the next day... Guess who the sellers usually are that drive the price to it's lowest before it goes back up a couple days later... The ones that either feel like they're losing their profits or the ones that bought high... I put an order for 23 cents but missed out by 1/2 a cent... then DYL hit 48 cents.... However the theory was all there and I could have made more cash cut the moral to the story is... " always ask questions" because you'll end like the guy who paid 27.5 cents and sold at 23.5 cents.

Not sure if that answered your question but I've been awake now for 41 hours straight... I need sleep

you say "remember you only make or lose money when you sell". be careful of this approach insider. you shall find yourself holding a stock through the floor. your worth is the value of assets at the time in question!!

best of luck in your quest. if you were ever going to do it this is the market youd want to be in...

 

[Kauri]

Hi Michael

It might be helpful, not just for Kauri, but for others of us who have chosen to hold the stocks Kauri mentioned, if you could explain just what you think he/she should have done.

e.g. I hold ZFX and KZL and as long as the medium term outlook for zinc is positive, I'm not going to sell just because the SP drops for a few days.

With thanks

Julia

Julia
I think you meant "Out to Soon".. Incidentally, I hold KZL and my stop is set, from memory, around the $ 6.80 area.
Cheers
Kauri

 

[mildew79]

Hi Michael

It might be helpful, not just for Kauri, but for others of us who have chosen to hold the stocks Kauri mentioned, if you could explain just what you think he/she should have done.

e.g. I hold ZFX and KZL and as long as the medium term outlook for zinc is positive, I'm not going to sell just because the SP drops for a few days.

With thanks

Julia

stops are moreso important for speckies in my opinion. companies who's SP is subject to shareholder mentality at the time alone. The stocks you mention have strong profits and a positive outlook for future gains. any short term fall shall very likely be regained in the near future!

the question is: if the stock is breaking an uptrend and looks like going sideways for some time, do you think you can outperform the tax benefits of a long term hold by placing those funds elsewhere in the near term?? alot of experienced traders back themselves to do this, and will buy the stock back as its SP starts to increase again.

If you feel the answer to this question is "no" for you, and you hold a positive outlook, then forget about the stop.

 

[Out Too Soon]

You continue along with the masses, losing money because you don't have a backtested positive expectancy trading system which you consistently execute.

That's right Michael, as I said before I'm learning & what better way. Through trial & error I will develop a system that I will then learn to stick to. I did make a profit & now I'm wondering if & when to jump back on.
I'd like to make $200,000 out of -$20,000 in 10 years & I believe I'll do it.

 

[MichaelD]

It might be helpful, not just for Kauri, but for others of us who have chosen to hold the stocks Kauri mentioned, if you could explain just what you think he/she should have done.

e.g. I hold ZFX and KZL and as long as the medium term outlook for zinc is positive, I'm not going to sell just because the SP drops for a few days.

Just a couple of disclaimers first for context:

1. I trade 3 letter codes in accordance with my trading plans. I don't need to know anything more about the entity I'm trading to make consistent profits. In fact, knowing more than just the 3 letter code is more often than not harmful psychologically.

2. Currently I have neither ZFX nor KZL in my long or short term portfolios. There's no particular reason for this, just that my funds are fully committed elsewhere.

However, for the sake of the discussion, according to my long term trading plan;

ZFX has given multiple buy signals from mid June. If I had entered on any of these signals, I would still be holding. It came within a whisker of my stop loss on 12-Sep-2006. The last few days of price action would have been well and truly within this stock's normal behaviour and would have been of no concern to me. Chart with stop loss plotted below.

KZL has given multiple buy signals from late May. Again if I had entered I would still be holding and the last few days of price action are nowhere near the stop.


I'd suggest that any long term trading plan which had its stops hit on either of these stocks in the last few days has a stop loss which is far too close.

 

[Julia]

Julia
I think you meant "Out to Soon".. Incidentally, I hold KZL and my stop is set, from memory, around the $ 6.80 area.
Cheers
Kauri

Hi Kauri,

My apologies. You are of course right. I did indeed mean to refer to Out too Soon.

Julia

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I've been watching ZFX for about 6months when they were something along the lines of $7.50... I would hold off them for now just cos I think it's about time for people to cash them in... Will maybe getsome later

Why did you just watch ZFX back in June?,

A good suggestion would be to figure out if you have faith in the 'stronger for longer' theory of commodities. Make an educted decision if China and maybe India and a few other countries have some more oomph left in their development or if the booms over after just a few years.

At this point if your answer was yes you should have figured out what commodities are essential to fuel such a boom. Have a look at the inventories of said commodities and determine which could possably run short, simple supply vs demand.

Then identify which companies had the best fundamentals (market cap vs EPS, mine life, quality management etc). Then check the T/A to see how fast they move out of a correction. The 'May' correction would have given you some pointers on this.

If you have confidence in the companies you are trading, the marketplace in which they derive their earnings and you stick to your plan, IMHO youre about as educated as you can be mate.

Get a bit proficient in T/A as it helps to time youre trades, in my opinion its still risky trading on it alone as if a Company has no fundamentals behind it, well youre just basically gambling.

Another tip would be to not get caught up in the hype of a correction, risks etc of so called 'experts' who say commodities are going to collapse etc. Short term their not mate!. These experts called the same last year before the run that ended in May and then just prior to the Nickle and Zinc run we just had. their a bit like the weather man, they offer advice after we already know it a sunny day!.

Trade a plan, make sure its educated, and for a beginer read the forums and if youre into commodities, Rederobs a great poster for commodities he called the last 2 months absolutely perfect.

All the best, with a few smart plays and if youv'e got half a noggin you will turn 5 grand into 20 without a problem. Just remember ride momentum, don't sell early and have stop losses (but not on youre bottom picks in the good players in Zinc,Nickle and Uranium).

All the above is only my opinion in trading/investing,youre goal of 50 grand is realistic if you reinvest youre profits

 

[nizar]

All the above is only my opinion in trading/investing,youre goal of 50 grand is realistic if you reinvest youre profits

I beg to differ.
To go from 5grand to 50grand in 1 year (which was wat insider stated in the original post of this thread) is not only unrealistic, its impossible.
The average return in the stockmarket long term is about 12%pa. Now for a beginner (which is what insider said he was) to go 10-fold in a year is an unreasonable expectation.

Pros do not even get these returns. Your average 10-bagger takes about 2 years.

Investing/Trading is a zero sum game. For somebody to be a winner, somebody else must be a loser. People are out there to take your money, and they often have more skill, knowledge, tools and experience than you.

Theres basically 3 types of people in the markets.
1/institutions
2/professionals
3/amateurs

Who from these 3 is a net loser over the long-term?
I can bet my bottom dollar thats its the third group.

Investing/trading is not easy at all. ANd when you are undercapitalised, inexperienced and up against those more pro than you, plus brokerage, it actually becomes a minus sum game as some people like to say, and that makes it even harder to be a winner.

Good luck though. Dont try to be a millionaire overnight. Just take it easy. The more higher risks you take (without the appropriate risk management) the higher the chance you will become just like the average - and average people lose at this game.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Insider may be undercapitalised but everyones gotta start somewhere.
He made a good pick on DYL, probably exited to early but a profits a profit and he doubled his money.

As long as he realises you don't have to always be in the market, waits for the right opportunities and trades a plan, he will do alright.

I'm not into quoting percentages, pro's/amateurs or comparrisons on profits made. The fact of the matter is that a great many brokers/traders are young greenhorns straight out of UNI, no practical business sense and investing other crews cash without any real life business experience in the real world.

I certainly wouldn't be keeping my cash in their hands, we all know how knowledgable a youngun is straight out of home, they know everything!.

What does the best high risk fund return Nizar per annum?, 30 percent odd. Would you be happy with a return like that?.

Insiders already up on that with his DYL, compounding on what hes got he will do fine.

If he leaves the market now he is better off than the experts would have returned him in a year.

Good on him for setting a goal and working towards it!.

Just noticed the mention of Institutions. Personally I think their the greatest asset in the market place. If you cant time youre entries/exits to your avantage in regard to what is the slow moving dinasour "Institutions", you shouldn't be in the market at all!.

 

[Out Too Soon]

I beg to differ.
Investing/Trading is a zero sum game. For somebody to be a winner, somebody else must be a loser. People are out there to take your money, and they often have more skill, knowledge, tools and experience than you.

Theres basically 3 types of people in the markets.
1/institutions
2/professionals
3/amateurs

So until recently there weren't many so called amateurs yet there still had to be losers for there to be winners! right?

 

[nizar]

So until recently there weren't many so called amateurs yet there still had to be losers for there to be winners! right?

there were always amateurs, and always will be. mums and dads are a sub-category. they just buy what they read in the herald sun or what an "analyst" or broker advises them. they are mostly clueless.

"zero sum game" are not my words, but Gordon Gekko's. I just finished watching wall street again, i need some inspiration from the man.

the market will always be the same, essentially transferring money from one person (the losers) to another person (the winners)

 

[tech/a]

I beg to differ.
To go from 5grand to 50grand in 1 year (which was wat insider stated in the original post of this thread) is not only unrealistic, its impossible.

I used to think so. But not any more.

The average return in the stockmarket long term is about 12%pa. Now for a beginner (which is what insider said he was) to go 10-fold in a year is an unreasonable expectation.

Highly unlikely is probably more accurate.

Pros do not even get these returns. Your average 10-bagger takes about 2 years.

It is possible in less time but unlikely.

Investing/Trading is a zero sum game. For somebody to be a winner, somebody else must be a loser. People are out there to take your money, and they often have more skill, knowledge, tools and experience than you.

Theres basically 3 types of people in the markets.
1/institutions
2/professionals
3/amateurs

Who from these 3 is a net loser over the long-term?
I can bet my bottom dollar thats its the third group.

Well thats not true while there is constant NEW money (Superanuation) coming into the market and losses are seen as course of business the balance is not zero.

Investing/trading is not easy at all. ANd when you are undercapitalised, inexperienced and up against those more pro than you, plus brokerage, it actually becomes a minus sum game as some people like to say, and that makes it even harder to be a winner.

You shouldnt be trading.

Good luck though. Dont try to be a millionaire overnight. Just take it easy. The more higher risks you take (without the appropriate risk management) the higher the chance you will become just like the average - and average people lose at this game.

If you move with the crowd your one of the crowd.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

there were always amateurs, and always will be. mums and dads are a sub-category. they just buy what they read in the herald sun or what an "analyst" or broker advises them. they are mostly clueless.

"zero sum game" are not my words, but Gordon Gekko's. I just finished watching wall street again, i need some inspiration from the man.

the market will always be the same, essentially transferring money from one person (the losers) to another person (the winners)

What do you consider when Companies' SP is rising as buyers are prepared to pay more for the shares as sellers are drying up is happening Nizar?. Is that not people making profits.

What about when a Insto liquidates its position in a decent company, what happens then. What about when a Insto values a Company at X and the small holders want Y?.

 

[Stan 101]

alternatively, you could walk into a casino and go red, black, red, red on roulette and make it a cool 60k...only takes 5 minutes and no brokerage or capital gains..


Cheers,

 

[legs]

How about this??

Why dont we all just say good luck and leave all the insults, degrading comments out of it? Yes it is unlikely to be achieved and you may coment on why it is possible or not possible but insulting remarks aren't really called for and put a real "downer" on the whole site.

 

[nizar]

alternatively, you could walk into a casino and go red, black, red, red on roulette and make it a cool 60k...only takes 5 minutes and no brokerage or capital gains..


Cheers,

Good idea champ...

 

[Bearman52]

How about this??

Why dont we all just say good luck and leave all the insults, degrading comments out of it? Yes it is unlikely to be achieved and you may coment on why it is possible or not possible but insulting remarks aren't really called for and put a real "downer" on the whole site.

I agree with you Legs
And it is possible
Remember that there are daytraders out there (all be it primarily in futures and geared instruments ((and also of course part of the winning 10%))) who regularly multiply their Banks by 10>>20 times per year ,you don't hear much about them but they are there forget the nonsense about 10% or whatever being a good return and don't compare yourself to the big investors//fund managers as an individual "DAYTRADER" you can move in and out of the market a lot easier than someone trading $millions using a programmed approach using ,lets face it!someone elses money.
Realise that an Instrument (not neccasarily a stock) might for example have an average monthly range of ?????say 20 points,pips,tiks or $$$s but in that 20 whatevers there maybe XX times as many pts tics etc over the ups and downs of the daily movements
Capture 40>60% of them and you are on your way.
So remember it can be done it has and is being done ! just find a way that >>>YOU<<< can do it
BM

 

[Bearman52]

PS Insider $200 is not much of a buffer against anything !!Take it and buy a good bottle of wine ,scotch , brandy??whatever you prefer and celebrate making $4200 then think about how often you could do that if you do the hard yards and get it right
BM

 

[nizar]

PS Insider $200 is not much of a buffer against anything !!

Agree.
I dont think ive ever had a loss of this (tiny) maginitude. ANd im a very small player as well.