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Trading the Trend

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Yesterday we had this:



Today:



Much healthier.

Heading towards all time high:



jog on
duc
 
$VIX



Now this is intra-day, so still could change.

We are sitting on support from June. In earnings. This is an opportune time for $VIX to jump higher, which by now we all kinda assume that it means lower for stocks. We can see from the previous post that the intra-index (sectors) can separate. So we could have a situation where rotation takes place: the mega-tech correct lower, the laggards move higher, but the index moves lower. I'll have some charts later that demonstrate this behaviour.

Now along with TSLA reporting tomorrow we have MSFT. Expectations will be far higher for MSFT than for TSLA. Further TSLA is not in the S&P500, whereas MSFT is. I don't know what sort of number makes MSFT go up or down, but if they miss, it could further drive the disconnected type of sector movement we are seeing currently and it could influence the other FAANGs that have yet to report.

jog on
duc
 
Further, such is the speculative power currently of Tech. it is correlating with the US$



A number of commentators have drawn parallels to the dot.com era and the froth. I think there is still plenty of upside, but I also think tech will unhinge from the general market volatility and operate under its own rules re. volatility.



jog on
duc
 
This chap has been (and is) the Bull analyst for TSLA. When he downgrades, hmmm. Could be responsible for the weakness today. Reminds me of the chap in 1998-2000 who pumped AMZN (he was right, but it cost him his job in the end. Name escapes me atm).

Tesla bull and JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha downgraded Tesla stock to Hold Tuesday. Tesla’s stock price run, for this bull, has gone far enough.

Osha deserves some credit, however, for keeping up with Tesla stock’s (ticker: TSLA) epic run. He was an early $1,000-plus price target setter for Tesla shares—going to four digits in March when Tesla shares were below $800. In July, he raised his price target to $1,500 a share when Tesla stock was below $1,400. Instead of raising the price target again ahead of Tesla second-quarter earnings—due Wednesday after the market closes for trading—he downgraded the stock.

“We continue to believe that [Tesla] can become a $100 billion [in sales] car company by 2025, but we cannot arrive at a reasonable basis for arguing that the stock should be valued above current levels, even considering our fundamental outlook,” wrote Osha in a Tuesday research report.




Add them to the list.

jog on
duc

 
I like these current indexes:

with and
ETPMAG on ASX and SLVP in the US are 2 of my parcels which should profit handsomely
Thanks Mr LeDuc for letting me look at silver vs gold a few weeks ago;
Sold my tech for these and happy so far
Please note oil:
Which is now well above the 40USD which I consider its target/normal price...[and well above what could be just a follow up of the USD relative fall].
Bull oil?
 
about oil:

so basically 2 years of TD returns in the space of a night for what is not exactly a penny stock..., no surprise people are ready to play/gamble in the market
 

Yes, silver badly lagged gold and was a buy simply on the degree of lag. It may well catch up now.





Mr Rederob was right but early on gold. Silver will provide more downside protection and give more bang for the buck on upside, if, it is a new PM bull market. I'm not totally convinced, but anyway, it is what it is.

jog on
duc
 
So the market (as sectors) looked like this:



We have a bit of a rotation going on.

TSLA meanwhile:



Yesterday would have been the day to put the position on. Always in hindsight can you get the perfect entry.

jog on
duc
 


So we had a twitch of vol. to the close. I'm expecting an uptick.



We still can have an up day tomorrow, but then we will hit that resistance point.



The 50 is diverging, which can indicate the rotation. However it can also be a warning of weakness ahead. Given the proximity of the 20 to resistance, I'm thinking weakness tomorrow or a mixed sector response which might make for a no change market overall.



QQQ's are a real mixed message. Sectors other than the big FAANGs are moving higher, the big guys are having a bit of a rotation.

jog on
duc

 

Financially Tesla isn't investment worthy; yet there are so many emotional and sticky investors that are willing to buy and hold the stock.

I think that it is likely, over the long term that Tesla will be


Apparently there is a national coin shortage in the USA now. People are hoarding coins for the metal content, rather than taking the coins into the bank.
 
Yeah whenever the market thinks things are returning to normal/rotates out of tech, it's energy that really bounces.
 


I'm indifferent to TSLA. Simply a trade for me. If it is held in 1 of my ETFs, so be it.

Re. coins: I'm not a buyer of gold at this level. Silver was more interesting, but I have enough (I hope).

jog on
duc
 
over9k said:
Yeah whenever the market thinks things are returning to normal/rotates out of tech, it's energy that really bounces.
Click to expand...

I like energy. No way is 'green' even close to sufficient currently.

jog on
duc
 


Rotation out today. Will see if it continues, or simply a short term thing.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
I'm indifferent to TSLA. Simply a trade for me. If it is held in 1 of my ETFs, so be it.

Re. coins: I'm not a buyer of gold at this level. Silver was more interesting, but I have enough (I hope).

jog on
duc
Click to expand...

I am trying not to comment on Tesla; my personal view is that Tesla has an enormous challenge in fighting to keep their market share, particularly in Europe and China.

On precious metals; I bought a few more kilos a couple of weeks ago; and will continue to accumulate in physical and ETFs. I also have exposure to silver in some junior miners where silver makes up around 30% of their forecast/expected revenue. I personally believe that silver is going to run well above the 2011 levels.
 

Of course there will be competition:

EV investor craze continues. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw its market cap surge past $300 billion and investors are piling into other EV makers. Tesla’s shares have more than tripled this year. The market value of Nikola Corp. (NASDAQ: NKLA), an electric truck startup, past Ford (NYSE: F) last month, although the company’s stock has since retreated. The trend shows that investors increasingly believe that EV era will arrive faster than previously thought. Carmakers are rushing to capture a slice of the future, with GM (NYSE: GM) recently announcing that it will develop 20 new EV models by 2023. Including hybrids, the global auto industry will add 350 new models in the next few years.

jog on
duc
 
Yes this is something I've been spending a lot of time on lately: The next tesla.

By that I mean that if we assume electric vehicles are the next big thing, are the legacy automakers the ones to buy, is another new EV maker like nikola the place to go for, or what. As an extension of that, how long before we get an electric vehicle ETF.

Energy is the only other sector I'm focusing on other than my tech portfolio as the two seem to be almost perfectly opposed, which makes total sense with just 5 seconds of thought about it. One is about movement, the other is about stopping its necessity.
 
A pure EV play that I will go for is 2 wheeler scooter makers; because I see the rapid rise in China and the European PIGS.

If I had to make a prediction: Tesla market share will get eaten up by the European juggernauts; also Europeans tend to like European made cars.
 
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