LOL GB you ever get the feeling you are going mad?
Will the market returns be different in Chicago compared to LA although its the same market
Heat can cause one to go troppo.
Good question, but in the results section (after the references) you'll see that New York was the only US city included. I realize people from all over the world trade on the NYSE, but they were just looking for sun:return correlation, no more than that. A better study would be to look at an averaged world weather sunniness and compare that to the MSCI world index.
OMFG you are serious!
by changes in solar activity. I have some trouble accepting it myself. But every once in a while, it can be worthwhile to take a look at a wild idea just to see if there is any merit to it. The evidence here seems to be strong enough to demonstrate that there is something going on there, even if it is not good enough to figure out how to make money off of it.
heaps of research on this by respected names, the RBS paper on moon cycles (also tested by marketsci) being the most famous.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/are_traders_really_just_driven_by_the_sun/
I recommend googling "mcoscillator sunspots" if you wish to see his other research on the topic.
Also, this
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40271/
Correlation does not imply causation
Correlation does not imply causation
Fair enough. I also note that Suncorp (ASX:SUN) has vastly outperformed Cloud Peak Energy Inc (NYSE: CLD)... further supporting the notion that trading the sun is a valid strategy.
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so what's the basis for your derision?
The more I see people chasing the key to crack the code the more I feel like retreating to my own cave. One where I can go about improving my trading skills and leave the 2 bob hopefuls to fanciful dreams of finding the easy way to one day becoming profitable.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
Problem is though Sinner that there is a plethora of "research papers" on all sorts of edges. Until one goes about actually forward testing they mean nothing, just like every other two bob backtest. Forward test is the traders 'peer review". This one clearly fails the common sense test. What does sunny days in NYC got to do with what the futs traders are doing/thinking in cloudy Chicago?
I reckon could it actually make sense.
Problem is though Sinner that there is a plethora of "research papers" on all sorts of edges. Until one goes about actually forward testing they mean nothing, just like every other two bob backtest. Forward test is the traders 'peer review".
This one clearly fails the common sense test. What does sunny days in NYC got to do with what the futs traders are doing/thinking in cloudy Chicago?
But we think the main practical implication of our findings is somewhat less direct. Our results suggest that investors can benefit from becoming aware of their moods, in order to avoid mood-based errors in their judgments and trades.
Our findings also suggest some broader implications for asset pricing. Sunshine is just one of many influences on mood. In confirming the effect of mood on asset prices, this study suggests that other mood effects may be important. For example, as discussed in Section I, negative moods tend to stimulate effort at careful analysis, whereas positive moods are associated with less critical and more receptive information processing.
How can the sun shinning in a city where the majority of traders DO NOT live have an effect on them?
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