TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[JohnDe]

Last years article but just as relevant, if not more so -

Tesla
In 2020, Tesla’s gross revenue was $31.5 billion and its net revenue was $721 million. Its 2020 gross margin was 21%.

General Motors
$122 billion and its net revenues earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $9.7 billion. Its gross margin was 11.2%.

Ford
2020 net revenues EBIT were $2.8 billion and its 2020 gross margin were 11.3%

And that’s not all. Not only do Ford and GM have more debt than Tesla, but Tesla’s market cap is much larger than both of theirs combined.

When you compare the data for a company that is new and growing at incredible speeds to data from two other companies in the same field that have at least 100 years on the new company, it shows that Tesla is conserving its funds for growth and operations while the other two are having to spend billions on paying back debts.

Analysis: Tesla Has Much Less Debt Than Ford & GM, & Much Higher Gross Margin - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! By Johnna Crider and Daryl Elliott I was recently given some detailed research by Daryl Elliott, who discovered that Tesla has less debt than Ford or GM. All three are American automakers and last ...

cleantechnica.com

 

[bluekelah]

I was first a Tesla sceptic, I then cautiously dipped my tow in the TSLA market about 18 months ago and have kept cautiously topping up on the lows.
My views on the company have drastically change, I believe that it is an amazing company, I even purchased a M3LR. However, I am still cautious, as everyone should be.
A meteoric rise can easily turn into a fall, but I do doubt the possibility as TESLA finish building the factories and the realisation of the death of ICE vehicles is realised.

My biggest fear is the big car companies - Toyota, VW, Ford getting together to supercharge production and sale of a quality cheap EV. Yes I know a long shot but it is possible.
Another fear is China, it's well know that they want to be a world EV manufacturer and they are not shy in hobbling competition. Will China continue their 'business as usual' with Tesla, or will they give priority to their own manufacturers?

Regulators summon Tesla over consumers’ quality complaints, urged to follow laws - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Its already happening, in Europe some markets the european EV makers like VW and others have overtaken Tesla in some countries. Take this example from netherlands
Top 10 year-to-dateoctober data)

1. Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 3,734
2. Skoda Enyaq iV - 3,619
3. Volvo XC40 PHEV - 2,540
4. Ford Mustang Mach-E - 2,261
5. Volkswagen ID.4 - 1,993
6. Ford Kuga PHEV - 1,975
7. Tesla Model 3 - 1,482
8. BMW iX3 - 1,386
9. Lynk & Co 01 PHEV - 1,241
10. Volvo XC40 Recharge - 1,203

IN USA we have Rivian and Ford with the new EV trucks getting all the news and fanfare. I think the Ford F150 lightning truck has already surpassed 160k reservation. Ford share price has since 4x this year from that.

In China, there are many new EV startups(Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto are all challenging Tesla) and now battery makers too. Only reason they let Tesla in was to copy the tech, now they have done so, they have a plethora of local EVs gaining sales fast and in some segments may outsell TEsla soon.

Tesla will likely prosper and grow together with the EV market but likely will experience some degree of margin compression. Unlike Apple which doesnt make their own phones, Tesla has to make their own cars, and there is no software platform to leverage off where you can sell software or subscriptions like on itunes/appstore. Teslas AI self driving tech is not really making much progress and still on the same level 2 grade as other car makers last time i looked.

And now with fed tapering the easy money and elon selling hard, i am not sure the market cap valuation can continue to be trillion dollars.

 

[mullokintyre]

Tesla
In 2020, Tesla’s gross revenue was $31.5 billion and its net revenue was $721 million. Its 2020 gross margin was 21%.

Gross Margin= whats left after taking in the COGS. It does not include all the admin overheads like marketing, non manufacturing staff, and debt interest costs.

General Motors
$122 billion and its net revenues earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $9.7 billion. Its gross margin was 11.2%.

Ford
2020 net revenues EBIT were $2.8 billion and its 2020 gross margin were 11.3%

And that’s not all. Not only do Ford and GM have more debt than Tesla, but Tesla’s market cap is much larger than both of theirs combined.

When you compare the data for a company that is new and growing at incredible speeds to data from two other companies in the same field that have at least 100 years on the new company, it shows that Tesla is conserving its funds for growth and operations while the other two are having to spend billions on paying back debts.

I did a bit of head scratching over this one.

How did they come up with the gross margin of 21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?
I went looking for more information and found the last ten years financials for all three companies.
If you look at the financial statements for each of them TESLA , General Motors , and Ford
I could not correlate the figures the analyst quoted for any of them.
There are two ways to fund a company, issue shares or negotiate debt, or do a combo of both.
Perhaps if one did a comparison of the EPS between tesla and the other two, one get an entirely different picture.
This is the first year that tesla has had a positive EPS at 64 CPS.
All previous years were negative returns.
Ford made a loss this year , its EPS was a negative 32CPS.
But every year prior to this it had a positive EPS.
GM this year had one if its better years with a positive eps of $4.33.Its last negative EPS was in 2016, all the others were positve.
You can draw numerous pictures from the above, as I currently don't plan to invest in any of them, I will draw none.
Mick

 

[rederob]

How did they come up with the gross margin of 21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?

The best comparison of apples with apples is here.
Comparisons are otherwise problematic as Tesla has Boring, Energy and Space X, while GM makes more from its vehicle financing arms.
Bottom line: Tesla is now a cash cow compared to GM:

That trend will continue as Tesla has no legacy issues to contend with and only improves its already class leading product, while the GMs and Fords of the world have nothing close in performance or quality.
The other issue that will see Tesla streak ahead is its planning for battery needs to match its proposed production.

 

[bluekelah]

The best comparison of apples with apples is here.
Comparisons are otherwise problematic as Tesla has Boring, Energy and Space X, while GM makes more from its vehicle financing arms.
Bottom line: Tesla is now a cash cow compared to GM:
View attachment 134531
That trend will continue as Tesla has no legacy issues to contend with and only improves its already class leading product, while the GMs and Fords of the world have nothing close in performance or quality.
The other issue that will see Tesla streak ahead is its planning for battery needs to match its proposed production.

well lets see how the boxing match between F150 lightning Vs. Cybertruck Vs Chevy Silverado goes. Bring on the truck wars!!

 

[JohnDe]

Its already happening, in Europe some markets the european EV makers like VW and others have overtaken Tesla in some countries. Take this example from netherlands
Top 10 year-to-dateoctober data)

1. Kia Niro EV (e-Niro) - 3,734
2. Skoda Enyaq iV - 3,619
3. Volvo XC40 PHEV - 2,540
4. Ford Mustang Mach-E - 2,261
5. Volkswagen ID.4 - 1,993
6. Ford Kuga PHEV - 1,975
7. Tesla Model 3 - 1,482
8. BMW iX3 - 1,386
9. Lynk & Co 01 PHEV - 1,241
10. Volvo XC40 Recharge - 1,203

IN USA we have Rivian and Ford with the new EV trucks getting all the news and fanfare. I think the Ford F150 lightning truck has already surpassed 160k reservation. Ford share price has since 4x this year from that.

In China, there are many new EV startups(Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto are all challenging Tesla) and now battery makers too. Only reason they let Tesla in was to copy the tech, now they have done so, they have a plethora of local EVs gaining sales fast and in some segments may outsell TEsla soon.

Tesla will likely prosper and grow together with the EV market but likely will experience some degree of margin compression. Unlike Apple which doesnt make their own phones, Tesla has to make their own cars, and there is no software platform to leverage off where you can sell software or subscriptions like on itunes/appstore. Teslas AI self driving tech is not really making much progress and still on the same level 2 grade as other car makers last time i looked.

And now with fed tapering the easy money and elon selling hard, i am not sure the market cap valuation can continue to be trillion dollars.

Hybrids are a stop gap. What really counts is plug in EV, and don't just look at a model look at the brand. Tesla sells multiple models; the M3, Mx, MY and MS.

What Brand Sells The Most Electric Cars In Europe?

Best-selling plug-in electric vehicle models in Europe between January and September 2021

What Brand Sells The Most Electric Cars In Europe? - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Following up on our report on which automotive groups have been selling the most electric cars across 10 European markets, let’s look at which brands have been seeing the most sales (read: registrations). We...

cleantechnica.com

 

[JohnDe]

Gross Margin= whats left after taking in the COGS. It does not include all the admin overheads like marketing, non manufacturing staff, and debt interest costs.


I did a bit of head scratching over this one.

How did they come up with the gross margin of 21% when net revenue is 721mill on a gross revenue of 31.5billion?
I went looking for more information and found the last ten years financials for all three companies.
If you look at the financial statements for each of them TESLA , General Motors , and Ford
I could not correlate the figures the analyst quoted for any of them.
There are two ways to fund a company, issue shares or negotiate debt, or do a combo of both.
Perhaps if one did a comparison of the EPS between tesla and the other two, one get an entirely different picture.
This is the first year that tesla has had a positive EPS at 64 CPS.
All previous years were negative returns.
Ford made a loss this year , its EPS was a negative 32CPS.
But every year prior to this it had a positive EPS.
GM this year had one if its better years with a positive eps of $4.33.Its last negative EPS was in 2016, all the others were positve.
You can draw numerous pictures from the above, as I currently don't plan to invest in any of them, I will draw none.
Mick

Yes, the accountants do a great job -

FORD

GENERAL MOTORS

TESLA

 

[CityIndex]

Tesla stock has pulled back nearly 28% since hitting its all-time-high in early November, but how much of this is specific to the stock, and how much is a result of the broader market volatility?

The sell-off began when Elon Musk’s Twitter poll supported him in selling 10% of his holdings, but the overall market sentiment since then hasn't helped either. The Omicron variant is sparking fear of a return to lockdowns, while last week also saw a hawkish pivot among the major central banks.

However, Tesla remains the leader in the EV space. This is backed up by their impressive financial growth in recent times, and with tech that is still superior to their competitors, they would be expected to continue to dominate the industry for the foreseeable future.

With $TSLA closing today below the key $900 level, it’ll be interesting to see how it shapes up over the coming weeks. Of course, all trading carries risk, but can the stock bounce from here, or are we going to have to wait before it starts another leg higher?

 

[sptrawler]

There is a lot of chatter online about competitors EV products, especially the U.S and China where Tesla has had a major lead, punters are probably getting nervous about Tesla's ability to hold it's leading position.
Today Nio is talking of a Tesla model 3 style vehicle the ET5 with a 1,000klm range, very improbable IMO, but still worrying for investors.
What will be interesting will be if Tesla can beat China on price, most other manufacturers can't and as yet Tesla can't rely on its legacy as Ford, Porsche, BMW, Merc etc can.

Nio unveils ET5 electric sedan with "ultra-long range" of up to 1,000km

Nio unveils another so-called "Tesla-killer", and plans to expand further into Europe as it opens up the Silk Road for battery swapping and charging.

thedriven.io

 

[JohnDe]

More than once I have seen surveys that show graduating engineers putting Tesla on the top of their list of preferred laces to work. How many ICE manufacturers can say that?

 

[sptrawler]

Space X getting in the news, for all the wrong reasons, sounds like the orbiting satellites have an auto pilot issue also. ?

Elon Musk's SpaceX satellites catch heat in China over close calls with space station

Elon Musk's rocky year in China is ending on another sour note.

edition.cnn.com

 

[JohnDe]

This will be an interesting week for TSLA shares; will the price drop or increase?

Tesla sold everything that they could produce, including demo models and all other stock.

Q4 Production: 305,840
Q4 Deliveries: 308,600

2021 Production: 930,422
2021 Deliveries: 936,172

On Sunday, we received the Q4 2021 production and delivery report from electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). The company was expected to finish the year strong, primarily thanks to the Shanghai factory ramp. Tesla did just that, coming in with its best quarter ever, while also proving that wall street analyst estimates may not be worth watching anymore.

Tesla Stock: Analysts Whiff Again (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla's Q4 deliveries beat unrealistically low estimates. Check out why I think TSLA's revenue estimates will rise until its Q4 report.

seekingalpha.com

 

[noirua]

Tesla (TSLA) Receives a Sell from J.P. Morgan​

03/01/2022 7:30am GMT​

TipRanks​

In a report released today, Ryan Brinkman from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Tesla (TSLA – Research Report), with a price target of $295.00. The company's shares closed last Friday at $1056.78. According to TipRanks.com, Brinkman is a 2-star analyst with an average return of 0.6% and a 62.1% success rate. Brinkman covers the Industrial Goods sector, focusing on stocks such as Dana Holding, BorgWarner, and Autoliv. The word on The Street in general, suggests a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating for Tesla with a $1030.08 average price target.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurb...rgan?utm_source=advfn.com&utm_medium=referral

 

[noirua]

Tesla soars 7% after crushing delivery and production numbers (NASDAQ:TSLA)

How will Tesla (TSLA) fare in 2021? Well, the latest blowout numbers from the company sent its stock up 7% premarket to $1,130, before the first trading day of the year

seekingalpha.com

Live Price Chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...idth=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240

 

[Dona Ferentes]

make that up 12.8% on the US market overnight

 

[JohnDe]

Deutsche Bank said the company is better equipped to face semiconductor bottlenecks than its peers. It raised its Q4 revenue forecast to $17.2 billion from $16.1 billion and its EPS expectation to $2.70 from $2.46.

Who purchased during the 2-3 wen dip?

Tesla's 'Impressive' Q4 Deliveries Suggest Upside Potential for 2022, Deutsche Bank Says

Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA reported an "impressive" delivery count of 308,600 for Q4, Deutsche Bank said in a note. The deliveries surpassed the investment firm's estimate of 282,000, which was already up from the consensus estimate of 265,000 deliveries, according to the note. Deutsche Bank said the compan…

www.tradingview.com

 

[orr]

I keep some entries with projections/guess's;
Gali Russell on 19/12/2020 gave unit production for 4th qtr at 300k and total for 2021 at 935k ...
credit where credits due..

Been a couple of good long form sit downs with Dave Lee in the last couple of weeks, not least with James Douma.

 

[JohnDe]

I keep some entries with projections/guess's;
Gali Russell on 19/12/2020 gave unit production for 4th qtr at 300k and total for 2021 at 935k ...
credit where credits due..

Been a couple of good long form sit downs with Dave Lee in the last couple of weeks, not least with James Douma.

Thanks for the name, my search lead me to -

 

[JohnDe]

Tesla has been tracing a well know bearish pattern, the head and shoulders. It has broken the neckline and is at the typical 'throwback' or 'retest'. There are a couple of ways to play this but i like 'looking inside the bars' and determining what the market structure tells me could be the best entries and stop locations.

To do this i use volume profile on an intra-day chart.

Examples of two ways to play this as a swing trade:
You can clearly see on the price action above the gap we have a double distribution pattern. Statistically the lower half of the distribution usually gets a re-test more than 50% of the time, so 215.98 becomes our aggressive entry. The stop is placed above the value area of the higher distribution. If we prefer to wait for more downward price action then a more 'conservative' entry could actually be the gap play, with a stop above the low volume node at 215.29

The target area for this pattern is around the 149.75 area, which is a measured move from the high, to the 'neckline' and also coincides with a prior VWAP. These prior areas of 'value' are almost 'magnetic' targets.

Trade it well....

There's been talk of another share split for months, this guy gives the reasons why there will be another -

 

[orr]

Mr Johnde...
On Gali..I'd only add the almost rhetorical... 'past preformance is no indication. ...etc.etc.'

Again and again from a multipul of those on this; the major upside/downside for 2022 is the inhouse 4680.
Toward the end of 22 the rollout of insurance( rhumored 6 extra states this qtr) .. worth keeping an eye on to.