Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the XJO with CFDs

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pink floyd, sample that !
closed all at 7276
thanks
have xauusd trender needs attention, palladium not far beind
ref:
xauusd 280921 poss uhoh level.png
 
I’m all out too at my target of 7265. It was a great ride down- glad you bagged some coins.
 
thekingboss said:
does any look at client sentiment on ig as a tool to trade?
Click to expand...
My account, when it was active, was with CMC. They had something similar to the IG client sentiment tool.

Best thing to do is to ignore it, unless you want to be like "most" others. Quote from this ASIC document:

ASIC reviews in 2017, 2019 and 2020 found that most retail clients lose money trading CFDs.
Click to expand...

KH
 
thekingboss said:
does any look at client sentiment on ig as a tool to trade?
Click to expand...
g'day tkb

not with ig, am using cmc
i use the sentiment as an extreme counter-intuitive tool
like any tool best applied with repeatable context
in other words does it fit the picture(?)

when price is trending we expect to see more players and more capital in the direction of the trend
...this is very rare

we should expect to see more players as a % of both positional and capital placed
these are two different things, amount of player in total divided by 2 and amount of capital placed divided by 2

and relative to two groups: all-retail and top-clients

lets say we have a clean turn from an upleg to a downleg,
at that turn the liquidity is around 60% positions and 60% capital (in both groups, which are usually in the same ball park % wise)
- theyre Buy To Open (that means 40% of players are Sell To Open with 40% of available capital in STO positions)

after a couple of days of strong distribution, pricing south, the bargain hunters are out
all-retail is now 80% BTO with 75% of the available cap in BTO positions
we can say this is typical bargain hunting based on the prior larger direction (up)
top-clients are less enamoured
theyre more likely to reflect why theyre in the "top-clients" list
theyre more likely to be 70% BTO with 65% available cap in BTO positions

both groups are on the wrong side, the trend south has only just begun, theyre buying the ever-giving discount

what %, of both groups, are with the price that's printing?

in this instance, the % of players who are with the price that's printing:
20% of all-retail are in STO positions with 25% of the available cap in STO positions
top-clients have a total number, as a % of players, at 30% in STO postions with 35% available cap in STO position

those players are on the right side of the trade

it's not important that its the same players (we dont know whom they are...)
what is important is the constant driving % on either side of the trade

this is an art and a (not exact) science, rather this is an inferrence of bias (by them) observable (by you)
and needs to be constantly given context of when-n-where and by-how-much for how long

all you can do is infer what the other players are doing and what "should" happen next (in the confines of the time bars)

the sentiment for extremes might just stop you from being purposefully dimwitted if nothing else

the extent of which sentiment in a cfd platform is useful can not be clearly defined as there are not
enough parametres for definitive colour by numbers employ

however, if you take the time to watch the wash and notate where n when and in context of trending or coiling or distribution/accumulation zones, then, with time frame as the main consideration, you may find them useful, in the least,
to hint that if everyones one side of the boat when price is printing the opposite way and youre with that group,
you might consider who's on the other side of your trade

there's a lot more to this, sure....... if it merely aids you in not having dimwittery, when employed correctly,
it's a useful tool
...to stop you from becoming a biased useful tool yourself
 
$spx confirms its downchannel

we have a lot of points to go

$xjo overnights printing 7220 (cash close 7332)
 
Modest said:
Eyeballing 7060ish contingent on 7185ish holding as R
Click to expand...
limp lift at the mo, even if we tap 85 we have more downside to come, all retail is in knee deep
xauusd rolling over, continuous contractions across the board, expansion of sell-side liquidity
 
When the trolley got stuck in the mud at 7140 I switched over to ES. No position in ASX at the moment. Probably will pop then tumble down some more stairs
 

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