TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[moXJO]

I must admit I believe F and GM are a better play atm for EV on NASDAQ.

gg

If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.

 

[JohnDe]

If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.

List of most indebted companies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Trader X]

Deep value is emerging in TSLA, no doubt the current negative sentiment will abate and the shorts will need to cover at some point.

 

[Knobby22]

Tesla share price crashes on brutal day for Elon Musk​

It would seem that Tesla investors are placing far more importance on Tesla's performance as a car company than some contributors here think should be the case. Even if one assumes the TSLA P/E ratio should be 2x that of say Toyota, the share price has ever further to fall.

Changed your mind pretty quickly.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Still another 54% drop to reach the price that the CEO opined is too high...

 

[Trader X]

Changed your mind pretty quickly.

Not really, still think TSLA has further falls ahead. At some point this selloff will bottom as interest rate rises come to an end and inflation slows or reverses. At that point in time, growth stocks like TSLA will likely come back onto the radar of value investors.

 

[Value Collector]

If anything, it's which of the big manufacturers go broke. This is a real possibility.

I am not sure any of the big guys are going to go bust, they might not have to much cashflow left for servicing their share holders though once they have serviced their debt holders and pension plans.

 

[moXJO]

Changed your mind pretty quickly.

I'm both ways on it- between short and long term. Huge future potential and the top engineer's in the world. But black swan machine gunned in the current market amid some very questionable decisions.

Also the repricing of everything in a world of tightening money.

 

[JohnDe]

I’m not keen on it, but it has garnered a huge following from futurists, and over 100,000 orders

 

[mullokintyre]

China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
From Bloombergs

Tesla Inc. shares extended their slump after the carmaker made another round of price cuts in China’s increasingly competitive electric vehicle market.
The starting price for Tesla’s locally built Model Y sport utility vehicle has dropped 10% to a new low of 259,900 yuan ($37,875), according to the company’s China website. That standard-range, rear-wheel-drive version costs 43% less than the base Model Y available in the US, which has a longer range and is all-wheel-drive. Tesla also lowered the price of the Model 3 by 14% to 229,900 yuan, about 30% cheaper than in the US.
Tesla already cut prices in October, as China’s mass market and premium EV segments becomes increasingly crowded by the likes of domestic players BYD Co., Xpeng Inc. and Nio Inc., as well as international stalwarts Porsche AG and Mercedes Benz Group AG.

“This time it’s serious,” Chris McNally, an Evercore ISI analyst with the equivalent of a hold rating on Tesla, said in a note. The new entry price for the Model 3 is likely to combat BYD’s recently introduced and popular Seal model, he wrote.

Tesla shares fell 3.5% as of 9:55 a.m. New York time Friday. Signs of deteriorating prospects for Tesla in China and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s preoccupation with Twitter Inc. contributed to the carmaker’s stock plunging 37% in December and 65% in 2022, its worst monthly and yearly performances.

According to Nikkei ,

Tesla cut electric car prices in China for the second time in less than three months on Friday, stoking expectations for a wider price war for battery-powered vehicles in the world's largest auto market where demand has weakened.

Tesla also cut prices on its best-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles in Japan, South Korea and Australia.

I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

I tried an entry yesterday around 110usd which was exited via SL at open last night.tried again today.
Low conviction but if market has a bear rally bump in the US, TSLA might benefit even more?

 

[Value Collector]

China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
From Bloombergs


According to Nikkei ,

I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
Mick

I don’t know the cause of this round of price drops, but they have reduced prices a few times as they have been scaling up production.

Out of all the car makers they do have the highest margins, so do have the most room to reduce prices.

————————

One important thing to remember is that Tesla is guaranteed to lose market share as other company’s bring evs to market, but this isn’t bad because the EV market is expanding, and Teslas sales will continue to grow.

Eg having a 50% market share of a 1 million car market is better than having a 100% market share of a 1 thousand car market.

No doubt you will see articles that say Tesla is losing ground to competitors, even as they continue to grow sales, market share is kind of irrelevant.

 

[JohnDe]

China may well be showing the world that Tesla will find that its lead in the EV market can be very quickly eroded.
From Bloombergs


According to Nikkei ,

I cannot imagine that these price cuts are due to a lowering of production costs, especially as most economies still have inflation going through the pipelines.
The issue here is that increase in competitive products have forced teslas hand in lowering prices.
The breakaway Market leaders generally come back to the peleton.
Mick

 

[basilio]

I'm intrigued by the issues around the commercialisation of the 4860 battery pack. This was always intended to be the big break for Tesla. A much more powerful, efficient and cheaper battery pack that would keep Tesla ahead of competitors.

It seems to be struggling at the moment to fully realise the reliability and cost effective components of the battery. There was an excellent article offered on ASF by another poster (sorry can't remember who ) which cast doubt of whether these problems would be easily fixable. If that is the case it could open the door for new competitors in the race to drop battery prices.

I also think that Elons focus on Twitter and the loss of respect for him amongst many potential customers is taking the sheen off Tesla products. That is translating into the collapse of the SP and the the softening of demand .

Inside Tesla's drive to keep Musk's battery promise

The secret behind Elon Musk's goal of selling 20 million Tesla's a year by 2030 lies in its pioneering battery technology.

www.reuters.com

https://medium.com › predict › teslas-revolutionary-4680-has-a-massive-problem-8e89c18a59c8

Tesla's "Revolutionary" 4680 Has A Massive Problem​

Nov 22, 2022So Tesla's "revolutionary battery pack" is far from what Musk indicated. In fact, it seems like this project is going nowhere fast. This is a huge problem for Tesla because, let's not ...

 

[basilio]

Found another analysis of the new 4680 battery pack. Few gremlins there..

Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y​

Giga Texas assembles the 4680 Model Y (image: Tesla)
Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.
Daniel Zlatev, Published 11/18/2022 ?? ?? ...
E-Mobility

Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y

Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[basilio]

This analysis of the repairablity of the 4860 battery pack is also a concern IMV. I suppose however if the pack last a million miles who cares ? But you wouldn't want any significant issues with reliability in the 8 year/240k warranty period.

New Tesla Model Y structural 4680 cell pack spells the end of cheap electric car battery repairs

The new cell-to-chassis EV battery packs will make fixing a bad unit a replacement rather than repair game. Repairability of the new Model Y 4680 structural battery pack is 'essentially zero,' according to Cory from Munro & Associates whose teams took two days just to get into the battery.

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[JohnDe]

Found another analysis of the new 4680 battery pack. Few gremlins there..

Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y​

View attachment 151355Giga Texas assembles the 4680 Model Y (image: Tesla)
Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.
Daniel Zlatev, Published 11/18/2022 ?? ?? ...
E-Mobility

Tesla 4680 vs 2170 battery cell test reveals lower energy density in the Texas-made Model Y

Those Model Y buyers who queue for an Austin-made unit with the 'revolutionary' 4680 battery cell may be in for a disappointment. A teardown and analysis of one such cell returned lower energy density than that of the Model Y with 2170 battery. Still, Tesla benefits from the lower per-pack price.

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[basilio]

Interesting. I notice that this is a paper analysis based on the information provided by the companies and the schematics of the various design options.

The concern with Teslas 4860 battery is the build process is not going according to Hoyle. Resolving those problems is the issue.

 

[moXJO]

This analysis of the repairablity of the 4860 battery pack is also a concern IMV. I suppose however if the pack last a million miles who cares ? But you wouldn't want any significant issues with reliability in the 8 year/240k warranty period.

New Tesla Model Y structural 4680 cell pack spells the end of cheap electric car battery repairs

The new cell-to-chassis EV battery packs will make fixing a bad unit a replacement rather than repair game. Repairability of the new Model Y 4680 structural battery pack is 'essentially zero,' according to Cory from Munro & Associates whose teams took two days just to get into the battery.

www.notebookcheck.net

Rather listen to Sandy Munro.
https://m.youtube.com/@MunroLive/videos
The pack should last 1 million miles with 10% degradation I thought.

Remember when you could change the battery out of your phone?
Well it got to a point where it's no longer needed.
The 4860 is designed for reliability. Its likely impossible to service. But it doesn't use screws or wires (which are high high % rate fails). I'm sure it was press fit and the whole thing done in a way to be as reliable as possible. A lot of the guys that like to reuse and repurpose batteries do not like it though.

So the big take is do you want serviceability or something manufactured not to break. Hmm what cars have dealerships that make a butt tonne of money from servicing cars.

 

[moXJO]

Details here on battery savings, info:

https://www.takomabattery.com/tesla-4680-battery/

So the manufacturing space needed, costs and processes are greatly reduced.
So no it's still good

Video detailing some of the problems: