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TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

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Tesla just reported first-quarter earnings for 2022 and beat analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. Here are the key numbers.

  • Earnings per share: $3.22 vs $2.26 expected
  • Revenue: $18.76 billion vs $17.80 billion expected
Automotive revenue reached $16.86 billion, up 87% from the same period last year. Automotive gross margins jumped to a record 32.9% with Tesla reporting gross profit of $5.54 billion in its main segment. Regulatory credits accounted for $679 million of automotive revenue for the quarter.

Revenue growth was driven in part by an increase in the number of cars Tesla delivered, and an increase in average sales prices, the company said in its shareholder deck.

Early this month, Tesla reported vehicle deliveries of 310,048 for the first quarter, the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company. Model 3 and Model Y vehicles comprised 95%, or 295,324, of deliveries in the period ending March 31, 2022.

On the company's earnings call, CFO Zachary Kirkhorn and CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla remains confident that it can grow at least 50% over 2021 numbers. However, the execs noted that the company has lost about a month of "build volume" in Shanghai due to Covid-related shutdowns.

"Production is resuming at limited levels, and we're working to get back to full production as quickly as possible," Kirkhorn said.
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This was headline that grabbed my attention most:

Tesla Crushes Earnings Estimates. Wall Street Is ‘Speechless.’​

Despite supply chain issues - although maybe not as severe as for some other manufacturers - Tesla continues to ramp up production across all its sites. In fact Berlin will ramp faster than Shanghai, which shows how Tesla drives home its industry advantages in constantly improving on all previous performance.

More concerning for legacy automakers is that while Tesla can still put up its prices to counter inflation etc., it is able to do this and achieve continuing rising demand, which is opposite to those still stuck in the ICE age, as Sam Evans has been regularly pointing out since starting his YouTube channel less than a year ago:
 
Of course the biggest winner from Teslas outstanding quarterly results is .....

Elon Musk He now stands to take home a $23Billion bonus. How did this happen? Check out the two stories around the unique bonus deal that has made Elon the richest person in the world.

Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus​

This article is more than 4 years old
Musk will become planet’s richest man if he turns Tesla into a $650bn business in a decade
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Elon Musk has agreed to work unpaid for a decade, after which he would be paid $55.8bn if Tesla becomes a $650bn company. Photograph: Tesla Handout/EPA

Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent

@RupertNeate
Tue 23 Jan 2018 15.39 GMTLast modified on Wed 21 Mar 2018 17.25 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...aiming-for-worlds-biggest-bonus-40bn#comments
882
Elon Musk, the founder and chief executive of electric car company Tesla, would smash all pay records and become the richest man in the world if an extraordinarily ambitious new incentive scheme pays out.

The 46-year-old entrepreneur, who is already a multi-billionaire, has agreed to work unpaid for the next 10 years – after which he would collect an unprecedented $55.8bn (£40bn) bonus if builds the 14-year-old business into a $650bn company within a decade.

www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus

Musk will become planet’s richest man if he turns Tesla into a $650bn business in a decade
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk poised to collect $23bn bonus as Tesla beats targets​

Electric car giant’s CEO says he is not in talks on new bonus scheme after completing 2018 deal early
3500.jpg

Elon Musk is thought to have a personal fortune worth $249bn. Photograph: Reuters

Rupert Neate Wealth correspondent

@RupertNeate
Thu 21 Apr 2022 10.42 BSTLast modified on Fri 22 Apr 2022 00.01 BST


Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla and the world’s richest person, is set to collect a $23bn (£17.6bn) bonus after the electric car company’s reported record quarterly profits.

Musk, who is already sitting on an estimated $249bn fortune, is in line for the bonus share payout after Tesla hit share price and financial growth milestones in its earnings on Wednesday night.

Tesla made an adjusted profit of $5bn on revenue of $18.8bn in the first quarter of the year, an 81% increase on the same period a year earlier. The results, combined with the growth in Tesla’s share price performance, mean Musk has hit targets that should lead to a bonus share payout worth about $23bn.

The company outlined an extraordinary deal for Musk in 2018 that would pay him an unprecedented record $55.8bn (£40bn) bonus if he built the business into a $650bn company within a decade.

He achieved that milestone early, in January 2020. Tesla today has a market value of $1.1tn, after a 1,600% rise in its share price since the target was set in January 2018. The shares jumped 11% in early trading on Thursday to $10.60.

It means Musk, who collects no salary from Tesla, should now have unlocked the final three parts of the 12-tranche bonus scheme. Each tranche gives Musk the right to buy 8.4m Tesla shares at $70, a huge discount on the current $977 price of the stock. His profit on each tranche could be $7.7bn, or a combined value of $23bn. The payments need to be signed off by the board, and he must hold on to the shares for five years before selling.

www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk poised to collect $23bn bonus as Tesla beats targets

Electric car giant’s CEO says he is not in talks on new bonus scheme after completing 2018 deal early
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
From Electrek
A Tesla vehicle was caught on video crashing into a $3.5M Cirrus Vision jet after being ‘summoned’ in a dangerous way by the owner.
Smart Summon builds on Tesla’s previous “Summon” feature, which was used by owners to move their cars autonomously for a few feet in their driveway or in tight parking situations. With the new version, owners are able to Summon their Tesla vehicles from further away, and the cars will navigate more complex parking environments.

CEO Elon Musk described Smart Summon as “Tesla’s most viral feature.”
Click to expand...

Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
Well, thats interesting, as my Dad was also a panel beater.
These days, being written off does not mean what it used to.
The cost of labor , spare parts, paints solvents, and most importantly the airbag replacement, can write off a car with minimal damage.
Just been watching a Utube vid of Robbie Layton rebuilding a Toyota Fourrunner written off by the insurance company after hitting a deer which had got into the front RHS wheel well .
Was not a lot of obvious damage externally, but this car had every single airbag go off, both front and rear, a total of 11 air bags to be replaced, as well as the two front explosive lockup mechanisms in the front seat belts.
That was the knockout blow, as the headliner had to be removed, the complete dash, the seats had to be cut open, new side airbags installed and then reupholstered. The amount of labour alone would have made it a write off.
I guess a Tesla may well be in a similar position if it hit a deer and set off all the airbags.
Mick
Click to expand...
Well the LED headlight assembly on my car apparently are $3,000 each, so writing off a car these days would be easy, yet we are moving to a more sustainable model, don't you just love it. Feed the chooks. Lol
 
"Tesla is likely looking to expand to other parts of East Asia. The two most likely countries to receive a Gigafactory would be Japan or South Korea."
As a country if we stopped looking inwards and started believing in a future, Australia could have a Gigafactory. We have several great locations, on the East coast all the way to Geelong. Sadly it will never happen because we're too political and too defeatist.

Current and Upcoming Tesla Gigafactories​

To say that Tesla has big plans for its Gigafactory idea would be an understatement. It may not be long until we see such factories all over the world. The foundations, so to speak, have been laid, and the potential is clear. Learn about the current Gigafactories that are up and running, those under construction, and where new ones may show up in the future.​
​

Giga Nevada​

As mentioned above, Tesla already has a Gigafactory up and running in Nevada. It’s located in Sparks, Nevada, just outside of Reno. The factory has been open since 2016 and continues to grow. When it first opened, Tesla promised it would provide more than 6,000 jobs while providing more than 100 billion dollars to the local economy. Tesla also said that the factory would eventually generate 35 gigawatt-hours worth of batteries. So far, it appears Tesla has made good on those promises, such as employing more than 7,000 people on-site.​
​
Plans are for the factory to continue expanding. There are indications that Tesla would like to move some of their semi manufacturing to the Nevada factory. Tesla doesn’t even fully utilize the facility yet, with some of its space leased to other companies like Panasonic. One can’t help but feel excitement for what the Gigafactory will look like when it’s complete.​
​

Giga New York​

The other fully running Gigafactory in the United States is located in Buffalo, New York. Unlike other Gigafactories Tesla has built and plans to build, this facility has a narrower focus. The 1.2 million square foot Tesla factory only works on solar energy products. You’ll find no electric vehicles here. Their production of solar energy items started back in 2017 with a focus on solar cells. Years later, Tesla added more elements to their production lines, including the components for energy storage products.​
​
This Gigafactory appears to have a bit smaller scale compared to others. The facility originally belonged to a steel manufacturing company before switching over to Tesla’s unique products. Tesla plans to create more than 5,000 jobs in the state of New York over the course of a decade. The company hopes to turn Buffalo into a center for sustainable energy production.​
​

Giga Shanghai​

Many people look at the Shanghai Tesla Gigafactory as the ultimate example of what Elon Musk envisioned. With little red tape in China and fewer environmental considerations, Tesla constructed the factory in only 168 days. At the start of production in Giga Shanghai in 2020, Tesla made about 4,000 Model 3s every week. About a year later, Tesla has almost doubled their level of production, giving support to how achievable the Gigafactory goals are. Tesla is optimistic it can make 450,000 vehicles every year in Giga Shanghai.​
​
The factory has proven to be incredibly successful at meeting demand, at least for the time being. In fact, Tesla has stated that the output at the Gigafactory could lead to shipping finished vehicles to meet Europe’s demands, too. The company is happy with the results from China and even plans to open a research and development facility there.​
​

Giga Berlin​

The Gigafactory in Berlin has had its fair share of bumps in the road. The factory had an original construction completion date in the summer of 2021, but it has since suffered some delays. According to Elon Musk, much of the blame is due to bureaucratic issues with the German government. Many of the delays are related to environmental laws. With the factory being built near a nature preserve, it’s understandable that many in the area would be concerned about environmental impact, even if it is an electrical vehicle production plant.​
​
Those delays could soon come to an end. At a dinner party featuring 9,000 people, Musk announced that vehicles will begin rolling out of the factory in November 2021, meaning production is already underway. Tesla has yet to complete construction fully, but the facility can still produce Tesla products.​
​
This will be the first Tesla Gigafactory in Europe and will produce the Tesla Model Y vehicle. It’s scheduled to finish construction in April 2022, though further work and expansion will likely occur after that date. The company has even submitted plans for a Tesla battery factory next to the Gigafactory, meaning the future is bright for Tesla in Europe.​
​

Giga Texas​

The Tesla Texas Gigafactory is another facility under construction. Announced in July 2020, the Austin, Texas, construction has progressed rapidly. The site is about 2,500 acres in area and is intended to produce several types of electric vehicles in Tesla’s fleet. One of those vehicles is the much-hyped Tesla Cybertruck. Giga Texas will be the first factory to produce this truck, meaning Tesla can finally start fulfilling preorders.​
​
While some manufacturing has taken place at the facility, much of it is limited. Giga Texas will soon fully fire up its production line for stage one of the plan. So consumers can expect to see even more Tesla vehicles on the road soon.​
​

Rumored Gigafactories​

  • Giga UK: Tesla apparently reached out to people in the UK about building a Gigafactory there. However, no concrete information has come out to the public so far.
  • Giga India: Recently, Tesla established a business unit in India, leading many to speculate about the company building a Gigafactory in the country. The move would make business sense as it would decrease or eliminate import duties for shipments to parts of South Asia.
  • Giga Asia: With the success of Giga Shanghai, Tesla is likely looking to expand to other parts of East Asia. The two most likely countries to receive a Gigafactory would be Japan or South Korea.

Takeaways From the Tesla Gigafactory Idea​

When looking at the Tesla Gigafactory, it’s easy to get stuck on the sheer size of the thing. Yes, the factory is massive, but it represents much more than size. If anything, the idea represents progress in manufacturing and production that the world hasn’t seen in decades. Here are some key takeaways from Tesla’s Gigafactories.​
​

1. Vertical Integration​

Every corporation has the dream of keeping everything in-house. That’s the goal of vertical integration. When you control every part of the production process, you have tighter control over product quality and cost. It also saves companies money from what they would have spent on outside resources and clients. The Gigafactory ensures Tesla has total control over everything and can make changes when necessary without much of a hassle.​
​

2. First-Principles Thinking in Action​

It’s part of Elon Musk’s leadership style to engage in first-principles thinking. The key to this type of thinking is to always ask “why.” It’s a matter of reverse engineering what many people assume to be true. Just because something is the status quo doesn’t mean it has to be like that.​
​
The Tesla Gigafactory takes a tried and true process and asks why it’s done that way. With first-principles thinking, you work backward and create new and better systems. The result can sometimes be something as radically different as a factory with the floor space to hold nearly a hundred football fields.​
​

3. Innovating for the Customer​

Perhaps the most important takeaway of the Gigafactory is the potential for innovation it provides for the customer. One way customers stand to benefit is from price reductions. Many modern conveniences we enjoy today would have been unaffordable mere decades ago. The same may hold true for Tesla vehicles if the company follows through with the promises of their Gigafactories.​
​
Just think of how much could change if Model 3s, Ys, and future vehicles become affordable to the average shopper.​
​
The main difficulty Tesla has had comes from production. The demand is there, but the company can’t produce cars fast enough. The Gigafactory may be able to solve this problem, giving Tesla more room to breathe and get their products out to more people. If they’re able to solve this problem, they can create more products with the potential to transform the world. Their current initiatives allow them to make headway in their innovation strategy while revolutionizing other industries in the process.​


leaders.com

Inside the Tesla Gigafactory: A Look Into Automation And Scale

The Tesla Gigafactory holds the potential to transform manufacturing. Get the latest updates on Tesla's progress all over the world.
leaders.com leaders.com
 
Thierry Piéton, chief financial officer of Renault, said the French carmaker initially predicted raw-material costs would double this year. Now it thinks they will triple. Elon Musk says Tesla’s suppliers are requesting 20-30% increases in parts for electric cars compared to this time last year.

Mr Musk said Tesla’s price increases were high enough to cover the full amount of cost increases he expects this year. Yet still the vehicles continue to fly out the door.
Click to expand...

www.economist.com

The weird ways companies are coping with inflation

Consumers are barely yet aware of what is hitting them
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 

Tesla most ‘future-ready’ carmaker, China’s BYD rising: Report​

Japan’s Toyota second, followed by Germany’s Volkswagen and South Korea’s Hyundai.

Tesla is the most “future-ready” carmaker, while its Chinese competitor BYD has made the most progress in enhancing its resilience, according to an index compiled by a top business school.

Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company ranked first for readiness to navigate future crises for a fourth consecutive year, while Shenzhen-based BYD climbed nine places to fifth spot, according to the rankings released by the Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development (IMD) on Wednesday.

BYD’s local EV rivals XPeng, Li Auto and Nio ranked 12, 14, and 18, respectively.

The index, which has been compiled annually since 2010, bases its results on a combination of financial fundamentals, investors’ expectations of future growth, business diversity, employee diversity, research and development, early results of innovation efforts, and cash and debt.

International growth​

Howard Yu, the author of the index, said Chinese firms would have to look beyond the local market to maintain their growth in the years ahead.

“Zero COVID lockdowns in China presents a near-term challenge,” Yu told Al Jazeera. “In the long run, Chinese companies – that are future ready – must seek international growth. If they are earning foreign exchange substantially, they are in a more favourable position.”

“BYD is a great example, as 40 percent of its revenue comes from the international market; and diversification of market risk is an important element of a successful strategy,” Yu said.

Yu said that Asian firms continued to lag their Western counterparts in diversity, in particular.

“The ranking sees diversity in gender, nationality, and the mindset of executives playing an increasingly influential role in corporate success – outperforming their competitors and being more resilient,” he said. “The trend sees the limited capacity of an overly homogenous company to reinvent when too many employees come from the same background, whether in terms of CEO mindset or gender, and critical mass is the tipping point to success.

Japan’s Toyota ranked as the second most future-ready carmaker, followed by Germany’s Volkswagen and South Korea’s Hyundai.

BMW, Ford, Stellantis, Daimler and Geely Automobile rounded out the top 10. Renault, Suzuki and US EV maker Rivian made up the bottom three.

In IMD’s rankings of financial services, Mastercard was rated the most future-ready firm, followed by Visa, JPMorgan Chase & Company, Paypal and Singapore’s DBS Bank.

China’s Ping An Insurance, the only other Asia-headquartered firm on the list, ranked 12, down five places from the previous year.

American Express ranked last, followed by American International Group and Credit Suisse.

Yu said Asian players in finance had significant room for growth.

“Finance requires deep customisation in each region,” he said. “A great example is how DBS continues to rank highly among global banks, despite their relatively smaller volume compared to their Western counterparts.

“The key is to leverage open innovation … and to partner with other fintech disruptors. This is how top-ranking financial companies stay nimble and efficient, as they scale.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
 
Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022. Gold & Silver Win for Tesla

Looking at the monthly best seller table, the Model Y once again won the title, its 3rd in a row. This is the first time the crossover beat its sedan sibling during a whole quarter.

This is the result of two trends. First, Model Y deliveries continued to surge, having reached 92,221 units in March, a new all-time record for an EV. Secondly, the Model 3’s sales have been flattening, proven by the fact that the midsizer’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 were up by only one percent compared to the same period last year.



1651973381964.png


In the second best month ever for the global plugin vehicle market, record scores were plentiful, with 9 out of the top 20 best sellers having record scores.



1651973587686.png



Tesla in #1​

In March, the top two brands scored record results, with Tesla getting 180,000 registrations and BYD close to 105,000 registrations — the first time we have two brands hitting 6-digit scores at the same time.


1651973744961.png


cleantechnica.com

Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022 (Charts)

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 60% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. There were 851,000 registrations, the second best month ever, representing 15% share of the overall auto market (11% BEV share), which
cleantechnica.com cleantechnica.com
 
JohnDe said:
Top 20 Electric Cars In The World — March 2022. Gold & Silver Win for Tesla

Looking at the monthly best seller table, the Model Y once again won the title, its 3rd in a row. This is the first time the crossover beat its sedan sibling during a whole quarter.

This is the result of two trends. First, Model Y deliveries continued to surge, having reached 92,221 units in March, a new all-time record for an EV. Secondly, the Model 3’s sales have been flattening, proven by the fact that the midsizer’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2022 were up by only one percent compared to the same period.
Click to expand...
Then you get articles like this. Sometimes you wonder if the big advertisers put pressure on the reporters, oh look Tesla can't supply a car, but if you chose a Toyota or a Porsche (VW) no problems. ?
www.drive.com.au

Tesla electric car sales hit the brakes in April

After a strong start to the year, Tesla sales evaporated last month as the company joined the long list of car manufacturers impacted by severe stock shortages.
www.drive.com.au www.drive.com.au

Tesla electric car sales hit the brakes in Australia last month, according to official VFACTS industry data released this week.
Just 52 examples of the Model 3 sedan were reported as sold in April 2022, a fraction compared to the 3097 reported as sold the month prior.
For reference, market leader Toyota delivered 17,956 vehicles during the same 30-day period and Porsche reported 481 cars as sold.
 
Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price curve which contains four turning dates extending out towards the end of June. May 12th could turn out to be Low which is the first date on the curve then all of the other projected dates are covered . There are three important price levels to watch *410 416 and 425 which are quite close so if we can hold above the 12th May swing Low trend should move up into point X where there are two prices indicated for top . will update over the next few days Regards Student of Gann twitter
 

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Here is some more analysis on Tesla :

By studying past Market movements we are able to get a line on what to expect in the future . History repeats in the lives of Men and also in Financial Markets . Gann states that every movement in the Market is the result of a Natural Law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past as the Bible plainly states . Here is a recent Forecast I completed for Tesla including bar chart and price Curve extending out towards the end of June containing four turning dates and other important price levels .

TSLA :
On the 26th January 2021 Tesla made top at 900 and ran down to the 6th March 539 low a move of 360 points in 39 days or a rate of 9.25 points per day. From here price moved up 241 points in the same time period as the previous swing down a rate of 6.17 points per day . The first range down was a full circle in price and it is also interesting to note the upswing was 241 points or 2/3rd of the circle . Quite often ranges will balance against the divisions of the circle such as 90 120 and 180 which are important price points especially if these ranges align with important Time Cycles. From the 14th April counter trend top price ran down 234 points in 35 days which closely balances against the time period of the previous swing down measuring 39 days . By comparing the price amplitude and time period of prior swings within the trend structure we are able to compare this data against the current position of the market and look for repeating patterns - this is what Gann referred to as form reading which is a very important foundation skill required to correctly interpret market structure . If we compare these measurements to the current trend structure we can see some similarities . Firstly the the move up from the 25th Feb 700 low up till the 1152 5th April top measures 452 points in 39 days a gain of 64% compared to the previous percentage increase of 44% so by comparing these two percentage increases we can see that the second range up overbalanced price but the time periods for both swings were balanced exactly at 39 calendar days from trough to peak . In 2021 there was a higher low on the 19th May at 546 which was 35 days down from the 14th April Top a decline of 234 points and from that point Tesla began the Bull campaign with Top culminating on the 5th November at 1243.
Currently we are down around 563 points from the 1243 High or about 45% compared against the previous drop into 539 6th March 2021 Low which measured 40% so we have exceeded that price swing in terms of percentage decrease . In the recent structure there are three important swings down - the first is from the 5th Nov 1243 Top which is 357 points down in 47 days moving at a rate of 7.5 points per day - the second swing down is from the 5th Jan 1208 Top which is 508 points down in 57 days moving at a rate of 8.9 points per day - then the current swing down from the 5th April Top which is presently 472 points down and 37 days in time up o the current date which is moving down at a rate of 12.75 points per day. By studying these ranges we can see the largest decline was 508 points and we are presently down 472 points so we have not balanced against that particular range at the present time - the first range down was 357 points which we have exceeded so these measurements can assist us in determining the potential amplitude of future price swings in conjunction with other factors but the main consideration is Time and when sufficient Time has expired and the Cycle is complete both space and volume should increase causing either Top or Bottom in the market.

studentofgann.com.au
 

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Thanks for that Gann; the 'points' you refer to repeatadly above we can all 'safely' assume are US dollars?

Oh and yeah.... on my reading of the 'Bible' ( King James? ) unplainly states a lot things. And the future may be repetition and fossil fuel epoch may be repeated, but 300-500 million years is a fair while to wait and see.

For other readers check TSLA 's trailing 12months P/E... Gross margins... Cost of goods sold ... forward orders .... hallelujah and pass the ammunition. And ahh hopfully that's like 4680's out the end of a gattling gun. Not that far from the 'ole Alamo' ...
 
A bit closer to home... A Tesla that was on auto-pilot has stopped peak hour traffic in Melbourne after it crashed over a barrier in Docklands. (driver says 3 years in a tesla never had a problem lol, looks like his time was up , or maybe the car recorded too much of his driving data and had a memory/data overload :) Computer says no.. lol..Cant imagine any parent want to use Tesla after this incident.
 
bluekelah said:
lol..Cant imagine any parent want to use Tesla after this incident.
Click to expand...


Why? ICE cars with human drivers crash all the time.

In fact, the stats show that Teslas with autopilot engaged crash less often and have less deaths than cars driven by humans alone.

There will be crashes involving Teslas, there will be lots off them over time just like lots of human drivers crash.

Teslas don’t have to be perfect, they just have to be better than humans.
 
In case you forgot humans crash cars too, here is a compilation of videos showing human drivers crashing, of course none of them would make the news because humans crash so regularly it’s not news worthy. But any crash involving autopilot will probably make the news.

 
Value Collector said:
Why? ICE cars with human drivers crash all the time.

In fact, the stats show that Teslas with autopilot engaged crash less often and have less deaths than cars driven by humans alone.

There will be crashes involving Teslas, there will be lots off them over time just like lots of human drivers crash.

Teslas don’t have to be perfect, they just have to be better than humans.
Click to expand...
Are you sure those statistics do not include DRUNK DRIVERS or those under influence or those who have a stroke or heart attack or those who are severely fatigued after driving for hours?? I havent read the details myself but I am very sure those stats are not what they are claimed to be.

you have to compare a Normal alert person driving with Autopilot Vs Normal alert human alone causing a crash without other confounding factors..

IMO Teslas autopilot DOES have to be perfect. Coz the tendency for human drivers to disengage or get distracted just after a short period driving and not doing anything is very very high. You need to assume every driver with autopilot on is and will be asleep at the wheel at some stage, even if their hands are on it. So if a car manufacturer is going to make such a feature they damn well have to make sure it works 100% of the time.

If the Teslas are crashed by drunk drivers or speedsters going over the speed limits and cause a statistic thats just par for course.

But if we are gonna get normal healthy drivers who are safe drivers crash their Teslas becoz of autopilot going bad, then the autopilot does need closer scrutiny. (thats why despite all the fanfare etc.. Teslas are still stuck on level 2 )
 
bluekelah said:
Are you sure those statistics do not include DRUNK DRIVERS or those under influence or those who have a stroke or heart attack or those who are severely fatigued after driving for hours?? I havent read the details myself but I am very sure those stats are not what they are claimed to be.
Click to expand...
I am sure those situations are included in both auto pilot and non autopilot situations, if fact if a driver is going to be drunk or have a stroke or be severely fatigued I hope that the do have autopilot engaged for their safety and mine.

Thats actually an argument for autopilot, because as you have pointed out humans can be un reliable for a number of reasons.

you have to compare a Normal alert person driving with Autopilot Vs Normal alert human alone causing a crash without other confounding factors..
Click to expand...

Thats the whole point, two heads are better than one, autopilot will prevent crashes humans normally cause, and the alert person can prevent autopilot crashing, In Australia Teslas are not "full autopilot" updated yet, the driver is meant to be monitoring it, and be ready to take over.

IMO Teslas autopilot DOES have to be perfect. Coz the tendency for human drivers to disengage or get distracted just after a short period driving and not doing anything is very very high
Click to expand...

Why does it have to be perfect? it just has to be better than humans.

For example if on average humans cause a crash that results in a death every 100,000 miles, but auto pilot caused a crash every 500,000 miles, thats a huge improvement.


. You need to assume every driver with autopilot on is and will be asleep at the wheel at some stage, even if their hands are on it. So if a car manufacturer is going to make such a feature they damn well have to make sure it works 100% of the time.
Click to expand...

Current version of autopilot do not say that you can sleep, it clearly says you need to be alert.

However, drivers even without auto pilot suffer from "micro sleeps" that cause accidents, and you would be much safer in that situation with autopilot on.



But if we are gonna get normal healthy drivers who are safe drivers crash their Teslas becoz of autopilot going bad, then the autopilot does need closer scrutiny. (thats why despite all the fanfare etc.. Teslas are still stuck on level 2 )
Click to expand...

I can't see how that could happen, an alert driver with autopilot on would just take over. only a distracted Tesla driver would crash, but then again a distracted Tesla driver is far less likely to crash than a distracted non autopilot car.
 

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