xjo is in a large secular bull climb
we are currently, over the next few weeks +/- days, we are in a pullback within the climb that'll set up another major and swift leg upwards, in doing so the pullback has already proven choppy as bids come and support price, hence, no clean run south and plenty of early sellers got smacked in the mouth with divvies so just holding is pertinent in the right phase and obviously the right time....context of placing wide price bets is key
the targets south that are normally reliable will likely be shorter than usual simply due to where we are in the larger monthly and weekly upchannel, supported by an AUD, being smashed all over the park, making aus stocks v. attractive, but, it's too early by about cupla hunj + to get long for the extended ride north
Asia on the bid is good for us more so than the rest of the globe!
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/chart-patterns.15195/page-5
last week
what was interesting to watch was the reversal in retail shorts from an average of 82% to sub 60% when the divvies hit, that doesnt mean shorts closed and longs opened to take advantage of the divvie it means shorts were hit and then probably, most likely, forced to close on margin as is the traditional mantra of retail to oversize especially on the down-view
late last monday i thought we would see sellers step into the last halfa but they failed to show up, few want to let go which is another good sign that the sellside will not be an one-shot wonder
this week
so, too, nearterm sells are not going to be easy peazy with lots of what look like fake lifts until we get to the top of the recent value zone and will have to rely on smallest time frames to get the rotation north
weeks to come
the $SML has made very strong constructive bids north, leading the $SPX ($oex has been an internal drag for the $spx). The current wedge/triangle thing in $spx and $hsi precede a final push north in major bull legs and they are measurable thrusts to come...at least IME these thrusts from tri/wedges tend to occur more often than not and they tend to support a swing back to overconfidence, at the end of those thrusts, in long-side views as major swing tops need to do to burn the happy energy ...
more robust lifts in the US and Asia region will be a good background for our markets trendwise
while i could argue that a strong USD is bad for equities i think locally that is not necessarily true as a weak AUD continues to attract o/s liquidity
looking for signs of life in not-so-sought-after indications esp SDD and SPXU (inverse volume and activity) and a completion of the SPXUDP process ...all of which appear to need one more decent upside leg for complete conviction by bulls (small down swing, larger leg to complete the current bull cycle)
https://www.stocktrader.com/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/
the money wheel merely turns, rather than bull bear ideas as absolutes another idea is to see where liquidity flows
ideas