TSI - Transfield Services Infrastructure

[So_Cynical]

(13th-August-2010)Took my own advise today and entered TSI @ $0.61 .. sold out of VRL, added a little extra capital and plonked it all on TSI, happy to hold till it comes good.

(13th-August-2010) When do you anticipate it's going to 'come good'? It has been in a solid downtrend for three years!
No wonder the dividend is so high when you consider the debt level and the diminishing DPS and EPS!

Hey Julia...did you happen to notice today's intra day high of 0.675 and close of 0.67 ? looks like it took 5 weeks to "come good" assuming that you would consider 10% in 5 weeks "good" i certainly do.

I've done very well with some of my stocks following your lead of holding onto my winners and letting them run (HDF up 66% TRY up 31%) so perhaps you could also have some success with following my lead and trying a little bottom picking?

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The year to date chart below would seem to indicate a slight up trend has begun, certainly the longest running up trend TSI has seen in over a year, for mine the volume bars would seem to confirm the change in sentiment/trend...others may have there own opinion. :dunno:
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[exgeo]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Not sure where I should post this, but I like the look of the chart of TSI, Transfield Services Infrastructure. 8.2c div for FY11 forecast as well. Been going down for ages, now consistently going up. End of technical analysis!

 

[pedalofogus]

Thanks for the chart exgeo.

This company really should be on the move up. Investor sentiment was smashed when they announced the capital raising, and it was always going to take a long time to come back.

That seems to be happening slowly now. It certainly seems to be undervalued by the market, so there should be some capital growth over the coming years. The yield is also very attractive (even if it isn't as attractive as it used to be). The yield could also be boosted by any distributions from LYA, which haven't been factored in anywhere at present.

There is also some potential for this to be a takeover target IMO.

Pedalofogus

 

[So_Cynical]

Surprising to see the SP fall so sharply on Friday :dunno: back down to 0.62 intra day, really surprising considering we are only a week or so away from the ex date 24th Dec, and really really surprising since the Distribution Guidance announcement on Thursday confirmed the distribution to be 0.041 (assuming operating conditions are in line with expectations. )

http://www.tsinfrastructurefund.com/icms_docs/84905_FY11_Interim_Distribution_Guidance_and_DRP.pdf

TSI looks to be the dividend/distribution play of the week at these prices. i mite even double dip :dunno: as i really should be doing a second entry about now...my biggest mistake over the last 8 months has been not selling at 9 or 10% its prob cost me 2 or 3 grand, waiting for the 15 or 17% that just never came.
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[So_Cynical]

i mite even double dip :dunno: as i really should be doing a second entry about now.

Today TSI was just too tempting, especially after the half yearly report the other day confirmed guidance for the coming half and overall wasn't to bad a report....considering the nature of the business etc....so i had a little average down/top up today at 0.59

Half year highlights, half on corresponding half.

• EBITDA up 11.9%
• On track to meet FY11 earnings guidance of $104 million
• Net debt and gearing down 2.5% (approx)
• Cash headroom of $38.8 mill (Cash & Facility's)

Sure they have some issues to work thru and some challenges ahead and that is reflected in the SP and yield..and that just cant last, with today's low of 0.58 cents the yield is well over 13%

http://www.tsinfrastructurefund.com/icms_docs/88528_2011_Half_Year_Results__Presentation.pdf

 

[So_Cynical]

It certainly seems to be undervalued by the market, so there should be some capital growth over the coming years.

There is also some potential for this to be a takeover target IMO.

Pedalofogus

Pedalofogus made the call 6 months ago....and today came this Announcement.

"Transfield Services Infrastructure Fund receives indicative, conditional and nonbinding
approach from Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding PCL"

http://www.tsinfrastructurefund.com...haburi_Electricity_Generating_Holding_PCL.pdf

The 85 cents per share offer was responsible for today's 28.46% SP jump and more than likely mostly responsible for the 51%+ turn around in the TSI share price over the last 3 or so weeks. (and i bet no one gets prosecuted)

(7th-August-2010) While it would be terrible to have been holding TSI from the float in mid 2007 at $2.10 all the way down to 64 cents today...it just goes to show just how important timing really is when it comes to entry, and perhaps now is a great time for entry, debt ratio down to 51% etc...looking at the all data chart there's only 2 great entry opportunity's, Feb-Mar 09 and nowish.

(13th-August-2010) Took my own advise today and entered TSI @ $0.61 .. sold out of VRL, added a little extra capital and plonked it all on TSI, happy to hold till it comes good and collect distributions along the way.

(18th-February-2011) Today TSI was just too tempting, especially after the half yearly report the other day confirmed guidance for the coming half and overall wasn't to bad a report....considering the nature of the business etc....so i had a little average down/top up today at 0.59

I'm going to hold until the SP hits 87 cents or the take over is completed, i need to hold my TSI shares until the 5 of Sept to get the CGT discount on my first parcel (the biggest parcel) also need to sell in the coming financial year as this years tax bill is already bigger than expected.

One of the often under estimated pluses of diversification is the fact that ya never know what's around the corner and the more diverse your portfolio is the more potential you get to exposure of the unexpected, and if your stock selection is good and your buy in price/s are low then the greater the unexpected and expected upside is....i reckon.

Chart below of my TSI activities.
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[So_Cynical]

(13th-August-2010) Took my own advise today and entered TSI @ $0.61 .. sold out of VRL, added a little extra capital and plonked it all on TSI, happy to hold till it comes good and collect distributions along the way, TSI yielding over 13% at today's share price, and fundamentally in good shape with the recent capital raising, debt extension and asset sale.

With hindsight it turns out i would of been better off keeping this money in VRL, oh well i sold almost all of the above parcel of shares today at 0.825 a 38%+ gross profit for holding almost 9 months....ill let the rest of my holding go in the takeover.

Winner #51 lifted my all trades expectancy from 0.63 to 0.67 winning trade %: 82.26% :grinsking

 

[So_Cynical]

The TSI takeover is now complete and i can report the following profits on the final sale of my remaining 3 parcels of shares.

• 34.53% Profit on my initial buy in
• 37.80% Profit on my first and only average down
• 55.47% Profit on my first and only dividend reinvestment

All in all a very satisfactory outcome. imp:
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[skc]

The TSI takeover is now complete and i can report the following profits on the final sale of my remaining 3 parcels of shares.

• 34.53% Profit on my initial buy in
• 37.80% Profit on my first and only average down
• 55.47% Profit on my first and only dividend reinvestment

All in all a very satisfactory outcome. imp:
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Great trade. Too bad you couldn't get the 12month CGT discount.