TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[fiftyeight]

Well, if it was just based on Tesla as it stands today, it’s over valued.

But I made some estimates based on what the production capacity will be once all the factories currently in production / ramp up / construction will be, and then what I believe their profit margin on those vehicles will be, and I think once all those factories have ramped up, Tesla will be pretty fairly valued.

then there is the solar roof business, stationary home and grid batteries, Insurance business and the future opportunities for Robo taxis, software and different vehicles like buses etc.

I think at this stage anyone that thinks Elon is a crook or that he isn’t a genius is just a cynical person.

to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if in 10 years Tesla was worth $2 Trillion market cap, and it’s currently a bit over $400 billion, you it may be a 5 bagger in 10 years, so I am happy to hold it long term.

Agree on all of the above.

As you have been fan of the product for a while, what has changed, why now?

 

[Value Collector]

Agree on all of the above.

As you have been fan of the product for a while, what has changed, why now?

When I first started looking at them a couple of years back, I thought they were over valued and there was to much risk.

I mean they were a producer of a luxury car and had plans to launch the model 3, but it wasn’t clear that they were going to be able to get the model 3 plant ramped up before they ran out of money, and it also wasn’t obvious how successful the model 3 was going to be.

Also, maybe because of my lack of imagination, I couldn’t see the big picture of how it all fit together and I didn’t understand their pathway to value generation.

It’s a different story now though, they have the Fremont factory pumping, Shanghai is ramping up, and ground is broken on two other plants.

Its a bit like when you are watching movie, and you don’t quite understand the story, but then clicks in your brain, and the plot becomes clears and you understand all the subtle hints and sub plots that have been going on, over the last 3 months or so I just finally started to get the Tesla story at a deep level, and felt comfortable investing.

but then the price became high, which generally puts me off, but when I spent some more time working on estimates as I described above, I started to feel confident that this thing might be the next Apple, and be worth $2 Trillion plus in the future.

so although I regret not buying sooner, I think there is still a lot of value generation happening, and am happy to hold from here on out.

 

[orr]

In the last week Rob Maurers Tesla Daily Podcast has had two long form interveiws with well credentialed analists. At the more Tech end also Jordon over at the Limiting Factors well researched pull apart on dry electolyte deposition was brillant at pulling back the curtian...
not TSLA related atm.... Sandy's 'What's in the Box' for it's heads up to the CSIRO...

 

[joeno]

Cost of electricity by source - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Was surprised how cheap it is to generate 1kwh through Solar and Wind. WOnder if there's any solar companies that are sound but haven't been ramped up by the hype in the last 6 months.

 

[Value Collector]

So, what does a romantic man like me get his wife for her birthday, A voucher for Tesla stock of course, Hahaha

(I did get her some conventional presents too, I am not completely insane, yet)

The drawing is my best effort of Elon standing on the cyber truck, from the Jay Leno people of Tesla joke, she loved the gift, I think I married the right girl.

 

[Lucky777]

Haha Elon doesn’t have a mullet!

 

[orr]

Anybody else watching the beta self driving clips up on YouTube??

 

[Value Collector]

Anybody else watching the beta self driving clips up on YouTube??

Yeah, I can't wait till the update comes through on my car, I have the car for a bit over a year now, and with every update the self driving features just keep getting better and better, so I am really looking for to this next update, apparently its the biggest update yet.

 

[orr]

Collector, mid last week(can't remeber which day) Rob Maurer 'Tesla Daily' highlighted the tie up in the UK between Octopus Energy and Tesla to make availalbe a Solar feed-in/supply deal far more advantageous than any of the competion. This is also of interest to also to the "Future of Energy and Storage" thread....
Earlier this year Origin Energy, here, announced their association with Octopus UK. By coincidence I sold Origin 12+ months ago to buy Tesla, I'm in no hurry to Buy any Origin now or be one of their customers again. That said, the importance here though encompasses Tesla's 'AutoBidder' and a geographically diversified VPP. This is TSLA's software that utilises the capital of others to enrich them while shoveling money onto Tesla's bottom line.
No doubt the the cogs are grinding at Origin now, but it's a company that's failed to 'mesh the gears' on more than the odd occasion in the past.
I look forward with great despair my cybertruk(range on the Tri-motor rumoured to be out to 560miles) ruining my weekend.
Ohh for those past 'joys' petrol sniffing, that first oil change on the second-hand falcon to find the stripped sump-plug hole... where are all the lost petrol caps of yesteryear????

 

[Value Collector]

Robo taxi network here we come

 

[orr]

The upcoming entry to the S&P ? How hard is the squeeze going to be for all the funds and those tracking to get set? by the 2nd and 3rd week of December ... As I post US$455 looks very reasonable to me. dyor....

 

[orr]

General Motors doesn't have a dedicated thread; GM stock has had a recent run though and reports are that the current CEO, Mary Barra has sold off half her stock in the comany trousering circa US$43mill...A vote of confedence in the future of the company???
Quite a good move Ms Mary...my view.
Harbinger 'Trickle to a flood' for the legacy Big Auto's...

This as GM announces that by 2025 %40 of there R&D will be for Battery electric/autonomous; 40%... Expect further selling by Ms Mary, in short order...

Just keeping an eye on the competion, such that it is...

 

[noirua]

Tesla price chart:

http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l

 

[orr]

For those with an interest in the Tech; Dave Lee did a long chat with James Douma (3hrs) a week or so back. Enter their names into YouTube it'll come up...
There's no easy way to condence what Mr Douma(who has a serious CV) has to offer, it's for the nerds though... At lenght on FSD, DOJO, Nueral Net and Machine learning...
There is a 1hr chat that sits in the middle of the bigger. But for a whole lot more do the 3. Right at the end he brings out the AlfaFold connection and your head explodes.

to quote Ian Dury 'Ain't half been some clever geeza's'

 

[noirua]

Tesla to raise another $5bn by selling shares (msn.com)

Tesla is to raise up to $5bn selling new shares, as the electric carmaker takes advantage of an almost 900% surge in its share price over the last 12 months.

 

[noirua]

Tesla short seller is one casualty as funds lose millions on blue-chip bets

Short-sellers took huge losses on FTSE 100 companies in the past month as share prices rebounded, while one UK fund manager has stepped down after a...

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk

 

[ducati916]

Some facts re. TSLA

Here are ten facts that put help put Tesla’s rise into context and perspective.

• When Tesla went public in 2010, it was the first U.S. car company to IPO on the stock market since Ford offered stock to investors in 1956. Fast forward to today, when Tesla is added to the S&P 500, at least based where it trades today, it would come in as the sixth largest stock in the index. No stock has ever come in with that high of a weight.

• It will potentially carry a higher weight than Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has a total return of 2,744,062% since its founding in 1965. Berkshire has almost ten times the revenue Tesla has.

• It would be a larger weight than Wal-Mart, which employs more than 2.2 million people globally.

• If Verizon Wireless was to double its current size, Tesla would still be bigger from a market cap perspective.

• Tesla’s increase in market value this year alone, from roughly $75B at the end of 2019 to approximately $550B today (so an increase of $475B) is more than if you merged Home Depot, the leading U.S. home improvement company, with Unilever, the consumer goods juggernaut with over 400 brands.

• Sweden, as a country, produced $530B in GDP for 2019. Tesla’s market cap of $550B is $20B higher than the entire output of the Scandinavian nation.

• According to this WSJ article, the addition of Tesla is expected “to put more than $100 billion into motion.”

• Over the past 10 years, Tesla’s stock is up over 10,000% so it is getting added to the index after an incredible run.

• Since going public, Tesla’s stock has an annual standard deviation of over 60% compared to the S&P 500’s 13.2%. If that volatility continues, it could increase the volatility of the index going forward.

• The company is expected to produce 500,000 cars in 2020. At its current valuation it’s approximately being valued at $1,100,000 per car produced.

None of this is meant as an evaluation of Tesla’s future prospects. If the company delivers in the promise that its bulls think it has, it could end up being a great investment for the index going forward. If the bears are right, it could significantly hurt the S&P 500’s returns.

But either way, this is in many ways an event that is unlike anything many of us have seen in our investing lifetimes, so it is interesting to look at its implications. Tesla’s market valuation is now on par with other giant companies. Only time will tell if can remain one of the world’s most valued companies, but either way, it will certainly be interesting to watch.

I get why so many want to short this. The only way to do it is via PUTS, at least then if you are wrong your losses are capped at 100% of the premium paid.

The thing is, the inclusion into the S&P 500 was made in Nov. Since that time TSLA has risen +/- 50%. There was speculation back in March +/- that it would be included (correctly) and since then it has risen +/- 700%

jog on
duc

 

[orr]

The reported one hit price reduction of what will be Teslas biggest selling unit the ModelY (Shanghi) gives an indication of there advancements in production methodology in real figures( all be it massaged from an overpriced original) but enough to solicit 100k orders on the day of announcement. Looks like the Giga Casting press is going to do for mass Auto manufacture what the mechanical slicer did for bread.
Over all 2020 production 500k vehical units ....(up from 2019; 360k)...
Can't enter 2021 stock tipping, all mine(conservative) are non-ASX listed( TSLA $703(us) ARKK $124(us) TEAM $234(us) CAT $182(us)....) at time of post.

 

[noirua]

SHANGHAI -- Chinese electric-vehicle startup NIO Inc. unveiled its fourth production model Saturday, as it prepares to face the challenge of Tesla Inc.'s locally built Model Y crossover, which launches in China in the coming weeks.

 

[over9k]

Might be worth just sticking to the electric car thread?