Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the XJO with CFDs

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retail cfd are 88% sell to open .......all in, not quite, but, obviously convinced south du jour
 
Nice to see the local market finishing at the highs. XJO looking like one big ol basing pattern now. US market looking to make a move out of the triangle. Lets hope its upwards and onwards, hoping for some FOMO. :)
 
Joules MM1 said:
retail cfd are 88% sell to open .......all in, not quite, but, obviously convinced south du jour
Click to expand...

@Joules MM1 Have these retail cfd numbers helped your trading?

Are retail cfd traders really that out of touch with what the markets are doing?
Are they pig-headedly contrarian? Are they trading on emotions?
 
peter2 said:
@Joules MM1 Have these retail cfd numbers helped your trading?

Are retail cfd traders really that out of touch with what the markets are doing?
Are they pig-headedly contrarian? Are they trading on emotions?
Click to expand...

yes and yes

lets say that 50% is hedging and 60% is a tendency 80% is fear or greed, we can say that as the pendulum moves further away the likelyhood that the positioning is emotive logic as opposed to cognitive logic, so long as i respect the levels i set then i can watch the "value" of those levels as price hits

it's purely a contextual exercise ....sometimes the mad crowd is correct so relative size of swings and context play crucial roles
 
xjo daily study double top poss 100518.png

gandering at cash for context build

ideas
 
Hard for the index rally to hard when the constituents within are already near over bought levels.

XAO.png


Buy the break of the high looks too obvious here - I remain neutral at the minute favoring a short term pull back.
 
can we add a little story to this
that on the down days more volume transacted (at the bid), discounted prices by scared money
(someone was buying all the sell volume)
less volume on the up days because no one's chasing, so while in the uplegs price maybe marked up to some extent by the lack of available supply it is clear that volume did not exceed the print

this appears to me to be a good sign of a bull trend puting aside the long whips and pulls the overall weekly upchannel on both indexes looks strong

from a trade perspective as opposed to an investment perspective this is also a bull with a lot of fake runs .....you've got great hair, oh, it's a wig....
ideas
 
sold 6131's front month cfd
stop 39's in cash,
spx driving hard higher globex hours, likely rotate 53's in cash
 
early sellers got hit in the face with divvies and retail cfd's were 82%ish
after being hit and price is with the offer retail are 62% sell
:)
 
xjo is in a large secular bull climb

we are currently, over the next few weeks +/- days, we are in a pullback within the climb that'll set up another major and swift leg upwards, in doing so the pullback has already proven choppy as bids come and support price, hence, no clean run south and plenty of early sellers got smacked in the mouth with divvies so just holding is pertinent in the right phase and obviously the right time....context of placing wide price bets is key

the targets south that are normally reliable will likely be shorter than usual simply due to where we are in the larger monthly and weekly upchannel, supported by an AUD, being smashed all over the park, making aus stocks v. attractive, but, it's too early by about cupla hunj + to get long for the extended ride north
Asia on the bid is good for us more so than the rest of the globe!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/chart-patterns.15195/page-5

last week
what was interesting to watch was the reversal in retail shorts from an average of 82% to sub 60% when the divvies hit, that doesnt mean shorts closed and longs opened to take advantage of the divvie it means shorts were hit and then probably, most likely, forced to close on margin as is the traditional mantra of retail to oversize especially on the down-view
late last monday i thought we would see sellers step into the last halfa but they failed to show up, few want to let go which is another good sign that the sellside will not be an one-shot wonder

this week
so, too, nearterm sells are not going to be easy peazy with lots of what look like fake lifts until we get to the top of the recent value zone and will have to rely on smallest time frames to get the rotation north

weeks to come
the $SML has made very strong constructive bids north, leading the $SPX ($oex has been an internal drag for the $spx). The current wedge/triangle thing in $spx and $hsi precede a final push north in major bull legs and they are measurable thrusts to come...at least IME these thrusts from tri/wedges tend to occur more often than not and they tend to support a swing back to overconfidence, at the end of those thrusts, in long-side views as major swing tops need to do to burn the happy energy ...
more robust lifts in the US and Asia region will be a good background for our markets trendwise

while i could argue that a strong USD is bad for equities i think locally that is not necessarily true as a weak AUD continues to attract o/s liquidity

looking for signs of life in not-so-sought-after indications esp SDD and SPXU (inverse volume and activity) and a completion of the SPXUDP process ...all of which appear to need one more decent upside leg for complete conviction by bulls (small down swing, larger leg to complete the current bull cycle)
https://www.stocktrader.com/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/

spxudp 180518.png

SDD inv SP600 daily 180518.png

the money wheel merely turns, rather than bull bear ideas as absolutes another idea is to see where liquidity flows

ideas
 
the 6123 rotation was an extreme rip overnight used by 'money' to go and kill the weak shorts and that completed that C (2) move hence the reason we did not see it in the cash .....smart @rs little feckers
 
at the initiation of a rotation where the rotation is (probably) a pull within a strong bull cycle it is important to avoid being smacked in the face overnight (because they can and sometimes the LSE prices influence futes) and because divvies

a slo-mo look at how the did that
xjo counting down closer look at ripoff 220518.png
 
How you seeing it J?

Some life back into some of the market leaders (A2M / TWE / BAL) but still work to be done. Banks also looking over done and CBA at key levels might lead to some bounce back short term, especially if the USA catches a bid.

Ultimately though:

- A Reits & Utilities looking to bottom - 'flight to safety'
- Indexes at key resistance level
- AUD holding in/strengthening?
- My indicators nowhere near oversold

Hard to get too excited at this point on a medium term view? Pick the eyes out and nothing more?
 
would like to see a basic puke move south as there has not been an impulsive turnaround locally
both hsi and spx appear to need another swing south to set-up a much larger final bull phase with the current secular cycle .....i guess it comes down to time frame

spx still appears to me to attain 2753 level for a rotation
hard to be precious about either side tho using most of the sessions for coinage
 

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