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TRO - TriAusMin Limited

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Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

TRO rose 13% today during a bloodbath, bouncing back to its high on Monay without news, and despite the directors assuring the ASX on Monday they had no idea why the price was rising so dramatically.

Curious.
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

now is that a pennant or is that a pennant?
 

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Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

still fluttering...but which way?
 

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Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

i do pete, and have my money where my mouth is the share has dropped a lot but on pretty low volume (and there was a big fall in zinc too). The PFS is due soon which, in my opinion, should be positive given there was an existing mine - and now TRO are going to be using new technology. Major problem for buyers is the lowish volumes make it difficult to build a sizable holding.
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Hi punter,

I must say i have been in and out of this one, currently not holding (made a tidy 25% profit). The main support on this share lies on the 1.05 mark.

Base purely on the momentum, this share is going only one way and that is down. It is down even on an up market like today. the MACD just crossed below the 0 line which looks bearish to me and the MACD is on a downward trend since early Jan. I would wait a little until this share tests the 1.05 mark where the support line is at the moment or when there are signs that this one is going back up.

This one is a funny trading one. The buys and sells are all over the place. Good for punters if your willing to do it purely on gamble. However, these are only my opinions.

Good luck to thsoe who has bought in.

Anyone with fundamentals on this one?????? Haven't really looks at it fundamentally.

Hypnotic,
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

the fundamentals are great...read the start of the thread..the fundamentals haven't changed since the big metal find
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

stoxclimber said:
Broker report released valuing TRO at $2.86 per share

http://www.mpsecurities.com.au/pubs/pdf/2007/TROReportFeb07.pdf
Click to expand...

Thanks for digging out the report Stoxclimber, looks very good. I have been considering jumping back in after seeing the strong rebound at around 1.20 at the 28th Feb when the market crashed.

Looking more solid now around the 1.27 mark.

Hypnotic
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

hey hyp

I think TRO is a good buy [I would since I have it myself..] although there are two issues with it at the moment:
- large bid/ask spread and small volumes on offer make it difficult to build a holding [depends on the size you are investing of course]
- unlikely to move much until the PFS is released [ supposed to be this quarter]

Personally wish to buy more but no spare cash at the moment..may have to rebalance the portfolio.
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Gee if a good PFS is released this share has the potential to do anything.

I like it's prospects so I've loaded up today

Good luck to all longs.

DYOR
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

This is a dangerous share to be in. Don't believe the hype. They really don't appear to have the resources they say. I wouldn't be surprised to see this back at 20 cents shortly.

Buyer beware!!
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

stormfighter said:
This is a dangerous share to be in. Don't believe the hype. They really don't appear to have the resources they say. I wouldn't be surprised to see this back at 20 cents shortly.

Buyer beware!!
Click to expand...
Can you please expand on this a little stormfighter? More analysis and justification of posts required here mate. Cheers.
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Kennas.

Remember when this broke out from a long stage 1 in november.
I think ERO is doing something very similar.
Looks at the charts and volume for comparison.

Id be keen to hear your thoughts
(though maybe the ERO thread is a more appropriate place)
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

main difference being that TRO had a clearly identifiable in ground mineral value and was ridiculously undervalued for that value whereas ERO has no such quanitified resource...
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Guys,

In reference to the annoucement today:

If we very conservatively assume that out of a 10.1Mt @ 16.9% zinc equiv TRO mines 80kt of zinc concentrate @ 50% zinc for 8 years at a zinc price of $3000/t, $40m mine cost (financed 50/50 debt equity), with an EBIDTA marign of 55.4% (average of ZFX KZL and PEM), gives a share value of $2.04 (12% discount rate)

Will post detailed numbers when I have time in a couple days, can also send the model to anyone if itnerested (dont think I can upload here?)
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Will post detailed numbers when I have time in a couple days, can also send the model to anyone if itnerested (dont think I can upload here?)
Click to expand...
Uploading excel files works fine - just link them to your post. The size limit on excel files is about 250k from memory.
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Oh, thanks doctorj.

Model is attached.
 

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Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

I'm looking for a long term play say at least 5 years. Do you recommend TRO on this basis. The announcement seemed to disappoint the market but do you feel that is only a short term thing?

Thanks
 
Re: TRO - Tri Origin Minerals

Well stalk, imo the market was basically neutral on this annoucement evidenced in the volume.. a few holders out there were dissapointed that the PFS wasn't more detailed and sold off, while others saw the few investors selling and thought the short term prospects of the share price going up were bad so jumped out as well..overall there havent been very many shares changing hands (yesterday 200K out of 80mil, today was 150-200 if i recall). I'm expecting a further annoucement soon with the actual details, this annoucement seems like it was rushed out in order to fit into the Q1 2007 deadline.


In terms of TRO being a 5 years investment:
While the model suggests TRO is quite undervalued, this of course will depend on your views on the future zinc price (and to an extent TRO's other metals like copper). If you think the mining boom will end pretty soon then TRO isnt a great investment as its cash is going to come 2009-2016 and beyond, and will depend on the metal prices then. Another factor to consider is how much you are investing - if you are making a large investment its difficult to buy shares in TRO as ask stack is usally pretty bare.
 
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