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Trading the XJO with CFDs

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today looks strong but it's not an elephant bar type where you can set n forget the uptrend
..by taking out todays low, it'll confirm the set-up per the above chart, a truncation move, truncations need confirmation taking out todays cash low would confirm that truncation, the sell will be fairly swift below todays low, a single session doesnt make trend yet it can place context at several levels of trade, shifting liquidity from bid side to offer side, more in relation to how the auction wants to test and retest levels of value (for the $xjo at least)

regardless of the % in price lengths relative to external indexes the $xjo remains a good pre-emptive clue/cue to what those external indexes are likely to do...
 
SML v SPX
in the healthy bull period, when the $spx was not so narrow, the scouts ($SML) led the way for the generals
while this drift of bull signal is not a timing thing it's definitely a signal to keep in mind when looking at context, where to start, tops can be drawn out, there's an election coming in the US, the market decides who wins n who loses, given the above tweet, given the lack of funds into the local market and the lack of follow-thru locally, clearly a lot of deep pockets are shtum on placing capital, while the aussie buck went to "cheap" plenty of liquidity came in an pushed up the locals but now the buck is firming the question you have to ask is how aggressive is the buying versus selling, not very, as per the Twiggs 13 week money flow, caution means stagnancy in liquidity flows, not much on the sell side not much on the bid side until the binary is out of the way and the coming volatility spike(s) done
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dDdUgi5y/
cash printed 6126 implied cash cmc closed 6073 bulls will want to see that pop at mondays open
$dax sits in middle of a major upchannel so i wouldnt bet on that
the side channel in the $xjo implied cash has held, just, structure still leans for the bulls, just, keeping bets small at this point,

($PA) palladium is looking best bet for a downside break-out and there's a clear correlation with $xauusd there on a weekly basis for structure

here's $sml v $spx ...a decade of leadership, ... it made a weekly divergent lower high relative to the $spx, then, post rip south, it has dragged relative to the $spx upto this weeks long tail, while the $spx seeks new altime the $sml has printed another lower weekly low ... #observation
SML v SPX 10y weekly 150820.gif
 
holding more time in sells that buys $xjo, since arguably making a double top (see above post) the index had printed better sell signals than buy signals, now hugging the base of the channel with 83% retail cfd's long, not a great set-up for bids, good set-up for sells, buyers have all the work to do, a lot of head fakes suggest money that matters is leaving
 
$xjo $AUD smashing uphill is going to dictate rebalancing for o/s players, extracting value via inversion

observation
the new normal, the market ($spx) way ahead of itself, thin breadth, brittle things....

spx market getting ahead of itself 290820.png
 
i see people trying to assign "cause = effect"

when major markets, that is the markets whose total cap leads the globe, when they move on endogenous swings the markers are already in place (see above posts) but keep in mind one down day may not trigger a trend unless all the markers clearly point that a continuation the prior (up) direction was not sustainable based on standard health, so looking for triggers is a pointless exercise, otherwise you'd be trading the trigger not the pricing, vastly different techniques and lenses

clearly breadth has been screaming sell for several days, the question is: are traders taking positions based on pricing or based on permission to enter or exit (a trigger)

perma bulls dismiss sell signals, perma bears dismiss buy signals...theyre all in the pricing and the series of pricing, relative size and context of which take a far greater consideration than any trigger
 
Joules MM1 said:
the deep pockets went, oh, that's nice ....and did nothing
View attachment 110785
Click to expand...


Politicians shouldn't be talking these unemployment numbers up for self praise. To me this looks like it is going to be a serious political error because unemployment will increase over the coming months now that Job Keeper is being trimmed. You only need to jump on Seek to see that the job market has been decimated.

I would rather look at GDP and corporate revenue over the unemployment rate at the moment.
 
in the cash for the july high 6198 sell down down to the most recent high at Aug 25th 6199 to this weeks cash implies 5716 = a ratio of 1:1
overnights cash implied hit 5716, faild to go lower, pricing suggested accumulation activity, despite major markets falling lower and their following weak bounces
usually these simple symmetries offer a risk profile, todays sessions fills the idea that the corrective move is complete and we should be in the next leg up, it's a repetitive observation, optimism without the naivety

risk from a larger swing point for the bull perspective is now 5720
 

while o/s markets go thru their gyrations to correct bull trend, locally we appear to be biased upwards
...2 most common death traits for cfd traders: too much on the table and holding overnights without
understanding the context of the hold
the point of the exercise of figuring what the structure of the index is, is two fold:
ignore the informed opinion of what is making a phase or trend
(where we are within the larger trend - that is - what is the relative size of the move + the context of the move
whatever price ideas are that i assign i am cognizent that those ideas are as equal in future-outcomes as they are assignable
in other words, all ideas are active as soon as there is proof of repeatability, not whether one has a smarter point of view or a smarter
style/technique, rather, can we witness what is being repeated and how we frame the activity within the confines of what our technique allows)
and secondly structure allows me to stay "balanced" allowing the structure to inform me that when i am right to run with the price and when i am wrong to exit, this is a wake-up method, otherwise i am prone to "knowing" what's going on whilest being utterly clueless what IS actually unfolding, at which point, i'll have too much on the table, even if it's a small exposure, it's still too much ......
 
today we should get a confirmation the 5762 low is a trend low, a longtail day would add to that, an impulsive bid so far after the sharp sell ...
 

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